Dustin Byfuglien - Part III

[Johnny HFBOARDS]

I was gonna say something about this photo but we have bigger fish to fry.

 

[John Agar]

I was gonna say something about this photo but we have bigger fish to fry.

"Fish-Gate"....

 

[Jet]

Almost on queue, Dellow puts uo a Buff story at the athletic.

Dellow: Risk, reward and the Dustin Byfuglien question

Since the Jets moved to Winnipeg, Dustin Byfuglien has one of the worst differences between his on-ice and off-ice save percentages at 5-on-5 in the NHL. When Byfuglien's on the ice, the Jets have put up a .909 since 2011-12. When he's on the bench, they've put up a .924. Only Seth Jones and Jake Muzzin have worse differentials amongst defencemen who've been on the ice for at least 2000 shots in that window. They're both much closer to the 2,000 shot threshold (2,337 shots against and 2,406 shots against) than Byfuglien (3,735 shots against), which means that there's probably more noise in their save percentages than in Byfuglien's.
As a result of this, Byfuglien is one of the unusual players whose Corsi% is quite different than his GF%, even in a large sample. Relative to his team since 2011-12, Byfuglien's Corsi% is 2.4 points better than the Jets when he's on the bench. That's good! His GF% is 1.7 points worse than the Jets when he's not on the ice. That's bad! It's important to note that this is a save percentage problem, not a shooting percentage problem – the Jets have shot 8.2 per cent with Byfuglien on the ice at 5-on-5 in this time and 8.0 per cent when he's on the bench.

More here

https://theathletic.com/122990/2017/10/10/dellow-risk-reward-and-the-dustin-byfuglien-question/

So this tells me something that I think we have all been arguing (from different sides) all along:

• Buff drives possession and shots
• Buff's style of play may not lead to significantly MORE chances against, but the chances against we give up when he is on the ice are significantly more dangerous and hard to stop (turnovers in bad areas, odd man rushes against, unchecked players backdoor/ net front).
• I would also take it further and state that Buff USED to generate more dangerous chances for, but that dried up a bit last year (as did his production)

 

[Jet]

• . but it was a fascinating read and would be red meat for Jet if he has time. In ones quest to learn more about cause and effect Dellow is a gem.

I'm hurt, PS. Are you suggesting that I somehow have it out for Big Buff?

 

[Daximus]

I’m guessing that’s a very long walk.
Is that still available ?
Maybe in Transcona or Rennie ?

You can get it in Moose Jaw.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

Does he have to come back?

 

[ps241]

I'm hurt, PS. Are you suggesting that I somehow have it out for Big Buff?

Not at all but I do know that you are very skeptical of his risk reward, lazy, bad Buff moments. You have been the first to heap praise on good Buff. That being said I knew you would like the article since it adds to the debate. In the past you have been a tad skeptical of an outright appeal to authority to the emerging advanced stats movement and what they say about Buff. There was some very good rebuttal of Tyler's article from some in our advanced stats community though as well.

To be continued

 

[Carbooja]

I had too much time on my hands this morning.

 

[sipowicz]

Does he have to come back?

When and if he does he better not see more than 20 minutes of ice time per game, it's no longer needed nor does it help the team to have him playing more than any other D man we currently have.

 

[Howard Chuck]

When and if he does he better not see more than 20 minutes of ice time per game, it's no longer needed nor does it help the team to have him playing more than any other D man we currently have.

You know that, I know that, almost everyone in the free world knows that, but Maurice will play him and Wheeler to point of exhaustion so they take lots of lazy penalties can't keep up in the dying minutes of a game.

There's my pessimism back....

 

[Board Bard]

I was gonna say something about this photo but we have bigger fish to fry.

You've had your fill, eh?

 

[Jet]

Not at all but I do know that you are very skeptical of his risk reward, lazy, bad Buff moments. You have been the first to heap praise on good Buff. That being said I knew you would like the article since it adds to the debate. In the past you have been a tad skeptical of an outright appeal to authority to the emerging advanced stats movement and what they say about Buff. There was some very good rebuttal of Tyler's article from some in our advanced stats community though as well.

To be continued

You are not wrong and are too kind

For me, I am just trying to come to an understanding of the juxaposition between what the stats gang say about Byfuglien, and what I know, like I know water is wet, are Buffs shortfalls. I still to this moment believe that the Buff we usually see is detrimental to the Winnipeg Jets winning hockey games. I did not peel this article apart, but it really makes sense that argument - because it would support what the stats guys say about what Buff does well, but it would also reinforce my true belief of 'regular Buff's' negative impact on Jets game results.

Maybe we have Bruce Banner Buff, and Hulk Buff? Normally, Buff is a mild mannered fisherman who skates around the ice, kicks it into gear when he sees an offensive opportunity, but just chills when the puck is in his own zone. Occasionally, Hulk Buff comes out, and he smashes guys, owns the puck, and drives forward momentum for the team?

I am hoping his 'injury' has made him angry. The opposition won't like him when he's angry

 

[Jeffsrig]

Buff needs a leash, he has been ineffective on almost 100% of his play below the hash marks...... it's time to reel the big man in...... hit and hold the blue line, quick crisp passes and move your feet.

 

[Aavco Cup]

There's a Chevy Q & A article at the Athletic. I found this the most interesting thing in there.

"but when things started to heat up with Dustin, I remember vividly a conversation we had in my office. It was just him and I. We sat there face-to-face. No agents. No money. No nothing. I just said to him, ‘Buff, why? Why do you want to stay here?’ and he said, ‘look Chevy. I want to win. I love the young guys. They give me energy. It’s fun to come to the rink and play with these guys. My family loves it here. My wife loves it here – and she’s going to kill me if I don’t walk out of this office with a contract, so let’s just get this done, because this is where I want to be.’ In 24 to 48 hours, we had the deal done."

 

[PhilJets]

Buff is probably at a cross road that he needs to make a change in his play style to be more effective going forward.

Before Jets were relying in him a lot to make things happen. 2-3 years go there are 5 game stretches that Buff had a hand in all the Jets goals.

Now, he doesnt need to carry it on his shoulder. I believe he is now more and more sacrificing his offense to shutdown the other team. Though that offensive side kicks in from time to time. Which is ok.


Man

If we get a defensive shut down punishing D from Buff.
Thats a game changer for this team again .

I hope Buff raise the cup here.

 

[Evil Little]

There's a Chevy Q & A article at the Athletic. I found this the most interesting thing in there.

"but when things started to heat up with Dustin, I remember vividly a conversation we had in my office. It was just him and I. We sat there face-to-face. No agents. No money. No nothing. I just said to him, ‘Buff, why? Why do you want to stay here?’ and he said, ‘look Chevy. I want to win. I love the young guys. They give me energy. It’s fun to come to the rink and play with these guys. My family loves it here. My wife loves it here – and she’s going to kill me if I don’t walk out of this office with a contract, so let’s just get this done, because this is where I want to be.’ In 24 to 48 hours, we had the deal done."

It was clearly a proud moment for Cheveldayoff. He brings it up a lot, but never before to this detail.

I still think that contract was a huge win on term and trade restriction, and it goes to show the unique considerations in place for Byfuglien. Important given the Jets' unique status as a market.

So I guess Dr. Ladd didn't like it here...?

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

My positive threads need to be coupled with a few negative ones.

As always my focus is on Buff & him leading the NHL's defensemen in minor penalties for 5 of the past 6 seasons.

This season is a little different. Rather than simply leading all NHL defensemen in minor penalties taken, he now tops all the forwards as well, leading EVERY skater in this category with 14 minors while averaging 1:52 in penalty minutes per game played with only a single major inflating that stat.

Essentially Buff puts the team short handed once a game. He's getting worse not better.

 

[surixon]

My positive threads need to be coupled with a few negative ones.

As always my focus is on Buff & him leading the NHL's defensemen in minor penalties for 5 of the past 6 seasons.

This season is a little different. Rather than simply leading all NHL defensemen in minor penalties taken, he now tops all the forwards as well, leading EVERY skater in this category with 14 minors while averaging 1:52 in penalty minutes per game played with only a single major inflating that stat.

Essentially Buff puts the team short handed once a game. He's getting worse not better.

He most certainly needs to clean up his act in this regard. No real excuses for him. The fact he still leads our dmen in ice time by a large margin really is annoying. This is seemingly the one player Moe can't seem to bench or hold accountable.

 

[DashingDane]

Agree that he needs to clean up the minors... but same could be said about a couple other vets cough Wheels cough.
Overall I think Buff has been better this season though. Last season was really painful and that might be why I have been impressed but I do think we are seeing less Bad Buff.

Now watch him cost the team a W tonight

 

[10Ducky10]

Buff has been p laying very well overall this year and catches much too much flak. Does anyone ever notice the plays that he breaks up when they are just developing? He has great anticipation (he reminds me of Carlyle that way) and reads the game well defensively.

 

[Aavco Cup]

Buff has been p laying very well overall this year and catches much too much flak. Does anyone ever notice the plays that he breaks up when they are just developing? He has great anticipation (he reminds me of Carlyle that way) and reads the game well defensively.

I notice them all. Buff is exceptional at preventing zone exits and zone entries. It's one of the things that makes him so good. They aren't sexy plays though so he never gets credit fo it and of course if one goes awry it is usually ends up a confirmation bias moment.

 

[LowLefty]

Yup, he's playing better than last year but still takes too many penalties - especially for a guy that wear an "A".
He gets lazy every once in a while . . .

 

[JetsFan815]

I feel really bad for Buff, he is playing really well but just can't buy a goal right now. Good thing Mark Stone is in town this weekend for Buff to take out his frustrations on.

 

[204hockey]

I feel really bad for Buff, he is playing really well but just can't buy a goal right now. Good thing Mark Stone is in town this weekend for Buff to take out his frustrations on.

i am kinda glad that hes not scoring and the team is winning. it is showing him that the team can win while hes not having to force things. and hes been playing so damn good cus of it. once he gets antsy and starts playing reckless u see the break downs and chances that it creates for the other team. once he relieses he can just use that first pass and mobility he has in other ways he will learn to embrace the shut down role we need him for.

and i hope his first goal is a GWG in the 3rd period of a close game!

 

[PhilJets]

Props to Buff

This is the year he transition his game to elite shutdown D.

We need him to ground
Tarasenko
Forsberg
Kane
Benn