Does William Nylander score 30 goals next year

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

I think if plays with Matthews all year and they can build off the chemistry they showed last year then he can

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[CantLoseWithMatthews]

yeah 30-45 next year

 

[Halla]

No.

I'm gonna go with 27g/67pts

 

[Cotton]

He's capable, but I agree with Halla.

 

[Advanced stats]

32 - 45 -77.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

IIRC, his OISH% was on the low side so I suspect he'll get more points than last year. His SH% was a little low as well for his skill level.

He had 205 shots with a .107 SH%. It's not unreasonable to assume he shoots closer to .13 so even if his total shots is the same, that pushes it up to 27 goals. If he has 20 more shots on goal as well, that give him 29 goals.

I think, if healthy, it's going to be very close. I'm going to guess yes.

 

[Bedards Dad]

Low 30s. Probably around 32-35-67

 

[Morgs]

32g-50a-82p.

#ppg2018

 

[Fugazy]

Yes, in the low 30's.

 

[Voodoo Child]

No but close.

26-41-67

 

[HasbeenHallzy]

25-44-69Pts.... Good thing ee drafted Virtanen instead of this bust

 

[Brock Radunske]

Tough to say.
He has an insane shot but he seems to want to dish it more often than not.
I hope so, so I voted yes.

 

[tony d]

Yeah. I think he gets 32 goals and 41 assists for 73 points this year.

 

[1specter]

I'm gonna say yes. Nylander had very low 5v5 on-ice shooting % so he scored a lot less at even strength than he should have. Of course, he also scored a lot on the PP and will probably regress a bit there, but I think the increase at 5v5 will outweigh the drop in PP goals. The guy has a lethal shot, ridiculous hands and great patience. Now, that being said, if Nylander is flanking Matthews again (which he will be to start at least) I could see him focus more on being a playmaker in which case he may not hit the 30 mark.

 

[Plural]

Hmm, if he plays with Matthews I like his chances. Voted yes.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'm gonna say yes. Nylander had very low 5v5 on-ice shooting % so he scored a lot less at even strength than he should have. Of course, he also scored a lot on the PP and will probably regress a bit there, but I think the increase at 5v5 will outweigh the drop in PP goals. The guy has a lethal shot, ridiculous hands and great patience. Now, that being said, if Nylander is flanking Matthews again (which he will be to start at least) I could see him focus more on being a playmaker in which case he may not hit the 30 mark.

That's true, but you need to look at individual SH% when discussing goals, because OISH% is the shooting % of all players on the ice at that time, which means his overall points should improve due to more assists as well as goals.

Still, your point is correct in that his individual 5v5 SH% was low and should improve given how skilled he is.

 

[Kamiccolo]

I think he does. My reasoning is that he had a very bad start 5v5 and once the year went on his shot came out. He has a lethal wrister, not top end of the NHL or anything, but enough to easily hit 25 goals most years.

I think that with him scoring in the low 20's last year, if he can maintain a consistent shooting % he'll get damn close. If he is damn close, then I learned one thing. Don't count the kid out.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

sure why not

 

[GoJetsGo55]

Given enough PP time, yep.

 

[LeafsNation149]

He'll probably play with a LWer that can actually make a pass this year so he should be able to hit 30.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

If I'm reading Naturalstattrick correctly, here are the 5v5 # shots and individual SH% for each of the Leafs players last year (> 500min TOI), ranked by SH%. Does anybody think that Nylander's shooting % 5v5 will be closer to Zach Hyman and Matt Martin than it will be to the likes of Matthews, Bozak, Marner and JVR?

Auston*Matthews: 217, 13.82
James*van Riemsdyk: 176, 13.07
Connor*Brown: 112, 12.5
Mitchell*Marner: 124, 12.1
Tyler*Bozak: 98, 11.22
Leo*Komarov: 84, 10.71
Nikita*Soshnikov : 57, 8.77
Nazem*Kadri: 184, 8.7
Matt*Martin: 62, 8.06
William*Nylander: 140, 7.86
Zach*Hyman: 135, 4.44

And unlike Kadri, who had an absurdly high SH% on the PP, Nylander didn't, although he did lead forwards in # shots on the PP. Here are those numbers:

Nazem*Kadri: 38, 31.58
Leo*Komarov: 18, 22.22
Tyler*Bozak: 41, 17.07
Auston*Matthews: 44, 15.91
Connor*Brown: 13, 15.38
William*Nylander: 56, 14.29
James*van Riemsdyk: 51, 11.76
Mitchell*Marner: 36, 11.11

I think there is clear room for growth at ES, both in # shots and shooting % and don't see anything that says he should score less on the PP.

I think he hits 30+. Now, if he moves to center and has to take on more responsibility defensively, then maybe not, but if he's on the wing and is healthy, I think he gets it.

 

[Kamiccolo]

If I'm reading Naturalstattrick correctly, here are the 5v5 # shots and individual SH% for each of the Leafs players last year (> 500min TOI), ranked by SH%. Does anybody think that Nylander's shooting % 5v5 will be closer to Zach Hyman and Matt Martin that it will be to the likes of Matthews, Bozak, Marner and JVR?

Auston*Matthews: 217, 13.82
James*van Riemsdyk: 176, 13.07
Connor*Brown: 112, 12.5
Mitchell*Marner: 124, 12.1
Tyler*Bozak: 98, 11.22
Leo*Komarov: 84, 10.71
Nikita*Soshnikov : 57, 8.77
Nazem*Kadri: 184, 8.7
Matt*Martin: 62, 8.06
William*Nylander: 140, 7.86
Zach*Hyman: 135, 4.44

And unlike Kadri, who had an absurdly high SH% on the PP, Nylander didn't, although he did lead forwards in # shots on the PP. Here are those numbers:

Nazem*Kadri: 38, 31.58
Leo*Komarov: 18, 22.22
Tyler*Bozak: 41, 17.07
Auston*Matthews: 44, 15.91
Connor*Brown: 13, 15.38
William*Nylander: 56, 14.29
James*van Riemsdyk: 51, 11.76
Mitchell*Marner: 36, 11.11

I think there is clear room for growth at ES, both in # shots and shooting % and don't see anything that says he should score less on the PP.

I think he hits 30+. Now, if he moves to center and has to take on more responsibility defensively, then maybe not, but if he's on the wing and is healthy, I think he gets it.

Excellent post. I think Kadri takes a step back as well. Nylander to finish the season was a monster. This is why many fans suddenly flipped from the Matthews > Marner > Nylander hype train at the start of the season to now Nylander > Marner. Many nights Nylander was the best player on the team.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

He just might. If I had to bet I'd say no, but this is another one of those coin flips. I expect to see a bit more play making from Matthews this year so that could help him.

 

[The Thin White Duke]

I'm a little worried about his PP scoring because most of his goals were within a couple feet of the same spot like we see with Ovechkin. His shot is great but I don't know if it's at the level that he won't suffer if teams decide to start playing him more aggressively at the circle.

That being said it'll open up his playmaking options if they decide to do that so his overall PP points shouldn't take a hit.

 

[Narow]

He definatly can, depends if he plays with matthews as i think matthews will get the better chances but could be wrong. He only had 4 goals if i remember correctly with almost 700 minutes of playtime with matthews...or was it closer to 600?