Player Discussion Evgeny Kuznetsov

[txpd]

Absolutely. That's what a 31 year-old Jason Spezza just signed after 66 and 62 point seasons (and essentially missing the entire lockout year before that). Bobby Ryan, who's essentially a career 50-60 point scorer, has a $7.25M cap hit. Stastny has a $7M contract despite not scoring >60 points since 2010. Tarasenko just signed a $7.5M deal after just one great season.

The only way Kuzy signs for "cheap" (~$6-6.5M) is if he's taking a bridge deal.

none of those players are comparables. Spezza and Stastny were UFA's. Bobby Ryan is a bad contract. He had 4 consecutive seasons of 30+ goals when he got that contract.

 

[Hivemind]

And Tarasenko?

I'll stand by what I said. Looking at other similar forwards, Kuznetsov is going to rake in a fortune if he signs a deal with term.

 

[txpd]

And Tarasenko?

I'll stand by what I said. Looking at other similar forwards, Kuznetsov is going to rake in a fortune if he signs a deal with term.

I don't consider Tarasenko and Kuznetsov at the same level. Would you trade them even up?

I think he has some work to do before he earns a long term deal if you think the only way he signs for term is if he is banking 7m plus.

 

[Atas2000]

I don't consider Tarasenko and Kuznetsov at the same level. Would you trade them even up?

I think he has some work to do before he earns a long term deal if you think the only way he signs for term is if he is banking 7m plus.

I would trade them even up anyday. It basically comes down to team needs. Tarasenko is a scoring winger, Kuznetsov a playmaking center. Aside from that they are on the same level.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I would trade them even up anyday. It basically comes down to team needs. Tarasenko is a scoring winger, Kuznetsov a playmaking center. Aside from that they are on the same level.

I think the side giving away Tarasenko would be much less likely to pull the trigger. At least today...

 

[Atas2000]

I think the side giving away Tarasenko would be much less likely to pull the trigger. At least today...

Obviously, because Tarasenko has more productive seasons in the NHL to show. Trade value is not always exactly what the player is worth as a player as GMs like any manager consider risks too.

 

[OV Rocks]

And Tarasenko?

I'll stand by what I said. Looking at other similar forwards, Kuznetsov is going to rake in a fortune if he signs a deal with term.

I say give him the exact same contract that they gave Backstrom down to the last cent. Comparable player with comparable future. I don't think Kuzy could turn that down, plus the last 4-5 years contract is a pay bump which will be in line with him per age and everything.

 

[twabby]

I say give him the exact same contract that they gave Backstrom down to the last cent. Comparable player with comparable future. I don't think Kuzy could turn that down, plus the last 4-5 years contract is a pay bump which will be in line with him per age and everything.

Can't do that, maximum length contract under the new CBA is 8 years. Backstrom got a 10 year contract.

 

[OV Rocks]

Can't do that, maximum length contract under the new CBA is 8 years. Backstrom got a 10 year contract.

Forgot about that, so slightly less total money, same dollar amounts each year though

 

[txpd]

Backstrom's contract has been a bargain. Still, I am not convinced that Kuznetsov is going to be as good a player as Backstrom is.

 

[twabby]

If Kuznetsov puts up another year like he did last year then he's worth more than $7.0M a year. Obviously I think the Capitals would be thrilled if they could get a long term deal with a lower AAV, but I'm not sure Kuznetsov would go for that.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Backstrom's contract has been a bargain. Still, I am not convinced that Kuznetsov is going to be as good a player as Backstrom is.

I think Kuznetsov can not only match Backstrom but even surpass him (the current post concussion Backstrom). I don't know if he'll be a 100 pt C at his best like Backstrom was in 2010, but that was one hell of an offensive team too with peak Ovechkin, Green and Semin.

 

[txpd]

I think Kuznetsov can not only match Backstrom but even surpass him (the current post concussion Backstrom). I don't know if he'll be a 100 pt C at his best like Backstrom was in 2010, but that was one hell of an offensive team too with peak Ovechkin, Green and Semin.

Its funny. If you asked the coaching staff and the players on the team, they would all say that the best player on the team is Backstrom. Yet we see fans saying that Kuznetsov is somehow better or going to be better.

The Caps have the best pp in the league over Backstrom's career and it runs thru him. With the entire league knowing whats coming he still finds a way to make it happen. His defense is so good that he is several of his coach's preference for matchup and for the last shift of one goal games with a lead.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Its funny. If you asked the coaching staff and the players on the team, they would all say that the best player on the team is Backstrom. Yet we see fans saying that Kuznetsov is somehow better or going to be better.

The Caps have the best pp in the league over Backstrom's career and it runs thru him. With the entire league knowing whats coming he still finds a way to make it happen. His defense is so good that he is several of his coach's preference for matchup and for the last shift of one goal games with a lead.

Backstrom was nowhere near as good defensively when he was Kuznetsov's age. He became a near Selke level forward with age and experience. Kuznetsov has an incredibly high hockey sense, lead the league in primary assists as well as ES assists. He got to 57 assists while being on the 2nd PP and missing out on a lot of assists on Ovechkin's PP goals. He doesn't get to play with Ovechkin at ES either.

Kuznetsov isn't better yet, but he is the way of the future. The league is getting faster every year, and Kuznetsov is considerably faster than Backstrom. Nick's lack of speed is what prevents him from being a perennial top 10 player in the world.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Nick continues to be underrated, even as everyone acknowledges that he's underrated. He's not exactly fleet of foot but he's a maestro on the ice.

 

[Langway]

Backstrom was nowhere near as good defensively when he was Kuznetsov's age.

Backstrom wasn't close to as good defensively at 24 with four seasons under his belt, including even more dominant offensive production than Kuznetsov? I think you're forgetting those peak Boudreau years and just how good Backstrom was pre-Bourque hit. He's still extremely productive, at least in the regular season, but hasn't quite had the same level of dominance all-around and the league has gotten a lot faster.

Kuznetsov is the faster player without question and that's a huge advantage in being able to create 5-on-5. Kuznetsov has made huge strides defensively but he's still not really close when it comes to corner work and one-on-one battles generally.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Backstrom wasn't close to as good defensively at 24 with four seasons under his belt, including even more dominant offensive production than Kuznetsov? I think you're forgetting those peak Boudreau years and just how good Backstrom was pre-Bourque hit. He's still extremely productive, at least in the regular season, but hasn't quite had the same level of dominance all-around and the league has gotten a lot faster.

Kuznetsov is the faster player without question and that's a huge advantage in being able to create 5-on-5. Kuznetsov has made huge strides defensively but he's still not really close when it comes to corner work and one-on-one battles generally.

I meant to say that Backstrom improved a lot defensively between 2010 and today. Kuznetsov hasn't reached his ceiling offensively and improves very quickly defensively. His potential is close to Datsyuk's level in his prime years. PPG productuon with outstanding defense.

I don't care if Kuznetsov never reaches this ceiling, as we will always have Backstrom to rely on, but Kuzy is the way of the future for this team. When Ovechkin declines, he will emerge as our best player.

 

[HecticGlow]

Alternative point of view

Alternative way of looking at the Kuzy problem.

Reading this RMNB article from last year on Kuzy, which quotes Trotz discussing Kuzy's development, it's interesting how much Kuzy needed to mentally adjust his game to succeed.

It is easier to find open space in the KHL, but in the NHL you have to fight for your space. That’s exactly what Kuznetsov’s problem was: to understand that he needs to be more physical, otherwise he’ll keep losing the puck. But even if you turn the puck over, but try to get it back instead of switching off, there is a good chance you’ll get it back and resume your offense. That’s what he needed to improve, and at some point he realized that and started doing it.

I know he has become good friends with Pavel Datsyuk. When we were in Detroit, Pavel asked me how Kuznetsov was doing. I told him: “I need him to play more like Datsyuk.†He then asked: “In which zone?†– “The way you stay engaged, don’t switch off under any circumstances, even when you lose the puck.†As far as I know he talked to Kuzy afterwards.

The thing is when Kuzy was doing well last season, he was also doing a lot of things wrong. His defensive play needed improvement, his face off work left a lot of be desired... I wonder though, if this is the issue. To succeed he has to be focussed on playing the right way, but when he was succeeding he was being coached and pushed to be better in more areas, assuming his game was coming naturally to him rather than a conscious effort.

He's now being pushed to be more selfish - while saying making the pass to give his partner the chance is what he considers "fun", when the truth is last season Kuzy was dangerous as a passer or a shooter. Look at Backstrom on the PPG yesterday - it succeeded because he put himself in a position where he legitimately could shoot, with Williams there for the rebound, or he could pass to Ovi. And he took his time. Watching Kuzy play, he's making slow decisions at times, but rarely from positions where he has a great shooting chance and a great passing chance at the same time. So whatever he attempts is obvious to the opposition.

And now he's being told to simplify his game, which actually doesn't play to his strengths. Kuzy works when he's unpredictable - will he wrap around, will he make a blind pass backwards behind the net to a winger etc. He's doing very little of this right now.


That said: if Kuzy's success was the result of great strategy, more than skill, he'll only continue to succeed if he can create new magical strategies. My fear is he won't be able to.

 

[g00n]

Any time a player is slow to react and looks confused he's got too many conflicting instructions and thoughts in his head. Kuz was known for his high hockey IQ and quick thinking, and suddenly he can't figure anything out? He needs to be more physical to find space? I don't buy that at all if that's what Trotz and pals are pumping into his head.

When Kuz came up he needed some time to adjust and study the NHL, then he found all the open spaces and made great plays without adding to his physical game. Why would that change? Other players in this league have had similar styles. It's not like every single player in the NHL has to have 50% grind in his toolbox to succeed. This is myopia from within the Trotz Tryhard Bubble.

When you're a hammer then everything looks like a nail. Trotz is an effort hammer. He doesn't seem like the kind of coach that prioritizes skill enough to be looking for ways to put players in position to succeed. It's all effort and merit...paying dues.

Why give one of the most talented rosters we've had to a guy who wants to turn them all into robotic grinders? So bringing this back to Kuz, I still think Trotz has him twisted up. Turn the kid loose. Put him with guys who he can work with. Maybe move him to wing if he'd like that. Just see what happens.

 

[hockeyfan88]

Offense these days should be about movement, skill, speed of execution and precision.

The "will over skill" mantra is getting old fast.

 

[peterthegreat12]

The one positive of him having a crappy season is that he won't be cashing in this off season with these numbers.

 

[Hivemind]

One of the reasons Kuzy was relatively slow during his first initial stint in the NHL was because he wasn't on the same wavelength as many of his linemates. He kept trying to do the extra move or slow the play down, and it resulted in many of the (at the time) cycle-first Capitals forwards not being ready for his plays. Johansson and Ovechkin were among the first Capitals to be able to play with Kuzy's more free-flowing and creative offensive style. Last year, many Caps forwards were able and allowed to bridge that gap, and turned Kuznetsov into the dynamic scorer he was. It also helped that a couple "set plays" developed (namely the "twister pass").

This season it seems to be the opposite problem. Kuznetsov is decidedly not a "low-high" player, and that's the offensive zone style the coaching staff seems to try to ram down the Caps throat right now. Kuzy is trying to force the simpler, north-south plays rather than playing to his strengths. There's less of the swapping positions with partners and circling around the ice to create confusion, and more dumping the puck to the points and hoping for the best (even if that play isn't there or isn't productive). There's more taking the puck into the corners for a "safe" play that leads nowhere. There's far too much dumbing down of Kuznetsov's game so it fits the style of the team.

 

[trick9]

One of the reasons Kuzy was relatively slow during his first initial stint in the NHL was because he wasn't on the same wavelength as many of his linemates. He kept trying to do the extra move or slow the play down, and it resulted in many of the (at the time) cycle-first Capitals forwards not being ready for his plays. Johansson and Ovechkin were among the first Capitals to be able to play with Kuzy's more free-flowing and creative offensive style. Last year, many Caps forwards were able and allowed to bridge that gap, and turned Kuznetsov into the dynamic scorer he was. It also helped that a couple "set plays" developed (namely the "twister pass").

This season it seems to be the opposite problem. Kuznetsov is decidedly not a "low-high" player, and that's the offensive zone style the coaching staff seems to try to ram down the Caps throat right now. Kuzy is trying to force the simpler, north-south plays rather than playing to his strengths. There's less of the swapping positions with partners and circling around the ice to create confusion, and more dumping the puck to the points and hoping for the best (even if that play isn't there or isn't productive). There's more taking the puck into the corners for a "safe" play that leads nowhere. There's far too much dumbing down of Kuznetsov's game so it fits the style of the team.

He had lots of his last seasons primary assists on plays where he set Williams or Chimera up for empty netters simply by staying near the crease with their sticks down. Honestly can remember atleast 10 of those from last season and i can't recall those plays happening even once this season.

 

[RandyHolt]

He had lots of his last seasons primary assists on plays where he set Williams or Chimera up for empty netters simply by staying near the crease with their sticks down. Honestly can remember atleast 10 of those from last season and i can't recall those plays happening even once this season.

Good memory.

It wasn't just those 3 though, that was the offensive approach of the entire team for the first 55 games or so. It dominated. And then seemed to vanish.

It was hockey at it's simplest. Drive the net. Stick on the ice. Have the puck, pass or shoot it towards that guy; see a guy taking lumps in front, get the puck there. Don't have the puck? Don't stand on the wing like an idiot, head towards the net in a passing lane stick down ready to shoot.

I love that offense. Me and my roller mates always called that: center out front.. It literally requires about 2 minutes of coaching to implement.

 

[twabby]

It's almost as if low-to-high isn't a very efficient offensive system compared to alternatives:

https://hockey-graphs.com/2016/07/1...-to-inform-tactical-offensive-zone-decisions/

If your plan is to score goals and create rebounds, play behind the net.

Low-to-high relies on a lot of things going right with the point shot, including not getting blocked. I have mentioned it before but I would bet money that shots are blocked at a much higher rate come postseason than in regular season games.