Fan 590's Howard Berger: Contentious debate about draft

[HSHS]

i'm fine with bleeding heart stuff from Oiler fans... but Ranger fans... please. when you are leading the league in spending it's your own fault, you deserve nothing from no one. especially when salary escalation was the staple export out of MSG over the past 10 years.

You are now agruing against yourself about history verses future... please be consistent.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

What a friggin' fallacy that keeps making its way on these boards. We hear again and again . . . oh no, new CBA, my (fill in the blank, Detroit, Philly, Toronto, Calgary, Tampa Bay) will be a glorified AHL team, and those darn Pens, Coyotes and Blackhawks will be the reincarnation of Edmonton in the early 80's . . . excuse me but on both counts. Do any of you seriously buy that any of the top tier teams will lose more than a player perhaps from the powerhouses they have? Or that one of the true bottom feeders will be able to attract anything that will make them immediately competitive with any of the traditional powers, be it last year when this draft was supposed to be based on, or this next year when most of the big contracts have expired anyways.

This is just another example of the greed of big market fans who can not stand that their time at having multiple advantages over everyone else is . . . .somewhat . . .being curtailed. They still will be able to outspend most, just not to the degrees they did. What a friggin' joke this thread and discussion is. The answer is obvious even to those who say otherwise . . . the only reason a team like Detroit, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Colorado, Philly, etc. should have a shot at number one is continued greed of their fans, no basis in logic or reality.

 

[MLH]

Add up points accumulated in the past three years and divide by 10. 5 bonus points for every playoff appearance in the past 3 years. Teams with the lowest number have the most lotto balls, but every team has a shot.

Numbers can be tweaked, but something that factors in overall performance with playoff appearances. Maybe 2 points for 1st round, 3 for 2nd, etc.

 

[HSHS]

Txpd.. I already tried to give him some insight... see like pg 3.

good post though

 

[txpd]

You already got rewarded for sucking. You got Ovechkin.

what does one have to do with the other? because the capitals drafted ovechkin, the maple leafs should get a shot at crosby? how does that work? are you trying to say that because the capitals got crosby they will be a winner next season?

atlanta has kovulchuk and heatley. are you saying they only deserved one of them?

sorry, your logic doesnt work.

 

[txpd]

Txpd.. I already tried to give him some insight... see like pg 3.

good post though

I saw that, but had to add my voice(words) to the mix. i am tired of this idea that the capitals, who were never higher than 8th or 9th in payroll and for just a couple of season are somehow a free spender like Detroit who can carry two $9m goalies at once.

 

[mooseOAK*]

What a friggin' fallacy that keeps making its way on these boards. We hear again and again . . . oh no, new CBA, my (fill in the blank, Detroit, Philly, Toronto, Calgary, Tampa Bay) will be a glorified AHL team, and those darn Pens, Coyotes and Blackhawks will be the reincarnation of Edmonton in the early 80's . . . excuse me but on both counts. Do any of you seriously buy that any of the top tier teams will lose more than a player perhaps from the powerhouses they have? Or that one of the true bottom feeders will be able to attract anything that will make them immediately competitive with any of the traditional powers, be it last year when this draft was supposed to be based on, or this next year when most of the big contracts have expired anyways.

This is just another example of the greed of big market fans who can not stand that their time at having multiple advantages over everyone else is . . . .somewhat . . .being curtailed. They still will be able to outspend most, just not to the degrees they did. What a friggin' joke this thread and discussion is. The answer is obvious even to those who say otherwise . . . the only reason a team like Detroit, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Colorado, Philly, etc. should have a shot at number one is continued greed of their fans, no basis in logic or reality.

Speaking as one big market team fan that has supported a new CBA to help the small market teams, I don't see your logic.

What is past is past and the next draft is going to be after the new CBA when a lot of that advantages big market team s will be gone. And, there could likely be a reveue sharing component that will have money going to the small market teams also. My team my have to strip their franchise of key players in order to get under the cap also which will narrow the competitive gap with the smaller market teams.

 

[Jester]

You are now agruing against yourself about history verses future... please be consistent.

not really... i firmly believe the everyone should get an equal shot... but i'm more accepting of "our situation sux" argument from a team that has had to watch their top-players leave year after year and THAT is the reason they suck as opposed to a team that still has the best player in the world (granting he has to want to play for that to be the case) on their roster and the only reason they've had to suck for 7 years is their own fault.

the reason this is even a consideration is due to the escalation of salaries (which the flyers absolutely participated in) to a dramatic level. however, the big hit in the last CBA started when the Rangers tried to vulture Sakic away from the Avs, which then led to the Lindros and Kariya signings in quick succession.

not to mention the Rangers did a good job at the end of the year accumulating draft picks and young players (though letting Umberger slide away was yet another idiotic move it seems), so in reality they are in EXCELLENT shape going into the new CBA in comparison to a team like, for example, the Maple Leafs that have very little in the way of prospects or draft picks and a team that is full of over-the-hill players.

i mean that's the thing, within a few years under a salary cap the teams that have been weak under the previous system are going to be much much better than some of these older teams that systems are going to take a huge hit because they aren't built to operate with a salary cap that doesn't allow them to fill every hole with UFA's.

the only reason the flyers are in decent shape at all is due to the fact that Clarkie was preparing for this through the draft the last few years so we have guys like Pitkanen, Carter, and Richards to go into the future with...

Young teams with lots of picks and prospects built up over the last few years are in great shape to have a dominant team in the new league. Atlanta for example.

 

[ceber]

I think every team should have a shot at the #1. Weighted lottery, based on an inverse of HF's organizational rankings (http://hockeysfuture.com/orgrankings.php), then subtract balls from teams for each playoff appearance over the last 4 years.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Speaking as one big market team fan that has supported a new CBA to help the small market teams, I don't see your logic.

What is past is past and the next draft is going to be after the new CBA when a lot of that advantages big market team s will be gone. And, there could likely be a reveue sharing component that will have money going to the small market teams also. My team my have to strip their franchise of key players in order to get under the cap also which will narrow the competitive gap with the smaller market teams.

You missed my point? I was not particularly subtle. Do you genuinely believe, especially as most big contracts have expired, that your team will be gutted? Lose maybe one player, tops, and not even one in your top 2 or 3.

Do you think that Chicago or Phoenix will add enough to even make the playoffs next year because of the extra 5 or 6 million they may be able to spend? I stand by what I said above, there is no justification for a non-weighted draft or even giving the traditional powers any chance at number one. You will not fall that far, and no bottom feeder will rise that far, next year. Rebut it if you are able.

 

[Jester]

What a friggin' fallacy that keeps making its way on these boards. We hear again and again . . . oh no, new CBA, my (fill in the blank, Detroit, Philly, Toronto, Calgary, Tampa Bay) will be a glorified AHL team, and those darn Pens, Coyotes and Blackhawks will be the reincarnation of Edmonton in the early 80's . . . excuse me but on both counts. Do any of you seriously buy that any of the top tier teams will lose more than a player perhaps from the powerhouses they have? Or that one of the true bottom feeders will be able to attract anything that will make them immediately competitive with any of the traditional powers, be it last year when this draft was supposed to be based on, or this next year when most of the big contracts have expired anyways.

actually... teams are a bit more screwed than that depending on how stupid they were. look at the Avs for example. if Forsberg was back and had a long-term deal from before they would have had something on the order of 30 million between Forsberg, Blake, and Sakic... don't think they wouldn't have been up a creek in quick order?

Toronto has Sundin and Belfour eating up a ton of cash.

it won't be immediate, the big boys will have a year or two of continued dominance (though Tampa will still be just as good) before they start to fail because they have depleted farm systems and due to the hefty contracts they are still carrying, an inability to fill in the gaps in the short term.

so during that gap the "lesser markets" are going to have an opportunity to jump on the market and sign some very good UFA's for contracts that actually work in the new market place, w/out heavy bidding by the big boys. that is instant help. the added plus is that presumably most of these teams have an advantage in prospects coming up and picks in their stash (since the heavy spenders were trading away their picks and prospects under the old CBA with regularity), which will help them to get their houses in order quickly.

the playing field is going to switch to who has the better management teams, which sadly i tend to think the bigger markets tend to have better management in general as well (in many cases that is why they are bigger markets in the first place). however, the big markets will have their hands tied at first, so look out for teams that have smart people running them to make major pushes in the first few years before a new equilibrium develops that is based more on organizational strength top to bottom, than money, which is the case in the NFL.

 

[Hab-a-maniac]

Well the thing about that is, the Caps getting both Ovechkin and then Crosby for one season of mediocrity is a bit unfair and would be quite a lucky break for them. It would be like the Penguins drafting Lemieux, then a lockout year comes and they automatically get to choose Wendel Clark before the next season. Sure, they ended up picking 2nd but I'd have taken Wendel over Craig Simpson any day. It just would seem unfair to teams who've sucked for a lot longer. Besides, even if you fall short of Crosby why be upset? You got Ovechkin and several great prospects all around anyway.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Well the thing about that is, the Caps getting both Ovechkin and then Crosby for one season of mediocrity is a bit unfair and would be quite a lucky break for them. It would be like the Penguins drafting Lemieux, then a lockout year comes and they automatically get to choose Wendel Clark before the next season. Sure, they ended up picking 2nd but I'd have taken Wendel over Craig Simpson any day. It just would seem unfair to teams who've sucked for a lot longer. Besides, even if you fall short of Crosby why be upset? You got Ovechkin and several great prospects all around anyway.

The Caps, even if they use 2003-4 standings, same draft system, would have under a 15% chance at Crosby. People forget that they had a fair chance, not a good chance, at AO and lucked out. It would take some mean luck indeed for lightening to strike twice. If it happened? . . . So what, how is that worse than Tampa Bay or Toronto ending up with him. At least the Caps legitimately suck.

 

[Jester]

Who made you judge and jury buddy?Look at the point totals,the numbers don't lie.Most Ranger fans knows their franchise has been poorly run for years.You are not telling us something we don't know.Want do you want to do?Take the standings from the past 3-4 years but exclude the Rangers.Get off you soapbox Or give the Flyers a top five draft pick.They don't spend money.Comcast prints money

I love been lectured by a Flyer fan about spending money

i wasn't saying remove the rangers from any equation (i think that is unfair towards anyone... if they do the three years thing, both Calgary and Tampa should be treated exactly the same as anyone else). i just don't buy the rangers "deserve" something in return for absolutely mismanaging their team the last few years, escalating the salary structure in the NHL seemingly without care, and everything else.

that being said, Crosby in NYC would be very good for the NHL...

i'm not saying give the flyers a top five draft pick, i'm saying give the flyers a 1/30 shot at a draft pick. the league as it was no longer exists, thus we shouldn't base the draft on the new world order on the way it was before.

actually given our two teams track records and the relative intelligence of how they spend their money... rangers can get lectured about spending money by the flyers.

ps - thanks for not "spending money" on Umberger.

 

[hockeytown9321]

The teams that made the playoffs in 2004 don't exist as they did back then any more. Who is to say which team is a "top team" any more?

On the other side, why should the bottom dwellers receive special treatment because they sucked two seasons ago?

Hey, we finally agree on something.

All last summer, all I heard about was how the Red Wings were in decline. But since the draft order debate has come up, everyone wants to put them at #30. It don't make no sense.

 

[Hab-a-maniac]

<At least the Caps legitimately suck.>
Yeah, but with Ovechkin, Crosby and their top ranking of prospects, not for much longer. I'm not debating this thing, I don't want an open draft or a Free agency grab even if it might benefit my team. It's only fair that these lower ranked teams get compensation. The argument that it should be open to everyone because one day the top ranked teams will fall below is kinda silly. So what? Let the LEafs decline and suck. They shouldn't have the chance to acquire Crosby just because they have a shaky future.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

<At least the Caps legitimately suck.>
Yeah, but with Ovechkin, Crosby and their top ranking of prospects, not for much longer. I'm not debating this thing, I don't want an open draft or a Free agency grab even if it might benefit my team. It's only fair that these lower ranked teams get compensation. The argument that it should be open to everyone because one day the top ranked teams will fall below is kinda silly. So what? Let the LEafs decline and suck. They shouldn't have the chance to acquire Crosby just because they have a shaky future.

Again, even under the 'best' system for the caps, under 15% of a chance. It is unlikely at best that they end up with AO and Crosby, but if so . . . so what, the hockey gods smiled on them. I could stomach that much more than teams with a lot of recent success and strong teams, Tampa Bay, Toronoto, etc. ending up with him. If they suck in a few years, great, they get a high, even a number one pick after they suck. It is really not fair that some of us have to actually suffer through some really bad hockey, and then see a team who has had the playoffs as their right for many years, and who have very strong teams, have the brass balls to demand an equal chance at number one.

 

[Master Shake*]

there is NO WAY that is fair to Tampa and Calgary. they are not the same teams they were a year ago, and will be even different when the next season starts and the UFA's all work themselves out.

people need to get over this whole past three season thing. those seasons are completely irrelevant to the state of the teams going forward in the NHL. something like 50% of the league is going to be some kind of FA on June 1st i believe. a salary cap will be in effect... players are going to move all over the place, it is going to be absolute chaos.

the NHL that was -- as far as players on teams -- no longer exists. the core of teams will be there, but none of the surrounding players and MANY MANY really good FA's will be out there that small clubs will have a very good chance at signing due ot the salary cap restraint on the big markets.

Yes Im sure they will finish last this year.

 

[Tawnos]

Five pages and no one has thought of this idea yet....

Raise the draft age to 19. In other words, don't have a draft at all this year! Next year's draft is business as usual.

Come on, I'd rather the time they spend bickering about this be used to craft a new CBA, or even discuss rule changes. The NHL can live without Crosby for a year.

I'm a big proponent of this, because I think 18 is too young to really evaluate a lot of players (especially goalies). This is why we've seen so many first-round busts. Go back and look at any draft here:
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/index.html
and look at the stats for first rounders. You'll see a lot of guys who never played a game, whereas some later-round choices like, say, Alfredsson, have become stars.

This punishes the teams who scout well and are able to grab these late-round gems (like Ottawa) but it's another way to level the playing field. Isn't that what a draft is supposed to do?

No can do. That leaves Crosby open to just decide to sign whereever he wants when he turns 18. And if the league tries to block him, they'll get sued on age discrimination so fast it'll make Fedorov look like Ulanov. You cannot prevent an adult in the US from making a living the best way he knows how, and 18 is an adult.

 

[Chileiceman]

No can do. That leaves Crosby open to just decide to sign whereever he wants when he turns 18. And if the league tries to block him, they'll get sued on age discrimination so fast it'll make Fedorov look like Ulanov. You cannot prevent an adult in the US from making a living the best way he knows how, and 18 is an adult.

Doesn't the NFL have some sort of age restriction?

 

[HabsoluteFate]

Being a habs fan i'd want the undrafted players to become free agents...but honestly...it will not happen.
I've been hearing things about averaging the last X number of seasons...totally unfair as well because of teams such as Calgary, Tampa Bay or Atlanta who have been on the rise....
here's what I would recommend instead....make the latest season worth more weight when trying to average points out...this would take into account where a team has been over the last 5 years....
in this example:
A=Points 5 years ago
B=Points 4 years ago
C=Points 3 years ago
D=Points 2 years ago
E=Points 1 year ago
Team's "Predicted" points in the cancelled season would be something like:
P=((E*20)+(D*15)+(C*8)+(B*3)+A)/47
The numbers above and the number of years could be changed of course...
I would figure out the standings based on these numbers but i'm having a hard time just getting the standings for the last 5 years for just one team...anyone know a site where i can get such information? NHL.com and all the other major sites seem to suck

 

[Jaded-Fan]

By the way, let me play devils advocate.

OK, let us say you are right, your beloved big market team is gutted, becomes an AHL caliber team and the meek inherit the earth, Phoenix is battling Chicago for the President's Trophy next year . . . ummm excuse me . . . . . . ummm, sorry, where was I . . . oh, yes, Chicago and Phoenix battling it out at around 120 points or so, and Toronto and Tampa Bay in a death battle for the bottom, and next year's best shot at number one.

Why should Tampa Bay or Toronto perhaps end up with Crosby and next year's phenom? Isn't this the complaint big market fans throw out there to justify their greedy grab, but in reverse?

 

[HSHS]

not really... i firmly believe the everyone should get an equal shot... but i'm more accepting of "our situation sux" argument from a team that has had to watch their top-players leave year after year and THAT is the reason they suck as opposed to a team that still has the best player in the world (granting he has to want to play for that to be the case) on their roster and the only reason they've had to suck for 7 years is their own fault.

the reason this is even a consideration is due to the escalation of salaries (which the flyers absolutely participated in) to a dramatic level. however, the big hit in the last CBA started when the Rangers tried to vulture Sakic away from the Avs, which then led to the Lindros and Kariya signings in quick succession.

not to mention the Rangers did a good job at the end of the year accumulating draft picks and young players (though letting Umberger slide away was yet another idiotic move it seems), so in reality they are in EXCELLENT shape going into the new CBA in comparison to a team like, for example, the Maple Leafs that have very little in the way of prospects or draft picks and a team that is full of over-the-hill players.

i mean that's the thing, within a few years under a salary cap the teams that have been weak under the previous system are going to be much much better than some of these older teams that systems are going to take a huge hit because they aren't built to operate with a salary cap that doesn't allow them to fill every hole with UFA's.

the only reason the flyers are in decent shape at all is due to the fact that Clarkie was preparing for this through the draft the last few years so we have guys like Pitkanen, Carter, and Richards to go into the future with...

Young teams with lots of picks and prospects built up over the last few years are in great shape to have a dominant team in the new league. Atlanta for example.

I agree with these two points:

-Rangers pain doesn't equal Edm pain

-TML type teams are going to have less prospects cause of the way they have won in the past. That's the way it is supposed to work.

My belief is that there has to be a happy medium (actually everyone will be unhappy but 1). We have 2 unknowns: the 2004-05 season results and the future given the CBA. Both need to be considered. But just cause you have less prospects now doesn't mean the "system" needs to be set up so you preempt the future failure of the TML type teams.... let them prove they suck, then get the picks.

 

[Master Shake*]

Somebody is going to get screwed somewhere. So why make it one of the usual recent worst teams instead of the statisically average recent best?

But the bottom line is, Somebody is going to get screwed. So go with the usual odds.

 

[mooseOAK*]

By the way, let me play devils advocate.

OK, let us say you are right, your beloved big market team is gutted, becomes an AHL caliber team and the meek inherit the earth, Phoenix is battling Chicago for the President's Trophy next year . . . ummm excuse me . . . . . . ummm, sorry, where was I . . . oh, yes, Chicago and Phoenix battling it out at 120 points, and Toronto and Tampa Bay in a death battle for the bottom, and next year's best shot at number one.

Why should Tampa Bay or Toronto perhaps end up with Crosby and next year's phenom? Isn't this the complaint big market fans throw out there to justify their greedy grab, but in reverse?

I don't mean to get in the way of you patting your back at your own wittiness but Phoenix and Chicago may very well be closer to competing for the playoffs than they were last season with a new CBA landscape. Therefore their right to more charity is gone as far as I am concerned.