Does Matthews hit 40 goals again this season (2017-2018) ?

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Including Matthews.

Yeah but it would be fairly dumb to base an evaluation of a player on presuming their career will be derailed by injuries

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

He's in the special tier of players. With Eichel and Laine.

If Eichel is in Matthews' tier after being outscored by 13 points in their respective rookie years then Matthews is also in McDavid's tier when comparing rookie seasons

Honestly matthews is probably between Eichel and mcdavid in terms of talent. We'll see which one he ends up closest to

 

[I am not exposed]

Yeah but it would be fairly dumb to base an evaluation of a player on presuming their career will be derailed by injuries

But he said the following:

"To be fair, none of those players on the same level as Matthews, and all can be explained rather easily as to how their situation was different."

So the situation wouldn't be different if he gets injured. Because that can happen to anyone!

 

[Brock Radunske]

I see no reason to doubt him doing it again considering he's batting .1000 for 40 goal seasons in his career and he did it in a sustainable way.

Innocent until proven guilty.

 

[flamesforcup]

No easily. Any neutral person watching him knows he got lucky with alot of garbage goals and faced 3rd line competition. He will get low 30s.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

No easily. Any neutral person watching him knows he got lucky with alot of garbage goals and faced 3rd line competition. He will get low 30s.

Stats show his expected amount of goals align with what he actually did. Do stats have a leaf bias?

 

[Never]

No, but I think he gets more assists and more points.

 

[Nizdizzle]

No easily. Any neutral person watching him knows he got lucky with alot of garbage goals and faced 3rd line competition. He will get low 30s.

Yeah, I don't think you have a good grasp on neutral.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

If Eichel is in Matthews' tier after being outscored by 13 points in their respective rookie years then Matthews is also in McDavid's tier when comparing rookie seasons

Honestly matthews is probably between Eichel and mcdavid in terms of talent. We'll see which one he ends up closest to

Calm down, Matthews isn't a generational player like McDavid.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Calm down, Matthews isn't a generational player like McDavid.

You may have quoted the wrong post

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

None of those guys except a 24 year old Panarin (5 years older than Matthews) had rookie seasons remotely close to Matthews' relative to the league when they played.

Really surprising how hard that is to grasp...

Matthews' closest rookie comparable is Malkin who was D+3 at the time. The only D+1 rookies better than Matthews in the last 20+ years are Crosby and McDavid.

A natural bump in TOI and normalization towards elite level 5v5 oISH%s screams "increased production" this year, so if you (or anyone else) truly expect/want regression, then you'll probably be in for a bad time. Just fyi.

Who said I expect / want regression?

I answered the question posed about elite young players that struggled to build upon a great rookie year. Matthews struggling to build upon his rookie year certainly wouldn't count as regression, and it would be far from unprecedented.

 

[TDK67]

Who said I expect / want regression?

I answered the question posed about elite young players that struggled to build upon a great rookie year. Matthews struggling to build upon his rookie year certainly wouldn't count as regression, and it would be far from unprecedented.

It would be unprecedented for someone of Matthews' skill because everyone you listed wasn't close to Matthews' level so those were a whole bunch of irrelevant examples.

 

[Puckstuff]

sure but I would obviously rather him score 30 goals and 45 assists for 75 points rather then 40-30 and 70 points.

 

[Regal]

It would be unprecedented for someone of Matthews' skill because everyone you listed wasn't close to Matthews' level so those were a whole bunch of irrelevant examples.

If we're just talking goals here though, is it really that ridiculous that someone might not repeat a 2nd place finish two years in a row? As I pointed out earlier, only Ovi and Stamkos have had back to back 40 goal seasons at any point in the past 8 years. Whiskey's original comment that he'd have at least a 0.45 GPG (so 37 over 82) and could hit 45+ if everything goes right, but injuries could get in the way was perfectly reasonable, but he was jumped on for some ******** about Gaudreau and Monahan not regressing. Matthews doesn't have to "regress" to score slightly less goals. High 30s is still elite these days and he can improve his point totals. And if you want a better example of an elite player, Ovechkin had a worse year statistically in his 2nd season. Doesn't mean he wasn't still great

 

[Kuhta]

He will not come close to 40 goals this season. Expect a slump. Will get more assists though.

 

[Cleatus]

I predict 35 goals, and around 75 points.

 

[Brock Radunske]

He will not come close to 40 goals this season. Expect a slump. Will get more assists though.

Laine too, I assume?

 

[BrannigansLaw]

He will not come close to 40 goals this season. Expect a slump. Will get more assists though.

You mean like the 13 game slump he had last season where he still scored 40 goals?

 

[TDK67]

If we're just talking goals here though, is it really that ridiculous that someone might not repeat a 2nd place finish two years in a row? As I pointed out earlier, only Ovi and Stamkos have had back to back 40 goal seasons at any point in the past 8 years. Whiskey's original comment that he'd have at least a 0.45 GPG (so 37 over 82) and could hit 45+ if everything goes right, but injuries could get in the way was perfectly reasonable, but he was jumped on for some ******** about Gaudreau and Monahan not regressing. Matthews doesn't have to "regress" to score slightly less goals. High 30s is still elite these days and he can improve his point totals. And if you want a better example of an elite player, Ovechkin had a worse year statistically in his 2nd season. Doesn't mean he wasn't still great

I guess it just feels "safer" for people to assume Matthews' won't improve on his performance. As an advocate for advanced stats, I personally can't assume the same thing. There's simply nothing in the various underlying metrics available to indicate Matthews' will score less.

Barring injury or awful "luck" (i.e. shot% dipping below 10%), I would argue we should actually expect 40+ goals next year assuming a bump in TOI and natural growth/improvement from an elite rookie teenager.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I guess it just feels "safer" for people to assume Matthews' won't improve on his performance. As an advocate for advanced stats, I personally can't assume the same thing. There's simply nothing in the various underlying metrics available to indicate Matthews' will score less.

Barring injury or awful "luck" (i.e. shot% dipping below 10%), I would argue we should actually expect 40+ goals next year assuming a bump in TOI and natural growth/improvement from an elite rookie teenager.

I think the biggest challenge, beyond staying healthy, will be adjusting to team's who now have a full season of game tape on him to adjust their defensive schemes.

Also, he shot at 14.3%. Certainly not unrealistically high but he could very easily drop to 13% which would be more than enough for him to struggle to make 40 goals. I personally think we'll see him hit around 70-75 points (as I've said in the past) so I'm actually expecting progression from an overall production perspective, despite some of the challenges elite second year players often encounter.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I think the biggest challenge, beyond staying healthy, will be adjusting to team's who now have a full season of game tape on him to adjust their defensive schemes.

Also, he shot at 14.3%. Certainly not unrealistically high but he could very easily drop to 13% which would be more than enough for him to struggle to make 40 goals. I personally think we'll see him hit around 70-75 points (as I've said in the past) so I'm actually expecting progression from an overall production perspective, despite some of the challenges elite second year players often encounter.

oh brother this makes me cringe horribly every time I read it

Let's say Matthews changes his game a bit over the summer because he improved his explosiveness and his slapshot? Is all the game tape useless and then Matthews has another year to run rampant on the league because they have to wait until next offseason to adjust to his game now?

 

[TheLeastOfTheBunch]

"Sophomore slumps" usually occur with a regression toward the mean or a below league average OISH%, and, in a way, I think you can extend that to Matthews' point totals in his rookie season as well. By all means he should've had more points last season, I'd be surprised if he underpeforms again considering he will have a jump in ice time, his rookie linemates will have more experience under their belts, and his OISH% should inch closer to ~9%.
He led the league in expected goals last season, I'm not sure if Babcock will want to limit his best offensive player's efficacy in the o-zone. It's the reason why the Leafs were so successful last season, and came close to upsetting the Caps in the playoffs.

 

[Regal]

I guess it just feels "safer" for people to assume Matthews' won't improve on his performance. As an advocate for advanced stats, I personally can't assume the same thing. There's simply nothing in the various underlying metrics available to indicate Matthews' will score less.

Barring injury or awful "luck" (i.e. shot% dipping below 10%), I would argue we should actually expect 40+ goals next year assuming a bump in TOI and natural growth/improvement from an elite rookie teenager.

I think that's a big part of it. With players without a long track record it feels more reasonable to err on the side of caution with predictions. I think the underlying numbers make a solid case and I expect him to improve his point totals for sure. I think goals tend to be more variable though to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if he fell just short. Especially if he misses even 5-6 games. Wouldnt be surprised if he hit 45+ though either.

 

[authentic]

I think he will top 40 if he plays every game or close to it.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

oh brother this makes me cringe horribly every time I read it

Let's say Matthews changes his game a bit over the summer because he improved his explosiveness and his slapshot? Is all the game tape useless and then Matthews has another year to run rampant on the league because they have to wait until next offseason to adjust to his game now?

You don't think teams learn how to defend players better over their career? Obviously teams don't wait for the offseason to learn and deploy those learnings, but individual players (and especially goaltenders) are certainly able to pick up on subtle tendencies in a players game over time. Over the course of the season, the cumulative impact can limit the extent to which a player is able to improve statistically.

Some of you leafs fans are waaaaay too sensitive. I say its a coin flip for him to score 40 goals and that i expect him to score 70-75 points and folks are saying my posts are "cringe worthy" or that I want or expect regression. Its a remarkable display of over-sensitivity.