CantLoseWithMatthews
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- Sep 28, 2015
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Including Matthews.
Yeah but it would be fairly dumb to base an evaluation of a player on presuming their career will be derailed by injuries
Including Matthews.
He's in the special tier of players. With Eichel and Laine.
Yeah but it would be fairly dumb to base an evaluation of a player on presuming their career will be derailed by injuries
No easily. Any neutral person watching him knows he got lucky with alot of garbage goals and faced 3rd line competition. He will get low 30s.
No easily. Any neutral person watching him knows he got lucky with alot of garbage goals and faced 3rd line competition. He will get low 30s.
If Eichel is in Matthews' tier after being outscored by 13 points in their respective rookie years then Matthews is also in McDavid's tier when comparing rookie seasons
Honestly matthews is probably between Eichel and mcdavid in terms of talent. We'll see which one he ends up closest to
Calm down, Matthews isn't a generational player like McDavid.
None of those guys except a 24 year old Panarin (5 years older than Matthews) had rookie seasons remotely close to Matthews' relative to the league when they played.
Really surprising how hard that is to grasp...
Matthews' closest rookie comparable is Malkin who was D+3 at the time. The only D+1 rookies better than Matthews in the last 20+ years are Crosby and McDavid.
A natural bump in TOI and normalization towards elite level 5v5 oISH%s screams "increased production" this year, so if you (or anyone else) truly expect/want regression, then you'll probably be in for a bad time. Just fyi.
Who said I expect / want regression?
I answered the question posed about elite young players that struggled to build upon a great rookie year. Matthews struggling to build upon his rookie year certainly wouldn't count as regression, and it would be far from unprecedented.
It would be unprecedented for someone of Matthews' skill because everyone you listed wasn't close to Matthews' level so those were a whole bunch of irrelevant examples.
He will not come close to 40 goals this season. Expect a slump. Will get more assists though.
He will not come close to 40 goals this season. Expect a slump. Will get more assists though.
If we're just talking goals here though, is it really that ridiculous that someone might not repeat a 2nd place finish two years in a row? As I pointed out earlier, only Ovi and Stamkos have had back to back 40 goal seasons at any point in the past 8 years. Whiskey's original comment that he'd have at least a 0.45 GPG (so 37 over 82) and could hit 45+ if everything goes right, but injuries could get in the way was perfectly reasonable, but he was jumped on for some ******** about Gaudreau and Monahan not regressing. Matthews doesn't have to "regress" to score slightly less goals. High 30s is still elite these days and he can improve his point totals. And if you want a better example of an elite player, Ovechkin had a worse year statistically in his 2nd season. Doesn't mean he wasn't still great
I guess it just feels "safer" for people to assume Matthews' won't improve on his performance. As an advocate for advanced stats, I personally can't assume the same thing. There's simply nothing in the various underlying metrics available to indicate Matthews' will score less.
Barring injury or awful "luck" (i.e. shot% dipping below 10%), I would argue we should actually expect 40+ goals next year assuming a bump in TOI and natural growth/improvement from an elite rookie teenager.
I think the biggest challenge, beyond staying healthy, will be adjusting to team's who now have a full season of game tape on him to adjust their defensive schemes.
Also, he shot at 14.3%. Certainly not unrealistically high but he could very easily drop to 13% which would be more than enough for him to struggle to make 40 goals. I personally think we'll see him hit around 70-75 points (as I've said in the past) so I'm actually expecting progression from an overall production perspective, despite some of the challenges elite second year players often encounter.
I guess it just feels "safer" for people to assume Matthews' won't improve on his performance. As an advocate for advanced stats, I personally can't assume the same thing. There's simply nothing in the various underlying metrics available to indicate Matthews' will score less.
Barring injury or awful "luck" (i.e. shot% dipping below 10%), I would argue we should actually expect 40+ goals next year assuming a bump in TOI and natural growth/improvement from an elite rookie teenager.
oh brother this makes me cringe horribly every time I read it
Let's say Matthews changes his game a bit over the summer because he improved his explosiveness and his slapshot? Is all the game tape useless and then Matthews has another year to run rampant on the league because they have to wait until next offseason to adjust to his game now?