Connor McDavid vs Jack Eichel - Round V

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

Please, explain how regression works. I'll wait.

Instead of arguing semantics, let me explain what I THINK you were trying to say and then I'll explain why it is inaccurate. After that, I am going to put up my Christmas tree and leave HF for good - I know, I know, I say that ALL the time but this is silly, ENDLESS and a waste of life.

Your belief is that, given Eichel's shot total, he should have more goals/points. This is based on the fact that his scoring percentage is low while his shot total is high. You attribute this to Eichel being snake bit. You believe that once his scoring percentage approaches that of other top end players, Eichel will be a PPG player. Right?

The problem with that thinking is this...

Let's say, for the sake of argument, 10% of all shots go in. A large chunk of that 10% is from the dirty areas and Jack Eichel SELDOM (see never) goes to those areas. From the games (and highlights) I've seen, a large chunk of Eichel's shots come from the low percentage areas - I can't tell you how many times I have seen Eichel rush thru the neutral zone, take one stride inside the blue line and fire the puck into the goalies chest. And it isn't just me. Sabres fans complain that many a rush has ended with Eichel taking a low percentage shot from the parameter.

Perhaps you have watched too much NCAA hockey but, if you wait for those shots to start going in, you will wait a LONG, LONG time.

And that is what has driven so many non Eichel fans nuts. The lack of objectivity and the exaggeration. I remember when someone posted pictures of Eichel lifting weights, a poster wrote, "As soon as Eichel enters the League he'll probably be the strongest player". After that is was more of the same as it snowballed.

First, the claim was absurd. Second, you can be Hulk Hogan but if you're too timid to leave the parameter, it won't matter.

So, WYTD, next time you accuse another posters of "just stat watching", you might want to take a look in the mirror.

I'm done.

 

[alphahelix]

Please, explain how regression works. I'll wait.

I'm pretty sure there is a double meaning with the word regression, one being the statistical/scientific application of the word and the other being the pseudo-metaphorical english/language arts application of the word. So in one way of looking at things, you're both right. But the other poster appears to be ignorant of the scientific meaning of the word - so if that's what you're jamming at then..

Looking up the non-scientific meaning, it literally says "a return to a less-developed state". I think that in this case you could use the word regression to mean either an increase in shots or a decrease in shots depending on its application. It shouldn't be a matter of interpretation, but a matter of comprehending intended usage.

 

[Aceonfire*]

At this rate Eichel might pass McDavid in points by Christmas.

 

[sah braise]

At this rate Eichel might pass McDavid in points by Christmas.

I predict he'll pass McClavicle in the next 3 games

 

[Mattilaus]

Instead of arguing semantics, let me explain what I THINK you were trying to say and then I'll explain why it is inaccurate. After that, I am going to put up my Christmas tree and leave HF for good - I know, I know, I say that ALL the time but this is silly, ENDLESS and a waste of life.

Your belief is that, given Eichel's shot total, he should have more goals/points. This is based on the fact that his scoring percentage is low while his shot total is high. You attribute this to Eichel being snake bit. You believe that once his scoring percentage approaches that of other top end players, Eichel will be a PPG player. Right?

The problem with that thinking is this...

Let's say, for the sake of argument, 10% of all shots go in. A large chunk of that 10% is from the dirty areas and Jack Eichel SELDOM (see never) goes to those areas. From the games (and highlights) I've seen, a large chunk of Eichel's shots come from the low percentage areas - I can't tell you how many times I have seen Eichel rush thru the neutral zone, take one stride inside the blue line and fire the puck into the goalies chest. And it isn't just me. Sabres fans complain that many a rush has ended with Eichel taking a low percentage shot from the parameter.

Perhaps you have watched too much NCAA hockey but, if you wait for those shots to start going in, you will wait a LONG, LONG time.

And that is what has driven so many non Eichel fans nuts. The lack of objectivity and the exaggeration. I remember when someone posted pictures of Eichel lifting weights, a poster wrote, "As soon as Eichel enters the League he'll probably be the strongest player". After that is was more of the same as it snowballed.

First, the claim was absurd. Second, you can be Hulk Hogan but if you're too timid to leave the parameter, it won't matter.

So, WYTD, next time you accuse another posters of "just stat watching", you might want to take a look in the mirror.

I'm done.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/icetrack/?r1Id=878033&r1Year=2015&r1eventType=%27SHOT%27%2C+%27GOAL%27&r1type=2&r1strength=&r2Id=550752&r2Year=2015&r2eventType=%27SHOT%27%2C+%27GOAL%27&r2type=2&r2strength=

I dunno, to me it looks like he is shooting from all over the place. He actually has a 9.38 shooting % which itself is not terrible but his his on-ice shooting % is only 5.07 at 5v5 which IS terrible and indicates his linemates have been not been able to put anything away, thus him not getting many assists.

I am sure you will dispute this again with a "I watched the highlights and my eyes say he is not going to the dirty areas" but I have stats to back my argument, and you do not.

 

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

I'm pretty sure there is a double meaning with the word regression, one being the statistical/scientific application of the word and the other being the pseudo-metaphorical english/language arts application of the word. So in one way of looking at things, you're both right. But the other poster appears to be ignorant of the scientific meaning of the word - so if that's what you're jamming at then..

Looking up the non-scientific meaning, it literally says "a return to a less-developed state". I think that in this case you could use the word regression to mean either an increase in shots or a decrease in shots depending on its application. It shouldn't be a matter of interpretation, but a matter of comprehending intended usage.

I know exactly what it means and the original post was poorly written.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/icetrack/?r1Id=878033&r1Year=2015&r1eventType=%27SHOT%27%2C+%27GOAL%27&r1type=2&r1strength=&r2Id=550752&r2Year=2015&r2eventType=%27SHOT%27%2C+%27GOAL%27&r2type=2&r2strength=

I dunno, to me it looks like he is shooting from all over the place. He actually has a 9.38 shooting % which itself is not terrible but his his on-ice shooting % is only 5.07 at 5v5 which IS terrible and indicates his linemates have been not been able to put anything away, thus him not getting many assists.

I am sure you will dispute this again with a "I watched the highlights and my eyes say he is not going to the dirty areas" but I have stats to back my argument, and you do not.

Even Sabre fans complain about his unwillingness to go to the dirty areas and Eichel looking timid.
As for stats... I have the best stat of all supporting me : 10 points in 19 games.
That speaks volumes.

...his his on-ice shooting % is only 5.07 at 5v5 which IS terrible and indicates his linemates have been not been able to put anything away, thus him not getting many assists.

As I said before...

First, it was Kane's fault that Eichel was underperforming. Then it was Ennis' fault. When is it Eichel's fault for Eichel's lack of production?

Again, I'm done!!!

 

[Rebuilt]

Crosby is also a middle six forward on the stat sheet. Leave predictions to people who have actually watched Eichel.

Eichel is Crosby now?

I cant believe some of you are honestly trying to spin this story where Eichel goes on a rampage to finish with 65 points when everyone knows competition gets harder as the year goes on .

Sure, Crosby has been in the league for 10 years with multiple scoring titles but what exactly is Eichel drawing on ?

 

[Slangston]

I'd like to know who these Sabres fans are that are complaining about Eichel's supposed unwillingness to go to the dirty areas, because as a Sabre fan myself (One who actually lives in the community, watches the games, and ventures into many Sabre related online forums), I'm not seeing or hearing it.

At this point you're just making stuff up to support your narrative. Also, your position leaves very little in the way of facts -- It's mostly subjective posturing, and you've done a good job of presenting your opinion in a assured manner to the effect that it seems to be grounded in objectivity. It's misleading, but you're not fooling any informed posters that watches this team, and Eichel religiously. Honestly, the more you post, the more it becomes apparent that you're not watching the Sabres all that much. Yeah, perhaps you should take a break from posting on this forum.

 

[obey86]

Is Eichel really having issues being kind of soft/not going to the hard areas? That's surprising if true.

 

[Slangston]

Is Eichel really having issues being kind of soft/not going to the hard areas? That's surprising if true.

It's not true, you don't score the goals that has he this season by not going into hard areas. A few posts above there is a chart that places markers on the areas in which he's successfully found the net. That should be telling.

I personally think he can be harder on the puck along the wall, yes, but I'm sure that's something that he will pick up on as he continues to develop. It's something that a lot of younger players struggle with, so it's not too uncommon.

 

[tsujimoto74]

Is Eichel really having issues being kind of soft/not going to the hard areas? That's surprising if true.

No, there's just that one poster who loves disparaging Eichel. He's fine. He's not a grinder, but why would you want him to be?

 

[Mattilaus]

Eichel is Crosby now?

I cant believe some of you are honestly trying to spin this story where Eichel goes on a rampage to finish with 65 points when everyone knows competition gets harder as the year goes on .

Sure, Crosby has been in the league for 10 years with multiple scoring titles but what exactly is Eichel drawing on ?

I apologize. The intent of my post was not to imply that Eichel is Crosby. It was simply to point out that you can't adequately assess a player by simply looking at their point totals. It was in response to a post stating that Eichel's point totals are an accruate represenation of his skill level which I do not believe to be true in the same way I do not believe Crosby's point totals are an accurate representation of his skill level.

As for your post regarding Eichel hitting 65, I do believe Eichel will heat up but I would agree that 65 points is higher than I would predict at this point in time.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Instead of arguing semantics, let me explain what I THINK you were trying to say and then I'll explain why it is inaccurate. After that, I am going to put up my Christmas tree and leave HF for good - I know, I know, I say that ALL the time but this is silly, ENDLESS and a waste of life.

Your belief is that, given Eichel's shot total, he should have more goals/points. This is based on the fact that his scoring percentage is low while his shot total is high. You attribute this to Eichel being snake bit. You believe that once his scoring percentage approaches that of other top end players, Eichel will be a PPG player. Right?

The problem with that thinking is this...

Let's say, for the sake of argument, 10% of all shots go in. A large chunk of that 10% is from the dirty areas and Jack Eichel SELDOM (see never) goes to those areas. From the games (and highlights) I've seen, a large chunk of Eichel's shots come from the low percentage areas - I can't tell you how many times I have seen Eichel rush thru the neutral zone, take one stride inside the blue line and fire the puck into the goalies chest. And it isn't just me. Sabres fans complain that many a rush has ended with Eichel taking a low percentage shot from the parameter.

Perhaps you have watched too much NCAA hockey but, if you wait for those shots to start going in, you will wait a LONG, LONG time.

And that is what has driven so many non Eichel fans nuts. The lack of objectivity and the exaggeration. I remember when someone posted pictures of Eichel lifting weights, a poster wrote, "As soon as Eichel enters the League he'll probably be the strongest player". After that is was more of the same as it snowballed.

First, the claim was absurd. Second, you can be Hulk Hogan but if you're too timid to leave the parameter, it won't matter.

So, WYTD, next time you accuse another posters of "just stat watching", you might want to take a look in the mirror.

I'm done.

For some strange reason, I don't believe you. But it is funny to a) watch you struggle with basic concepts, like on-ice sh% vs individual sh% and b) watch you continue to desperately push your " timid Eichel " agenda without ever presenting any actual facts.

It makes me glad that you lack the discipline to keep your word, and can never commit to actually leaving these boards.

 

[Rebuilt]

I apologize. The intent of my post was not to imply that Eichel is Crosby. It was simply to point out that you can't adequately assess a player by simply looking at their point totals. It was in response to a post stating that Eichel's point totals are an accruate represenation of his skill level which I do not believe to be true in the same way I do not believe Crosby's point totals are an accurate representation of his skill level.

As for your post regarding Eichel hitting 65, I do believe Eichel will heat up but I would agree that 65 points is higher than I would predict at this point in time.

Good post. I think 40-45 points is a reasonable total for him then 65 -70 next year. After that I would expect a PPG for years.

 

[Mattilaus]

Good post. I think 40-45 points is a reasonable total for him then 65 -70 next year. After that I would expect a PPG for years.

I have him at 50ish this year but the rest of your projections I agree with.

 

[Aceonfire*]

I predict he'll pass McClavicle in the next 3 games

Shut out tonight and the next two games are against the Blues and the Preds.

Your prediction is looking a little iffy.

 

[TalkingProuder]

McDavid got zero points tonight for the HF stat boys crew.

 

[McFlyingV]

McDavid got zero points tonight for the HF stat boys crew.

Don't worry McDavid still finishes the year with more points than Eichel, despite missing 2 months of hockey.

 

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

I truly believe Eichel will go down as the most overrated Draft prospect in recent memory.

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

Don't worry McDavid still finishes the year with more points than Eichel, despite missing 2 months of hockey.

Is it only going to be 2 months you think? That would be great if it's only going to be 2 months.

 

[Johnny McBravo]

I can't believe this is actually an ongoing discussion lol.

 

[Captain Holt]

RoughRiderFan...

Bobby Ryan for Eichel straight up? Do you do it? Since Eichel is timid and overrated, no right?

Hoffman? Stone? Turris? again... no right? Cuz Eichel sucks?

 

[DraberlyakMcHallkins*]

I don't think you can make the argument Eichel's on-ice SH% will regress to the point where he goes from 10P in 20, to ~55P in 62GP. That's pretty unheard of production from a rookie, you hope that Crosby rounds out the season like that.

 

[Sebastian Svechnikov]

unrealistic, even for next year.

umm... why? expecting a franchise center to score 60-65 points in his second season isn't unrealstic at all

 

[obey86]

The hype behind Eichel as a generational, once in a lifetime prospect, was/is so great and such a sure thing that even if he was playing poorly you would never get people to actually admit it. He is many people's franchise savior and people often see what they want to see.