Speculation: Ferland and his future with the Canes

[Drivebytrucker]

The type of money that's being suggested by Ferlands agent is absurd.

I hope the Canes dont give him anywhere north of 5 million....

He's shown hes able to produce when playing with Aho / Turbo and Monahan / Johnnny Hockey. There's lots of semi skilled grinders who could score 20 goals playing with those two...

Let me just say, I love him as a player. But he's not Erik Cole...

 

[A Star is Burns]

It's tough. He's good on the first line, but didn't seem as effective taken off that line. But with our forward depth, it's hard to draw definitive conclusions to that.

 

[emptyNedder]

So, if you are going to trade valuable assets to get a pending UFA, why would you make that trade unless you thought you were going to be able to sign that person? It makes no sense.

I have given this a lot of thought. To answer it I have to play ersatz psychologist.

Dundon was praised for being different, for shaking up the old boys club. Many of us were the ones doing the praising by saying things like the Canes were a playoff team if only the culture would change and the management wouldn't be overly loyal. So all loyalty went out the window--Francis, Peters, Chuck K. Then TD went after players who were part of the Canes culture--players who had spent their entire career as Canes: Ward, Hanifin, Lindholm, Skinner. We all said--yeah, things need changing. Hamilton was the only piece in the trade that mattered. The team that gets the best player always wins a trade is the type of thing that a new to the sport owner likes to hear. Basically Ferland was an afterthought. It is really hard to pay an afterthought, even if he has become a fan favorite, the same amount for which you forced out two younger players. TD wants to be the disruptor. Plenty of owners have been willing to pay for success. Winning while keeping expenses down is disruption--moving Hanifin and Lindholm saved $3M. It proves the Canes needed disrupting. Paying more is just becoming like the other owners who never accepted the new, smarter guy. We have created our own Frankenstein monster.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I have given this a lot of thought. To answer it I have to play ersatz psychologist.

Dundon was praised for being different, for shaking up the old boys club. Many of us were the ones doing the praising by saying things like the Canes were a playoff team if only the culture would change and the management wouldn't be overly loyal. So all loyalty went out the window--Francis, Peters, Chuck K. Then TD went after players who were part of the Canes culture--players who had spent their entire career as Canes: Ward, Hanifin, Lindholm, Skinner. We all said--yeah, things need changing. Hamilton was the only piece in the trade that mattered. The team that gets the best player always wins a trade is the type of thing that a new to the sport owner likes to hear. Basically Ferland was an afterthought. It is really hard to pay an afterthought, even if he has become a fan favorite, the same amount for which you forced out two younger players. TD wants to be the disruptor. Plenty of owners have been willing to pay for success. Winning while keeping expenses down is disruption--moving Hanifin and Lindholm saved $3M. It proves the Canes needed disrupting. Paying more is just becoming like the other owners who never accepted the new, smarter guy. We have created our own Frankenstein monster.

That's the kind of thing I've been getting at in a way. Maybe he doesn't like the concept of a no trade for a guy like this (just something I'm speculating). Maybe he believes you designate a worth for a player and you don't move off of it. Maybe in his mind there are term limits for non core players. Maybe you truly try to remove emotion out of decisions. And that's just this decision. He's clearly taking out of the ordinary stands on other things like you can buy defense, so draft looking for top end forwards. It may all end up a spectacular failure, but I do enjoy watching it, more than most apparently.

 

[Negan4Coach]

I have given this a lot of thought. To answer it I have to play ersatz psychologist.

Dundon was praised for being different, for shaking up the old boys club. Many of us were the ones doing the praising by saying things like the Canes were a playoff team if only the culture would change and the management wouldn't be overly loyal. So all loyalty went out the window--Francis, Peters, Chuck K. Then TD went after players who were part of the Canes culture--players who had spent their entire career as Canes: Ward, Hanifin, Lindholm, Skinner. We all said--yeah, things need changing. Hamilton was the only piece in the trade that mattered. The team that gets the best player always wins a trade is the type of thing that a new to the sport owner likes to hear. Basically Ferland was an afterthought. It is really hard to pay an afterthought, even if he has become a fan favorite, the same amount for which you forced out two younger players. TD wants to be the disruptor. Plenty of owners have been willing to pay for success. Winning while keeping expenses down is disruption--moving Hanifin and Lindholm saved $3M. It proves the Canes needed disrupting. Paying more is just becoming like the other owners who never accepted the new, smarter guy. We have created our own Frankenstein monster.

I guess that line of reasoning makes sense, but I don't understand why Hamilton would be the focus of the trade- we didnt need him. We have plenty of D. What was needed was for Lindholm to score and play up to his potential. I always saw this trade as bringing in a 20 goal guy, and toughness, both of which were what Dundon said we needed. And an immediate upgrade over Hanafin, with the Flames assuming all the risk of trading solid results for upside, a gamble that already paid off for them.

If I put myself in Dundon's shoes, it sticks in my craw thst Lindholm is tearing it up elsewhere, and if I dont sign Ferland, then I lose the trade. And if I'm an afficionado of usury, I probably dont want to be seen as a hump who the other owners can get over on.

 

[AD Skinner]

Aficionado of usury is a great album title

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

NHLPA hat might be a good omen. He could take less AAV/term if it means getting a lockout proof contract.

If we make the playoffs, then we can say, "We're a playoff team that guarentees you a top line spot with a 90 point center, which other playoff team will do that", plus extra revenue, plus giving Dundon no excuse to not open the pocket book. Miss the playoffs and I can't see it happening.

 

[GoldiFox]

If I were the NHLPA it seems like good move to send out nice hats to all pending free agents on the off chance they might wear it in situations like that.

 

[zman77]

Micheal Ferland as a complementary third for Aho’s line
by Matt Karash | Jan 15, 2019 | Daily Cup of Joe
Early in the season, Aho’s line was clicking with Ferland on the left side and leading the team in goal scoring. A layoff due to injury and an odd delay by Brind’Amour in returning Ferland to Aho’s line broke the run, but a recent return of Ferland to that line has seen a massive scoring surge. At a basic level, Ferland is a power forward who can put the puck in the net. That fits reasonably well on any line. But I think a deeper dive on Ferland’s skill set yields a couple other subtle but significant parts of his skill set.
First and foremost, I think key to Ferland meshing well with Aho and Teravainen is the fact that Ferland is the type of player whose game does not require him to have the puck. In fact, he is most product playing without the puck and just receiving to finish. This skill set is somewhat unique among scoring forwards. Many are most productive making plays with the puck on their stick. This is certainly true for Aho and is also largely true for Teravainen. So adding a third forward who is at his best playing with the puck on his stick could be a bit of a mismatch.
Second is that Ferland rates highly for receive/finish ability. Yes, Ferland is a power forward who can go to the net and create havoc and/or score goals from the crease area. But equally significantly and what separates him from McGinn and other players who can bring a physical forechecking element, Ferland has proven to have the sniper type skills to convert shooting opportunities to goals.
Carolina Hurricanes odds and ends | Canes & Coffee

 

[My Special Purpose]

I know it's a cliché, but it takes two to tango.

Look, Ferland wants to be a UFA because everybody wants to be a UFA. I get it. But there are other considerations. If he likes it here, and he's a family guy who sure seems to like it here, he's got to know it's possible he's traded of he draws a hard line in the sand. And since he has no trade protection, it could be Ottawa or Edmonton or Arizona or someplace far away, that he really doesn't like. I don't know what his personal opinions of various orgs, but he's got no control over where he plays between now and July 1. He's also dealing with a concussion that has kept him out significant time. Plus, the way he plays leaves him susceptible to all types of injuries.

I think this is the impetus behind the "going to have to trade him" talk. I honestly don't think he wants that and Dundon is trying to squeeze him a bit.

 

[TheBigKahuna]

The type of money that's being suggested by Ferlands agent is absurd.

I hope the Canes dont give him anywhere north of 5 million....

He's shown hes able to produce when playing with Aho / Turbo and Monahan / Johnnny Hockey. There's lots of semi skilled grinders who could score 20 goals playing with those two...

Let me just say, I love him as a player. But he's not Erik Cole...

So, who do you replace him with for less than 5 million?

Solid answers and options only please. Must be a 20 goal scorer.

 

[Svechnicanes]

I'm 100% behind pushing to keep Ferland on the team. He's a piece of the puzzle this team has been missing since I started attending games regularly in 2011. I get the reservations but the risk is worth the reward. I'm hoping GM by committee feels the same way.

As an aside, listened to TSN at noon and they were raving over Ferland as the fix for the Leafs. I really hope that doesn't come to pass, and if it does it better be a huge haul.

 

[MinJaBen]

As an aside, listened to TSN at noon and they were raving over Ferland as the fix for the Leafs. I really hope that doesn't come to pass, and if it does it better be a huge haul.

So according to Leaf fans: Zaitsev, Brown and a 2nd.

 

[Svechnicanes]

So according to Leaf fans: Zaitsev, Brown and a 2nd.

I sometimes do wonder if the echo chamber can create an illusion of value. It clearly had on these boards, but I wonder how GM DoobieBrothers feels.

 

[SaskCanesFan]

A lot of good posts in this thread that I agree with. I think Kev said it the best though, if the team is planning to be competitive in any way, then Ferland needs to be a part of that plan, there's no way around it.

Say the Canes and Ferland are $3m apart. So what? If that money needs to be saved because it's marked to Duchene or Tarasenko, then fine. But does anyone actually believe thats the case, or will that money simply go back into Dundons pocket. Posturing about a couple million from a team at the salary floor is laughable.

It is possible that Ferland just doesn't want to be here, sure. But after the BS of the team complaining that Hanifin and Lindholm had to be traded because negotiations were too tough (in June for RFAs, really?), then signing fairly in Calgary, I have zero reason to believe what they're leaking out. They either badly lowballed, or just wanted a change no matter what. Which is fine, but own up to it. I could really do without the Canes newfound talent of trying to throw players under the bus in media leaks to help their own PR image, and I think most are seeing through it.

If you follow Twitter, Dundon is getting blown up about signing Ferland. The people love him. He brings a toughness we haven't seen since Gleason (and he's tougher), and he also happens to be a talented forward. If Dundon misses on this one, he's gonna have a pissed off fan base. The only acceptable reason is A) He doesn't want to sign here ( I doubt) and/or B) He's got an outrageous ask that can't be negotiated (I also doubt).

Dundon is under a lot of pressure. He better play his cards right, since he's so publically playing the GM role. If these signings don't go well, he won't have a GM to blame it on. DW is a pawn, and everyone knows that.

Good, as there should be. I'm not usually gonna say that teams should make choices based on the fan base. But after all the talk about being willing to spend to win, and the situation the team is in right now, the choice is obvious. Trading away part of the first line in the middle of a playoff push that's desperately needed in an attempt to save a few million sends a sign that winning doesn't matter, and they will deserve the PR disaster that follows. If they seriously try to pull the "we got some good assets back, and McGinn/Poturalski can fill in admirably" garbage I'll f***ing lose it. The goodwill from empty words is gone, time to put up or shut up.

 

[SaskCanesFan]

The type of money that's being suggested by Ferlands agent is absurd.

I hope the Canes dont give him anywhere north of 5 million....

He's shown hes able to produce when playing with Aho / Turbo and Monahan / Johnnny Hockey. There's lots of semi skilled grinders who could score 20 goals playing with those two...

Let me just say, I love him as a player. But he's not Erik Cole...

Do we actually know what his agent is asking, or are we just going off what the Canes say? I'm skeptical.

I've heard Tom Wilson type money. Which at just a shade over $5m doesn't hurt us at all. I'd be fine with 5.5x5, which is a little higher than Wilson, with less term. There ya go.

There's a chance someone wants to give him 7x7 and thats what he's holding out for. But I highly doubt it for a couple reasons. He's less proven than Wilson is, without the Cup, and most around the league scoffed at that deal anyways. I don't think GMs will be crawling over themselves to offer more money to a less proven player. Not to mention other GMs will be paying attention to guys like Lucic dropping off a cliff and massively overpaid, and won't want to be following that.

If Ferland does get traded or go to UFA, I'm expecting the deal he does sign will be more reasonable than most of us guess, and would have been easily manageable for the Canes. Just like the last 2 were. And that'll sting a lot, but I'm preparing for it

 

[My Special Purpose]

Do we actually know what his agent is asking, or are we just going off what the Canes say? I'm skeptical.

I've heard Tom Wilson type money. Which at just a shade over $5m doesn't hurt us at all. I'd be fine with 5.5x5, which is a little higher than Wilson, with less term. There ya go.

There's a chance someone wants to give him 7x7 and thats what he's holding out for. But I highly doubt it for a couple reasons. He's less proven than Wilson is, without the Cup, and most around the league scoffed at that deal anyways. I don't think GMs will be crawling over themselves to offer more money to a less proven player. Not to mention other GMs will be paying attention to guys like Lucic dropping off a cliff and massively overpaid, and won't want to be following that.

If Ferland does get traded or go to UFA, I'm expecting the deal he does sign will be more reasonable than most of us guess, and would have been easily manageable for the Canes. Just like the last 2 were. And that'll sting a lot, but I'm preparing for it

I'm not buying any of the numbers being tossed around. People were tossing around $7 million, $8 million for Nylander like it had become common knowledge that he'd get that much. This is a National Post article from Aug. 31, 2018 that pegs Nylander's value at $45 million, with the only question being over six (to match Pasternak's AAV) or seven years (to match Ehlers'). Nylander ended up at $45 million over 6 years. In other words, it wasn't hard to see where Nylander fit. The holdout was all posturing and a complete waste of time.

They money for Ferland is obvious. He fits where he fits. The problem is the dance it takes to get there.

 

[justafan22]

friedman says oilers/pens/canucks as fits

 

[GoldiFox]

friedman says oilers/pens/canucks as fits

I’d guess the ask would be:
VAN: Gaudette + 1st
EDM: Puljujarvi+
PIT: 1st++

 

[Drivebytrucker]

So, who do you replace him with for less than 5 million?

Solid answers and options only please. Must be a 20 goal scorer.

Ferland has hit 20 goals ONCE in his career.

Ferland is at 0.19 goals per game in his career, Martinook is at 0.12 goals per game playing with way worse talent and less powerplay time.

Why can't I just replace him with Martinook?

 

[TheBigKahuna]

Ferland has hit 20 goals ONCE in his career.

Ferland is at 0.19 goals per game in his career, Martinook is at 0.12 goals per game playing with way worse talent and less powerplay time.

Why can't I just replace him with Martinook?

Dumbest post of the year right there.

I can no longer take anything you say, seriously. I'm not even going to argue with that stupidity.

 

[Drivebytrucker]

Dumbest post of the year right there.

I can no longer take anything you say, seriously. I'm not even going to argue with that stupidity.

When I think of a consistent 20 goal scorer in the NHL, I think of somebody like Mike Hoffman.

Ferland's name doesn't really stand out.

Ferland has the same goals per game as Rask for his career FFS

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Dumbest post of the year right there.

I can no longer take anything you say, seriously. I'm not even going to argue with that stupidity.

Fine, but you can't just handwave away numbers you don't like. Sample size is a thing, and so is recency bias.

When Dundon talks about taking emotion out of decisions, this is precisely the kind of emotion he's talking about.

 

[Unsustainable]

I’d guess the ask would be:
VAN: Gaudette + 1st
EDM: Puljujarvi+
PIT: 1st++

Ferland + Rask for Brassard + 1st + ???

 

[Canes]

I mean I can understand Dundon not wanting to overpay a player, but if he doesn't bring in an equal or better talent to replace that player he better understand no one showing up to games and not give one of his inane, moronic interviews that embarrass the few fans we have left.