Speculation: Expansion draft protected list

HockeyinHD

Semi-retired former active poster.
Jun 18, 2006
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If true, that's a pretty huge flaw. In a capped league you have to be able to valuate players better than this.

So, generally speaking, what kind of return do teams get with 3.8-4.25 mil AAVs in the UFA market at forward?

Serious question. If Holland is going to be ripped for spending so awfully with Helm (to a greater degree) and Abdelkader (to a lesser degree), then what is the context within which those signings should be viewed?

In giving multi-years in those ranges a once-over, we're looking for best case scenarios of point totals in the 40's, for the guys with offensive chops. There are also a ton of really underwhelming deals in that range, too. That middle-6 UFA multi-year forward seems like a class of contract that causes all kinds of teams real problems, contract wise.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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So, generally speaking, what kind of return do teams get with 3.8-4.25 mil AAVs in the UFA market at forward?

Serious question. If Holland is going to be ripped for spending so awfully with Helm (to a greater degree) and Abdelkader (to a lesser degree), then what is the context within which those signings should be viewed?

In giving multi-years in those ranges a once-over, we're looking for best case scenarios of point totals in the 40's, for the guys with offensive chops. There are also a ton of really underwhelming deals in that range, too. That middle-6 UFA multi-year forward seems like a class of contract that causes all kinds of teams real problems, contract wise.

In the case of Helm, you could pretty easily replace his production with a guy on an ELC. Instead of having to resort to another 3.8-4.25 AAV UFA. And you really can't even play the intangibles card with him anymore. Because he's mostly a winger, isn't a top 2 PK'er, and doesn't even really hit anymore. So at this point he's a fast and injury prone 3rd line winger that is mediocre offensively.

Abdelkader is on pace for an 8 goal, 30 pt season. If he rebounds next year to being a 20/20 guy that deal is solid, but I'm not sure that happens now that Pavel isn't around to play the piano for him. And 7 years was just ridiculous term to give out.
 

HockeyinHD

Semi-retired former active poster.
Jun 18, 2006
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In the case of Helm, you could pretty easily replace his production with a guy on an ELC.

Enh. He's a center who wins faceoffs, PKs well, and has speed. Guys who have none of those talents and also produce as much (little?) as Helm does were making 2+ as UFAs.

Because he's mostly a winger, isn't a top 2 PK'er, and doesn't even really hit anymore.

A) He seems to play nearly a majority of his ES time as the center, on the season.
B) He's the... #3 pker at forward? Is that an indictment instead of being top 2?
C) Hits/g by year. 1.8, 1.5, 1.5. Ott hit more this year, with Abby and Glendening have more in the past 3 years.

The Helm deal is the least defensible of the two, obviously, but if he puts up his usual 13-13 line it's not much of an overpay in the context of UFA deals signed around him. An overpay, probably. An overpay upon which is formed a revolution? Probably not.

Also, if you suspect you're going to have dmen who struggle on the PK, investing more in having stronger pking forwards might have played a role here, too.

Abdelkader is on pace for an 8 goal, 30 pt season. If he rebounds next year to being a 20/20 guy that deal is solid, but I'm not sure that happens now that Pavel isn't around to play the piano for him. And 7 years was just ridiculous term to give out.

A) The term drove down the AAV, though. We know this. The deals were either what he signed or a 5/~25mil... which would have walked him right into the over-35 zone and made a second multi-year more fraught. The gamble was that Abdelkader would be healthy since he'd missed a total of 24 or so games over the past 5 years before the deal. Whoopsies.

B) Abdelkader played barely 20% of his ES time with Datsyuk last year and less than 30% of his ES time with him the year before. Abdelkader appears once (on the second most used) line combo among selections with a frequency greater than 1.19% in 15-16, and only twice in 14-15. He played some with Datsyuk, for sure... but not very much at all.
 

WingedWheel1987

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Jan 11, 2011
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The term drove down AAV? lol it sure doesn't look like length of contract brought down his cap hit.

Troy Brouwer had a far better resume than Gator and he got a four year deal at 4.5 million a season, and Brouwer turned 30 the year his contract kicked in.

Matt Beleksey who is younger than Gator got a five year/3.8 million cap hit contract.

No team was going to pay Gator five million a season. His resume prior to averaging almost 20 minutes a night while being spoon fed first unit PP time with Z and D was straight up abysmal. Let's not forget that Holland gave Gator that contract in November. So it's even more laughable that he got so much from just one season where he put up 40+ points.

Gator's cap hit is max term and max cap hit.

Indefensible.

Gator isn't going to go back to being a 40 point winger. Wings don't have enough talent to carry him.

Helm's deal is a joke too for soooooooo many reasons.

The 2016-2017 DRW are the culmination of Holland valuing loyalty over actual on ice performance. Making the easy/wrong decision instead of the right/hard decision.
 
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WFIAA

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Aug 2, 2016
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Enh. He's a center who wins faceoffs, PKs well, and has speed. Guys who have none of those talents and also produce as much (little?) as Helm does were making 2+ as UFAs.



A) He seems to play nearly a majority of his ES time as the center, on the season.
B) He's the... #3 pker at forward? Is that an indictment instead of being top 2?
C) Hits/g by year. 1.8, 1.5, 1.5. Ott hit more this year, with Abby and Glendening have more in the past 3 years.

The Helm deal is the least defensible of the two, obviously, but if he puts up his usual 13-13 line it's not much of an overpay in the context of UFA deals signed around him. An overpay, probably. An overpay upon which is formed a revolution? Probably not.

Also, if you suspect you're going to have dmen who struggle on the PK, investing more in having stronger pking forwards might have played a role here, too.



A) The term drove down the AAV, though. We know this. The deals were either what he signed or a 5/~25mil... which would have walked him right into the over-35 zone and made a second multi-year more fraught. The gamble was that Abdelkader would be healthy since he'd missed a total of 24 or so games over the past 5 years before the deal. Whoopsies.

B) Abdelkader played barely 20% of his ES time with Datsyuk last year and less than 30% of his ES time with him the year before. Abdelkader appears once (on the second most used) line combo among selections with a frequency greater than 1.19% in 15-16, and only twice in 14-15. He played some with Datsyuk, for sure... but not very much at all.

Abby got hurt around 10-12 games in back to back years leading up to the contract extension. With his age and style of play, I don't consider that a fluke. And as he gets older it's going to happen more and more.

And while that may be true that he didn't play a ton with Dats (I'm too lazy to verify your numbers), he was stapled to Hank. That is going to boost most players production (Sheahan being the obvious exception). The deal was two years too long and 1 mil per too much.
 
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Bench

3 is a good start
Aug 14, 2011
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The term drove down AAV? lol it sure doesn't look like length of contract brought down his cap hit.

It doesn't LOOK like it, but I bet he's right. I bet Holland did massage out a lower cap hit from Abdelkader in exchange for maximum UFA years.

Which is ridiculous and deserves ridicule.
 

jkutswings

hot piss hockey
Jul 10, 2014
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It doesn't LOOK like it, but I bet he's right. I bet Holland did massage out a lower cap hit from Abdelkader in exchange for maximum UFA years.

Which is ridiculous and deserves ridicule.
The other aspect in all of this is "death by a thousand cuts".

Say, for the sake of argument, that Helm is only slightly bad value. And that Abdelkader is just a tad on the bad side of the books.

Add in the Weiss buyout, and the value you're getting from Kronwall and Ericsson these days, and that Franzen is a perpetual LTIR, and that Howard can't stay healthy, etc.

No ONE thing by itself is a killer. But that's quite a collection in sum total.
 

Bench

3 is a good start
Aug 14, 2011
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No ONE thing by itself is a killer. But that's quite a collection in sum total.

It doesn't take Sherlock Holmes to figure out the cause of death. The team is pressed against the cap and isn't paying a single elite player.
 

Winger98

Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
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It doesn't LOOK like it, but I bet he's right. I bet Holland did massage out a lower cap hit from Abdelkader in exchange for maximum UFA years.

Which is ridiculous and deserves ridicule.

eh, that's not massaging out a lower number, that's blinking and not grasping what the actual market would be for the guy. either way, as you said, ridiculous/ridicule.

The right move for both of these guys would have been to deal them off at their respective TDLs and move on.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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A) The term drove down the AAV, though. We know this. The deals were either what he signed or a 5/~25mil... which would have walked him right into the over-35 zone and made a second multi-year more fraught. The gamble was that Abdelkader would be healthy since he'd missed a total of 24 or so games over the past 5 years before the deal. Whoopsies.

Please tell me where Abdelkader's leverage is to ask for more AAV?

Going into the season we gave him the 4.25 million dollar contract for 7 years, his career goal totals were as follows: 3, 7, 8, 10, 10.

His ppg going into that season was .27, or a 22 point pace over 82 games.

And all of a sudden, one season where he cracks 20 goals getting 1st line minutes and 1st PP time... and the guy has all the leverage in the world?

Give me a break. I'd tell him, you're having a great season Justin but you don't have the track record to ask for 7 years or more than 4 million. I mean, is that really an unreasonable stance to take? I don't even know how he got anything else, quite frankly. Kudos to his agent.
 

Winger98

Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
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Looking at the expansion draft tool over at capfriendly and Nick Jensen apparently still has to play six games before we have to protect him in the draft. Shouldn't we just call up McIlrath or whoever, and essentially bench Jensen the rest of the year so we don't have to risk losing him in the draft?

With any luck, he and Sproul would then be exempt, we protect XO, and expose no one of consequence on the backend.
 

Inspiration

Registered User
Jul 10, 2013
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Looking at the expansion draft tool over at capfriendly and Nick Jensen apparently still has to play six games before we have to protect him in the draft. Shouldn't we just call up McIlrath or whoever, and essentially bench Jensen the rest of the year so we don't have to risk losing him in the draft?

With any luck, he and Sproul would then be exempt, we protect XO, and expose no one of consequence on the backend.

You are reading the site incorrectly. He needs 6 more games to count towards the experience requirements for exposed defensemen. A certain number of exposed players need to have played 40 games in the prior season or 70 games in the prior two seasons. The Wings aren't going to have any issues meeting those requirements. Jensen is eligible for the expansion draft regardless of the number of games he plays for the rest of the season.
 

silkyjohnson50

Registered User
Jan 10, 2007
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B) Abdelkader played barely 20% of his ES time with Datsyuk last year and less than 30% of his ES time with him the year before. Abdelkader appears once (on the second most used) line combo among selections with a frequency greater than 1.19% in 15-16, and only twice in 14-15. He played some with Datsyuk, for sure... but not very much at all.

If he wasn't with Datsyuk he was with Zetterberg, so you're basically splitting hairs.

In fact, here are the forwards he played with the most at even strength during the 4 seasons that led up to the contract:

Zetterberg: 2085 minutes
Datsyuk: 1079 minutes
Nyquist: 794 minutes

So if he wasn't with 1A he was attached to 1B. The reality though is that he's not a top scoring line level player and the length of his contract is a laugher.
 

Winger98

Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
22,837
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You are reading the site incorrectly. He needs 6 more games to count towards the experience requirements for exposed defensemen. A certain number of exposed players need to have played 40 games in the prior season or 70 games in the prior two seasons. The Wings aren't going to have any issues meeting those requirements. Jensen is eligible for the expansion draft regardless of the number of games he plays for the rest of the season.

ugh, thanks. My mistake.
 

BinCookin

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Feb 15, 2012
6,160
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Expansion Question

So lets say this is how we protect our Forwards:

1) Neilsen (NMC)
2) Zetterberg (Ya i know he is old and unlikely to be picked, but risking the recapture is high, and i think Holland protects him, so realistically he is probably protected)
3) Nyquist
4) Tatar
5) Mantha
6) AA

This leaves 1 Spot: (Larkin=Exempt)

ASSUMING the above list is right:

Who is #7 (who do you protect?)

Abdelkader or Helm.

(Not just who is better, maybe also who is more likely to be claimed? If you are a hope to lose one of these contracts type person)

probably exposed for sure:
Sheahan
Glendening
Miller
 

One Blurred Eye

Prefer the future.
Sep 27, 2014
287
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Helm's contract is less an albatross in both hit and term, he's ideally a 3/4 centerman, might still carry a bit of that "best third line center in the league" luster from bygone days, could be easier for Vegas to flip him in the nearish future at a trade deadline for a pick/prospect, being teams with aspirations to cup runs usually are looking for the kind of center depth role Helm could fill. Any number-crunching moneyballers on their staff might like his penchant for drawing penalties and winning more draws than he loses (lot of good that did us this year though). Injury history will give pause.

Abdelkader's label says pro-sumer power forward with grit and fists and leadershipy stuff, which might entice a new franchise looking for a piece of kit that all the good teams seem to have, despite the "from now until the end of time" contract but again the contract, and like most pro-sumer stuff you'll just end up wishing you'd saved for the professional grade version while selling your overpriced, underpowered merch at a steep loss on eBay a year or two later (or in our case, putting him out on the curb with a "free" sign). Even if their aim is just to make sure they hit the cap floor, the difference between their respective AAVs probably isn't enough for Vegas to tether themselves to that endless contract, which they'd largely get the uglier side of, without much hope of moving him (without paying a premium to do so anyway). Unlike some #8s in the league right now, ours needs much better players than Vegas is likely to have to make him anything near remotely effective in a top-six role (whereas Helm has a more definable individual effect on the ice I think, at least in his ideal role).

My guess then is Helm is the more likely of the two to be picked up if exposed, so if you'd want to lose one of them I suppose he's the one to leave unprotected. Personally I'd be happier to lose Abdelkader (or his contract at least), but I just can't see LV taking on such burden. They'll have better short-term options to reach the floor if needs be, without binding themselves for five years to a player destined to age poorly.

On a tangent while looking at their numbers, I noticed Abdelkader, up through the last lockout season, took (and won) a significant number of faceoffs, but the last five seasons he's barely taken any (presumably only taking them after someone got chased from the dot, and without much success). What happened? Was he just one of those hand-pass cheaters with a diploma from Draper's Faceoff Cheating Academy, made ineffective by the new hand-pass rule? Seems to fit the facts but I don't remember well enough if that was the case...
 

Winger98

Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
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Cleveland
I protect Sheahan. I think it's unlikely one of Helm/Gator get picked regardless, and if they do, we lose a poor contract. Sheahan's deal isn't as bad and the ability to play 3C is still there, despite the lousy season. We also have Z, Nielsen, and Larkin in our lineup who could play center, and Glendening could move up if really pressed for it.
 

ricky0034

Registered User
Jun 8, 2010
15,053
7,274
I protect Sheahan. I think it's unlikely one of Helm/Gator get picked regardless, and if they do, we lose a poor contract. Sheahan's deal isn't as bad and the ability to play 3C is still there, despite the lousy season. We also have Z, Nielsen, and Larkin in our lineup who could play center, and Glendening could move up if really pressed for it.

he's got some trade value too which is more than you can say about Helm/Abdelkader

not a lot i'm sure but there were quite a few teams inquiring about him at the deadline so at the very least it should be a net positive
 

jkutswings

hot piss hockey
Jul 10, 2014
11,036
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What I would do: Protect Sheahan if I think he still has trade value, or Glendening if not.

What will actually happen: At least one, if not both of Helm and Abdelkader will get protected, and the Wheel o' Nonsense keeps turning.
 

njx9

Registered User
Feb 1, 2016
2,161
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I have a hard time imagining Sheahan really has much trade value at this point (a soft inconsistent FO guy with no [current] offensive ability?), but I don't think there's any real point in protecting Glendening, other than that you have to protect someone.
 

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