Dustin Byfuglien - Part III

[nobody important]

Maybe it was this tweet with Hendricks and Buff out sturgeon fishing in BC yesterday?

I don't think going fishing with a guy who is injured is proof that someone is not injured. I do however have to question the sanity of both of them for taking on a several hundred pound fish while injured. No, sorry that's wrong. I have to question their sanity for doing that, period. I wouldn't go after anything bigger than a walleye. Or maybe a surgeon, if he's a wimpy old guy.

Man, this is getting as much chatter as... The Handshake That Never Was.

 

[SoupaTroupa]

Maybe it was this tweet with Hendricks and Buff out sturgeon fishing in BC yesterday?

I don't see how him going fishing means he is not injured. First of all, he is fishing with Hendricks, who is also injured, and second of all, I don't see why someone would not be able to fish with a minor lower body injury. I don't doubt that it's possible he was a healthy scratch, (n face I'd be impressed with Maurice if he actually did that) but I don't see what fishing has to do with whether or not he is actually injured.

 

[Channelcat]

Sure doesn't look injured to me. I don't think this is recent conjecture. I think the eyes were rolling, the second it was announced. It wasn't even a surprise.

 

[blues10]

Buff to take the morning skate and not play again. Looks like he is hurt in some way. Perhaps the Jets will rest nicked up d men all season.

 

[SensibleGuy]

I don't see how him going fishing means he is not injured. First of all, he is fishing with Hendricks, who is also injured, and second of all, I don't see why someone would not be able to fish with a minor lower body injury. I don't doubt that it's possible he was a healthy scratch, (n face I'd be impressed with Maurice if he actually did that) but I don't see what fishing has to do with whether or not he is actually injured.

It's not that it proves he isn't injured. It's really about optics. If you are Buff and you know you are missing hockey games due to injury and that there is a certain amount of "discussion" about what might really be going on, do you allow pics of yourself to go up online of you on outdoor adventures?

 

[SensibleGuy]

Sure doesn't look injured to me. I don't think this is recent conjecture. I think the eyes were rolling, the second it was announced. It wasn't even a surprise.

Yeah, people started talking about the possibility as soon as word got out that there was a chance Poolman might play. "Who could be out? Could it be Buff??"

They are discussing it (and the pic) right now on 1290...

 

[Whileee]

Your critique? Have you published something? I am quite sure nothing you posted here is a response to my post. If you want to critique professionals public work, show your work. Posting a random table with your opinions is meaningless. Show your work.

"I am pretty sure the earth is flat." (shows picture of earth looking pretty flat)

I posted a table from one of your "professionals public work" to illustrate that some have generated evidence to suggest that individual players have differential impact on the quality of shots against. I thought it was pretty simple.

I review and edit scientific journal articles and it's not customary to "show your work" when you are critiquing research methods. My critique is with the methodology that led to the conclusion. Correlating season-to-season relative on-ice save percentage and using a low correlation coefficient as the evidence that an individual has no role in save percentage assumes that there is no adaptation in the system (along with all sorts of other potential logical fallacies). For example, if a defenseman is consistently giving up high scoring chances, coaches are likely to do one or more of the following: 1) reduce quality of competition; 2) increase quality of teammates; 3) intervene with coaching, etc. Any of these could reduce the quality of shots against.

But perhaps you'd like to hear from a professional (David Johnson) https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/0...-no-sustainable-control-over-save-percentage/:

Correction: the quote below is not from Garret as I had stated in my original post - it's from David Johnson - a hockey statistical analyst who has been hired by the Calgary Flames. Johnson created hockeyanalysis.com and puckalytics.com.

My apologies to Garret for misrepresenting his views by misreading the cadence of the comments.

I just don’t know how you can be certain the impact is small. It may be awash in noise, but to assert it is “minimal” without attempting to quantify/account for the noise and to assert that a goalies save percentage is his own and can’t be influenced by the team considering the significance score effects have on save percentage seems like a stretch to me which is why I will continue to investigate.

 

[Stej]

Geez. How long until someone throws Buff's fishing rod in the cold tub, sealing his fate with the team?

 

[nobody important]

It's not that it proves he isn't injured. It's really about optics. If you are Buff and you know you are missing hockey games due to injury and that there is a certain amount of "discussion" about what might really be going on, do you allow pics of yourself to go up online of you on outdoor adventures?

But, he is with Hendricks, an acknowledged locker room leader. This was posted to inspire the troops. Do you think there is a man on the Jets now who doesn't see two wounded warriors risking life and limb to land a several hundred pound behemoth and isn't inspired to give it their all on the ice?!!! This is the Buff we have been waiting to see.

 

[nobody important]

I review and edit scientific journal articles

Hmmm... noted.

 

[Whileee]

Matt Hendricks... #BuffWhisperer

 

[SensibleGuy]

Matt Hendricks... #BuffWhisperer

Haha I thought about that actually. Maybe it’s a great example of why the organization wanted Hendricks.

“Hey Buff my man, I heard about you getting healthy scratched! That sucks! But I know what might boost your spirits!”

 

[DoingItCoolKiwi]

Maurice said Buff was injured before Flames game and it got worse during the game.

 

[Hobby Bull]

It seems so obvious when you watch some of the mistakes he makes.

I get that goaltending hurts him more than a lot of players but reading this seems to confirm in me how much some people on this forum are corsi zombies. Or more appropriately rely entirely on stats they don't know how to use.

.909 with him on and .924 without. Holy cow. Who would have figured Buff would help create offense but hurt us overall in the end?

Maurice needs to play bad cop to get him to play his position. I'll still hold out hope because he's competent some games and that makes him an elite 1D lol.

But, if Maurice cant reign him in...then limit his minutes or even press box him.

 

[Hobby Bull]

The stats do not indicate that the Jets are worse off with Byfuglien on the ice. The net is still that they score more.

It's fair to conclude that they are giving up more high quality chances with him on the ice based on that decline indicated in save percentage by Jets' goalies when he's out there, but he is a net advantage. That's quite clear in those numbers.

His defensive play could improve, but I really can't see any rational argument that considers losing Buff as addition by subtraction. (I know you didn't say that, but it's reflective of the tone on this thread)

 

[JetsFan815]

It's not that it proves he isn't injured. It's really about optics. If you are Buff and you know you are missing hockey games due to injury and that there is a certain amount of "discussion" about what might really be going on, do you allow pics of yourself to go up online of you on outdoor adventures?

What a player does on his NHLPA mandated day off is none of anyone's business.

 

[folix]

Well if I was pissed at the coach for sitting me because I was "hurt" and I knew I wasnt "hurt" why not post a pic of you fishing for a 1,000 lb fish?

Kinda the Lupul approach of the leafs saying he failed the physical and him posting a pic of him snowboarding.

Thats my two cents. It doesnt prove he is injured, but a sure a slap in the face of the coach and will force Pomo to answer alot of very tough questions.

 

[Gm0ney]

Well if I was pissed at the coach for sitting me because I was "hurt" and I knew I wasnt "hurt" why not post a pic of you fishing for a 1,000 lb fish?

Kinda the Lupul approach of the leafs saying he failed the physical and him posting a pic of him snowboarding.

Thats my two cents. It doesnt prove he is injured, but a sure a slap in the face of the coach and will force Pomo to answer alot of very tough questions.

The fishing company posted the original pictures and Hendricks quote-tweeted it.

 

[KingBogo]

What a player does on his NHLPA mandated day off is none of anyone's business.

Unless it presents an additional injury risk. You wouldn't want Myers last season when he was recovering from hip surgery going skydiving.

 

[Howard Chuck]

If that is a picture from yesterday, and it may be an old picture posted yesterday, that would be absurd for an athlete. If you can't play hockey then you are at physio or the doctor or something rehabbing. You're not walking in a river and fighting a huge fish. That would just be beyond irresponsible.

 

[Howard Chuck]

I would need confirmation that this is actually not an old picture.

 

[blues10]

I would need confirmation that this is actually not an old picture.

The Freep has a story up about it and Maurice addressed it. Nothing to see here. It was a team day off.

Big Buff catches big fish while nursing small injury

https://www.winnipegfreepress.com/s...ish-while-nursing-small-injury-450503933.html

 

[pucka lucka]

I posted a table from one of your "professionals public work" to illustrate that some have generated evidence to suggest that individual players have differential impact on the quality of shots against. I thought it was pretty simple.

I review and edit scientific journal articles and it's not customary to "show your work" when you are critiquing research methods. My critique is with the methodology that led to the conclusion. Correlating season-to-season relative on-ice save percentage and using a low correlation coefficient as the evidence that an individual has no role in save percentage assumes that there is no adaptation in the system (along with all sorts of other potential logical fallacies). For example, if a defenseman is consistently giving up high scoring chances, coaches are likely to do one or more of the following: 1) reduce quality of competition; 2) increase quality of teammates; 3) intervene with coaching, etc. Any of these could reduce the quality of shots against.

But perhaps you'd like to hear from a resident professional (Garret) https://hockey-graphs.com/2014/07/0...-no-sustainable-control-over-save-percentage/:

You change careers a lot. How does doing stuff with unnamed journals, paid or as a hobby factor in this discussion?

First of all nobody has said an individual has no role in SV%. What has been said is that there is no evidence that it's a repeatable skill. What I would expect from a practicing scientist/researcher (anyone) is to ask if Buff is actually an outlier. Then from there come up with a hypothesis on how this can be measured. You can't dredge the data looking for answers. When I say show your work I mean show us how Buff does influence SV%. You've said you have considerable expertise in this area, so I'd hope to understand how Buff is bucking all the evidence to date. Musing about Buffs behaviour doesn't really cut it.

Another questionable thing from your post, you presented a quote as if it's from Garret'ss article when it most definitely belongs to an unaffiliated person in the comment section of the article. That is a most serious faux pas in a scientific journal I'd imagine.

 

[Whileee]

You change careers a lot. How does doing stuff with unnamed journals, paid or as a hobby factor in this discussion?

First of all nobody has said an individual has no role in SV%. What has been said is that there is no evidence that it's a repeatable skill. What I would expect from a practicing scientist/researcher (anyone) is to ask if Buff is actually an outlier. Then from there come up with a hypothesis on how this can be measured. You can't dredge the data looking for answers. When I say show your work I mean show us how Buff does influence SV%. You've said you have considerable expertise in this area, so I'd hope to understand how Buff is bucking all the evidence to date. Musing about Buffs behaviour doesn't really cut it.

Another questionable thing from your post, you presented a quote as if it's from Garret'ss article when it most definitely belongs to an unaffiliated person in the comment section of the article. That is a most serious faux pas in a scientific journal I'd imagine.

I haven't changed my career. I'll pm you with credentials, since you seem skeptical.

I didn't say Buff bucked any trends, but expressed skepticism that you couldn't infer anything from on ice save percentage, and that it was likely that the Jets tracked scoring chances. I speculated that they found him wanting in that area because they moved him to forward. I don't advocate that, mind you.

That quote was from a comment from Garret in the comments section below the article. Did you even look at the linked page?

 

[pucka lucka]

I haven't changed my career. I'll pm you with credentials, since you seem skeptical.

I didn't say Buff bucked any trends, but expressed skepticism that you couldn't infer anything from on ice save percentage, and that it was likely that the Jets tracked scoring chances. I speculated that they found him wanting in that area because they moved him to forward. I don't advocate that, mind you.

That quote was from a comment from Garret in the comments section below the article. Did you even look at the linked page?

I said it was from the comment section. It's most definitely not from Garret.