Speculation: Duchene trade looking back

[Drij]

Well, I don't think you remember that Nashville and Turris were also involved. Nashville gave up pieces to get Turris, which added to Colorado's asset gains.

Look, this site is obsessed with futures, but you don't know how how this trade is gonna be until they're all playing for the Colorado Avalanche.

Unless Ottawa loses Karlsson, and Duchene when he's a UFA. Then yikes...

I think that's a given at this point.

 

[Gnashville]

Is he? I know he's on a nice streak these past 7 or 8 games, but prior to that, he was pointless for about 20 straight games and while he still looked decent in some of those games, he also looked pretty bad in quite a few. If I remember right, he only has a couple of even strength points in Colorado. I'd say he's had an okay season, looked decent at times, pretty bad at times, and occasionally really good. I definitely wouldn't say he's "killing it". Not bad for a 19 year old, especially a tiny 19 year old, but I can't really see any justification to call him blue chip.

He's a 19 year old defenseman!!! Like how many great Dmen have ever played in the NHL as a teenager?
I love Turris but it still upsets me that they gave up Girard for him.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

He's a 19 year old defenseman!!! Like how many great Dmen have ever played in the NHL as a teenager?
I love Turris but it still upsets me that they gave up Girard for him.

What's your point here? I'm quite aware of his age and even mentioned his exact age in my post. I responded to someone that was specifically talking about his play this year. I have no idea why you felt the need to respond to me.

 

[Korpse]

I think that's a given at this point.

yikes...

 

[Jyrki Lumme]

yikes...

I'd be hoping to lose him if he kept playing the way he has this season.

 

[Gnashville]

What's your point here? I'm quite aware of his age and even mentioned his exact age in my post. I responded to someone that was specifically talking about his play this year. I have no idea why you felt the need to respond to me.

Because he is a blue chipper and his rookie year is only a taste of things to come. He alone will be a win for the Avs in this deal.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

Usually quality for quantity trades aren't trade, but the Avs cleaned up in this one. They needed depth and they got at

Girard looks like a two way stud. Think he will easily be a top four defenceman.

Kaminov and Bowers should both easily be good top nine forwards, Kaminov I could see being a top six.

The Sens draft pick has a good chance at being a high pick (this year or next). The second rounder is nice to.

They also sent out six million in cap space taking only a little bit back.

 

[Boud]

Usually quality for quantity trades aren't trade, but the Avs cleaned up in this one. They needed depth and they got at

Girard looks like a two way stud. Think he will easily be a top four defenceman.

Kaminov and Bowers should both easily be good top nine forwards, Kaminov I could see being a top six.

The Sens draft pick has a good chance at being a high pick (this year or next). The second rounder is nice to.

They also sent out six million in cap space taking only a little bit back.

Soooo, tell me, how much you know about Kaminov?

 

[indigobuffalo]

Eric Lindros for Forsberg and the rest

Patrick Roy and Mike Keane for Thibault, Kovalenko and Rucinsky

Ray Bourque for Brian Rolston, Sami Pahlson, Martin Greneir and a 1st (Martin Samuelson)

Rob Blake and Steve Reinprecht for Adam Deadmarsh, Aaron Miller, Jared Aulin, 2 1sts (David Steckel and Brian Boyle)


But yeah it has potential, but I'd rule out it ever topping Lindros. It's like being James Bond after Connery.

Gomez not getting any love...

 

[indigobuffalo]

Gotta look at this from more than just the players dealt directly in this.

 

[Castle8130]

Duchene is a meh second line center at best that can be good offensively. Colorado got better because of the subtraction of duchene and putting someone in his place that can play defensively(girard also helps). The worst trade Ottowa has ever made and I think they are screwed next season too. The only thing that can save them is their prospects.

 

[Adele Dazeem]

One of the worst trades in NHL history. Ottawa is done for possibly a decade +.

This is the worst comment on HFBoards history.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I hope they resign him... He is one of the few players that brings it ... he is top 3 in the best players the team has. Park the results this year. He is a highly skilled dynamic player that clearly cares

 

[Ivan13]

What's your point here? I'm quite aware of his age and even mentioned his exact age in my post. I responded to someone that was specifically talking about his play this year. I have no idea why you felt the need to respond to me.

He was pointless for so long because Bednar believes you need to pay your dues defensively befire you are given the reigns and freedom to push the play offensively. They wanted to teach him good habits and they managed to do that with great success.

Also, someone who says Sam is getting outmuscled on regular basis is talking out of his behind, kid is more than capable of holding his own, hell he even manhandled Radulov who is know for having good lower body strenght on a handful of occassions. 19 year old kids shouldn't look this good playing D in the NHL.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Girard is a good piece. But he was traded to Colorado by Nashville, and had nothing to do with Duchene.

This 3-way was really two separate trades.


Turris
Bowers
OTT ‘18 1st
OTT ‘18 3rd
Hammond


Duchene

Then


Turris (signed)


Kamenev
Girard
NSH ‘18 2nd

Seems like Turris, Bowers and a 3rd for Duchene, and then a signed Turris for Girard, Kamenev, and a 2nd. Hammond was dumped for a 1st.

If Hammond was actually dumped for a 3rd, that trade looks even worse for OTT. Colorado did really well in turning Duchene into a cap dump, three good prospects, and a 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd.

Nashville paid fair market value for Turris (I don’t think Kamenev is that big of a deal, but Girard+2nd seems to be the going rate historically for this type of thing).

Ottawa trades Turris, a cap dump, a 1st, a 3rd, and Bowers for a marginal to decent upgrade in Duchene. If it took a 1st to move Hammond, this is a fairish deal, or at least close enough. If Hammond was an actual value piece or moved for less than the 1st (even before Ottawa sucking), this was a bad move.

But then there’s this:

Why did it go this way when Ottawa could have just traded to NSH directly, and then used those pieces + to grab Duchene?


Turris (re-signed)


Girard
Kamenev
NSH ‘18 2nd

Then


Girard/OTT ‘18 1st
Bowers/Kamenev
NSH ‘18 2nd
OTT ‘18 3rd
Hammond


Duchene

This way Ottawa keeps one of Kamenev or Bowers, and keeps their first or Girard. Ottawa might have even been able to negotiate one of those items completely off the table.

I think it didn’t go down this way because both Colorado and Nashville had Ottawa over a barrel with their cap situation and Turris not wanting to re-sign there. Everyone thought Sakic was in tough shit with Duchene, but he leveraged Ottawa’s particular situation to his advatange, and kept Dorion in the dark about Colorado wanting Nashville’s pieces, so all he saw was an offer for Turris that involved futures and no C - not realizing he could flip them for Duchene. This “3-way” was actually two separate trades since no party mixed assets until after an initial trade was made.

Sakic demanded Turris+ (with cap dump) for Duchene, and that seemed reasonable to Ottawa if Turris was un-signed, but then Sakic flipped Turris (signed) for even more pieces to Nashville, costing Ottawa more than they should have had to give up, and cheating them out of Duchene+Girard/OTT 1st or Duchene+Kamenev/Bowers.

 

[Devonator]

Honestly it is way to early to fully judge this trade.....lets look back in another year and then lets do an assessment then.....

 

[Mogo]

OP is clearly very young thinking this is a big trade for Colorado/Quebec. This might seem like a big trade these days with no trading almost at all. Unproved prospects and picks

 

[WesMcCauley]

Duchene is a first line center. Not top 10 or even top 15, but still a first line center.

Duchene has 178 points in 279 games the last 4 seasons. Thats a 52 point pace per 82 games over the last 4 seasons. At some point a player has to perform now and not be judged on a couple great seasons 5+ years ago. Over 50 centers had a better ppg % last season than Duchene´s average the last 4 seasons. Is he really a first line center anymore?

 

[Korpse]

I think it didn’t go down this way because both Colorado and Nashville had Ottawa over a barrel with their cap situation and Turris not wanting to re-sign there. Everyone thought Sakic was in tough **** with Duchene, but he leveraged Ottawa’s particular situation to his advatange, and kept Dorion in the dark about Colorado wanting Nashville’s pieces, so all he saw was an offer for Turris that involved futures and no C - not realizing he could flip them for Duchene. This “3-way” was actually two separate trades since no party mixed assets until after an initial trade was made.

Sakic demanded Turris+ (with cap dump) for Duchene, and that seemed reasonable to Ottawa if Turris was un-signed, but then Sakic flipped Turris (signed) for even more pieces to Nashville, costing Ottawa more than they should have had to give up, and cheating them out of Duchene+Girard/OTT 1st or Duchene+Kamenev/Bowers.

Except we have enough information to know that all this is incorrect. First off Turris was more than willing to sign in Ottawa but he was looking for term but Ottawa was not willing to go any more than 5 years, every report that came out said they agreed on value but term was the cause for separation. Turris ended up signing for a very reasonable 6 years and theres the whole 'they didn't offer that', 'they didn't bring that to the table' thing that happened. Secondly there is no cap situation here, not even a budget situation, well besides Hammond being added to offset for Duchene's higher salary. The money going in and money going out for Ottawa is the same had they signed Turris and not made the trade. Last and the most far fetched theory is Sakic's masterplan to keep Dorion in the dark. Ottawa and Colorado had come to terms in the weeks prior to the trade being finalized, the thing holding up the deal was Colorado agreeing to terms with a third party to flip Turris to. Dorion actually suggested to Sakic that he keep Turris and move him later in the season, but Joe didn't want to do that to Turris, and that came straight from the mouth of Dorion. It's well documented how this trade came to be, theres absolutely no reason to be aimlessly speculating like this.

It's also well documented that Dorion was after Duchene well before any contract negations with Turris took place. After the trade went down Ian Mendes came out and said that Dorion had personally told him in the past that he told Joe Sakic that if Duchene were ever available, he was interested, this would have been before any trade demand. You are overthinking this, it's quite simple. Dorion paid a premium price to acquire a player he had coveted,

Give this a read:


and #8 here briefly touches on contract negotiations


Both topics are well covered and if you research them you will find more on them but this two articles were easy to find, are reliable and give you a pretty good idea.

 

[Ivan13]

Girard is a good piece. But he was traded to Colorado by Nashville, and had nothing to do with Duchene.

This 3-way was really two separate trades.


Turris
Bowers
OTT ‘18 1st
OTT ‘18 3rd
Hammond


Duchene

Then


Turris (signed)


Kamenev
Girard
NSH ‘18 2nd

Seems like Turris, Bowers and a 3rd for Duchene, and then a signed Turris for Girard, Kamenev, and a 2nd. Hammond was dumped for a 1st.

If Hammond was actually dumped for a 3rd, that trade looks even worse for OTT. Colorado did really well in turning Duchene into a cap dump, three good prospects, and a 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd.

Nashville paid fair market value for Turris (I don’t think Kamenev is that big of a deal, but Girard+2nd seems to be the going rate historically for this type of thing).

Ottawa trades Turris, a cap dump, a 1st, a 3rd, and Bowers for a marginal to decent upgrade in Duchene. If it took a 1st to move Hammond, this is a fairish deal, or at least close enough. If Hammond was an actual value piece or moved for less than the 1st (even before Ottawa sucking), this was a bad move.

But then there’s this:

Why did it go this way when Ottawa could have just traded to NSH directly, and then used those pieces + to grab Duchene?


Turris (re-signed)


Girard
Kamenev
NSH ‘18 2nd

Then


Girard/OTT ‘18 1st
Bowers/Kamenev
NSH ‘18 2nd
OTT ‘18 3rd
Hammond


Duchene

This way Ottawa keeps one of Kamenev or Bowers, and keeps their first or Girard. Ottawa might have even been able to negotiate one of those items completely off the table.

I think it didn’t go down this way because both Colorado and Nashville had Ottawa over a barrel with their cap situation and Turris not wanting to re-sign there. Everyone thought Sakic was in tough **** with Duchene, but he leveraged Ottawa’s particular situation to his advatange, and kept Dorion in the dark about Colorado wanting Nashville’s pieces, so all he saw was an offer for Turris that involved futures and no C - not realizing he could flip them for Duchene. This “3-way” was actually two separate trades since no party mixed assets until after an initial trade was made.

Sakic demanded Turris+ (with cap dump) for Duchene, and that seemed reasonable to Ottawa if Turris was un-signed, but then Sakic flipped Turris (signed) for even more pieces to Nashville, costing Ottawa more than they should have had to give up, and cheating them out of Duchene+Girard/OTT 1st or Duchene+Kamenev/Bowers.

What kind of backwards logic says Girard had nothing to do with Duchene? The piece that they got for Duchene landed them Girard.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

It was massacre and it could get worse If Ottawa keeps their 2018 pick (top10 pick) and then Karlsson leaves next off-season. This could end up very badly for Ottawa. The worst case scenario they will end up giving Colorado top5 pick in 2019 draft.

Ottawa needs to get rid of their owner. Easier said than done.

 

[Mr Zappalanche]

One of the worst trades in NHL history. Ottawa is done for possibly a decade +.

One of the worst posts in the HF history.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Except we have enough information to know that all this is incorrect. First off Turris was more than willing to sign in Ottawa but he was looking for term but Ottawa was not willing to go any more than 5 years, every report that came out said they agreed on value but term was the cause for separation. Turris ended up signing for a very reasonable 6 years and theres the whole 'they didn't offer that', 'they didn't bring that to the table' thing that happened. Secondly there is no cap situation here, not even a budget situation, well besides Hammond being added to offset for Duchene's higher salary. The money going in and money going out for Ottawa is the same had they signed Turris and not made the trade. Last and the most far fetched theory is Sakic's masterplan to keep Dorion in the dark. Ottawa and Colorado had come to terms in the weeks prior to the trade being finalized, the thing holding up the deal was Colorado agreeing to terms with a third party to flip Turris to. Dorion actually suggested to Sakic that he keep Turris and move him later in the season, but Joe didn't want to do that to Turris, and that came straight from the mouth of Dorion. It's well documented how this trade came to be, theres absolutely no reason to be aimlessly speculating like this.

It's also well documented that Dorion was after Duchene well before any contract negations with Turris took place. After the trade went down Ian Mendes came out and said that Dorion had personally told him in the past that he told Joe Sakic that if Duchene were ever available, he was interested, this would have been before any trade demand. You are overthinking this, it's quite simple. Dorion paid a premium price to acquire a player he had coveted,

Give this a read:


and #8 here briefly touches on contract negotiations


Both topics are well covered and if you research them you will find more on them but this two articles were easy to find, are reliable and give you a pretty good idea.

I don’t see how any of this contradicts what I said.

Dorion could have traded Turris to Nashville first and got futures. Then he could have used those futures to get Duchene. Why did he pay more than he had to if he could have just done this?

Turris wouldn’t re-sign - whether it was over term, money, or anything else doesn’t matter. It was well documented, and other GMs new it; there was no leverage for Dorion. Edit: There was no option to re-sign Turris, and the fact that the deal was cap neutral leads me to my next point.

Budget absolutely is an issue. 68M seems to be the magic number often cited about Ottawa's internal budget. Hammond had to be moved to make it cap-neutral, and we both agree on that, as does Friedman. The first or the third+(Edit: more than likely the 3rd+) might have been used to make Hammond go away, because otherwise they wouldn’t be able to fit Duchene under the internal cap. Either way, Dorion needed to pay to move Hammond. If he didn’t, then this trade looks even worse considering the difference between Turris and Duchene is not a 1st, Bowers, a 3rd, and Hammond.

As for Girard having nothing to do with Duchene, Girard never once touched Ottawa hands, and Turris was exchanged for Girard. He was effectively in a second trade that took place once Turris had already been moved. Including Girard as a lost piece for Ottawa makes no sense; Duchene was only second-hand involvement, and my point was that it was silly to hold that against Dorion for somehow also trading Girard for Duchene.

All in all, Dorion could have gotten more if he just looked at the final trade. It’s like when a poster makes a 3-way trade, but doesn’t consider why it’s necessary for a middle-man to be there. Yes, it took all three agreeing with their respective partner to move assets so Turris wouldn’t be in limbo, but Dorion could have just as easily traded with Nashville first, and then traded with Colorado - saving him some pieces, and potentially saving the first or even getting to keep one of Girard/Bowers/Kamenev. If Dorion were aware/in control, then he would have read the situation and put himself in a better spot.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

it was laughable at the time and still is.

I still am in shock what Sakic got in return. It's funny how much heat Sakic got on here and with media for taking so long to trade Duchene... I guess people just feel GM's should just give guys away for very little the second they ask to be traded?

 

[Jarey Curry]

i know it is still early but just look at this trade.
The avs gave up a guy that is very overrated in duchene. What they got for a second line centre?

A first
A second
A third
Shane Bowers (2017 first)
Sam Girard (super stud d prospect)
Vladislav kamenev (future second line centre)
Andrew Hammond (solid backup goalie, meh)

I mean kamenev alone could end up better than duchene, who knows. I think Girard is going to be special. Plus basically two first rounders with Bowers involved...

I think turris alone is worth more than duchene if you look at their success on their new teams..

How did Sakic ever pull this one out?? Everyone was ripping him over mishandling the duchene situation but wow!!! He murdered it.

Could this be one of the best trades ever for the avs since they have been a team? Or even from the Quebec days...

Duchene should be as good as Johansen in as important role as him, that's how capable he is... And now a guy with all that skill is made to look so much less than he was supposed to be. I will always like him as a player but I can honestly say im glad the avs moved on