Does Matthews hit 40 goals again this season (2017-2018) ?

[TheDoldrums]

Some of you leafs fans are waaaaay too sensitive. I say its a coin flip for him to score 40 goals and that i expect him to score 70-75 points and folks are saying my posts are "cringe worthy" or that I want or expect regression. Its a remarkable display of over-sensitivity.

The guy who said he cringed was because you were speaking in tired cliches about teams getting more tape on him, not because of your expectations. His production didn't fall off late in the year when everyone already had plenty of video to scout him.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

You don't think teams learn how to defend players better over their career? Obviously teams don't wait for the offseason to learn and deploy those learnings, but individual players (and especially goaltenders) are certainly able to pick up on subtle tendencies in a players game over time. Over the course of the season, the cumulative impact can limit the extent to which a player is able to improve statistically.

Some of you leafs fans are waaaaay too sensitive. I say its a coin flip for him to score 40 goals and that i expect him to score 70-75 points and folks are saying my posts are "cringe worthy" or that I want or expect regression. Its a remarkable display of over-sensitivity.

Agreed. Don't know what was so offensive in saying it is a coin flip if Matthews scores 40 again this year. It can easily go either way.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

The guy who said he cringed was because you were speaking in tired cliches about teams getting more tape on him, not because of your expectations. His production didn't fall off late in the year when everyone already had plenty of video to scout him.

Are you sure about that?

Before March
55p in 62gp (73 point pace)

After March
14p in 20gp (57 point pace)

 

[Saintb]

I think low forties if healthy. Jets fan here who appreciates what Mathews brings.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Are you sure about that?

Before March
55p in 62gp (73 point pace)

After March
14p in 20gp (57 point pace)

Pre All-star Break

39p in 47gp (68 point pace)

Post All-star Break

30p in 35gp (70 point pace)



Before April

63p in 76gp (68 point pace)

After April

6p in 6gp (82 point pace)

Wow, arbitrary endpoints are so much fun!

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

The guy who said he cringed was because you were speaking in tired cliches about teams getting more tape on him, not because of your expectations. His production didn't fall off late in the year when everyone already had plenty of video to scout him.

This. And not only that, but he's tendencies should have been known by everyone before the year even started due to his preseason, wcoh, and entire hockey playing career. I just can't find the logic to say he could have caught anyone off guard for 82 games plus 6 in the playoffs

 

[TDK67]

Pre All-star Break

39p in 47gp (68 point pace)

Post All-star Break

30p in 35gp (70 point pace)



Before April

63p in 76gp (68 point pace)

After April

6p in 6gp (82 point pace)

Wow, arbitrary endpoints are so much fun!

Lol exactly. Love the random-date-range-to-prove-my-faulty-logic card played by Whiskey

 

[TDK67]

I think the biggest challenge, beyond staying healthy, will be adjusting to team's who now have a full season of game tape on him to adjust their defensive schemes.

Also, he shot at 14.3%. Certainly not unrealistically high but he could very easily drop to 13% which would be more than enough for him to struggle to make 40 goals. I personally think we'll see him hit around 70-75 points (as I've said in the past) so I'm actually expecting progression from an overall production perspective, despite some of the challenges elite second year players often encounter.

His shot% certainly can drop. I don't think his chance generation drops or stagnates with increased ice time though. That simply never happens for talent of his kind. Whatever shot% drops may or may not happen will most likely be offset by the increase in shot generation with imcreased ice time.

 

[UsernameWasTaken]

I'll say yes - I initially thought 'no', then went to look at his goal scoring production from last season and was reminded he hit 40 (my bad - i had it in my head it was in the mid 30s).

So I think he'll do it again.

 

[Dustin]

Pre All-star Break

39p in 47gp (68 point pace)

Post All-star Break

30p in 35gp (70 point pace)



Before April

63p in 76gp (68 point pace)

After April

6p in 6gp (82 point pace)

Wow, arbitrary endpoints are so much fun!

Bahahahaha.

 

[Tofveve]

40 is a huge number in today's game. Matthews was up 4 goals after his first game last year. Not normal. I think he'll hit 36 goals.

 

[X66]

Matthews has always been an elite, tier 1 goal scoring player so it's really hard to bet against him.

He scores a bunch of his goals the same way Crosby does, because they're elite in the hardest places to score goals.

Like how are you suppose to stop him in those areas? He's got elite strength, he's got elite skill, he has an elite shot, he's got elite agility/balance and he's just way smarter than your average player.

 

[Laineux]

Matthews is no fluke. He has all the tools to score even 50.

 

[Maplebeasts]

40 is a huge number in today's game. Matthews was up 4 goals after his first game last year. Not normal. I think he'll hit 36 goals.

If people are seriously going to use the "remove these games and he's not a 40 goal scorer" card, we'll just reply with "remove his 13 game goalless drought and he's a 45 goal scorer".

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

If people are seriously going to use the "remove these games and he's not a 40 goal scorer" card, we'll just reply with "remove his 13 game goalless drought and he's a 45 goal scorer".

don't forget his 7 game drought. Matthews put up 36 goals in 61 games if you want to take out the anomalies. Really he's a 48 goal scorer

 

[glucker]

don't forget his 7 game drought. Matthews put up 36 goals in 61 games if you want to take out the anomalies. Really he's a 48 goal scorer

So with a bit more consistency, and growing as a player in the NHL, we can probably expect 60-70 goal seasons in his prime.

Excellent.

 

[Yasuo]

If people are seriously going to use the "remove these games and he's not a 40 goal scorer" card, we'll just reply with "remove his 13 game goalless drought and he's a 45 goal scorer".

lol use some logic and remove 1 games aswell. So 36 goals and 29 assist for 65 points in 80 games

 

[Pi]

I think a healthy Matthews should hit 40+ goals. Increase in ice time should reflect tougher competition but also an increase in PP/ES time. Matthews had just 8 goals on the PP. He could easily double that this year if he's the primary shooter on the PP from the left side. His "heat map" shows he gets a ridiculous amount of HDSC's.

If Matthews can score 40, he'll become the second player since Ovechkin to hit back to back 40+ (Ovechkin actually got 50 back to back).

Based on shot volume, the area which he shoots from, possession, increase in PP/ES time and his OISH% increasing to above average, he should be the odds on favourite to win the Rocket this year. Obviously this doesn't account for someone like Crosby going on a ridiculous run with a SH% above 25%.

 

[Tofveve]

If people are seriously going to use the "remove these games and he's not a 40 goal scorer" card, we'll just reply with "remove his 13 game goalless drought and he's a 45 goal scorer".

Maybe that works.

I hope he proves me wrong.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

If PP chances keep getting handed out like candy then yes he probably will

 

[Hounsy]

He has always been a scorer before setup guy and see no reason the Leafs would want to change that, so think he has a good chance to repeat last years goal numbers.

 

[ricky0034]

voted no but I think it's pretty close to 50/50

 

[AvroArrow]

Pre All-star Break

39p in 47gp (68 point pace)

Post All-star Break

30p in 35gp (70 point pace)



Before April

63p in 76gp (68 point pace)

After April

6p in 6gp (82 point pace)

Wow, arbitrary endpoints are so much fun!

lmao there's certain posters i just dont even reply to anymore

 

[authentic]

40 is a huge number in today's game. Matthews was up 4 goals after his first game last year. Not normal. I think he'll hit 36 goals.

And also had a 10 game stretch where he missed or hit the post on about 15 or so open nets.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Considering that last season Matthews had that 13 game streak without a goal and I believe a 7 game streak without one and still got 40 goals, I think with a little more luck this year he gets at least more than 40 goals.