Speculation: Duchene trade looking back

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Mortiest Morty

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Sam is killing it in the NHL

Is he? I know he's on a nice streak these past 7 or 8 games, but prior to that, he was pointless for about 20 straight games and while he still looked decent in some of those games, he also looked pretty bad in quite a few. If I remember right, he only has a couple of even strength points in Colorado. I'd say he's had an okay season, looked decent at times, pretty bad at times, and occasionally really good. I definitely wouldn't say he's "killing it". Not bad for a 19 year old, especially a tiny 19 year old, but I can't really see any justification to call him blue chip.
 

branch

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Just so we’re clear....otttawa only gave up this...

Kyle Turris (upcoming UFA)
Andrew Hammond (borderline NHL backup goalie)
Shane Bowers
2018 first-round pick
2019 third-round pick.

None of the players Colorado received were top end. Even when the trade was made the 1st was middling.
Girard is decent but he was never considered an“A” prospect, neither was Kamenev.
This trade is the perfect example of quality for quantity. But imo, I never considered Duchene quality.

But but but Ottawa got hosed, they're done for a decade!

Except they kept all their quality pieces
 

Ivan13

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But but but Ottawa got hosed, they're done for a decade!

Except they kept all their quality pieces
So after listening how Turris is great for years and how he is comparable to Matt, now we are to believe Sens kept all their quality pieces?
 

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So after listening how Turris is great for years and hiw he is comparable to Matt, now we are to believe Sens kept all their quality pieces?

Turris is really good but he wasn't going to be signed and Ottawa kept all of their best prospects, save the 1st. But any deal with Duchene was going to cost a 1st round pick. And Duchene has been producing fine, it's the rest of the team that is shit.
 

belair

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They got a lot of decent mid-tier prospects. There's a good shot the deal works out for them, but I wouldn't jump the gun just yet. Duchene won't suck forever. He's still relatively young.
 

Ivan13

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Turris is really good but he wasn't going to be signed and Ottawa kept all of their best prospects, save the 1st. But any deal with Duchene was going to cost a 1st round pick. And Duchene has been producing fine, it's the rest of the team that is ****.
So they did lose a high quality piece? Also, what guarantees Duchene stays? After the trade went down he said he wanted to play for a winner and a playoff team, sure as hell doesn't look like that will be the case in Ottawa unless things change dramatically.
 

Toews2Bickell

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Nov 24, 2013
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Sakic hit a home run on the deal. It was obvious that Duchene had no future with the club, Sakic stayed patient and got what he wanted when everybody was saying just get him out of there already. I'm still shocked he was able to pull it off. Other GMs have to be so annoyed with Ottawa since sellers will use that horseshit price they paid for Duchene to set the price for TDL acquisitions.
 

FerrisRox

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Sep 17, 2003
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i know it is still early but just look at this trade.
The avs gave up a guy that is very overrated in duchene. What they got for a second line centre?

A first
A second
A third
Shane Bowers (2017 first)
Sam Girard (super stud d prospect)
Vladislav kamenev (future second line centre)
Andrew Hammond (solid backup goalie, meh)

I mean kamenev alone could end up better than duchene, who knows. I think Girard is going to be special. Plus basically two first rounders with Bowers involved...

I think turris alone is worth more than duchene if you look at their success on their new teams..

How did Sakic ever pull this one out?? Everyone was ripping him over mishandling the duchene situation but wow!!! He murdered it.

Could this be one of the best trades ever for the avs since they have been a team? Or even from the Quebec days...

You are "looking back" at a trade from November???
 
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ZiGOODejad

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Nov 30, 2013
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this deal looks real bad for Ottawa great for Colorado and Nashville. I wonder how he feels saying he wanted to play playoff hockey and then watch his new team plummet in the standings
 

JoemAvs

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Is he? I know he's on a nice streak these past 7 or 8 games, but prior to that, he was pointless for about 20 straight games and while he still looked decent in some of those games, he also looked pretty bad in quite a few. If I remember right, he only has a couple of even strength points in Colorado. I'd say he's had an okay season, looked decent at times, pretty bad at times, and occasionally really good. I definitely wouldn't say he's "killing it". Not bad for a 19 year old, especially a tiny 19 year old, but I can't really see any justification to call him blue chip.

IMO he has been the best player for all three teams involved. No joke.

And I was the one that really wanted to send him back to juniors a week or so after the trade before he hit the 9 game mark.
I was wrong.

Kid is a waterbug that is 5'10 and weighs 164 lbs. He already is probably the smartest player the Avs have in their own zone on our roster and has everyone else beat when it comes to his decisionmaking. Which is crazy given how young he is and that his calling card should be his offense.

Sure he sometimes will look bad simply because of his physical limitations but it is unbelievable how many tiny small smart plays he makes per game that helps the Avs get the puck out of the zone or start the breakout.

His reputations is that of a small, undersized offensive wizard and yet he has easily impressed me the most in our own zone.
He is already better than any of our other Ds when it comes to running a powerplay (that is why he is racking up the points lately) but that is only the icing on the top.

He and Zadorovs emergence are one of the biggest reasons why the Avs actually look like a good team because they have all of a sudden turned the Avs perenial weakness on the blueline into a strength.

He will hit a wall sooner or later and he still has a long way to go before he reaches his potential but his play so far has been amazing.

There is a reason why many Avs fans are all of a sudden comfortable with moving what is probably a top5 offensive-Dman in this league in Tyson Barrie. That reason has been Girard.


That said. Duchene is still better than Turris IMO and given their respective contract status, the deal was not that bad.
Problem is that Boucher and the Sens were already on the verge of imploding once he joined and are in deep trouble now.

If not for the Sens and Boucher going into full meltdown mode (which IMO has little to do with Duchene), this trade could be a win-win-win for everyone (NSH really does not need Girard anyways no matter how good he turns out to be).

That top10 protection really sucks. 2019 forward class is riduculous as well but odds are that the Sens will bounce back in 2019...
 

Pierce Hawthorne

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It's just too bad Dorion protected the first. Otherwise, it would be REALLY bananas

Still could be with that unprotected 2019 1st.


Both the 2018 and 2019 drafts are pretty deep to begin with but also with some really nice high end prospects at the top of the draft.


Avs wont have a change at Dahlin/Svech/Zadina with the Sens pick because it's protected. But completely unprotected in 2019 with the likes of Hughes, Kakko, Cozens, etc.


Even if the pick ended up at #31 in the draft, I think the Avs win the deal easily. The further that pick moves up, the better the trade gets for us.
 

ismelofhockey

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Oct 22, 2017
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So after listening how Turris is great for years and how he is comparable to Matt, now we are to believe Sens kept all their quality pieces?

I hated the trade as a Sens fan. I kept repeating before it happened that Duchene, if he was even better than Turris, was at most worth a 3rd rounder on top of Kyle. But the Sens did keep their best pieces from their prospect pool. They lost a good piece in Turris, and they lost Bowers and a 1st, so they lost the trade in dramatic fashion. But they kept all of their best prospects, so they have that going for them, which is nice...
 

Mortiest Morty

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IMO he has been the best player for all three teams involved. No joke.

I've probably only watched about 10-12 full games of him with Colorado and all 5 with Nashville, but I'm not seeing what you are. Yes, he does make plenty of smart plays, but he also throws in a few dumb ones from time-to-time and he's outmatched strength wise against virtually every NHL forward. He has the easiest deployment and faces the easiest competition of all Avs D-men yet he has a negative goal differential and his possession numbers are worse than everyone but Barrie. And he's added only 3 even strength points despite the highest OZone start %. I understand being excited because he's young, and of course this site does have the word future right in the title, but let's chill a bit.
 

Pierce Hawthorne

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I've probably only watched about 10-12 full games of him with Colorado and all 5 with Nashville, but I'm not seeing what you are. Yes, he does make plenty of smart plays, but he also throws in a few dumb ones from time-to-time and he's outmatched strength wise against virtually every NHL forward. He has the easiest deployment and faces the easiest competition of all Avs D-men yet he has a negative goal differential and his possession numbers are worse than everyone but Barrie. And he's added only 3 even strength points despite the highest OZone start %. I understand being excited because he's young, and of course this site does have the word future right in the title, but let's chill a bit.



If that's what you believe, you're not actually watching the games and just saying so to try and act intelligent.


The guy is small on the ice but he's so strong on his skates that he outmuscles a lot of NHL forwards because of this. Go watch some footage of the Avs and Stars last couple games. Girard owns Radulov in the board battles pretty much every time in every game.
 

Vincenzo Arelliti

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The only way this deal makes any sense is if the 1st was to take Hammond. Turris +Bowers + 3rd for Duchene makes more sense historically, and makes this trade look okay. Otherwise, the difference between Duchene and Turris was not and will never be a 1st, 3rd, Bowers, and Hammond.
 

Mortiest Morty

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If that's what you believe, you're not actually watching the games and just saying so to try and act intelligent.


The guy is small on the ice but he's so strong on his skates that he outmuscles a lot of NHL forwards because of this. Go watch some footage of the Avs and Stars last couple games. Girard owns Radulov in the board battles pretty much every time in every game.

I didn't say he lost all of his battles, or even any for that matter, and I didn't say he wasn't strong on his skates. Almost every NHL forward is physically stronger than him, that's pretty much a fact. Positioning, leverage, stick work and even smarts are plenty important in board battles etc.
 

seafoam

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The thing is, An NHL GM (who’s team went to the Conference Finals last year) values filling their current lineup needs (especially for a top six C/top three D) over the “raw value” of a package of picks and prospects.

It’s funny because packages of picks and prospects do in fact have a lot of value (sometimes more valuable than the yeild) and I think the GMs do believe that themselves when they make these trades. But at that point in time, for a GM who thinks they contending, these packages of picks and prospect provide no value to their current NHL lineup, which is the paramount focus of the their motives that year.

They know that they are giving up more than what they are getting back, but it’s because they are so desperate to improve their masterpiece, some of whicu they have spent years crafting.

Obviously, Duchene hasn’t really worked out because the Senators are not in a playoff position by Mid-June, but that’s the risk you take.
 

StreetHawk

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Just so we’re clear....otttawa only gave up this...

Kyle Turris (upcoming UFA)
Andrew Hammond (borderline NHL backup goalie)
Shane Bowers
2018 first-round pick
2019 third-round pick.

None of the players Colorado received were top end. Even when the trade was made the 1st was middling.
Girard is decent but he was never considered an“A” prospect, neither was Kamenev.
This trade is the perfect example of quality for quantity. But imo, I never considered Duchene quality.

The reason that the trade looks bad for Ottawa is because they are going to miss the playoffs this season. Even if they are bottom 10 and keep the pick, that instantly means that the 2019 pick is unprotected. And with last year seeing philly, nj, Dallas win the lottery when they were seeded outside the bottom 6 should be a bit scary for sense fans.

Plus, there is a decision to be made with karlsson, which the sens don't control. What does karlsson want to do? Does he want to remain in Ottawa long term or does he want to leave. If he opts to leave, no chance Ottawa gets NHL ready talent equal to karlsson. Meaning that next season, the sens could be in the bottom.

Plus, they only gained 1 extra year on Duchene before they have to extend him. Worst case with turris, you deal him at the tdl and keep Bowers and your 2 picks and add Girard, kemenov and a pick from Nashville as an example of a trade.

Was then upgrade in Duchene really worth turris ( or the assets he would return in a trade) plus Bowers and a 1st which you have no idea where it will land given the karlsson situation?
 

Vincenzo Arelliti

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Losing a 1st, 3rd, Hammond, and Bowers to upgrade from Turris to Duchene is a steep price to pay. Hammond as a cap dump, and Turris wanting more than Duchene is making are the only reason this made any sense. Still a very steep price to pay.

Playoffs or not.
 

StreetHawk

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Losing a 1st, 3rd, Hammond, and Bowers to upgrade from Turris to Duchene is a steep price to pay. Hammond as a cap dump, and Turris wanting more than Duchene is making are the only reason this made any sense. Still a very steep price to pay.

Playoffs or not.
And Duchene won't want more than what he is making now when his deal is up?

That upgrade didn't seem worth the price. But, likely it was done to make the team stronger to convince karlsson to stay.

But, could have the opposite effect if the sens sell big at the TDL.
 
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