Devils 2017-18 team discussion (player news and notes) VI - The Home Stretch

[MadDevil]

Yes, context. Like how we were a terrible team for a lot of those games lol

But our backup won more so Cory must be a loser. Just like that loser Taylor Hall who has never made the playoffs.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I'm pretty sure Zacha has a concussion. If I'm remembering the play that injured him correctly then his head smacked in the boards pretty good. But obviously we have to wait for some official word of some kind.

If he has another concussion I think he’s in serious trouble. He already plays timid and with zero urgency half the time. If that’s the case, I don’t think he’s gonna pan out.

 

[devilsblood]

Yes, context. Like how we were a terrible team for a lot of those games lol

But Jim's point takes how terrible the team was into consideration.

It is odd that our "top 5 goalie" has a lesser win% then his backups over a 5 year span.

 

[Emperoreddy]

Wins are a team stat. They are and always will be a bad judge of a goalie.

Not plus minus levels of useless, but it certainly should never be the crux of a goalie argument.

It isn’t as bad as “timely saves” which is incredibly nebulous.

 

[billingtons ghost]

Wins are a team stat. They are and always will be a bad judge of a goalie.

Not plus minus levels of useless, but it certainly should never be the crux of a goalie argument.

It isn’t as bad as “timely saves” which is incredibly nebulous.

Utter Garbage.

SV% is just as much a team stat. If Kinkaid saw 20 less shots yesterday, would the .700SV% be on him, or would the team still have played poorly to allow those tap-in goals?
GAA is just as much a team stat. Kinkaid gave up 4.00 yesterday. All on him?

The only measure of any player or any team is wins at the end of the day.

And as for +/- "uselessness", all you need to do is look at the top defensemen on the list all-time to judge for yourself on that one.

 

[Bcap88]

lol trading cory now i see

 

[billingtons ghost]

I think Cory has mostly been a victim of this team - in that bad defensive play seems to shake his confidence and he has difficulty recovering his form. Last year was a lost year because of this.

I've always said that he contributes to his own demise - that his SV% is inflated by horrible rebound control (in fact, the way Keith gobbled pucks in those last few big wins makes me think Cory would've lost the same games) - he's always struggled to control the game/freeze the puck, he's always struggled controlling the puck, he's always had the knock of being somewhat mentally fragile and coming up empty when a big save is needed - and for the first year or two, the shootout was his utter nemesis.

'Winning' the game is still on him at the end of the day. I think all of the above contributes to his losing but won't show up on the stats sheet. He's the best goalie we have - and technically he was better than Marty and is better than Keith. He's just not a complete goalie and the team knows it.

 

[Devils731]

I think Cory has mostly been a victim of this team - in that bad defensive play seems to shake his confidence and he has difficulty recovering his form. Last year was a lost year because of this.

I've always said that he contributes to his own demise - that his SV% is inflated by horrible rebound control (in fact, the way Keith gobbled pucks in those last few big wins makes me think Cory would've lost the same games) - he's always struggled to control the game/freeze the puck, he's always struggled controlling the puck, he's always had the knock of being somewhat mentally fragile and coming up empty when a big save is needed - and for the first year or two, the shootout was his utter nemesis.

'Winning' the game is still on him at the end of the day. I think all of the above contributes to his losing but won't show up on the stats sheet. He's the best goalie we have - and technically he was better than Marty and is better than Keith. He's just not a complete goalie and the team knows it.

Allowing shots off rebounds is going to decrease your save percentage. I don’t think there has ever been a goalie who stops a higher percentage of rebound shots than first shots.

 

[JimEIV]

Wins are a team stat. They are and always will be a bad judge of a goalie.

Now explain to me Brodeur's 285 wins in 364 starts AFTER the 05' lockout. Was that the best team in the league? That's 78% of starts were wins... I dont remember White or Mottau nominated for a Norris. You really going to tell me "The team did that".

Now I wouldn't compare anyone to Marty...but the notion that goalie wins are just a team stat... I honestly don't know how any single Devil fan older than 22 or so could possibly believe that.

 

[NJDevs26]

lol trading cory now i see

No matter how much you hate Cory it's just not realistic right now with four years left on his deal. Unless you're taking back another question mark like Jake Allen or Scott Darling (and making that division in-division is problematic if the haters are wrong about Cory), or eating so much of the contract it could cause a cap headache in 2-4 years.

 

[NJDevs26]

Now explain to me Brodeur's 285 wins in 364 starts AFTER the 05' lockout. Was that the best team in the league? That's 78% of starts were wins... I dont remember White or Mottau nominated for a Norris. You really going to tell me "The team did that".

Now I wouldn't compare anyone to Marty...but the notion that goalie wins are just a team stat... I honestly don't know how any single Devil fan older than 22 or so could possibly believe that.

First of all if you're looking at Hockey Reference that's 364 starts since the beginning of 2007-08. He had about another 150 starts the two previous years that aren't counted on the page. But you made sure to count all the wins since 2005-06, so your numbers are WAY off of course in your favor.

The correct numbers are since 2007-08 Marty started 364 times and won 197 games. That's SLIGHTLY different than your doctored numbers. He won 91 out of 151 starts the previous two years so it's a little better overall post-lockout (overall 288/515 - 55.9%) but still.

 

[JimEIV]

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[NJDevs26]

Martin Brodeur Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Martin Brodeur

Try again...you really think the Devils won 78% of the games Marty started though so that explains a lot. Even in the Devils GREAT years he won 40-42 of 70-72 games lol...78% would be winning high 50's in games every year.

 

[Triumph]

Utter Garbage.

SV% is just as much a team stat. If Kinkaid saw 20 less shots yesterday, would the .700SV% be on him, or would the team still have played poorly to allow those tap-in goals?
GAA is just as much a team stat. Kinkaid gave up 4.00 yesterday. All on him?

The only measure of any player or any team is wins at the end of the day.

And as for +/- "uselessness", all you need to do is look at the top defensemen on the list all-time to judge for yourself on that one.

He didn't see 20 less shots because it's not possible for NHL defenses to play in such a way that they only allow very high quality chances. Perhaps in a game that will happen, but over a season, that's simply not something that happens - whether or not all teams face roughly equal shot quality at even strength over the course of a season is something that's up for debate, but it's not debatable that it's pretty close.

+/- is useless except over lots of seasons with lots of context. It's almost completely worthless in today's NHL, but it's the best thing we have for pre-2008 stuff. Still, context is critical - the Devils were probably a + team with Stevens off the ice, just not as much of one.

 

[JimEIV]

First of all if you're looking at Hockey Reference that's 364 starts since the beginning of 2007-08. He had about another 150 starts the two previous years that aren't counted on the page. But you made sure to count all the wins since 2005-06, so your numbers are WAY off of course in your favor.

The correct numbers are since 2007-08 Marty started 364 times and won 197 games. That's SLIGHTLY different than your doctored numbers. He won 90 games out of approximately 150 starts the previous two years so it's a little better overall post-lockout but still.

I couldn't see all the columns on my phone.

 

[JimEIV]

Martin Brodeur Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Martin Brodeur

Try again...you really think the Devils won 78% of the games Marty started though so that explains a lot. Even in the Devils GREAT years he won 40-42 of 70-72 games lol...78% would be winning high 50's in games every year.

285 by 519. It's still 55%. Over 9 years.

 

[NJDevs26]

285 by 519. It's still 55%. Over 9 years.

And that's still very good but the Devils also had a consistently good team then. Scott Clemmensen won 25/40 the year Marty was out. Hedberg won at a better clip (32 wins in 50 starts) his first two seasons as a Devil. 38/69 if you want to throw in his last year too.

 

[JimEIV]

And that's still very good but the Devils also had a consistently good team then. Scott Clemmensen won 25/40 the year Marty was out.

Parise and Zajac also had career years that year.

Edit Zajac had 67 points the following year and 62 that year.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

You will never convince people that win% for goalies isn't a team stat (even though it is)

I bet these same people think W-L for pitchers in baseball is important, too.

this whole "Schneider has never been good in NJ" narrative crafted by a few on here is the worst thing this board has seen in awhile. Utter nonsense.

 

[DerekDevils30]

Parise and Zajac also had career years that year.

Edit Zajac had 67 points the following year and 62 that year.

08-09 was such a wasted season. Brodeur coming off injury fresh and everything was crapped away against Carolina

 

[NjDevsRR]

LOL 78%

 

[NJDevs26]

Parise and Zajac also had career years that year.

Edit Zajac had 67 points the following year and 62 that year.

Ah but see now you admit other factors go into goalie wins when it's Clemmensen's numbers. Hedberg won at the same clip as Marty his three years as a Devil too, doesn't mean he was as good a goalie though.

 

[JimEIV]

08-09 was such a wasted season. Brodeur coming off injury fresh and everything was crapped away against Carolina

I thought there were a lot of wasted seasons after the lockout. I remember thinking since 2004 we needed a 2nd center and another Dman.

 

[billingtons ghost]

He didn't see 20 less shots because it's not possible for NHL defenses to play in such a way that they only allow very high quality chances. .

Might be the silliest statement I've ever heard. I've played in a million games where where the only shots a goalie sees are breakaways and tap ins? January was full of games like that where our shot count wasn't high, but they were all quality shots. Teams can go long stretches giving up nothing but grade A opportunities.

 

[Bcap88]

No matter how much you hate Cory it's just not realistic right now with four years left on his deal. Unless you're taking back another question mark like Jake Allen or Scott Darling (and making that division in-division is problematic if the haters are wrong about Cory), or eating so much of the contract it could cause a cap headache in 2-4 years.

I actually dont hate cory, I rather have him than kinkaid