Devils 2017-18 team discussion (player news and notes) VI - The Home Stretch

[JimEIV]

That works if someone is claiming Kink is better. Which maybe some people are.

But still, Kink is a straight up NHL backup. Cory is supposed to be elite. The fact that they have comparable stretches of bad play is not much of an argument for Cory.

Exactly! And Keith's stats aren't being quoted to say he's better...they are being quoted to point out Cory has underperformed.

 

[devilsblood]

Nobody is denying that Cory has been bad the last 10 games. But don't you think the 28 games before where he was good might indicate that this is just a slump (a poorly timed slump no doubt) and not necessarily what he really is? I'm also not saying we should give Cory back the starters role here. Kinkaid has earned the starts he's gotten lately, and unless he completely regresses should get the majority of the starts.

I just get tired of the use of selective sample sizes around here. Remember when Vatanen sucked when he had 1 point in his first 10 games? Or how Zajac was finished after 20 games this year? Or how the Grabner trade was a disaster? Christ, not that long ago half this board wanted Kinkaid jettisoned to the moon.

Players have hot and cold streaks. Unfortunately for goalies there's nowhere to hide when they go cold. I think, given the season as a whole, that Kinkaid is hot and Cory is cold right now. More than likely Kinkaid is going to regress and Cory will play better, whether it be this season yet or next season.

Of course this 10 game stretch is a slump, but over the last 2 seasons he's been pretty meh, and now he's pooping the crib as we try to get into the playoffs for the first time in 6 years. So there is a bigger criticism here beyond this 10 game stretch.

 

[JimEIV]

Ok...let's put out the records so there is no "selective memory*
Cory
Octoberer 5-1 909 sv%
November 4-4-3 924%
December. 8-2-2 923
January 0-4-1 .870. *Injured
No games in February
March 0-3 .888

Keith.
October 3-1 .910 sv%
November 2-0-1 .903
December 0-2 .848
January 3-1-1 .908
February 7-4 .909
March 4-2. 930 sv%

 

[devilsblood]

Even if it's only temporary, the fact that Cory has lost his grip on the starting role is not good.

Really hope he plays lights out tomorrow, gets the W, and then gets hot to close out this regular season.

 

[MadDevil]

Of course this 10 game stretch is a slump, but over the last 2 seasons he's been pretty meh, and now he's pooping the crib as we try to get into the playoffs for the first time in 6 years. So there is a bigger criticism here beyond this 10 game stretch.

If Cory was completely underwhelming all season I'd be more worried. Maybe the 28 games he had where he was good are the anomaly and he's really just this player from now on. I've just seen goalies written off after having a bad year or two before and then regain some of their old form. I think the days of Cory being a consistent .920+ guy every year are probably done. But I don't think the Cory from the last 10 games is the real Cory either. I just hope he plays well and ends this losing streak. Otherwise there's really nobody to turn to if Kinkaid turns back into a pumpkin.

 

[Bologna 1]

Feel like they are gonna need Cory to be the guy if the devils are gonna have a chance at getting in. Mainly saying that he is gonna have to get the net back.

 

[HenriquesJawLine]

I'm going to guess Miles is probably done for the season if they are keeping it this quiet. Probably seeking multiple opinions. Or maybe it's just because we don't have anybody that covers the team that we haven't heard anything...

How do people still not know there's never any news on off days by now

 

[Emperoreddy]

If Cory was completely underwhelming all season I'd be more worried. Maybe the 28 games he had where he was good are the anomaly and he's really just this player from now on. I've just seen goalies written off after having a bad year or two before and then regain some of their old form. I think the days of Cory being a consistent .920+ guy every year are probably done. But I don't think the Cory from the last 10 games is the real Cory either. I just hope he plays well and ends this losing streak. Otherwise there's really nobody to turn to if Kinkaid turns back into a pumpkin.

Selective memory

 

[MadDevil]

Feel like they are gonna need Cory to be the guy if the devils are gonna have a chance at getting in. Mainly saying that he is gonna have to get the net back.

Agreed. I just don't trust Kinkaid to stay this hot the rest of the year, and if/when he does regress, Cory needs to be there. Who knows, maybe Cory is that goalie that gets hot at just the right moment. I would kill to see both him and Hall just go off in the playoffs.

 

[Cult of Hynes]

Yes cause goalies control the outcome single handedly every game. Holtby has worse numbers than cory and is sitting on 30 wins because guess what? shockingly the caps are a better team than us.

10 games in a row he has let 3 or more goals in, lots of them shit soft goals that have cost us wins, quite a lot of them being one goal games.

he has flat out sucked in his past 10 starts, and that is mostly on him, not the defense.

nothing he does shows he is an above average - elite goalie.

his lateral movement sucks, he gives up gigantic rebounds making the defense look worse than it is because he isn't athletic enough to move fast enough for the second chance off his huge rebound.

 

[MadDevil]

How about the offense and their whopping 8 goals scored in his last 5 starts?

 

[billingtons ghost]

This has all been parsed and has found to have been utter garbage. Morris gave up a lot of runs because he wasn't that great of a pitcher, not because he pitched to the score. He had some great big games, but he was not a great pitcher. Enjoy the myth.

I watched him play. He was a great pitcher. The fact that you make declarations without probably ever having seen him pitch speaks volumes for the validity of your opinion. Which is to say - your opinion is fallacy.

 

[AveryQuietMan]

10 games in a row he has let 3 or more goals in, lots of them **** soft goals that have cost us wins, quite a lot of them being one goal games.

he has flat out sucked in his past 10 starts, and that is mostly on him, not the defense.

nothing he does shows he is an above average - elite goalie.

his lateral movement sucks, he gives up gigantic rebounds making the defense look worse than it is because he isn't athletic enough to move fast enough for the second chance off his huge rebound.

still better than kinks

 

[billingtons ghost]

What? No it isn't. +/- counts 5 on 5 goals. It also counts 4 on 4 goals and 3 on 3 goals. This is a problem, though not much of one. It counts empty net goals. This is a large problem. It counts short-handed goals for and against for some reason. This is another large problem. What you end up with is players who play 5 on 5, PK, and when the opposition's net is empty (aka 'defensive defensemen') getting rewarded inordinately because they play in situations where it's hard not to be a +, whereas players who play on the PP but not the PK, and who play when their own net is empty but not when their opponent's is, get punished.

It's remarkable how much of an effect this can have. Bryce Salvador posted the highest +/- of his career in 2011-12 when he was +18. But at 5 on 5 with the goalie in the net, he was -1. He was +19 in all those other situations I talked about. Last season, Damon Severson was -14 at 5 on 5, but he was -17 in all other situations. Now sure, I think Salvador was a good penalty killer and Severson a somewhat lousy power play guy, but I don't think that really accounts for the discrepancy here.

It's a garbage stat if it needs that much interpretation. I'll use +/- when I have to, while having to mention all these caveats. But it's mostly trash, especially over one season.

Bwahahaha. Empty net goals is your problem with this... ok. Way to have a clue. The guys below are terrible defensemen. It's a garbage stat.

1		Larry Robinson	1951	D	1384	208	750	958	793	722	66	3	29	0.150	0.542	0.692
2		Bobby Orr	1948	D	657	270	645	915	953	582	76	16	26	0.411	0.982	1.393
3		Ray Bourque	1960	D	1612	410	1169	1579	1141	527	173	16	60	0.254	0.725	0.980
4		Serge Savard	1946	D	1040	106	333	439	590	462	23	9	14	0.102	0.320	0.422
5		Denis Potvin	1953	D	1060	310	742	1052	1356	456	127	10	44	0.292	0.700	0.992
6		Nicklas Lidström	1970	D	1564	264	878	1142	514	450	132	10	35	0.169	0.561	0.730
7		Brad McCrimmon	1959	D	1222	81	322	403	1416	448	15	8	15	0.066	0.264	0.330
8		Mark Howe	1955	D	929	197	545	742	455	400	58	28	23	0.212	0.587	0.799
9		Scott Stevens	1964	D	1635	196	712	908	2785	395	75	5	34	0.120	0.435	0.555
10		Al MacInnis

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Bologna 1]

Although we have no conformation, do signs point to schneider tomorrow night?

 

[JimEIV]

Of course this 10 game stretch is a slump, but over the last 2 seasons he's been pretty meh, and now he's pooping the crib as we try to get into the playoffs for the first time in 6 years. So there is a bigger criticism here beyond this 10 game stretch.

He poop the bed his first year here when we were trying to make the playoffs.

Going 16 wins in 43 starts.... .372 win percentage

His backup went 19 wins in 39 starts .487 win percentage...could barely get up off the ice and was 41 years old.

Funny thing is those numbers are almost identical to Cory and Keiths today. That's the real "Selective memory" going on here.

And the NumberBaters had the audacity to claim if Cory got more starts we would've made the playoffs.

 

[Triumph]

Bwahahaha. Empty net goals is your problem with this... ok. Way to have a clue. The guys below are terrible defensemen. It's a garbage stat.

1		Larry Robinson	1951	D	1384	208	750	958	793	722	66	3	29	0.150	0.542	0.692
2		Bobby Orr	1948	D	657	270	645	915	953	582	76	16	26	0.411	0.982	1.393
3		Ray Bourque	1960	D	1612	410	1169	1579	1141	527	173	16	60	0.254	0.725	0.980
4		Serge Savard	1946	D	1040	106	333	439	590	462	23	9	14	0.102	0.320	0.422
5		Denis Potvin	1953	D	1060	310	742	1052	1356	456	127	10	44	0.292	0.700	0.992
6		Nicklas Lidström	1970	D	1564	264	878	1142	514	450	132	10	35	0.169	0.561	0.730
7		Brad McCrimmon	1959	D	1222	81	322	403	1416	448	15	8	15	0.066	0.264	0.330
8		Mark Howe	1955	D	929	197	545	742	455	400	58	28	23	0.212	0.587	0.799
9		Scott Stevens	1964	D	1635	196	712	908	2785	395	75	5	34	0.120	0.435	0.555
10		Al MacInnis

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Yes, great, these were all great defensemen. Also the most recent any of them was played was 2013, and that's one guy. Time moves on. Hilarious to cite this list of guys and then to also cite the fact that I didn't 'see Jack Morris pitch' (when, yes, I did, I saw the tail end of his career). How much Bobby Orr did you see? Robinson in his prime, that was a guy you saw a lot, yes? Potvin too, I take it. Oh, but we have +/-, that amazing stat. Meanwhile baseball has way more descriptive stats than hockey could probably dream of and almost all of them point to Morris being a very good, not great, pitcher.

It's a garbage stat. Wow, it tells me that great defensemen on great teams got great results, when I could've inferred that from any number of things. Meanwhile, in today's NHL, when guys don't play 35 minutes a game, it tells me almost nothing. I have to find out what people play in what situations in order to make any use of it, and while I'm doing that, I can consult much better stats.

Like I said, enjoy your myths and narrative spinning.

 

[Bleedred]

The dumbest thing about this argument is that it's based on wins and losses. As if the goalie deserves more credit for winning a game 5-4 than he does if he loses a game 1-0.

It's like saying ''Wow, Kinkaid stepped up when we needed a win against Washington back in January. One of his 19 big wins on the season!''. Remember Kinkaid allowed 3 goals on 19 shots, blew a 2 goal lead and allowed 2 stinkers and we won in spite of him.

So should we then say ''We really needed Kinkaid to step up and match Cam Ward with another save when he lost that game 2-1 a few weeks back''?

Should Kinkaid have stepped up and matched John Gibson last night and not lost us that game?

By the way, I'm not blaming Kinkaid for last night's loss at all. I thought he was unlucky on those goals and had no real chance on any of them, but some people go out of their way to credit a goalie for winning a game where he was little to no factor at all or allowed a bunch of goals, just because he got the win.

 

[Bleedred]

Yes, great, these were all great defensemen. Also the most recent any of them was played was 2013, and that's one guy. Time moves on. Hilarious to cite this list of guys and then to also cite the fact that I didn't 'see Jack Morris pitch' (when, yes, I did, I saw the tail end of his career). How much Bobby Orr did you see? Robinson in his prime, that was a guy you saw a lot, yes? Potvin too, I take it. Oh, but we have +/-, that amazing stat. Meanwhile baseball has way more descriptive stats than hockey could probably dream of and almost all of them point to Morris being a very good, not great, pitcher.

It's a garbage stat. Wow, it tells me that great defensemen on great teams got great results, when I could've inferred that from any number of things. Meanwhile, in today's NHL, when guys don't play 35 minutes a game, it tells me almost nothing. I have to find out what people play in what situations in order to make any use of it, and while I'm doing that, I can consult much better stats.

Like I said, enjoy your myths and narrative spinning.

I've been trying to explain for years now that the plus/minus leaders for defensemen are mostly old guys (long retired) who played on dynasty teams or teams that were damn near close to them.

 

[VaxjoDevil]

Any news on Wood?

 

[Devils731]

Simple question:
Do you see any difference in rebound control when Cory plays versus when Kinkaid, Lack, or Appleby have played?

Not a large difference. There is some difference due to style but none of them strike me as abnormally great or poor in rebounds.

Based on your supposition you believe Schneider somehow gives up rebounds that are easier to save than other goalies do and that he can save more easily than initial shots? So Cory has great rebound control to give up easier to save rebounds but gives up a huge volume of them so he allows more goals but this also doesn’t end up with him getting tons more shots on goal against each game?

 

[JimEIV]

The dumbest thing about this argument is that it's based on wins and losses. As if the goalie deserves more credit for winning a game 5-4 than he does if he loses a game 1-0.

It's like saying ''Wow, Kinkaid stepped up when we needed a win against Washington back in January. One of his 19 big wins on the season!''. Remember Kinkaid allowed 3 goals on 19 shots, blew a 2 goal lead and allowed 2 stinkers and we won in spite of him.

So should we then say ''We really needed Kinkaid to step up and match Cam Ward with another save when he lost that game 2-1 a few weeks back''?

Should Kinkaid have stepped up and matched John Gibson last night and not lost us that game?

By the way, I'm not blaming Kinkaid for last night's loss at all. I thought he was unlucky on those goals and had no real chance on any of them, but some people go out of their way to credit a goalie for winning a game where he was little to no factor at all or allowed a bunch of goals, just because he got the win.

If you have a .918 save% over 266 games shouldn't you have a better win percentage than a guy with a .911 over 85 games on the same team?

If no, what does that stat even mean?

 

[Brooklyndevil]

All I know is our season rest on a handful of games, whether it’s Cory or Keith. What’s clutch? Mike Bossy, Peppe, 99, Marty and Patrick. That’s clutch!

 

[Triumph]

He poop the bed his first year here when we were trying to make the playoffs.

Going 16 wins in 43 starts.... .372 win percentage

His backup went 19 wins in 39 starts .487 win percentage...could barely get up off the ice and was 41 years old.

Funny thing is those numbers are almost identical to Cory and Keiths today. That's the real "Selective memory" going on here.

And the NumberBaters had the audacity to claim if Cory got more starts we would've made the playoffs.

Because the Devils scored 81 goals in the 41 games Cory started, they gave him absolutely no support at all - they played like the 2nd worst offense in the league when he was in net. This season is different; though Kinkaid has probably gotten a little better goal support, it's not really a significant number.

 

[Triumph]

If you have a .918 save% over 266 games shouldn't you have a better win percentage than a guy with a .911 over 85 games on the same team?

If no, what does that stat even mean?

Backup goaltenders tend to play against worse teams. I wonder if you've acknowledged that even a little bit. Or will you read the wrong column again?