Does William Nylander score 30 goals next year

[Kelly]

Again, something BruinLGVA leaves out is that he initially predicted the Leafs would regress due to the Leafs rookies not duplicating their rookie seasons, our injury luck, and somehow we wouldn't score as much.

Nylander is on pace for 2 less points than last season, and is starting to heat up -- and Marner is on pace for 6 points less of last year and is also heating up -- and here he is thumping his chest halfway through the season .. hilarious

Maybe you should wait till the season is actually done to, you know, pat yourself on the back for getting half of your prediction right.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

The lesson for every fanbase is not to jump the gun and assume that every young player will improve every year. It's not just Leaf fans who do this obviously and the excitement over the so called Big Three last year was understandable, but it's not that surprising that both Nylander and Marner have struggled at times this year. That's what you should expect in many cases from second year players.

 

[Menzinger]

So, "cold streaks" (an interesting concept for someone only considering "underlying numbers"...) are not part of a season? A "blue chip prospect" can't have ebbs and flows in his production after all, right?
And if you take out the bad parts, he is actually having a better year. Do you hear yourself?

Bottom line, I said that when a rookie of Nylander's level (= a notch or two below the McDavid / Matthews level) comes in already at 60 points, it's difficult (= less likely, therefore) to improve on such already high levels right away.
That is further compounded by the fact that getting to 70 points is a matter that saw only 19 players do it in 16-17 (that's 0.61 player per team on average...).
All this doesn't exactly spell "easy stuff" and therefore, in my opinion less likely to happen (surprise, surprise... It's exactly the case till now...). Which is what I said. Now tell me again how this doesn't sound logical...

That’s not what’s i said at all. There are obviously highs and lows for every player, however what Nylander experienced for part of last season was a dramatic variation from what his normal sh% should be and we’ll beyond typical game to game changes.

And so you admit your analysis/prediction of Nylander (or any of the Leafs players) wasn’t based on a review of their actual play but rather based on a broad generalization. In other words, a random guess....

 

[BruinLVGA]

Again, something BruinLGVA leaves out is that he initially predicted the Leafs would regress due to the Leafs rookies not duplicating their rookie seasons, our injury luck, and somehow we wouldn't score as much.

Nylander is on pace for 2 less points than last season, and is starting to heat up -- and Marner is on pace to match his points total of last year and is also heating up -- and here he is thumping his chest halfway through the season .. hilarious

Maybe you should wait till the season is actually done to, you know, pat yourself on the back for getting half of your prediction right.

You are twisting what I said and out right lying for some.

I said that if all those extraordinary things that happened at the same time would not happen or partially happen (and, see my post #147, they're not happening. Not even one. I am right about all those so far), there was a strong chance for the Leafs to miss the playoffs, since they only scraped in by 1 point even with the stars all aligning perfectly.
What I didn't foresee (and again I didn't "leave it out". I actually mentioned it in post #147, when I wrote "0 for 1 in external stuff that would affect the Leafs standings"), was the entire remainder of the Atlantic Division to be so bad. Only 1 out of those 5 teams at the bottom of the ENTIRE conference performing as they have in the past years instead of being abysmal, and that too would probably be correct.

I never predicted that you wouldn't score as much. That's a lie.

Nylander is on pace for 57 points over 82, as compared to 61 over 82 the year before. Marner is on pace for 56 over 82, as compared to 65 over 82 in 16-17.
These are lower. And if you put them in context, where the league is seeing a SIGNIFICANT increase in production (I remember a poster said that on average it's +16.4%), they're even worse.
If it's true that the average production is +16.4% (if anyone has the number as of now, please mention it), then to have the SAME production as last year, they would need the 16-17 totals PLUS 16.4%. That means, over 82 games... Nylander 71 points... Marner 76. This is math, it doesn't lie.

I will wait for the season to end to pat myself on the back. But at mid-season awards, I did quite well.

 

[Cleatus]

The backtracking is hilarious, now leafs fans will try to use logic that everyone used in the off-season as to why they wouldn't all be putting up 15-20 point increases. Maybe if the blinders were off earlier you wouldn't be looking so foolish.

Not like it matters to most of us if Nylander hits 30 goals. Him and the Leafs both have a very bright future ahead.

Fact of the matter is a bump like this is just pure pettiness from bitter (and probably jealous) fans.

Just because Edmonton and Boston give up on their stars when the going gets tough doesn’t mean the Leafs should follow suit.

 

[BruinLVGA]

That’s not what’s i said at all. There are obviously highs and lows for every player, however what Nylander experienced for part of last season was a dramatic variation from what his normal sh% should be and we’ll beyond typical game to game changes.

And so you admit your analysis/prediction of Nylander (or any of the Leafs players) wasn’t based on a review of their actual play but rather based on a broad generalization. In other words, a random guess....

At the end you are still saying that a "cold streak" (the "dramatic variation of shooting percentage") shouldn't be part of the performance of a player? I don't understand.

My prediction was based on the fact that a) Nylander / Marner are not on the level of Matthews / McDavid (= pretty much surefire bets about individual performance) and b) the fact that the level of production expected by Leafs fans for Nylander / Marner was a rather exclusive club last year (only 19 players at 70 or more points).
Expecting ALL of Nylander, Marner and Matthews to hit those lofty targets seemed unseasonably optimistic and I was skeptical about it.
So far, it turns out that I am right. Now call it what you want, be my guest.

 

[Sky04]

Not like it matters to most of us if Nylander hits 30 goals. Him and the Leafs both have a very bright future ahead.

Fact of the matter is a bump like this is just pure pettiness from bitter (and probably jealous) fans.

Just because Edmonton and Boston give up on their stars when the going gets tough doesn’t mean the Leafs should follow suit.

Why would I be jealous when TB is a much better team? But then again some of you guys were arguing Nylander was better than Kucherov so I think bumping this to put you guys in place is deserved It's funny that you use your teams place in the standings to assert yourself though.

Yes I understand you guys were jealous but now that the 12 game "pace" as drastically fallen off it's funny to see you duck. Remember when leafs fans were non-stop about Nylander being better than Gaudreau? All in hiding now.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

Again, something BruinLGVA leaves out is that he initially predicted the Leafs would regress due to the Leafs rookies not duplicating their rookie seasons, our injury luck, and somehow we wouldn't score as much.

Nylander is on pace for 2 less points than last season, and is starting to heat up -- and Marner is on pace for 6 points less of last year and is also heating up -- and here he is thumping his chest halfway through the season .. hilarious

Maybe you should wait till the season is actually done to, you know, pat yourself on the back for getting half of your prediction right.

Marner and Nylander started slow and the Leafs started hot. Since then, Marner and Nylander have been hot and the Leafs have been incredibly average.

 

[BruinLVGA]

Not like it matters to most of us if Nylander hits 30 goals. Him and the Leafs both have a very bright future ahead.

Fact of the matter is a bump like this is just pure pettiness from bitter (and probably jealous) fans.

Just because Edmonton and Boston give up on their stars when the going gets tough doesn’t mean the Leafs should follow suit.

Exhibit A for no theory and/or no logic and/or no stats that I was talking about. Dude A says "I think that player X won't have Y performance because...", Dude B(lue & white) reply to this: "you are jealous!". I rest my case.

 

[Sky04]

Marner and Nylander started slow and the Leafs started hot. Since then, Marner and Nylander have been hot and the Leafs have been incredibly average.

Nylander started with 9 points in 8 games and we were hearing about the 80 point season he was going to put up...

 

[Cleatus]

Why would I be jealous when TB is a much better team? But then again some of you guys were arguing Nylander was better than Kucherov so I think bumping this to put you guys in place is deserved

You’re not the one who bumped this initially, so the jealousy comment doesn’t apply to you. I’m a big fan of Kucherov, Stamkos, Hedman, and I really miss Stralman on the Leafs, so no ill will towards TB from me.

And anyone who said Nylander > Kucherov after last year is not even worth bringing up because that’s just a dumb statement. That’s like me saying all TB fans are dumb and deserve to be blindly hated on when only a few say Dotchin is a clean player.

 

[Cleatus]

Exhibit A for no theory and/or no logic and/or no stats that I was talking about. Dude A says "I think that player X won't have Y performance because...", Dude B(lue & white) reply to this: "you are jealous!". I rest my case.

It’s okay man, maybe the Bruins will win a game against the Leafs in the playoffs. Save your blind hatred for that time maybe.

 

[Sky04]

You’re not the one who bumped this initially, so the jealousy comment doesn’t apply to you. I’m a big fan of Kucherov, Stamkos, Hedman, and I really miss Stralman on the Leafs, so no ill will towards TB from me.

And anyone who said Nylander > Kucherov after last year is not even worth bringing up because that’s just a dumb statement. That’s like me saying all TB fans are dumb and deserve to be blindly hated on when only a few say Dotchin is a clean player.

This makes no sense and is the opposite of what I'm trying to say.

You act all superior to Flames fans because your teams higher standings?

So if I say Namestnikov is better than Marner and Nylander because he's outscoring them, you can rebute with facts and I can say you're wrong and just jealous, my teams better than yours end of story? Considering you know, that's pretty much your argument here.

Exhibit A:

It’s okay man, maybe the Bruins will win a game against the Leafs in the playoffs. Save your blind hatred for that time maybe.

Even though the Bruins handed the Leafs one of the most embarrassing losses in history.

 

[Cleatus]

This makes no sense and is the opposite of what I'm trying to say.

You act all superior to Flames fans because your teams higher standings?

So if I say Namestnikov is better than Marner and Nylander because he's outscoring them, you can rebute with facts and I can say you're wrong and just jealous, my teams better than yours end of story? Considering you know, that's pretty much your argument here.

Exhibit A:


Even though the Bruins handed the Leafs one of the most embarrassing losses in history.

Fine then, you guys are right. Nylander sucks, Leafs suck, Marner sucks, Matthews sucks, Babcock is senile, the past is all that matters, it’s still 2014, etc.

 

[BruinLVGA]

It’s okay man, maybe the Bruins will win a game against the Leafs in the playoffs. Save your blind hatred for that time maybe.

Exhibit B.

 

[BruinLVGA]

Fine then, you guys are right. Nylander sucks, Leafs suck, Marner sucks, Matthews sucks, Babcock is senile, the past is all that matters, it’s still 2014, etc.

Exhibit C.

No one is saying anything of the like you just said. Don't whine, debate.

 

[BruinLVGA]

The lesson for every fanbase is not to jump the gun and assume that every young player will improve every year. It's not just Leaf fans who do this obviously and the excitement over the so called Big Three last year was understandable, but it's not that surprising that both Nylander and Marner have struggled at times this year. That's what you should expect in many cases from second year players.

Darn right.

 

[McDavidCrushedLarkin]

This makes no sense and is the opposite of what I'm trying to say.

You act all superior to Flames fans because your teams higher standings?

So if I say Namestnikov is better than Marner and Nylander because he's outscoring them, you can rebute with facts and I can say you're wrong and just jealous, my teams better than yours end of story? Considering you know, that's pretty much your argument here.

Exhibit A:


Even though the Bruins handed the Leafs one of the most embarrassing losses in history.

 

[Cleatus]

Exhibit C.

No one is saying anything of the like you just said. Don't whine, debate.

What is there to debate exactly? That Nylander won’t score 30? That most of every fan base overrates their young talented players? Please enlighten me on the “debate” that’s happening since this thread was bumped.

Exhibit D) We all know this thread is just going to devolve into a hate on the Leafs thread, so I may as well start it early.

F*** the Leafs, I’m only a Jets fan now.

 

[BruinLVGA]

What is there to debate exactly? That Nylander won’t score 30? That most of every fan base overrates their young talented players? Please enlighten me on the “debate” that’s happening since this thread was bumped.

Exhibit D) We all know this thread is just going to devolve into a hate on the Leafs thread, so I may as well start it early.

F*** the Leafs, I’m only a Jets fan now.

There's everything to debate. As long as folks calmly discuss players / teams / standings / stats / etc etc, instead of getting all emotional.

I think that the Leafs are a fine team, with fine management. Nylander and Marner are good young players. Thinking that they're not guaranteed to have a linear progression in production isn't a slight to anyone or, even less, "hating".

 

[Cleatus]

There's everything to debate. As long as folks calmly discuss players / teams / standings / stats / etc etc, instead of getting all emotional.

I think that the Leafs are a fine team, with fine management. Nylander and Marner are good young players. Thinking that they're not guaranteed to have a linear progression in production isn't a slight to anyone or, even less, "hating".

I guess if you put it that way, it’s not hating at all. Sorry if I lumped you in with some of the other undesirables that lurk Leaf threads.

I still don’t really see any sort of worthy debate now though. I know fully well this was just a thread bump of pettiness from a disgruntled Oilers fan, hoping to start a hate parade.

Nylander more than likely won’t reach 30 this year, and a lot of Leaf fans in this were wrong and acted d*uchey, so that debate is over.

However, I say if Nylander hits 20+ goals, my initial prediction of 27 really isn’t bad enough to quote me in a post about wrong predictions.

And even if he only scores 15 goals this season, he’s still a hell of a player that any team in the league would want.

 

[eviohh26]

There's everything to debate. As long as folks calmly discuss players / teams / standings / stats / etc etc, instead of getting all emotional.

I think that the Leafs are a fine team, with fine management. Nylander and Marner are good young players. Thinking that they're not guaranteed to have a linear progression in production isn't a slight to anyone or, even less, "hating".

Quit hating on the Ice Pimp. LOL.

 

[Cleatus]

Quit hating on the Ice Pimp. LOL.

I like how people bring up my occupation on here like it’s a slight. Especially when their mothers have probably worked for me in the past.

 

[eviohh26]

I like how people bring up my occupation on here like it’s a slight. Especially when their mothers have probably worked for me in the past.

Would you like some cheese with that whine sir? You kinda remind me of that Leave Britney Spears alone girl.

 

[Cleatus]

Would you like some cheese with that whine sir? You kinda remind me of that Leave Britney Spears alone girl.

I’ll have some extra salt, and some spilled milk too please.

Then you leave me alone!