Speculation: Chevy Job Security

[garret9]

The aging Jason Spezza? Isn't everyone aging? Isn't Spezza the guy who score 30 goals this year. If I am correct he would have led the Jets in goals this year. They also pretty much gave up nothing so far to get him.

Yes everyone is aging Joe.

But, there are some here that say the Jets not acquiring certain types of players is part of the plan. Their premise is the Jets are rebuilding around a new core and going with a youth movement, which was the plan from the very start.

Yet, the Jets actively tried to acquire players that are of the same age group and type those arguing that ideal were saying the Jets were avoiding due to the plan.

I'm not belittling Chevy or saying he's wrong for going after those players. I'm just pointing out that there are many things Chevy has attempted to do that is counter to a narrative that is constantly being pushed by many here.

This shouldn't be too hard Joe.

Personally I think Chevy just does what he can that he thinks will improve the team, long and short term, when he feels the opportunity presents itself. He is a human that is doing the job he's been given to do. I don't think he's doomed the Jets, nor do I think he's been perfect. Whether or not he's above or below average is up for debate.

It's not some "grand plan or scheme" nor is he trying to do anything other than help the Jets. It's not unusual nor is it dissimilar from what other teams try to do. I have no qualms with it, just what some push as being perfection of some great and masterful artwork of no failure and team building that goes around here sometimes (okay massive hyperbole but still feels like it at times).

I'm exaggerating a bit, but it does feel at times like this board can get stuck in two encampments of Chevy can do no wrong vs no right.
The no right camp constantly brings up the misses of Chevy, while the no wrong camp constantly positions every (potential) mistake as if having a reason is the same as having the right reason.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Given your post history, we could win the cup in 7 and you would say that it took too many games.

Sip wouldn't be wrong
First we have to make the playoffs
THEN we have to win A playoff game.
Chevy will be here for the first 10
years book it

 

[Aavco Cup]

Maybe, maybe not......only time will tell.

But Im sure you would agree an owner typically supports their GM publically until the GM is fired. Thus there is no logical point to put any weight on any public support he gives to his GM. I'll judge on actions, results, contract extension, etc.

Did you actually listen to Chipman?

 

[Whileee]

I don't see many people disagreeing with the plan, most agree it's logical. IMO whe evaluating a person's performance you must look at how much time is required to achieve a goal before evaluating if a person did a good job or not even assuming he eventually achieved the goal.

As the saying goes even a blind squirrel finds a nut eventually.

I don't have an issue with the strategy, but I might have an issue with how long Chevy takes to achieve his goal (building a consistent playoff team).

Fair enough, but if the strategy is to build a contender largely through the draft, there is a fixed time period that it takes to get there. As has been pointed out here and by Chevy earlier this week, the Jets first ever draft pick (Scheifele) is just now emerging into a top-end player. Could we have really expected a more accelerated path to real success if it's only just this season that the first fruits of the draft are ready to lead?

The only other path to acceleration would have been via trading for or signing older players. I could see signing a UFA, where you don't have to give assets, but that assumes the UFA wants to sign with your team. Or you could rearrange your vets with player-for-player trades. But if the ultimate success is based on your effectiveness at drafting and developing, then there aren't many good short-cuts.

I'm always skeptical about all of these rumors about attempted trades or signings. The fact of the matter is that Chevy has stated from the start that he's focusing on drafting and development, and he hasn't made one substantial trade that gave up futures for a high-priced vet. I've also seen rumors that Chevy has tried to trade up for the #1 overall, but have no evidence to support it.

We have no idea what the situation with Ladd was, but the fact is that he didn't sign him. Perhaps he only offered a relatively short-term deal, in keeping with the team's strategy, and Ladd rejected it. Claiming that he stumbled his way into trading Ladd and re-signing Buff is pure conjecture based on some subjective underlying assumptions about Chevy. The impression I got from the Buff interview was that the Jets held firm on the contract terms, and Buff ended up deciding he didn't want to play anywhere else.

 

[Hunter368]

Did you actually listen to Chipman?

Yes, said what I would of expected

 

[Whileee]

Yes everyone is aging Joe.

But, there are some here that say the Jets not acquiring certain types of players is part of the plan. Their premise is the Jets are rebuilding around a new core and going with a youth movement, which was the plan from the very start.

Yet, the Jets actively tried to acquire players that are of the same age group and type those arguing that ideal were saying the Jets were avoiding due to the plan.

I'm not belittling Chevy or saying he's wrong for going after those players. I'm just pointing out that there are many things Chevy has attempted to do that is counter to a narrative that is constantly being pushed by many here.

This shouldn't be too hard Joe.

Personally I think Chevy just does what he can that he thinks will improve the team, long and short term, when he feels the opportunity presents itself. He is a human that is doing the job he's been given to do. I don't think he's doomed the Jets, nor do I think he's been perfect. Whether or not he's above or below average is up for debate.

It's not some "grand plan or scheme" nor is he trying to do anything other than help the Jets. It's not unusual nor is it dissimilar from what other teams try to do. I have no qualms with it, just what some push as being perfection of some great and masterful artwork of no failure and team building that goes around here sometimes (okay massive hyperbole but still feels like it at times).

I'm exaggerating a bit, but it does feel at times like this board can get stuck in two encampments of Chevy can do no wrong vs no right.
The no right camp constantly brings up the misses of Chevy, while the no wrong camp constantly positions every (potential) mistake as if having a reason is the same as having the right reason.

Do you have evidence to support all of these rumors about players that Chevy was supposedly trying to trade for? Spezza seems pretty far-fetched, since it was widely known that he wasn't keen on waiving his NTC, and everyone knew that Winnipeg was on it. I could see him trying to sign a top-end FA forward or two as a UFA, because it wouldn't cost any future assets and the Jets had cap space that would come off the books when their top young players were needing big deals.

I tend to agree with you regarding the tendency to over-simplify Chevy's "strategy". Chevy himself indicated that he always looks at a variety of opportunities, citing Lamoriello who reportedly said "I have a five-year plan that's going to change every single day".

I think that the Jets made a conscious decision over the past couple of seasons to select a smaller core of vets and make a transition now. Some of that might have been forced by issues with Kane, and perhaps Bogo, such that they realized that they couldn't count on them as part of a younger core. Some of it might have been due to a better-than-expected haul in the drafts, with players like Scheifele, Trouba, Ehlers, etc.

Regardless, they are where they are. Chevy hasn't made any major blunders and they've stocked the franchise with a pretty large and impressive group of prospects and picks. They also appear to have kept the best vets from the original core.

 

[Hunter368]

Wheelee

I don't see anyone disagreeing with the overall strategy from day one. No one has said trade away all our high end futures. People are saying there is a happy medium between D&D and trade away all high end futures. Plus there's more then just D&D to improve the team. Plus once you make a mistake admit it, fix it and move on. Not sure about you, but I hate it when people refuse to admit mistakes or ignore them or work around them for years.

To-date I've seen Chevy admit one mistake only and fix it (Ponk). We all know there have been many others, biggest being our second pairing LHD for multi years and our starting goalie. Pavs contract might rival as one of the worse on the impact of any team in the last decade.

 

[tbcwpg]

At least you are admitting that the plan seems to have shifted along the way. The Parise, Statsny, Spezza attempts demonstrate that the "we've stuck with our plan from day 1" talking point is complete nonsense. Interestingly, they were willing to shell out all kinds of dough to sign some vets but they never put an extra nickel into goaltending. Wonder if Parise/Statsny/Spezza would have mattered much.

I don't think I've ever said that this season is the result of a plan started from the beginning. I think he took a look at opportunities as they arose, and took some and left others on the table. If anything, I think the people who say that Chevy has "failed" are the ones who are more committed to this "plan from day 1" discussion. It implies that there's only been one direction possibly considered and that it was an all or nothing scenario there.

All avenues as to whether you go with vets or go with youth have their uncertainties. I would think that the Wild would not be too happy with the way their team has gone since signing Parise and Suter - they went in on the big names now and they're arguably no better off than the Jets, with a much cloudier future.

I would probably sum up my position that this core was average, and if you're going to gamble on the future, I'd rather do it with kids than crazy FA contracts. There are examples of success and failure in both models, but I'm personally more comfortable with this method.

I'm exaggerating a bit, but it does feel at times like this board can get stuck in two encampments of Chevy can do no wrong vs no right.
The no right camp constantly brings up the misses of Chevy, while the no wrong camp constantly positions every (potential) mistake as if having a reason is the same as having the right reason.

That's the nature of debating topics ad infinitum - eventually you stop discussing the ins and outs of a position and you boil it down to good or bad.

 

[JetsFan815]

I implied that if the Islanders is the type of team we'd be satisfied with - occasional playoff appearances with no success to speak of, then I'd rather take one step back to take 2 steps forward ahead of them.

You make it sound like being like the Islanders is something that we'd be "settling for". The Islanders are the team that the Jets wish to be, great now, great future with tons of great prospects to keep being a perpetual playoff team, There is no guarantee that the Jets will be able to take 2 steps ahead of them, they are killing it with their prospects too.

This underlines a larger frustration I have that people seem to think that the Jets exist in a vacuum and that there are no other teams who are improving t, worst yet some of these teams that are keeping pace with the Jets in their prospect pool are already solid playoff teams/contenders right now (Islanders, Blues, Ducks, Stars come to mind)

 

[robertocarlos]

I'll say. That would be one playoff berth and zero playoff games won in seven seasons at the helm. No GM should be afforded that kind of job security, not even one that takes over an expansion team.

My guess: if they miss the playoffs next season, he'll be given a one year extension in the summer of 2017, just so he's not GMing in a lame duck, final year of contract situation. If it's clear they're going to be missing the playoffs again in 2017-18, he needs to be turfed.

They will probably, short of a draft miracle, miss the playoffs next year. A one year extension before 17/18 is hardly a vote of confidence, it must be 2 years. Then if they miss the playoffs in 17/18 fire him and eat the 2 years. Ha, like that would ever happen. There'd be a conflict between cheap and loyal and somebody's head would explode.

 

[Duke749]

Wrong.
WRONG WRONG WRONG. Wrong wrong wrong.

-Pavelec
-Stuart
-Frolik
-Stempniak
-Not trading Kane for years and years despite Kane begging him

I mean, really?

You really think those two are on the same level as the Pav contract? I mean really? Seriously?

 

[Aavco Cup]

Yes, said what I would of expected

If you listened to him then I'd like to know what could possibly happen next season that would prevent an extension for Chevy? I see it as inevitable.

 

[Aavco Cup]

You make it sound like being like the Islanders is something that we'd be "settling for". The Islanders are the team that the Jets wish to be, great now, great future with tons of great prospects to keep being a perpetual playoff team, There is no guarantee that the Jets will be able to take 2 steps ahead of them, they are killing it with their prospects too.

This underlines a larger frustration I have that people seem to think that the Jets exist in a vacuum and that there are no other teams who are improving t, worst yet some of these teams that are keeping pace with the Jets in their prospect pool are already solid playoff teams/contenders right now (Islanders, Blues, Ducks, Stars come to mind)

The Islanders were bottom feeders for nearly a decade. You want to emulate that?

 

[robertocarlos]

Oh I'm pretty sure a bunch thought Chevy, Mo and Chipman would be sipping out of Lord Stanley's mug this year!

Everybody knows the parade is happening 18/19. Why aren't you onboard?

 

[tbcwpg]

You make it sound like being like the Islanders is something that we'd be "settling for". The Islanders are the team that the Jets wish to be, great now, great future with tons of great prospects to keep being a perpetual playoff team, There is no guarantee that the Jets will be able to take 2 steps ahead of them, they are killing it with their prospects too.

This underlines a larger frustration I have that people seem to think that the Jets exist in a vacuum and that there are no other teams who are improving t, worst yet some of these teams that are keeping pace with the Jets in their prospect pool are already solid playoff teams/contenders right now (Islanders, Blues, Ducks, Stars come to mind)

Rushing it has never been the best strategy in the NHL, not since the cap came into play. Not sure how a team with no prospect pool and no success catches up to these consistently improving teams (not sure I'd really term the Stars or Blues as having great prospect pools either, and even the Ducks is a bit of a stretch) without developing their own players to become a consistently good team. Good teams, at least consistently good teams, are built together and are not mish mash parts from other teams.

The Islanders have done well lately - I'd stop short of calling them "successful" though, since they've won as many playoff series as the Jets since 1993, and that includes a 15 year gap where there was no team here.

 

[Analyst365]

Whatever happens next year - it'll all be part of the plan.

The same plan that gets planned after it happens.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

If you listen to the Chevy interview on Hustler & Lawless, you'll notice that he keeps referencing the 2011 draft and how they didn't have a pick in the 2nd round because Atlanta traded it away in the Keith Tkachuk trade to make a splash for the playoffs. He used it as an example to perfectly contrast the different philosophies between Atlanta trading away the future vs Jets building from the draft.

Fun fact: Atlanta traded the 2011 2nd round pick along with Ivan Vishnevskiy for Andrew Ladd.

That's not the first time Chevy has used that trade as an example, so either he genuinely believes thats what happened or he is lying to make a point, comfortable in the knowledge that neither Hustler or Lawless would correct him or bring up the Setogouchi trade.

 

[Whileee]

Wrong.
WRONG WRONG WRONG. Wrong wrong wrong.

-Pavelec
-Stuart
-Frolik
-Stempniak
-Not trading Kane for years and years despite Kane begging him

I mean, really?

Those are all mistakes or blunders, but none of them rise to the level of "major blunder" in terms of affecting the franchise's ultimate success. A major blunder is trading away a future star (e.g. Seguin), or being saddled with a crippling contract (e.g. Clarkson or Carle), or trading away key draft picks for a real dud (I'll give you Setoguchi).

Funny that after 5 years the list of "major" blunders remains relatively short and bland, and includes pretty minor issues like not trading Kane soon enough (but then trading him for a big haul), and not signing a 3rd line winger that no other team would sign.

 

[Whileee]

If you listen to the Chevy interview on Hustler & Lawless, you'll notice that he keeps referencing the 2011 draft and that they didn't have a pick in the 2nd round because Atlanta traded it away in the Keith Tkachuk trade to make a splash for the playoffs. He used it as an example to perfectly contrast the different philosophies between Atlanta trading away the future vs Jets building from the draft.

Fun fact: Atlanta traded the 2011 2nd round pick along with Ivan Vishnevskiy for Andrew Ladd.

That's not the first time Chevy has used that trade as an example, so either he genuinely believes thats what happened or he is lying to make a point, comfortable in the knowledge that neither Hustler or Lawless would correct him or bring up the Setogouchi trade.

I think the point about Tkachuk is that the Thrashers traded a lot of futures to acquire him at the trade deadline for a playoff run (they were swept in the first round). The Thrashers traded a 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick to rent Tkachuk, as I recall. Those picks were in 2007 and 2008, not 2011.

 

[Blue Shakehead]

Those are all mistakes or blunders, but none of them rise to the level of "major blunder" in terms of affecting the franchise's ultimate success. A major blunder is trading away a future star (e.g. Seguin), or being saddled with a crippling contract (e.g. Clarkson or Carle), or trading away key draft picks for a real dud (I'll give you Setoguchi).

Funny that after 5 years the list of "major" blunders remains relatively short and bland, and includes pretty minor issues like not trading Kane soon enough (but then trading him for a big haul), and not signing a 3rd line winger that no other team would sign.

If Pavelecs contract, or specifically Chevy's refusal to get out of it, is not considered a major blunder, then there is no such thing as a major blunder. In fact, any moves to make the team more competitive while he remains the starter could be classified as blunders because each season is doomed with him as the #1.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'll re-post what I said two years from now when Chevy is on HC #3 and the team is still out of the playoffs!

If that is the case 2 years from now I'll be on board with a new GM. Chipman probably will be too.

If we miss the POs again next year, which is quite likely then Chevy will be on a short leash the year after. In 7 years a good GM can get an expansion team into the playoffs. I mean a typical expansion team from the past not the well started one we are going to see next time.

Edit:FYI the Thrashers made the POs in their 7th season.

 

[Aavco Cup]

If that is the case 2 years from now I'll be on board with a new GM. Chipman probably will be too.

If we miss the POs again next year, which is quite likely then Chevy will be on a short leash the year after. In 7 years a good GM can get an expansion team into the playoffs. I mean a typical expansion team from the past not the well started one we are going to see next time.

Edit:FYI the Thrashers made the POs in their 7th season.

Regardless of whether the team makes the playoffs or not next year Chevy will get a contract extension. Chipman will never let him be on a lame duck season in 17/18. Unlikely that he is replaced shortly after getting an extension IMO.

So I don't agree that the leash will be short.

 

[Whileee]

If Pavelecs contract, or specifically Chevy's refusal to get out of it, is not considered a major blunder, then there is no such thing as a major blunder. In fact, any moves to make the team more competitive while he remains the starter could be classified as blunders because each season is doomed with him as the #1.

Pavs is signed for next year, but I doubt he'll be the starter. Last season they were perfectly prepared to move to Hutch as their #1, and did so during a mid-season stretch until Hutch wilted and they went back to Pavs.

I suppose they could have taken the tactic that the Flames or Stars did and tried some short-term solutions in goal, but didn't really work out. The Stars are going to have a back-up goalie on the books at $4.5M for the next couple of seasons. Was that a major blunder? It will be if the lack of cap space forces them to lose a valuable player from their roster. Otherwise, I'd say it was a blunder but not "major".

 

[garret9]

Do you have evidence to support all of these rumors about players that Chevy was supposedly trying to trade for? Spezza seems pretty far-fetched, since it was widely known that he wasn't keen on waiving his NTC, and everyone knew that Winnipeg was on it. I could see him trying to sign a top-end FA forward or two as a UFA, because it wouldn't cost any future assets and the Jets had cap space that would come off the books when their top young players were needing big deals.

I tend to agree with you regarding the tendency to over-simplify Chevy's "strategy". Chevy himself indicated that he always looks at a variety of opportunities, citing Lamoriello who reportedly said "I have a five-year plan that's going to change every single day".

I think that the Jets made a conscious decision over the past couple of seasons to select a smaller core of vets and make a transition now. Some of that might have been forced by issues with Kane, and perhaps Bogo, such that they realized that they couldn't count on them as part of a younger core. Some of it might have been due to a better-than-expected haul in the drafts, with players like Scheifele, Trouba, Ehlers, etc.

Regardless, they are where they are. Chevy hasn't made any major blunders and they've stocked the franchise with a pretty large and impressive group of prospects and picks. They also appear to have kept the best vets from the original core.

Spezza I know from both Friedman and also Spezza's agent
Parise and Statsny negotiations Chevy himself talked about

He may or may not have made blunders... Hockey is a zero sum game and it still remains to be seen if the prospect stocking has been enough to make up for losing NHL talent and also other teams also stocking their own prospects.

I though do not pretend to know the answer.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I gave Chevy a "B" grade before last season (2014-15), and a "B" grade after they made the playoffs, and still give him a "B" grade. Vacillating up and down over year-by-year performances doesn't make much sense for evaluating an organizational development that takes several years to complete.

Frankly, despite the excitement of the playoffs last season I hoped and expected that the Jets would go with a youth movement this year and knew that would likely mean that they would take a step backward in the standings. I think it's actually a bonus that their step backward this season resulted in trading Ladd, and ending up with a top 6-7 draft pick and 3 picks in the top 36. In my view, that's better than being on the playoff bubble, re-signing Ladd and not accelerating the development of young players.

In many ways, I like where this franchise is now more than at the end of last season. I see much more potential for growth and sustained competitiveness.

I still give Chevy a "B".

Alternate history dept: Jets lineup '15/'16
L - L - W
Perreault - Scheif - Frolik
Stemp - Lowry - Ehlers
Thor/Petan - Copp - Armia
Peluso

Trouba - Buff
Enstrom - Myers
Chiarot - Postma
Stu

Helle
Pav

Petan starts in the A but moves up pushing Thor to the PB after 25 games.

Would that team have made the PO's? Would Frolik, Stemp, a better handled Petan and Helle have added 5 wins? We'll never know.

I'm not trying to restart old Stemp/Frolik Arguments. Just trying to point out that the 'youth movement' didn't have to mean competing for Matthews. There were options.

That said I lean in the same direction as the bolded paragraph.

When I look at potential lineups for next year I see no Thor, Peluso, Pav or Stu and think it can be a very competitive team. It may fall a bit short due to inexperience but that will soon be overcome. OTOH I look at the same lineup and think I might be overrating it a bit and the potential is not really there to be any better than we were a year or two ago. Bubble time in no man's land.

Then I look at the same lineup but with Stu, Thor and Pav back in and think we might just tank again next year. My optimism is fragile. There are always a couple of players who fail to live up to expectations for one reason or another.