Speculation: Chevy Job Security

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
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Lord knows we already blame Chevy personally for drafting Lowry & Serville over Johnny Hockey and then drafting dregs like Lukas Sutter, Zach Yuen, Jack Glover, etc, etc.

Oh right, nobody blames him for that.

Nonsense. I think he wears his whole draft record, but especially from 2012 and beyond. If the Jets prospect pool was still shallow and full of duds, I'd be the first one with a pitchfork to run him out of town. I would bet that Chipman would be ready to dump him, too. I think that the reason that Chipman still supports Chevy, and many fans do as well, is that they believe that the team has done a good job of drafting and building up a prospect pool, without making egregious errors to undermine the future of the team.
 

Gm0ney

Unicorns salient
Oct 12, 2011
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Actually it really is not that hard to at least get an initial indication of how successful our drafts have been. First of all first round picks are the corner stone for draft value and for us they probably represent about 65 to 70% of the potential value based on our draft position in the past 5 years. Our five first rounders over that time frame (ignoring the additional 1st from last year) were Scheifele, Trouba, Morrissey, Ehlers and Connor. How many teams would absolutely love to have that list of first rounders over that time period? From my perspective the list of team's I would trade our guys for is very short.

The picks after those first rounders are clearly much harder to evaluate but by all appearances we should be at least average for that part of the draft given what we are seeing so far from players like Helle, Petan, Lowry and Copp.

Anyway my main point is that the success of our first round picks over the past five years will be the main determining factor in how successful we have drafted over that time frame. Clearly we also need to hit on some guys later in the draft but the first round is where the real value will ultimately lie.

Keep in mind the Jets' average first pick from 2011-15 has been 11th overall. That's the 5th highest average draft spot in the NHL over that period (Edmonton, Buffalo, Florida, NY Islanders and Jets are the Top 5, in order).

So you'd expect the Jets 1st rounders to be about a Top 5 in the league prospect pool, drafting from where they have been.
 

Hunter368

RIP lomiller1, see you in the next life buddy.
Nov 8, 2011
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Nonsense. I think he wears his whole draft record, but especially from 2012 and beyond. If the Jets prospect pool was still shallow and full of duds, I'd be the first one with a pitchfork to run him out of town. I would bet that Chipman would be ready to dump him, too. I think that the reason that Chipman still supports Chevy, and many fans do as well, is that they believe that the team has done a good job of drafting and building up a prospect pool, without making egregious errors to undermine the future of the team.

Let's be honest, it's the only reason he's still here, he's built the prospect pool but not much else. I'm fine giving him a bit more time as I stated before.....another 1-2 years to let his strategy develop.
 

Hunter368

RIP lomiller1, see you in the next life buddy.
Nov 8, 2011
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Keep in mind the Jets' average first pick from 2011-15 has been 11th overall. That's the 5th highest average draft spot in the NHL over that period (Edmonton, Buffalo, Florida, NY Islanders and Jets are the Top 5, in order).

So you'd expect the Jets 1st rounders to be about a Top 5 in the league prospect pool, drafting from where they have been.

Interesting and good point. Didn't know that.
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
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33,132
Let's be honest, it's the only reason he's still here, he's built the prospect pool but not much else. I'm fine giving him a bit more time as I stated before.....another 1-2 years to let his strategy develop.

If the prospect pool pans out, that will mean substantial progress. If not, he should and will be gone within a few years.

I'd also say that he's marshaled the cap resources quite well. He doesn't have any real albatross contracts that will constrain the building of a contender over the next few years.
 

Hunter368

RIP lomiller1, see you in the next life buddy.
Nov 8, 2011
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If the prospect pool pans out, that will mean substantial progress. If not, he should and will be gone within a few years.

I'd also say that he's marshaled the cap resources quite well. He doesn't have any real albatross contracts that will constrain the building of a contender over the next few years.

I agree with paragraph one, less so with paragraph two. Imo the Stuart/Pavs contracts relative to where they play, slotted in the line up (top 4 lhd, #1G) and term.......have had a huge neg on this team. Those two guys alone cost us points over the years and very possibly multi playoff spots. Thank God, one is nearly gone and the other is finally being given a lesser role.
 

Whileee

Registered User
May 29, 2010
46,075
33,132
I agree with paragraph one, less so with paragraph two. Imo the Stuart/Pavs contracts relative to where they play, slotted in the line up (top 4 lhd, #1G) and term.......have had a huge neg on this team. Those two guys alone cost us points over the years and very possibly multi playoff spots. Thank God, one is nearly gone and the other is finally being given a lesser role.

Stu and Pavs contracts are really bad, but don't pull the Jets anywhere close to cap purgatory. I think a lot of the problem was bad decisions about usage. A lot of that is on Maurice.
 

Hunter368

RIP lomiller1, see you in the next life buddy.
Nov 8, 2011
26,991
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Stu and Pavs contracts are really bad, but don't pull the Jets anywhere close to cap purgatory. I think a lot of the problem was bad decisions about usage. A lot of that is on Maurice.

Stu and Pavs contracts didn't pull the Jets anywhere near cap purgatory.......but they sure pulled them close to non-playoffs purgatory over the last five years. ;)

Sure it's a lot about usage, but the GM is just as reasponible for the coach as he is for the players on the roster.

But I'm looking forward to the draft and next year. We can only go up from here. :yo:
 

SKODEN

Registered User
Apr 19, 2016
35
0
I have 2 scenerios for how long Chevys leash is and I would love to get your opinions on them

First I feel the Buff signing length tells us all we need to know. Chevy plans on going for it by 5 years time. Which means he would be safe for that time. You would think that was part of the reason Buff stayed at a contract that was lower then he could of received somewhere else. He was told that they are going for it in the next couple years.

My other scenerio is the length of the Sheif deal. Imo Mark signifies the start of the D & D model. And now we can can tell he will be the future cap either soon or after wheeler. So maybe until the core Sheifs leads to battle fails Chevy is safe.
 

sipowicz

The thrill is gone
Mar 16, 2011
31,610
41,100
I have 2 scenerios for how long Chevys leash is and I would love to get your opinions on them

First I feel the Buff signing length tells us all we need to know. Chevy plans on going for it by 5 years time. Which means he would be safe for that time. You would think that was part of the reason Buff stayed at a contract that was lower then he could of received somewhere else. He was told that they are going for it in the next couple years.

My other scenerio is the length of the Sheif deal. Imo Mark signifies the start of the D & D model. And now we can can tell he will be the future cap either soon or after wheeler. So maybe until the core Sheifs leads to battle fails Chevy is safe.

First off welcome "new guy"! Chevy gets two years to get the team back into the playoffs or else.
 

SKODEN

Registered User
Apr 19, 2016
35
0
First off welcome "new guy"! Chevy gets two years to get the team back into the playoffs or else.

Thanks! Glad to be here. I agree with you that his leash should be a couple more years. But deep down I feel its 5 to 8 years still. Chevy wont be a failure to Chipman untill " his" core has had its shot. And a long one at that.
 

Eyeseeing

Fagheddaboudit
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Feb 24, 2015
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Thanks! Glad to be here. I agree with you that his leash should be a couple more years. But deep down I feel its 5 to 8 years still. Chevy wont be a failure to Chipman untill " his" core has had its shot. And a long one at that.

He will be here forever if we make the playoffs regardless of how we fare in the next 2 years ...
Sad but true
Chevy will do sweet FA this summer to correct repeated mistakes
 

KingBogo

Admitted Homer
Nov 29, 2011
31,704
39,867
Winnipeg
He will be here forever if we make the playoffs regardless of how we fare in the next 2 years ...
Sad but true
Chevy will do sweet FA this summer to correct repeated mistakes

Since the organization has made it clear to anyone who will listen they will be getting even younger next season. Which means they will be giving more of their prospects opportunities what repeated mistakes do you expect them to make? Since they can't re-sign Stu, do you expect them to re-sign Pavs and Thor early? Being overly loyal to those 3 are the organizations biggest mistakes to date.
 

PSGJ

Registered User
May 19, 2012
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0
Sweden
The cruelest thing one could call Chevy would be Cowardly Caretaker.

The kindest thing would be Mild Mannered Middle Man.

Such a GM is highly unlikely to win his team a Cup, but he is also unlikely to really hurt a team.

The worst kind of GM is the Confident Clown (see Nonis, David)

Also bad is the Desperate Danger-man (see GMGM trading away Forsberg for Erat)

A type of GM that is in some ways better and some ways worse is the Cowardly Clown who will bring your team to the depths of the standings, but at least give his successor many high draft picks to work with. (see quite a few Oilers GMs)

So to sum it up; could be worse, could be better.
 

ps241

The Ballad of Ville Bobby
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Mar 10, 2010
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OP title: Chevy Job security?

Answer: Yes

13 pages..... 300 plus posts for a rhetorical statement gang really? :dunno:
 

Mortimer Snerd

You kids get off my lawn!
Sponsor
Jun 10, 2014
57,393
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OP title: Chevy Job security?

Answer: Yes

13 pages..... 300 plus posts for a rhetorical statement gang really? :dunno:

But that really isn't the question is it.

Is Chevy's job secure now? Yes. Certainly

Will it be secure a year from now? Yes. With almost as much certainty.

Will it still be secure Dec. 31, '17? That depends. I think the free pass will have expired by then. Judgement by results, not process will have begun.
 

Evil Little

Registered User
Jan 22, 2014
6,311
2,739
Stop fighting guys or you'll get the Chevy thread closed. ;)

z1ToVbF.jpg
 

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