Speculation: Chevy Job Security

[Hunter368]

I was referring to the Leafs a few years ago when they made the playoffs and thought they were better than they were with Kessel and Phaneuf and JVR. They made some really stupid moves like the Clarkson deal because they were trying to stay a playoff team with a fundamentally flawed roster. They had to tear it down. They've done that aggressively, but I won't be surprised if they spend a few more years out of the playoffs with their rebuild. Maybe they short circuit it with Stamkos, taking advantage of the TO deal.

Yup I'm aware of your point, I'm just saying both the Jets & Leafs plans now are valid and it's a personal opinion which style a person likes better. You like the Jets plan, I like the Leafs plan....time will tell which is better......hopefully both will be successful.

I like Leafs management/coaching........not sure which you like better (Leafs or Jets) but I can likely guess. That being said I do like Chipman.

 

[Whileee]

Yup I'm aware of your point, I'm just saying both the Jets & Leafs plans now are valid and it's a personal opinion which style a person likes better. You like the Jets plan, I like the Leafs plan....time will tell which is better......hopefully both will be successful.

I like Leafs management/coaching........not sure which you like better (Leafs or Jets) but I can likely guess. That being said I do like Chipman.

I like the Leafs leadership a lot. I think their plan is appropriate for the circumstances now. They had very little to work with in terms of leadership. I still wonder whether they have good enough leadership on the team. Might need to bring in some more.

 

[Hunter368]

I like the Leafs leadership a lot. I think their plan is appropriate for the circumstances now. They had very little to work with in terms of leadership. I still wonder whether they have good enough leadership on the team. Might need to bring in some more.

Agreed. I like both contracts they signed this week. Kadri and Reilly deals are very solid deals (especially Reilly).

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Those are all mistakes or blunders, but none of them rise to the level of "major blunder" in terms of affecting the franchise's ultimate success. A major blunder is trading away a future star (e.g. Seguin), or being saddled with a crippling contract (e.g. Clarkson or Carle), or trading away key draft picks for a real dud (I'll give you Setoguchi).

Funny that after 5 years the list of "major" blunders remains relatively short and bland, and includes pretty minor issues like not trading Kane soon enough (but then trading him for a big haul), and not signing a 3rd line winger that no other team would sign.

5 years of the worst starting goalie in the league meets your definition. The others may be matters of opinion as to how 'major' they are but that one is major.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Regardless of whether the team makes the playoffs or not next year Chevy will get a contract extension. Chipman will never let him be on a lame duck season in 17/18. Unlikely that he is replaced shortly after getting an extension IMO.

So I don't agree that the leash will be short.

The extension is probable, not inevitable. Hitchcock needs a deep run this year or he is gone. Sometimes a coach or GM might be left on a do or die contract. If he is extended he will still be under pressure to perform. One PO appearance followed by a dive to near bottom in 7 years is not good enough. The timeline for the decision can be short. Chevy doesn't have to win the cup in year 7 but the progress has to be tangible.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The Islander prospect isn't as deep or as skilled as the Jets. The only teams I'd put in the same grouping as the Jets are Arizona, Sabres and the Leafs.

The Isles gave up a lot of prospect strength to put the finishing touches on their current team. Boychuk and Leddy being the most recent pieces.

 

[Aavco Cup]

The extension is probable, not inevitable. Hitchcock needs a deep run this year or he is gone. Sometimes a coach or GM might be left on a do or die contract. If he is extended he will still be under pressure to perform. One PO appearance followed by a dive to near bottom in 7 years is not good enough. The timeline for the decision can be short. Chevy doesn't have to win the cup in year 7 but the progress has to be tangible.

You can't compare a GM to a coach that way. There is no way Chevy does a lame duck season. Chipman basically said so on the radio.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I just think we see things different Hank. For me there is no use trying to fix a problem that holds you back if you believe you haven't got to the point where you have the players to move to a point where you can really compete. Should we spend resources to hold a middle ground if we don't believe the current group is capable of taking it beyond that? I'd argue the organization is more than capable of distinguishing the usefulness of players but for right or wrong has placed added emphasis on character at this point in their evolution. I just think they are willingly to have "glue' guys around to show the kids how to be true professionals as they are introducing the waves of prospects and then they will respectfully thank them as the next generation takes over. Getting back to the OP, IMO there is a long term vision on how TNSE believes they need to build a team and Chevy is following through on that expectation. In terms of security he is as locked in as a GM can be. IMO of course.

A lot of GMs are as locked in as a GM can be until they are not anymore. At some point the fanbase comes together as a group and demands change. At this point most are prepared to continue waiting for the youth movement to pay off. Taking a step back and sinking to lower than the Thrashers were in their last season hasx started the countdown. It was a reset. Fans will soon start to demand that it pay dividends. All we are talking about here is our varying opinions of how long the pressure building process will take.

There was a lot of fan apathy this year. Watching the young players develop will buy some time. I think it will buy 1 more season. Beyond that and there will be only 2 kinds of fans left, the apathetic ones and the fed up ones. The apathetic ones are the worst. They don't spend. You don't hear them expressing anger. They don't toss jerseys on the ice. They start watching basketball or they take up knitting.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

We've already seen STH's and fans put off to "some" degree this past year. As a STH myself I've never seen so many empty seats throughout the year and never have I had such a hard time selling tickets.....often not only I couldn't sell them (even below list price) I couldn't give away tickets for free for several games. Season tickets are sold in multi years at time, so nothing too worry about at the moment but you can be sure TNSE is moniteering the situation closely. Their in the entertainment business, they need fans to be entertained or the business will fail. They will be sure not to allow this to happen.

There is a lot of time lag involved. The Jets can't wait until fan disenchantment shows. They can't wait until after it becomes difficult to sell season tickets. Fans lost don't turn around and come back on a dime. The team has to get all the way to respectability before they come back. They have to anticipate and stay ahead. If they wait until fan dissatisfaction shows then the dissatisfaction has momentum. It takes years to turn it around.

 

[raideralex99]

5 years of the worst starting goalie in the league meets your definition. The others may be matters of opinion as to how 'major' they are but that one is major.

Also getting new ST coaches would not hurt.
Last year the Ducks were 28th on the PP and fired their ST coach ... they bring in Paul MacLean this year and bang they have the #1 PP in the league.

 

[KingBogo]

A lot of GMs are as locked in as a GM can be until they are not anymore. At some point the fanbase comes together as a group and demands change. At this point most are prepared to continue waiting for the youth movement to pay off. Taking a step back and sinking to lower than the Thrashers were in their last season hasx started the countdown. It was a reset. Fans will soon start to demand that it pay dividends. All we are talking about here is our varying opinions of how long the pressure building process will take.

There was a lot of fan apathy this year. Watching the young players develop will buy some time. I think it will buy 1 more season. Beyond that and there will be only 2 kinds of fans left, the apathetic ones and the fed up ones. The apathetic ones are the worst. They don't spend. You don't hear them expressing anger. They don't toss jerseys on the ice. They start watching basketball or they take up knitting.

I don't see fan apathy. Every game I was at there was just as much passion as there always has been. And I never have a problem distributing any tickets I don't want, of course I use a private network of friends and sell them for my price. I did this year 1 and will do it in year 20. What I've seen is ST groups open up as fans get a better handle on how many games they can comfortably attend. In Chipman's FP article this morning he mentioned the organization could sell every available ticket as a ST if they wanted, but have made a business decision not to. They have now got ST renewal of over 95% for each level of seat as they became available.

I also disagree on how long fans will be patient. We dropped lower than Atlanta, but they did it without a single promising prospect in the system. We have a full stable kicking down the door. The discussions I've had with other ST holders is more along the lines of if they should go even younger next season and move out some more vets as they age. IMO there is an appreciation out there that you can't cheat the building process. Again IMO the evolution of this team is being lead by Chipman's vision and Chevy is as safe as can be as long as he implements the vision.

 

[KingBogo]

Both are fair options to use (Leafs or Jets), personally you like the Jets model and personally I like the Leafs model. Neither is right or wrong, it's personal opinion.

IMO Leafs management is looking pretty damn good, especially Bobcock & Shanny. Both teams started rebuilding at a similar time, let's see which team progresses better. Jets are my main team always, but before the Jets returned the Leafs were my team (can't stand all the other Canadian teams). Hopefully both do well in the long run.

With new management in Toronto the Jets and Leafs are now following the same building plan. The only difference is the Leafs are far more aggressive in tearing down their older core. But is this a philosophy that you need to cut deeper or the practicality of the core players in the organization. Kessel at $8 M Vs. Wheeeler at $5.6 M. Phaneuf at $7 M Vs. Buff at $5.2 M (now $7.6).

IMO this will be a lot more successful for both organizations than the "patch and overpay for today at the expense of the future model" the leafs were managed under for the past few decades.

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

A GM's job is to build a winning team and make the playoffs period.
The timeline shouldn't be 6-7 years that's absolutely ridiculous,however the owner is okay with it, the question is how long before STH get put off ?
The real kicker is this well thought out D&D process is not a sure thing and if the prospects don't pan out then 6-7 years becomes 8-9 years.
Once Chevy inks another contract extension there not a chance he doesn't finish whatever the term is .

Lol, ridiculous, 7 to 8 years to build a winning team? Are you under the delusion that cup contending teams are put together in 3 to 5 year periods?

Instead of having your timelines being the barometer for building actual cup contending teams, try looking at actual cup contending team, and trace back their steps. With almost each and everyone, the building process was 8 to 10 years.

So, whether you agree with this or not, absolutely does not matter, because factually, building winning hockey teams takes a very long time.

As for questioning the D and D process, try accounting for several draft picks that have already produced well at the NHL level. Scheif, Trouba, Ehlers, Lowry, Copp, Armia, Hellebuyck.

With common sense, you can grade a draft pick fully, 4 to 5 years after being drafted. As well, if you can draft 2 players per draft, that amount to regular productive NHL players, you are probably slightly above the league average.

With this common sense, we should realistically only be looking at 4 draft picks playing productive NHL minutes, and that would be very good. Yet today, we have around 8 draft picks that are going to be regular NHL players, along with another 4 or 5 prospects that are shaping into NHL players. That is an excellent output for draft and developing.

So maybe instead of judging the success of this team, based off your timelines, do it based of off league timelines, as one is completely inaccurate and unreasonable, the other 100% factual.

 

[Hunter368]

There is a lot of time lag involved. The Jets can't wait until fan disenchantment shows. They can't wait until after it becomes difficult to sell season tickets. Fans lost don't turn around and come back on a dime. The team has to get all the way to respectability before they come back. They have to anticipate and stay ahead. If they wait until fan dissatisfaction shows then the dissatisfaction has momentum. It takes years to turn it around.

Agreed

 

[Hunter368]

With new management in Toronto the Jets and Leafs are now following the same building plan. The only difference is the Leafs are far more aggressive in tearing down their older core. But is this a philosophy that you need to cut deeper or the practicality of the core players in the organization. Kessel at $8 M Vs. Wheeeler at $5.6 M. Phaneuf at $7 M Vs. Buff at $5.2 M (now $7.6).

IMO this will be a lot more successful for both organizations than the "patch and overpay for today at the expense of the future model" the leafs were managed under for the past few decades.

Agreed totally, I don't think anyone would disagree with this.....that's my point.

 

[CaptainChef]

I don't see fan apathy. Every game I was at there was just as much passion as there always has been. And I never have a problem distributing any tickets I don't want, of course I use a private network of friends and sell them for my price. I did this year 1 and will do it in year 20. What I've seen is ST groups open up as fans get a better handle on how many games they can comfortably attend. In Chipman's FP article this morning he mentioned the organization could sell every available ticket as a ST if they wanted, but have made a business decision not to. They have now got ST renewal of over 95% for each level of seat as they became available.

I also disagree on how long fans will be patient. We dropped lower than Atlanta, but they did it without a single promising prospect in the system. We have a full stable kicking down the door. The discussions I've had with other ST holders is more along the lines of if they should go even younger next season and move out some more vets as they age. IMO there is an appreciation out there that you can't cheat the building process. Again IMO the evolution of this team is being lead by Chipman's vision and Chevy is as safe as can be as long as he implements the vision.

How can you seriously say that? If you can't see the difference in passion and hear the difference in crowd participation now vs the first 2-3 years you're either not paying attention or you have a short memory span. Its day and night and as many have said, its a LOT harder getting rid of tickets this year than its ever been

 

[Whileee]

How can you seriously say that? If you can't see the difference in passion and hear the difference in crowd participation now vs the first 2-3 years you're either not paying attention or you have a short memory span. Its day and night and as many have said, its a LOT harder getting rid of tickets this year than its ever been

I'm a STH. I probably don't cheer as loudly at many games as I did in the first couple of years. Of course I'll be more "passionate" when they are in the thick of a playoff race. I expect to hang on to my STs for the next generation, if possible.

 

[KingBogo]

How can you seriously say that? If you can't see the difference in passion and hear the difference in crowd participation now vs the first 2-3 years you're either not paying attention or you have a short memory span. Its day and night and as many have said, its a LOT harder getting rid of tickets this year than its ever been

I guess we sit in different sections. And it hasn't taken me more than 10-15 minutes to sell off a ticket. I once had to make a second call. Chipman addressed this in his FP article this morning. If the organization wanted they could easily tie up every available seat through ST holders. If we are at the low ebb of fan interest than the future is very secure indeed.

 

[Aavco Cup]

The Isles gave up a lot of prospect strength to put the finishing touches on their current team. Boychuk and Leddy being the most recent pieces.

Don't forget that womderful Vanek trade

 

[Hunter368]

How can you seriously say that? If you can't see the difference in passion and hear the difference in crowd participation now vs the first 2-3 years you're either not paying attention or you have a short memory span. Its day and night and as many have said, its a LOT harder getting rid of tickets this year than its ever been

Sorry King, I completely agree with this.

To a degree that's natural after five years, but it's a fine line between the two.....TNSE will be watching that line very careful and will take any action they feel required to stop it.....if they feel it gets to a dangerous point. If that happens, no ones job is safe......they just don't feel they are currently there yet.

 

[KingBogo]

Sorry King, I completely agree with this.

To a degree that's natural after five years, but it's a fine line between the two.....TNSE will be watching that line very careful and will take any action they feel required to stop it.....if they feel it gets to a dangerous point. If that happens, no ones job is safe......they just don't feel they are currently there yet.

I don't think they are anywhere near that point. Winnipeg is not going to let another team slip through their fingers. The passion remains, we just can't compare the nightly excitement from a playoff run last year to a playing out the stretch the following year. If we are in a playoff race next season there will be absolutely no difference from last season. I'm looking/thinking big picture. If you already have apathy you are pretty much fair weather to start with.

 

[CaptainChef]

Lol, ridiculous, 7 to 8 years to build a winning team? Are you under the delusion that cup contending teams are put together in 3 to 5 year periods?

Instead of having your timelines being the barometer for building actual cup contending teams, try looking at actual cup contending team, and trace back their steps. With almost each and everyone, the building process was 8 to 10 years.

So, whether you agree with this or not, absolutely does not matter, because factually, building winning hockey teams takes a very long time.

As for questioning the D and D process, try accounting for several draft picks that have already produced well at the NHL level. Scheif, Trouba, Ehlers, Lowry, Copp, Armia, Hellebuyck.

With common sense, you can grade a draft pick fully, 4 to 5 years after being drafted. As well, if you can draft 2 players per draft, that amount to regular productive NHL players, you are probably slightly above the league average.

With this common sense, we should realistically only be looking at 4 draft picks playing productive NHL minutes, and that would be very good. Yet today, we have around 8 draft picks that are going to be regular NHL players, along with another 4 or 5 prospects that are shaping into NHL players. That is an excellent output for draft and developing.

So maybe instead of judging the success of this team, based off your timelines, do it based of off league timelines, as one is completely inaccurate and unreasonable, the other 100% factual.

As a matter of fact, good cup-winning teams can and have be built in 5 years or less. Pitts was supreme crap before they drafted Malkin, Fleury & Letang (2004 & 2005). By 07-08 they were very good; won the cup in 08-09. Likewise Chi was no good until they drafted Toews and Kane (2006 & 07). Perennial cup contender & won by 2009-10

 

[Eyeseeing]

Lol, ridiculous, 7 to 8 years to build a winning team? Are you under the delusion that cup contending teams are put together in 3 to 5 year periods?

Instead of having your timelines being the barometer for building actual cup contending teams, try looking at actual cup contending team, and trace back their steps. With almost each and everyone, the building process was 8 to 10 years.

So, whether you agree with this or not, absolutely does not matter, because factually, building winning hockey teams takes a very long time.

As for questioning the D and D process, try accounting for several draft picks that have already produced well at the NHL level. Scheif, Trouba, Ehlers, Lowry, Copp, Armia, Hellebuyck.

With common sense, you can grade a draft pick fully, 4 to 5 years after being drafted. As well, if you can draft 2 players per draft, that amount to regular productive NHL players, you are probably slightly above the league average.

With this common sense, we should realistically only be looking at 4 draft picks playing productive NHL minutes, and that would be very good. Yet today, we have around 8 draft picks that are going to be regular NHL players, along with another 4 or 5 prospects that are shaping into NHL players. That is an excellent output for draft and developing.

So maybe instead of judging the success of this team, based off your timelines, do it based of off league timelines, as one is completely inaccurate and unreasonable, the other 100% factual.

I'm not talking cup contender necessarily.
In a league where a little more than half make the playoffs, we made it once.
I am really hopeful this youth movement works out but my issue is this organizations propensity to not correct long standing errors which if addressed early on would have likely had us making the playoffs at least one or two additional times
We all know which mistake this is

 

[Hunter368]

I don't think they are anywhere near that point. Winnipeg is not going to let another team slip through their fingers. The passion remains, we just can't compare the nightly excitement from a playoff run last year to a playing out the stretch the following year. If we are in a playoff race next season there will be absolutely no difference from last season. I'm looking/thinking big picture. If you already have apathy you are pretty much fair weather to start with.

Don't disagree with this, but what if we continue to lose year after year.....for 2-3 more years.....i think things could get a bit ugly.

I refuse to listen to the post game shows anymore, nothing but hate for Chevy and the team

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

As a matter of fact, good cup-winning teams can and have be built in 5 years or less. Pitts was supreme crap before they drafted Malkin, Fleury & Letang (2004 & 2005). By 07-08 they were very good; won the cup in 08-09. Likewise Chi was no good until they drafted Toews and Kane (2006 & 07). Perennial cup contender & won by 2009-10

False

Chicago was building a cup winner 5 years prior, unless of course you view players like Duncan Keith, Cory Crawford, Seabrook and Buff as fillers, that had little to do with their cup success?