Value of: Connor McDavid (thought experiment involving NHL players, not picks or prospects)

[Tripod]

The #1 overall pick is always - and I mean always - horrendously overvalued by other teams. A team with a vast pool of young players can end up gutting championship caliber talent for the sake of hope.

The easiest example of this is Lindros, even though the situations aren't perfectly analogous. You make that trade 10 times out of 10 from the Quebec perspective and you don't think twice.

For arguments sake - if Chicago calls up Edmonton and goes, "Right, we'll give you our next 2 #1s, Teravainen, TVR, Pokka and Saad", Edmonton would be absolutely bat**** crazy to not take it, and Chicago would think they've stolen two more cups.

The one thing people forget is that Forsberg ended up better than expected. Try looking at that trade if Forsberg was a bust. Philly easily wins that trade then. Forsberg exceeding expectations is what sways that deal.

 

[McRpro]

The one thing people forget is that Forsberg ended up better than expected. Try looking at that trade if Forsberg was a bust. Philly easily wins that trade then. Forsberg exceeding expectations is what sways that deal.

Yup. Forsberg was expected to be a solid NHL player. Not the star he became. Ricci was the more revered player in that trade. If that is what Forsberg turned into then Philly would have destroyed the Nords in that deal.

 

[nbwingsfan]

You have to include the situation a team is in when evaluating a trade. There's zero reason for Dallas to trade Seguin for a guy that is considered a step above him. That still doesn't address Dallas's needs. There's very few teams that would be willing to give up what would be required for McDavid.

What do you mean there's 0 reason to trade Seguin for McDavid just because he's better? That doesn't make any sense. I'm not going to trade Nyquist for Benn because even though Benn is a step above him, it still doesn't address a need.

Trading Seguin for McDavid improves Dallas, doesn't matter if it's a need or not. You always trade the lesser player for a better player, especially if they play the same position.

Never said that he wasn't. Just answering the guy who thought junior points was a solid way to tell the future of the players...

I have watched McDavid play countless times, yet have seen none of his NHL games sarcasm: I'll add that here because sarcasm meters seem to be broken around here...) so it's hard to say that he will be clearly a step above. Let's wait for him to play a season in the show, or at least a handful of games. Surely if he reaches his potential, yes. But it's not a given.

Also the point from my perspective was that the extra 5-10 points and marginally better overall play from McDavid, 3-4 years from now is not beneficial to the Stars...

Where are you getting 3-4 years from now? McDavid is likely putting up more points than Seguin or Benn by his second year. He is also likely putting up more than 5-10 points more than them..

 

[glovesave_35]

Where are you getting 3-4 years from now? McDavid is likely putting up more points than Seguin or Benn by his second year. He is also likely putting up more than 5-10 points more than them..

In other words, you expect him to win or be in the running for the Art Ross in his second season, correct?

 

[nbwingsfan]

In other words, you expect him to win or be in the running for the Art Ross in his second season, correct?

Yes I fully expect McDavid to be in the top 5 in scoring during his second season if he lives up to the hype. Anything less would be a disappointment.

 

[McOvechking]

Yes I fully expect McDavid to be in the top 5 in scoring during his second season if he lives up to the hype. Anything less would be a disappointment.

Yep. People need to realize the expectation for McDavid is similar to Crosby. Therefore he should be in Art Ross contention right out of the gates.

 

[glovesave_35]

Yes I fully expect McDavid to be in the top 5 in scoring during his second season if he lives up to the hype. Anything less would be a disappointment.

I would put money on Seguin through at least the next two seasons but I mostly agree with you.

 

[Pepe Silvia]

McDavid will not be traded. Stop making proposals involving him because it's a waste of time.

 

[nbwingsfan]

I would put money on Seguin through at least the next two seasons but I mostly agree with you.

While it's true that Seguin and McDavid will be close the first couple years, chances are the difference won't be big enough to overcome the big savings on the salary cap as well as future higher production from McDavid after the first couple years.

 

[John Eichel da GOAT]

Stastny + Schwartz + Elliot

Would not even be given consideration.

Overpaid 2nd/3rd line center + Good young star + average Goalie for the 2nd coming of Gretzky/Crosby?

 

[5 14 6 1]

For arguments sake - if Chicago calls up Edmonton and goes, "Right, we'll give you our next 2 #1s, Teravainen, TVR, Pokka and Saad", Edmonton would be absolutely bat**** crazy to not take it, and Chicago would think they've stolen two more cups.

Your kidding right? I'd hangup so fast. That's a brutal offer. A bunch of maybes and tweeners + Saad. The firsts would almost guaranteed be #27-#30 because Chicago adding mcdavid is just ridiculous.

 

[5 14 6 1]

McDavid is so overhyped lol. People are going to be really disappointed next year.

Something tells me you have extremely limited viewing of him

 

[JustinCider]

Something tells me you have extremely limited viewing of him

I've only seen highlights, other than World Juniors until this series with the Soo. He's unreal, his speed is insane. If he can bring that same game to the NHL, there is no way he won't be a top 5 player in the world in the matter of 3 to 5 years.

As for trading him, to me it would take a boatload, but as good as he looks, he is still a junior hockey player who is unproven as a PRO. If the right deal came along, such as...

MON - Subban and Price.

or

OTT - Karlsson, Lazar, and Turris.

or

NSH - Weber and Josi/Jones.

or

LA - Doughty, Toffoli, and Jones.

or

FLA - Barkov, Bjukstad, and Ekblad.

or

BUF - Eichel, Reinhart, and Risto.

or

WAS - Backstrom, Wilson, and Carlson.

or

STL - Tarensko, Pietrangelo, and Allan.

or

DAL - Seguin, Benn, and Klingberg.

or

COL - Mackinnon, Barrie, and E. Johnson.

or

ARZ - OEL, Hanifan, Domi, and Duclare.


These are the deals that would make me consider trading Connor, some seem like no brainers, some are still a little iffy. One thing is for sure, not many teams, if any, would be willing to pay the asking price to acquire him.

 

[BoHorvat 53]

Also take projected value into consideration, i.e the fact that McDavid is regarded as a potential franchise centre.

Weber is already a franchise D-Man, and the best one at that.

 

[JustinCider]

Weber is already a franchise D-Man, and the best one at that.

Yes he is, but he's also making top dollar, even though he's still a bargain even at that deal, and he's gonna be 30 when the next season starts. That's 12 years older than McDavid, with his bargain years long gone. I love Weber, he's the best Dman IMO in the world, but it'd still be a very significant + added along with him for me to trade McDavid.

 

[mc3488]

I've only seen highlights, other than World Juniors until this series with the Soo. He's unreal, his speed is insane. If he can bring that same game to the NHL, there is no way he won't be a top 5 player in the world in the matter of 3 to 5 years.

As for trading him, to me it would take a boatload, but as good as he looks, he is still a junior hockey player who is unproven as a PRO. If the right deal came along, such as...

MON - Subban and Price.

or

OTT - Karlsson, Lazar, and Turris.

or

NSH - Weber and Josi/Jones.

or

LA - Doughty, Toffoli, and Jones.

or

FLA - Barkov, Bjukstad, and Ekblad.

or

BUF - Eichel, Reinhart, and Risto.

or

WAS - Backstrom, Wilson, and Carlson.

or

STL - Tarensko, Pietrangelo, and Allan.

or

DAL - Seguin, Benn, and Klingberg.

or

COL - Mackinnon, Barrie, and E. Johnson.

or

ARZ - OEL, Hanifan, Domi, and Duclare.


These are the deals that would make me consider trading Connor, some seem like no brainers, some are still a little iffy. One thing is for sure, not many teams, if any, would be willing to pay the asking price to acquire him.

I just puked.

 

[Dale H]

Not a chance.

Who would trade an 18 year old potential Legend, a Bobby, a Guy, a Wayne, a Mario, or a Sid, for two to three stars (not superstars) all over 25 years of age, and a couple prospects?

Crack must be be cheap in your part of the world.

 

[Jumptheshark]

I like how in some cases the mcjesus value has gone down since the oilers won the lotto

 

[GrandmaSlices51631]

Who would trade an 18 year old potential Legend, a Bobby, a Guy, a Wayne, a Mario, or a Sid, for two to three stars (not superstars) all over 25 years of age, and a couple prospects?

Crack must be be cheap in your part of the world.

Crack is cheap everywhere, that's why it's crack. Point taken though. . . These kind of generational talents are invaluable. They'll be more minute-eating #1 defensemen in the drafts, power forwards, guys with 100+ MPH slapshots and great centers too that can post 50+ assists a season. But if McDavid does live up to the hype, you just don't trade him. I personally think he'll put up 60-65 as a rookie, which theres nothing wrong with!

 

[MCDAVIDISH]

This thread is going down hill haha...

 

[AvroArrow]

Ovechkin
Crosby
Malkin

if were talking 1 for 1

 

[82Ninety42011]

That's no where close.
Try, Hedman, Vasilevskiv, Drouin, and Killorn for McDavid.

Shades of Eric Lindros in this post

How'd that work out for the Flyers? I know Quebec/Colorado didn't mind it one bit.

 

[JMilne*]

Saad , darling , teuvo teravainen

 

[Seachd]

Saad , darling , teuvo teravainen

Of course not.

 

[T0uGh C0oki3]

Couture + Burns + Braun + Nieto + Niemi's rights

or

Couture + Burns + Mueller + Wingels + 16 1st