Speculation: Duchene trade looking back

[Qward]

Ottawa traded their 3rd to get rid of Hammond. The owner is cutting costs back so much that the people that work in the office have to take out their own garbage because he fired the cleaning crew. You cant afford to pay a guy $1,500,000 America, to play on your farm team with an owner and budget like that

 

[terrible dee]

Duchene is a first line center. Not top 10 or even top 15, but still a first line center.

gimme a break Duch CAN'T PLAY CENTER, THAT'S WHY HIS TEAMS SUCK

He's winger who takes faceoffs, that doesn't cut it

If I knew this was going to happen, why didn't Dorian? I called this exact scenario

 

[Patagonia]

I don’t see how any of this contradicts what I said.

Dorion could have traded Turris to Nashville first and got futures. Then he could have used those futures to get Duchene. Why did he pay more than he had to if he could have just done this?

Turris wouldn’t re-sign - whether it was over term, money, or anything else doesn’t matter. It was well documented, and other GMs new it; there was no leverage for Dorion. Edit: There was no option to re-sign Turris, and the fact that the deal was cap neutral leads me to my next point.

Budget absolutely is an issue. 68M seems to be the magic number often cited about Ottawa's internal budget. Hammond had to be moved to make it cap-neutral, and we both agree on that, as does Friedman. The first or the third+(Edit: more than likely the 3rd+) might have been used to make Hammond go away, because otherwise they wouldn’t be able to fit Duchene under the internal cap. Either way, Dorion needed to pay to move Hammond. If he didn’t, then this trade looks even worse considering the difference between Turris and Duchene is not a 1st, Bowers, a 3rd, and Hammond.

As for Girard having nothing to do with Duchene, Girard never once touched Ottawa hands, and Turris was exchanged for Girard. He was effectively in a second trade that took place once Turris had already been moved. Including Girard as a lost piece for Ottawa makes no sense; Duchene was only second-hand involvement, and my point was that it was silly to hold that against Dorion for somehow also trading Girard for Duchene.

All in all, Dorion could have gotten more if he just looked at the final trade. It’s like when a poster makes a 3-way trade, but doesn’t consider why it’s necessary for a middle-man to be there. Yes, it took all three agreeing with their respective partner to move assets so Turris wouldn’t be in limbo, but Dorion could have just as easily traded with Nashville first, and then traded with Colorado - saving him some pieces, and potentially saving the first or even getting to keep one of Girard/Bowers/Kamenev. If Dorion were aware/in control, then he would have read the situation and put himself in a better spot.

The problem with analyzing this trade is the manner Turris was traded and signed. Was it a sign and trade by the AVs or trade directly to the Preds?

Sens -> AVs -> Preds?

or

Sens -> Preds -> AVs -> Sens

I believe this was the 1st option, but Dorian should have done the second option and made the trade directly with the Preds.

Preds badly wanted either Duchene (won’t be traded within the division) or Turris, so they’re willing to pay fair value. Dorian lazily dumped Turris + 1st + 3rd + Bowers (2017- 1st) + Hammond, too much for basically 1 extra year with Duchene.

Sakic deserves all the praise, he smartly flipped an expiring or resigned (depends on the view) Turris for additional assets. Poile simply paid market value Girard+ Kamenev + 2nd for Turris Signed at $6M for 6 seasons. Dorian is the loser, he could have done the same sign and trade, but dumped Turris for pennies.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Why are people saying Ottawa didn't give up any high end pieces to get Duchene? Turris is probably better than Duchene lol. Plus they gave up a 1st, a 3rd and Shane Bowers on top of it.

 

[triggrman]

I still love this trade from a Preds perspective. We gave up a guy that was likely going to be sent back to juniors, an AHL player and a 2nd round pick, for a top 6 center.

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

Duchene will turn it around eventually. It just may not be in Ottawa. He's still a low-mid range #1c.

Yea, not anymore he's not

 

[Drij]

Ottawa traded their 3rd to get rid of Hammond. The owner is cutting costs back so much that the people that work in the office have to take out their own garbage because he fired the cleaning crew. You cant afford to pay a guy $1,500,000 America, to play on your farm team with an owner and budget like that

I find that hard to believe...

 

[StreetHawk]

I still love this trade from a Preds perspective. We gave up a guy that was likely going to be sent back to juniors, an AHL player and a 2nd round pick, for a top 6 center.

Preds are in win now mode, and depth down the middle is vital for a long run. Have to give to get. Trade makes sense given where they are. Trade from the Avs POV made sense as they got prospects for a guy who wanted out and they finished in last place.

Ottawa, this was supposed to be a move to make them better and thus help convince Karlsson to re-sign. But, with the disappointment of the season and a good chance Ottawa begins sending guys out at the TDL, how much of the team will be left come the draft? Move too many NHL players for prospects and that could send the signal to Karlsson that it's time to move on and get traded at the draft. Then, that #1 pick that they owe Colorado becomes a very heavy price.

 

[Korpse]

I don’t see how any of this contradicts what I said.

Dorion could have traded Turris to Nashville first and got futures. Then he could have used those futures to get Duchene. Why did he pay more than he had to if he could have just done this?

Turris wouldn’t re-sign - whether it was over term, money, or anything else doesn’t matter. It was well documented, and other GMs new it; there was no leverage for Dorion. Edit: There was no option to re-sign Turris, and the fact that the deal was cap neutral leads me to my next point.

Budget absolutely is an issue. 68M seems to be the magic number often cited about Ottawa's internal budget. Hammond had to be moved to make it cap-neutral, and we both agree on that, as does Friedman. The first or the third+(Edit: more than likely the 3rd+) might have been used to make Hammond go away, because otherwise they wouldn’t be able to fit Duchene under the internal cap. Either way, Dorion needed to pay to move Hammond. If he didn’t, then this trade looks even worse considering the difference between Turris and Duchene is not a 1st, Bowers, a 3rd, and Hammond.

As for Girard having nothing to do with Duchene, Girard never once touched Ottawa hands, and Turris was exchanged for Girard. He was effectively in a second trade that took place once Turris had already been moved. Including Girard as a lost piece for Ottawa makes no sense; Duchene was only second-hand involvement, and my point was that it was silly to hold that against Dorion for somehow also trading Girard for Duchene.

All in all, Dorion could have gotten more if he just looked at the final trade. It’s like when a poster makes a 3-way trade, but doesn’t consider why it’s necessary for a middle-man to be there. Yes, it took all three agreeing with their respective partner to move assets so Turris wouldn’t be in limbo, but Dorion could have just as easily traded with Nashville first, and then traded with Colorado - saving him some pieces, and potentially saving the first or even getting to keep one of Girard/Bowers/Kamenev. If Dorion were aware/in control, then he would have read the situation and put himself in a better spot.

If Dorion comes out and meets the Turris demand of 7 or 8 years he absolutely would have signed but he didn't 5 was the highest he was willing to go. I wonder whether a 6 year deal would have gotten it done or not but I question the seriousness of Dorion's intentions when he had Duchene in his back pocket. You could say the same for Turris and his side about not bringing 6 years to the table but theres literally nothing out there thats been reported that said Turris wouldn't re-sign in Ottawa.

Yeah budget is an issue for Ottawa and it was the third that they paid for Colorado to take Hammond but the budget issue wasn't used by any GMs in an attempt to leverage Turris out of Ottawa. I was under the impression thats more so what you were referring too.

Maybe thats the way Dorion should have gone about the trade, but its not and once he agreed with Colorado it would be difficult to pull back from that agreement and make the deal happen. Dorion paid a hefty price and I don't disagree that if he handles it differently perhaps he could have gotten more or given up less. It's your theory of deception and leverage that I disagree with, based on facts that are out there.

 

[Stephen]

The trade didn't make any sense at the time and considering the meltdown the Sens had in the aftermath, looks like a Cliff Fletcher futures for now deal gone sideways. Colorado will be that much stronger for taking on Ottawa's first rounder, which could be a top 3 pick in 2019.

 

[Freudian]

Avs got good value but there is always developmental risk with prospects.

What's more interesting will be to see if other GMs will take the stance of waiting until they get what they want in the future. It paid off for Sakic but it's certainly a very risky strategy.

 

[Hasbro]

The only real wait n' sees on this deal are if Duchene can somehow become an all-star and make the cost expended by Ottawa justifiable and where the 1st rounder lands.

I really think Dutch will go the way Recchi in Montreal and Kessel in Toronto where the bonanza pulled down by the other team becomes an albatross.

That undefined 1st really puts the Sens in limbo for the next two years.

 

[Rebels57]

Duchene will turn it around in year 2 with Ottawa.

Entire team needs to wipe the slate clean.

Colorado always won the trade but it will look better once a few of those pieces Colorado receives don't pan out and Duchene picks it up.

 

[Hasbro]

Avs got good value but there is always developmental risk with prospects.

Even if the Avs screwed everyone of those up. It's still a massive opportunity cost to the Sens. The Bruins squandering Seguin and Hamilton doesn't do the Leafs any good.

 

[Castle8130]

Ottawa is just a crap shoot now and no-one wants to be on their team. Turris didn't, Karlsson doesn't, Hoffman doesn't, and probably even Brassard based off some trade rumors around him. A horrible system that will get destroyed soon lol. Especially if Duchene doesn't resign which I don't think he will.

 

[CB Joe]

Yea, not anymore he's not

Sure he is. He's still a good player just a bad place right now.

 

[JLo217]

Just so we’re clear....otttawa only gave up this...

Kyle Turris (upcoming UFA)
Andrew Hammond (borderline NHL backup goalie)
Shane Bowers
2018 first-round pick
2019 third-round pick.

None of the players Colorado received were top end. Even when the trade was made the 1st was middling.
Girard is decent but he was never considered an“A” prospect, neither was Kamenev.
This trade is the perfect example of quality for quantity. But imo, I never considered Duchene quality.

Only?

Shane Bowers is looking like a surprise addition as well. He is the most interesting piece of this trade as of now for me.

 

[JLo217]

wouldn't have called Sam a stud prospect before I saw him play on regular basis, but he is doing absolutely amazing things as an 19 year old, and he is a blue chipper.

Shhhh... He was traded to the Avs so he's gotta be an awful player. He's only good on other teams and theres no way the Avs will get him in a trade...

This narrative has played out more than once for Avs fans.

When dealing ROR we were told we'd never get Zads he's untouchable and to good to trade. Then he gets traded. Then HF says Zads is garbage and will never play more than a third pairing role lol.

Saw the same for Girard and Kamenev before the trade. Avs got them both and now they're worst players after the trade. Compher and Zads are looking great and have helped the depth immensely. Girard, Kamenev and Bowers alone will be solid fixtures.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Duchene isn’t bad. Watch some Senators games. He’s an impact player almost every night and plays hard.

The price they paid was too much whether they get good or bad Duchene.

 

[JLo217]

I hope they resign him... He is one of the few players that brings it ... he is top 3 in the best players the team has. Park the results this year. He is a highly skilled dynamic player that clearly cares

About his hair, his dogs, his public perception in the local media in a small market, and his country music.

 

[AvsGuy]

It's not even as bad as people make it out to be. Often it gets overlooked, but it's Nashville having really good success with Turris that makes this trade look bad.

I think it’s more that Duchene wanted a move to a playoff team, which Colorado currently is and Ottawa currently isn’t, that makes it look bad.

Value-wise this always a wild deal, but it’s the context right now that makes Duchene look like more of flop than he has been.

 

[John Eichel da GOAT]

If were evaluating it right now, Colorado wins by a mile. Nashville next, and Ottawa lost bad.

I would have traded Duchene for nothing if it meant turning MacKinnon on like it did. Everything else is a bonus.

 

[paulhiggins]

Duchene is a first line center. Not top 10 or even top 15, but still a first line center.

I would like to see the list of first line NHL centers making 6 million that have 13 points.

 

[Brock Radunske]

It's just too bad Dorion protected the first. Otherwise, it would be REALLY bananas

After the Kessel fiasco, any team with even an outside shot of not making the playoffs usually protect their first to some degree.

 

[Hasbro]

After the Kessel fiasco, any team with even an outside shot of not making the playoffs usually protect their first to some degree.

The only draw back to the deal is that it's not a loathsome bunch like the Canucks, where you could revel in them getting Burked on a a draft pick.