Devils 2017-18 team discussion (player news and notes) VI - The Home Stretch

[billingtons ghost]

+/- is useless except over lots of seasons with lots of context. It's almost completely worthless in today's NHL, but it's the best thing we have for pre-2008 stuff. Still, context is critical - the Devils were probably a + team with Stevens off the ice, just not as much of one.

Yeah, no. A puck being in the net is a puck in the net. It doesn't change 'with today's NHL' however much you'd like the advanced stats to somehow be valued more.

 

[billingtons ghost]

You will never convince people that win% for goalies isn't a team stat (even though it is)

I bet these same people think W-L for pitchers in baseball is important, too.

this whole "Schneider has never been good in NJ" narrative crafted by a few on here is the worst thing this board has seen in awhile. Utter nonsense.

It is. That's why the Cy Young regularly goes to the pitcher with one of if not the highest win count.

I think Schneider's been very good for us. I think his current troubles are because of the D in front of him.

I don't think he's nearly as complete a goalie as some make him out here to be, and I think it is equally silly to base his performance solely on SV% as it is on Ws.

Taken as a whole, he hasn't been great for us. He's been good, he's a victim when our team sucks, but he has trouble winning games - and that simply isn't 'LUCK'.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

my favorite part of this "argument" was when Grant Fuhr was brought up a couple weeks ago

 

[Triumph]

Yeah, no. A puck being in the net is a puck in the net. It doesn't change 'with today's NHL' however much you'd like the advanced stats to somehow be valued more.

+/- doesn't measure pucks in the net. If it did, players would get +'s for being on the ice for a power play goal and get a -for being on the ice when a power play goal is scored against. Try again.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

I'm hardly team Cory, but Jesus, Jim.

Also, timely saves may not be quantifiable, but they are definitely a thing. Giving up terrible goals at terrible times completely takes the air out of a team and we've seen it multiple times this season from Cory.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Allowing shots off rebounds is going to decrease your save percentage. I don’t think there has ever been a goalie who stops a higher percentage of rebound shots than first shots.

Simple question:
Do you see any difference in rebound control when Cory plays versus when Kinkaid, Lack, or Appleby have played?

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

It is. That's why the Cy Young regularly goes to the pitcher with one of if not the highest win count.

I think Schneider's been very good for us. I think his current troubles are because of the D in front of him.

I don't think he's nearly as complete a goalie as some make him out here to be, and I think it is equally silly to base his performance solely on SV% as it is on Ws.

Taken as a whole, he hasn't been great for us. He's been good, he's a victim when our team sucks, but he has trouble winning games - and that simply isn't 'LUCK'.

if you have a 1.00 ERA, you are likely to get a lot of wins

if you have a lot of wins, it doesn't necessarily mean your ERA is low

hell, Randy Johnson won near 20 games one of his years with the Yankees and had a 5.00 ERA. I bet you think he had a good season huh

 

[DerekDevils30]

I thought there were a lot of wasted seasons after the lockout. I remember thinking since 2004 we needed a 2nd center and another Dman.

I think 08-09 was the biggest waste. That team rolled 4 lines every game and was able to wear down opponents nightly. Not sure what happened after Game 1 against Carolina where they dominated. I thought they played good enough to win Game 2 but Ward stole it

 

[billingtons ghost]

+/- doesn't measure pucks in the net. If it did, players would get +'s for being on the ice for a power play goal and get a -for being on the ice when a power play goal is scored against. Try again.

Yes, it is at 5-v-5. Is that your hangup? That specialty teams pucks in the net don't count as much and that PP specialist don't get their due and PK specialists should be punished?

Weird argument.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Lets use JIM LOGIC

Brodeur won 54.5% of his games
Osgood won 54% of his games

Guess Osgood was just as good as Marty

 

[JimEIV]

Ah but see now you admit other factors go into goalie wins when it's Clemmensen's numbers. Hedberg won at the same clip as Marty his three years as a Devil too, doesn't mean he was as good a goalie though.

I didn't deny that there are other factors... I think Cory loses a lot more than he should and theres a pretty large comparable to measure against.

So last night was the 400th game with Cory as a member of team. He's started 266 of those games, others started 134. That's a pretty big sample over a long period of time. Cory has had 2/3rd of the starts and his backups obviously the other 1/3.

Cory is winning a hair under 40% and his backups a hair under 50% during the same time frame.

That seems significant to me...Cory's win percentage only gets you to 33 wins games over 82. His backups get you to 39.
Again that seems significant. Cory wins less than his replacement. And if it doesn't matter because it's team, why is he the highest paid player and provides nothing tangible above his replacement?

 

[Bcap88]

if you have a 1.00 ERA, you are likely to get a lot of wins

if you have a lot of wins, it doesn't necessarily mean your ERA is low

hell, Randy Johnson won near 20 games one of his years with the Yankees and had a 5.00 ERA. I bet you think he had a good season huh

This wins arguement with Jim reminds of the people who would boast that all Vince Young did was win and was 30-17 as a starting qb. Anyone with eyeballs would tell you that Young sucked lol

 

[billingtons ghost]

if you have a 1.00 ERA, you are likely to get a lot of wins

if you have a lot of wins, it doesn't necessarily mean your ERA is low

hell, Randy Johnson won near 20 games one of his years with the Yankees and had a 5.00 ERA. I bet you think he had a good season huh

Those are called correllations. Not cause and effect.

And yes - Randy Johnson did have a good season. It's called pitching with a lead. If your team has scored 5 runs, it's ok to give up 4 so you go after the other team's lineup and throw strikes and win the game.

Jack Morris knew how to do it as well and was the most dominant pitcher for several years despite NOW not getting the recognition because of his stats. He could pitch 10 innings of no-hit ball when he needed to (and did, in the playoffs, ask Smoltz) but he could also give up 7 HRs if his team was up by 9.

Listen, Kevin McReynolds hit lots of HRs for the Mets and stacked up lots of RBIs when they were down 13-2 and never was a very good player although his stats showed that he was.

 

[NjDevsRR]

Chris Osgood, GOAT

 

[billingtons ghost]

Allowing shots off rebounds is going to decrease your save percentage. I don’t think there has ever been a goalie who stops a higher percentage of rebound shots than first shots.

There's no data to support your supposition because the quality of shots vary so widely. He could give up a rebound that is pounded back into his pad 5 times... or the rebound could be sent out to the point and they get two long range but innocuous shots on net because of it. There's absolutely no direct evidence that says the next shots might be easy or tough.

 

[JimEIV]

And I am not just saying this to create controversy... I just don't think Cory is guy you win with.

There have been tons of good players in all sports that just can't seem to close, there is always that one little mishap or bad fortune...Cory is one of them.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

The best defenseman in the NHL is Josh Manson. The two worst dmen are Leddy and OEL. Also Brian Gibbons is better than Taylor Hall. This is your brain on +/-

 

[R8Devs]

I'm pretty sure Zacha has a concussion. If I'm remembering the play that injured him correctly then his head smacked in the boards pretty good. But obviously we have to wait for some official word of some kind.

If he had a concussion they would probably say it. They did for Johansson both times. And Zacha was already skating before the Devils even left NJ and I don't think they'd be so quick to do that if he had a concussion. They have fourteen forwards with them on this trip -- they didn't have to rush him when they have 9 games in 15 days when they come back to the Eastern timezone.

 

[OmNomNom]

And I am not just saying this to create controversy... I just don't think Cory is guy you win with.

There have been tons of good players in all sports that just can't seem to close, there is always that one little mishap or bad fortune...Cory is one of them.

so who do you think we should be going after?

 

[Bcap88]

And I am not just saying this to create controversy... I just don't think Cory is guy you win with.

There have been tons of good players in all sports that just can't seem to close, there is always that one little mishap or bad fortune...Cory is one of them.

Based off of what? the teams we have iced since he has been here have been pure garbage. At least save that statement for when he actually plays in a playoff game

 

[Triumph]

Yes, it is at 5-v-5. Is that your hangup? That specialty teams pucks in the net don't count as much and that PP specialist don't get their due and PK specialists should be punished?

Weird argument.

What? No it isn't. +/- counts 5 on 5 goals. It also counts 4 on 4 goals and 3 on 3 goals. This is a problem, though not much of one. It counts empty net goals. This is a large problem. It counts short-handed goals for and against for some reason. This is another large problem. What you end up with is players who play 5 on 5, PK, and when the opposition's net is empty (aka 'defensive defensemen') getting rewarded inordinately because they play in situations where it's hard not to be a +, whereas players who play on the PP but not the PK, and who play when their own net is empty but not when their opponent's is, get punished.

It's remarkable how much of an effect this can have. Bryce Salvador posted the highest +/- of his career in 2011-12 when he was +18. But at 5 on 5 with the goalie in the net, he was -1. He was +19 in all those other situations I talked about. Last season, Damon Severson was -14 at 5 on 5, but he was -17 in all other situations. Now sure, I think Salvador was a good penalty killer and Severson a somewhat lousy power play guy, but I don't think that really accounts for the discrepancy here.

It's a garbage stat if it needs that much interpretation. I'll use +/- when I have to, while having to mention all these caveats. But it's mostly trash, especially over one season.

 

[Triumph]

Those are called correllations. Not cause and effect.

And yes - Randy Johnson did have a good season. It's called pitching with a lead. If your team has scored 5 runs, it's ok to give up 4 so you go after the other team's lineup and throw strikes and win the game.

Jack Morris knew how to do it as well and was the most dominant pitcher for several years despite NOW not getting the recognition because of his stats. He could pitch 10 innings of no-hit ball when he needed to (and did, in the playoffs, ask Smoltz) but he could also give up 7 HRs if his team was up by 9.

Listen, Kevin McReynolds hit lots of HRs for the Mets and stacked up lots of RBIs when they were down 13-2 and never was a very good player although his stats showed that he was.

This has all been parsed and has found to have been utter garbage. Morris gave up a lot of runs because he wasn't that great of a pitcher, not because he pitched to the score. He had some great big games, but he was not a great pitcher. Enjoy the myth.

 

[JimEIV]

so who do you think we should be going after?

It obviously doesn't matter it's the team right?

Stat guys hate the term clutch cause they can't measure it, conversely the same is true for choke...but anyone who has competed in something as simple as backyard horseshoes knows both exist. That's really what this conversation is about.

 

[OmNomNom]

It obviously doesn't matter it's the team right?

Stat guys hate the term clutch cause they can't measure it, conversely the same true for choke...but anyone who has competed in something as simple as backyard horseshoes knows both exist. That's really what this conversation is about.

well I'M asking you, who do you find is a "clutch" goalie that we could scoop up?

when i ask, i don't ask rhetorically or with any snide underlayer

 

[JimEIV]

well I'M asking you, who do you find is a "clutch" goalie that we could scoop up?

We don't need to find one that's clutch we need to find one that doesn't choke like the one we have.