Speculation: Ferland and his future with the Canes

[CanesFanBudMan]

Figured it may be a good idea to have a central thread to discuss this rather than it being spread across every other thread.

I think most of us agree he should be signed if we can get him at a reasonable deal and if it doesn't prevent the signing of other core pieces due to internal cap.

Sara Civ seems to think he is gone: Micheal Ferland is looking for a ‘significant’ raise.

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[DougieSmash]

He should choose Carolina over the money though. Lock for first line with Aho/TT in next few years.

 

[Unsustainable]

Pay him

 

[Lempo]

He should choose Carolina over the money though. Lock for first line with Aho/TT in next few years.

I don't know, "I rather hang out with these guys" sounds like a life choice I would make, and I'm not very convinced on the life choices I have made.

 

[TheBigKahuna]

The inner rumblings after this weekend are, that he doesn't want to sign here.

 

[MinJaBen]

The inner rumblings after this weekend are, that he doesn't want to sign here.

What do you mean by "inner rumblings"?

 

[Svechhammer]

He should choose Carolina over the money though. Lock for first line with Aho/TT in next few years.

We should pay the man his money.

He's solidified a legitimate 1st line with Aho and TT. He adds muscle to that line, preventing teams from running our star which allows Aho to operate more freely. And, right, he also has pretty damn good vision (look at the pass to Aho yesterday on the PP for a prime example), and has an ability to find the back of the net. He's worth the money he's looking for, because he gives us something we desperately need and have really been looking for since.... Heck, since Cole was a beast back in the mid-2000s. Guys like him don't grow on trees and you have to hold onto them when you find them.

And all this posturing would make sense for a team that is operating near the cap and has legitimate financial decisions to make, but we're a team barely scraping the cap floor, we have the most cap space in the league by a country mile, and our owner has north of $1.5 billion in the bank. The only financial issue we have is that we want to be cheap, and judging by the reaction to this on social media, the entire fanbase knows it. Dundon will have himself a PR nightmare if he lets Ferland walk for financial reasons.

Give the man his money. And don't be worried about Aho, Svech, goalies, etc for the future, because teams make this work all the time. If Toronto can find a way to make Nylander, Marner, and Tavares work with the roster they already had, we can make what we have work as well. Take care of now, and the future will take care of itself.

 

[TheBigKahuna]

What do you mean by "inner rumblings"?

I think it was Forslund who said something along the lines of "either he's traded before the deadline or walks to test free agency". Like there wasn't a 3rd option. So it's being speculated that he has no intention of signing before July 1st. Or maybe they want us to believe that?; )

 

[CanesFanBudMan]

Wearing the NHLPA hat after games has to mean the negotiations are not going well. That being said we don't know what either the offer or ask has been for either amount or term. I am thinking that on the open market he could probably get about 5.5*7 which probably turns into a bad deal at the end of the contract. I would offer him a max of 5.5*4 (assuming it wont hamstring us with signing other core pieces due to the internal cap). If he wont take that you have to assess where you are at the deadline as making the playoffs (even as an early exit team) is worth more to this franchise than a late first is right now.

If he goes - be it by trade or UFA TD & DW (or newly appointed GM) need to step up in the off-season and find a replacement for him.

 

[Unsustainable]

So we have till the trade deadline to re-sign him

 

[Svechhammer]

I think it was Forslund who said something along the lines of "either he's traded before the deadline or walks to test free agency". Like there wasn't a 3rd option. So it's being speculated that he has no intention of signing before July 1st. Or maybe they want us to believe that?; )

He had his daughter dolled up in Canes gear on his arm during the postgame interview. Not a coincidence that happened given the current conversation going on around him via The Athletic, the N&O, etc. The man wants to stay here, and he's making that clear, we just need to open our wallets a little to make it happen.

 

[Svechhammer]

Wearing the NHLPA hat after games has to mean the negotiations are not going well. That being said we don't know what either the offer or ask has been for either amount or term. I am thinking that on the open market he could probably get about 5.5*7 which probably turns into a bad deal at the end of the contract. I would offer him a max of 5.5*4 (assuming it wont hamstring us with signing other core pieces due to the internal cap). If he wont take that you have to assess where you are at the deadline as making the playoffs (even as an early exit team) is worth more to this franchise than a late first is right now.

If he goes - be it by trade or UFA TD & DW (or newly appointed GM) need to step up in the off-season and find a replacement for him.

In 7 years time, a $5.5m contract will likely look downright reasonable, given the way contracts have been blowing up over the past decade or so. And that money is only going to continue growing as the league develops alternative ways to take in content, via streaming, VR, social media, etc.

Plus, give him the contract and it sends a message to the rest of the league (and more importantly, agents) that we're ready to play ball again. Right now we're the cheap team that makes players pay for their own equipment like sticks and blades. Give someone a contract that might be inflated because we're serious about building something, and suddenly you might see some other players take notice. The same thing happened in baseball when the Nationals signed Jayson Werth from Philly. Overpayment at the time, but agents took notice, and they quickly became a FA destination. We can do the same here.

 

[CanesFanBudMan]

On a positive note I am sure Dundon noticed the arena yesterday. He should be able to tell that if we put a good product on the ice the atmosphere is completely different. Maybe that will help to persuade him to write some checks.

 

[DougieSmash]

I remember Ferland saying in interview after the Winnipeg game that he wants to stay here.

 

[TheBigKahuna]

I don't recall the last time I heard a player say "I can't wait to get the f*** out of here" , with a mic in their face.

Not saying they can't be sincere, but take those comments at face value.

 

[GoldiFox]

Interesting I always hear about these big name agents being a pain.

Ferland: Contracts by Agent | Puckpedia - Highest paid player = Damon Serverson $4.1 million (Ferland #2)
Aho: Contracts by Agent | Puckpedia - Highest paid player = Sami Vatanen $4.8 million (Armia #2, Aho #3)
Teravainen: Contracts by Agent | Puckpedia - Highest paid player = Puljujarvi $3.4 million (Eaves #2, TT #3)

Didn't we bring in Krepelka as a guy to make deals with these agents? Every one of Ferland, Aho, and Teravainen would be their agent's #1 paid player by a significant margin. Canes should have their undivided attention.

If the Canes let Ferland walk because he prices himself out of Carolina's range then I'm very interested to see what he eventually signs for. It would have to be pretty high for me to be glad he won't be on the team next year.

 

[Svechhammer]

I don't recall the last time I heard a player say "I can't wait to get the **** out of here" , with a mic in their face.

Not saying they can't be sincere, but take those comments at face value.

Oh, ok... so now whenever someone says they like it in ______, what they really mean is "I can't wait to get out of ______"

Can we just calm our tits with the tin foil hat stuff? We offer him a deal he wants, he will stay here. He's having a great year playing alongside a future star of the league. He stays here on that line the rest of his career would be prosperous. Oh, and he has a young kid who is probably just starting school, so moving again is probably the last thing he wants to do.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

Pay the man his money. Simple.

I know obviously he wants term and money. Personally, I'd rather go heavy on money and light on term. I think we can find a reasonable term if we swallow a hard salary. In today's world, I think Ferland wants $5.5M for 7 years. Why don't we offer $6.5M for 2 years? In the first option, which is on the high end, he makes $37.5M over 7 years. In the second option, he makes $13M ($24.5M less) but comes out of the contract at 29 and can sign another big deal.

If he proves to not be worth $6.5M over two years, that's fine, he takes a paycut or leaves after 2 years. No big cap repercussions. If he continues to play at a 25G 50P pace for 70 games a year with the same physicality, we can re-up him with a more term and a small paycut, or another 2 year deal. Or we could go crazy and do 1 year, $7.0 M.

 

[GoldiFox]

Tom Wilson $5.2 million x 6 years seems like a near perfect comparable in negotiations for me. Caps bought out Wilson's last 2 years of RFA so call it $5.5-6 million x 4 years and get it signed.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Tom Wilson $5.2 million x 6 years seems like a near perfect comparable in negotiations for me. Caps bought out Wilson's last 2 years of RFA so call it $5.5-6 million x 4 years and get it signed.

What sucks for Ferland is the actual closest UFA comproable is Lucic.

 

[CanesFanBudMan]

Tom Wilson $5.2 million x 6 years seems like a near perfect comparable in negotiations for me. Caps bought out Wilson's last 2 years of RFA so call it $5.5-6 million x 4 years and get it signed.

It really all falls on the internal cap. in order to sign Aho, TT, 2 goalies, some key depth guys, and fill out the rest of the roster we will likely be spending about 6-7 million more than we are now. I think that if we don't lose Staal and/or Rask's contracts we will neither be retaining Ferland nor signing a big name UFA.

 

[GoldiFox]

What sucks for Ferland is the actual closest UFA comproable is Lucic.

Lucic had 600+ NHL games and multiple 20-30 goal, 60+ point seasons under his belt when signing for $6 million x 7 years.
Wilson had ~400 NHL games, a career high of 35 points, and an incredible Playoffs (15P in 21GP) resulting in a Cup prior to his $5.2 x 6 million deal (2 years of RFA bought out).
Ferland will have ~320 NHL games and a career high of 41 points (likely higher this year).

Ferland's agent is probably asking for closer to a Lucic/JVR/Kane-type deal. Agent's job is to maximize contract value. Canes hired guys specifically to manage these negotiations. Their job is to craft a fair and compelling offer and get the deal done. If the Canes plan going in was "This guy only makes $1.75 million so he won't ask for a fair raise" then that plan was destined for failure. Ferland couldn't have done anything more at this point to earn an equitable extension.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

Management said Ferland is the kind of guy who can help change a teams culture.

Our culture is being cheap. Paying him would help change that.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Oh, ok... so now whenever someone says they like it in ______, what they really mean is "I can't wait to get out of ______"

Can we just calm our **** with the tin foil hat stuff? We offer him a deal he wants, he will stay here. He's having a great year playing alongside a future star of the league. He stays here on that line the rest of his career would be prosperous. Oh, and he has a young kid who is probably just starting school, so moving again is probably the last thing he wants to do.

His cautioning on that is no different than assuming that a rich man dresses his daughter in clothes that support daddy means he loves it here.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Lucic had 600+ NHL games and multiple 20-30 goal, 60+ point seasons under his belt when signing for $6 million x 7 years.
Wilson had ~400 NHL games, a career high of 35 points, and an incredible Playoffs (15P in 21GP) resulting in a Cup prior to his $5.2 x 6 million deal (2 years of RFA bought out).
Ferland will have ~320 NHL games and a career high of 41 points (likely higher this year).

Ferland's agent is probably asking for closer to a Lucic/JVR/Kane-type deal. Agent's job is to maximize contract value. Canes hired guys specifically to manage these negotiations. Their job is to craft a fair and compelling offer and get the deal done. If the Canes plan going in was "This guy only makes $1.75 million so he won't ask for a fair raise" then that plan was destined for failure. Ferland couldn't have done anything more at this point to earn an equitable extension.

Fair.

Here’s the issue with the guy they hired for that reason. He FUBARedLindholm and Hanifin’s situation and hasn’t signed Aho yet.

I have zero confidence he, or any of the other dimwits in the front office have any idea what they are doing.