Speculation: Chevy Job Security

[KingBogo]

By the Meer fact where we drafted each year and not trading any away we couldn't help but improve our prospect pool. This fact does not mean that Chevy necessarily drafted above average. Like I said unproven to date, note I'm not saying he drafted poorly, it's unproven either way.

How much proof do you require?

 

[Hunter368]

How much proof do you require?

An actual analysis done, to date there is zero evidence to prove he has drafted above average.

 

[jiho]

There is no question Chevy has done a great job drafting and accumulating prospects. The question is the timing to mesh with the older players. Will Chevy resign Perrault? Little? Wheeler? Will they still be in their prime while our youth develop. If Chevy is just relying on they youth Schiefele on...then I believe he is making a mistake. To take advantage of the older guys Chevy appears to be moving to slow. It will be interesting to see if Chevy can put things together. I have my doubts.

 

[KingBogo]

An actual analysis done, to date there is zero evidence to prove he has drafted above average.

Fair enough. And if I remember some of Grind's numbers correctly the Jets are ahead of the curve on drafted players per draft making the NHL. But baring an analysis, I will happily put, Scheif, Trouba, Helly, Ehlers and Connor in my pocket and look forward to draft day.

 

[Hunter368]

There is no question Chevy has done a great job drafting and accumulating prospects. The question is the timing to mesh with the older players. Will Chevy resign Perrault? Little? Wheeler? Will they still be in their prime while our youth develop. If Chevy is just relying on they youth Schiefele on...then I believe he is making a mistake. To take advantage of the older guys Chevy appears to be moving to slow. It will be interesting to see if Chevy can put things together. I have my doubts.

No question Chevy has done a good job accumulating prospects.......the relative quality of his drafting vs where he selected is completely unproven to this point.

 

[JetsFan815]

I think Hunter is right. There is no evidence to suggest that the Jets drafting has been above average. 1st round picks seem to be fine (as they should considering the Jets drafted so high). But other than that I am not sure if we are above average. Scheifele and Lowry out of 2011, Trouba and Helle out of 2012, 2013 draft looks good at the moment, 2014 is nothing outside of Ehlers and 2015 is too early to tell (although the draftees had a meh draft+year outside of Connor and maybe Niku (relative to expectations)). I read somewhere that the average NHL team produces 2 NHL players per draft, not sure if that is still true but if it is we are right about average. More analysis needs to be done of the last 5 drafts before people can unequivocally claim that the Jets have beaten the averages in their drafting

 

[Hunter368]

Fair enough. And if I remember some of Grind's numbers correctly the Jets are ahead of the curve on drafted players per draft making the NHL. But baring an analysis, I will happily put, Scheif, Trouba, Helly, Ehlers and Connor in my pocket and look forward to draft day.

We all look forward to the draft, this team basically can only go in one direction from here.....up.

 

[Evil Little]

I believe that two players--at 200 NHL games played--per draft puts you quite well above average.

But 200 NHL games doesn't really carry enough meaning to me, anyway.

I'd want to have numbers from a much more elaborate statistical approach weighing games played with actual on-ice performance before stating comfortably that someone has, or has not, 'beaten the market'.

Unfortunately, I have neither the will nor the wherewithal to do it myself.

 

[winnipegger]

Should be careful about heaping praise on Chevy for basically taking advantage of mistakes. Benning was an absolute fool to take Virtanen over Ehlers (it was Benning right?). And words can't describe how foolish Boston was to skip Connor. The Schiefele pick, going off the board and hitting a homerun (it's a homerun in my eyes), was brilliant. Hellebuyck in late rounds, awesome.

Not all of these prospects are going to be roster players for the Jets. There just isn't enough roster room if they all hit their ceilings. With the more marginal players, your Petan's, Armia's, Dano's, the real question will be what kind of trade can he make to put the team into contender status. Petan and a 1st for a young LHD for example.

 

[DK59]

I think Hunter is right. There is no evidence to suggest that the Jets drafting has been above average. 1st round picks seem to be fine (as they should considering the Jets drafted so high). But other than that I am not sure if we are above average. Scheifele and Lowry out of 2011, Trouba and Helle out of 2012, 2013 draft looks good at the moment, 2014 is nothing outside of Ehlers and 2015 is too early to tell (although the draftees had a meh draft+year outside of Connor and maybe Niku (relative to expectations)). I read somewhere that the average NHL team produces 2 NHL players per draft, not sure if that is still true but if it is we are right about average. More analysis needs to be done of the last 5 drafts before people can unequivocally claim that the Jets have beaten the averages in their drafting

Actually it really is not that hard to at least get an initial indication of how successful our drafts have been. First of all first round picks are the corner stone for draft value and for us they probably represent about 65 to 70% of the potential value based on our draft position in the past 5 years. Our five first rounders over that time frame (ignoring the additional 1st from last year) were Scheifele, Trouba, Morrissey, Ehlers and Connor. How many teams would absolutely love to have that list of first rounders over that time period? From my perspective the list of team's I would trade our guys for is very short.

The picks after those first rounders are clearly much harder to evaluate but by all appearances we should be at least average for that part of the draft given what we are seeing so far from players like Helle, Petan, Lowry and Copp.

Anyway my main point is that the success of our first round picks over the past five years will be the main determining factor in how successful we have drafted over that time frame. Clearly we also need to hit on some guys later in the draft but the first round is where the real value will ultimately lie.

 

[Eyeseeing]

What would you do to address his mistakes this summer?

Definitely start with ridding the team of Pavs via buyout.
Unloading Stuart for anything we can get and possibly Thorbs as well.
Would very strongly consider moving Trouba via trade.
Would try to move Burmi for a younger LHD not critical but would consider.
Burmi does have value as PK but an easy contract to trade.
Would actively pursue a LHD via free agency.
Would send Mechiori back where he belongs, Lowry would be a member of the Moose to start.
Chiarot would be on a short leash.
Pascal Vincent gone
Wade Flaherty gone

 

[AWSAA]

The Schiefele pick, going off the board and hitting a homerun (it's a homerun in my eyes), was brilliant. Hellebuyck in late rounds, awesome.

Chipman is on record crediting the Scheifele pick to one of Atlanta's scouts. Hellebuyck... doubtful Chevy ever personally scouted him pre-draft.

The underlings who pushed for those two players have a better case to be kept on than Chevy does.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Definitely start with ridding the team of Pavs via buyout.
Unloading Stuart for anything we can get and possibly Thorbs as well.
Would very strongly consider moving Trouba via trade.
Would try to move Burmi for a younger LHD not critical but would consider.
Burmi does have value as PK but an easy contract to trade.
Would actively pursue a LHD via free agency.
Would send Mechiori back where he belongs, Lowry would be a member of the Moose to start.
Chiarot would be on a short leash.
Pascal Vincent gone
Wade Flaherty gone

Forgot
Peluso gone
Postma starts and stays

 

[Say What]

No one cares what division were in, we still have to win the same # of games and follow the same process to win the cup. No excuses......

I don't know what to say....you can't understand that factors affect a plan (short, medium or long range). Who needs excuses?

So playing weaker competition more times a year has no effect. Comparing this team to last year's would've at least been apples to apples. 2011 is irrelevant on numerous levels.

How about this; do you think Montreal would've been the same team had Price not gone down with a LTI (mitigating factor?). Same record at the finish line? Or is that an excuse? Maybe it has now exposed some things that otherwise might've been left unnoticed/unaddressed. Success is rarely linear.

It's never about excuses, it's about evaluating why results may or may not have been attained. And yes, those results still fall on the overseer (in this case Cheveldayoff).

I was simply stating that the final record of the Winnipeg Jets 2015/16 edition isn't (IMO) reflective of who they are VS the team 5 years ago. They're better, and you disagree.....duly noted.

You choose to stand by the stats (points/league ranking etc.), and that's fine. They do tell a story, but just one part of it. However if executives started tearing down a set course of action every time there is disappointments/setbacks, the franchise would be spinning it's wheels and bleeding money in a hurry. Not your money or mine, mind you.

I surmise you don't like Cheveldayoff's slow, methodical approach, I get that. I think Mark Chipman does.

If it's any consolation, I don't think Kevin Cheveldayoff will be the only GM of the Jets 2.0.

 

[JetsFan815]

Actually it really is not that hard to at least get an initial indication of how successful our drafts have been. First of all first round picks are the corner stone for draft value and for us they probably represent about 65 to 70% of the potential value based on our draft position in the past 5 years. Our five first rounders over that time frame (ignoring the additional 1st from last year) were Scheifele, Trouba, Morrissey, Ehlers and Connor. How many teams would absolutely love to have that list of first rounders over that time period? From my perspective the list of team's I would trade our guys for is very short.

The picks after those first rounders are clearly much harder to evaluate but by all appearances we should be at least average for that part of the draft given what we are seeing so far from players like Helle, Petan, Lowry and Copp.

Anyway my main point is that the success of our first round picks over the past five years will be the main determining factor in how successful we have drafted over that time frame. Clearly we also need to hit on some guys later in the draft but the first round is where the real value will ultimately lie.

Anecdotes are fine but I need data to see if we are anyway near above average. Since I was watching the Blues today, they've been on my mind, I checked in the last 6 drafts they have drafted Schwartz, Tarasenko, Jaskin, Rattie, Edmondson, Schmaltz, Parayko, Fabbri, Barabashev, Dunn. Not too shabby and I never even thought the Blues were a great drafting team. And that's a contending team that didn't even have a 1st round pick for a couple of those years and has never drafted in the top 10. I am not saying Jets are better or worse, I need to see some analysis to indicate one way or the other. One thing I think most people can agree on- the Jets are not so head and shoulders above everyone else in drafting that they can afford to neglect other parts involved in building an NHL team. The way people talk about Jets drafting is as if they have been routinely unearthing late round gems, which is not the case, they have done well in the 1st with some luck and other teams whiffing big time but I can't say that the jets are better than average with any degree of confidence

 

[winnipegger]

Chipman is on record crediting the Scheifele pick to one of Atlanta's scouts. Hellebuyck... doubtful Chevy ever personally scouted him pre-draft.

The underlings who pushed for those two players have a better case to be kept on than Chevy does.

If a captain of a ship takes the advice of an underling and avoids an iceberg the underling gets credit, but the Captain also gets a ton of credit for correctly identifying the best advice and signing off on it.

Analogies ftw

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

Should be careful about heaping praise on Chevy for basically taking advantage of mistakes. Benning was an absolute fool to take Virtanen over Ehlers (it was Benning right?). And words can't describe how foolish Boston was to skip Connor. The Schiefele pick, going off the board and hitting a homerun (it's a homerun in my eyes), was brilliant. Hellebuyck in late rounds, awesome.

Not all of these prospects are going to be roster players for the Jets. There just isn't enough roster room if they all hit their ceilings. With the more marginal players, your Petan's, Armia's, Dano's, the real question will be what kind of trade can he make to put the team into contender status. Petan and a 1st for a young LHD for example.

Players fall because many GMs pass, Connor did slip Boston 3 times, but he should have went top 10 in that draft. Virtanen was ranked ahead of Ehlers on a few draft boards, along with many having him in our range, so I wouldn't say Ehlers fell to us.

I believe Chevy wants 2 more years of collecting assets before he pulls a trade, to address needs he hasn't been able to address through the draft.

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

I don't know what to say....you can't understand that factors affect a plan (short, medium or long range). Who needs excuses?

So playing weaker competition more times a year has no effect. Comparing this team to last year's would've at least been apples to apples. 2011 is irrelevant on numerous levels.

How about this; do you think Montreal would've been the same team had Price not gone down with a LTI (mitigating factor?). Same record at the finish line? Or is that an excuse? Maybe it has now exposed some things that otherwise might've been left unnoticed/unaddressed. Success is rarely linear.

It's never about excuses, it's about evaluating why results may or may not have been attained. And yes, those results still fall on the overseer (in this case Cheveldayoff).

I was simply stating that the final record of the Winnipeg Jets 2015/16 edition isn't (IMO) reflective of who they are VS the team 5 years ago. They're better, and you disagree.....duly noted.

You choose to stand by the stats (points/league ranking etc.), and that's fine. They do tell a story, but just one part of it. However if executives started tearing down a set course of action every time there is disappointments/setbacks, the franchise would be spinning it's wheels and bleeding money in a hurry. Not your money or mine, mind you.

I surmise you don't like Cheveldayoff's slow, methodical approach, I get that. I think Mark Chipman does.

If it's any consolation, I don't think Kevin Cheveldayoff will be the only GM of the Jets 2.0.

Good post, and yes, Chevy will one day retire, turning the keys over to his replacement.

 

[KingBogo]

Chipman is on record crediting the Scheifele pick to one of Atlanta's scouts. Hellebuyck... doubtful Chevy ever personally scouted him pre-draft.

The underlings who pushed for those two players have a better case to be kept on than Chevy does.

Sorry but if Chevy gets blamed for everything you don't like he gets to keep the credit for what he has done. If the the pick failed you wouldn't hesitate a second to point at Chevy and yell Fail!

 

[DK59]

Anecdotes are fine but I need data to see if we are anyway near above average. Since I was watching the Blues today, they've been on my mind, I checked in the last 6 drafts they have drafted Schwartz, Tarasenko, Jaskin, Rattie, Edmondson, Schmaltz, Parayko, Fabbri, Barabashev, Dunn. Not too shabby and I never even thought the Blues were a great drafting team. And that's a contending team that didn't even have a 1st round pick for a couple of those years and has never drafted in the top 10. I am not saying Jets are better or worse, I need to see some analysis to indicate one way or the other. One thing I think most people can agree on- the Jets are not so head and shoulders above everyone else in drafting that they can afford to neglect other parts involved in building an NHL team. The way people talk about Jets drafting is as if they have been routinely unearthing late round gems, which is not the case, they have done well in the 1st with some luck and other teams whiffing big time but I can't say that the jets are better than average with any degree of confidence

The point of my post was not to say that the Jets were the only team that has drafted well because clearly there are a number of teams that this is true for. You are absolutely right St. Louis has drafted very well and I am very confident that an analysis of their draft performance would put them in the top tier for draft performance. There are also other teams that I could confidently make the same claim as well. I am still very confident in my statement that any team that drafts consistently well in the first round (i.e. drafts players that become part their core consistently year in year out) and supplements that with decent drafting after the first round will come out in the upper end of draft performance.

As for trading I don't think its been neglected because it does not represent a useful tool for building a team. I think the trading philosophy of the Jets is to only aggressively seek out trades when there is the depth in place to backfill the vacancy that is created as a result of the trade. Filling one hole that results in another significant hole being created does not serve any useful purpose. I would not be surprised to see a greater willingness to make trades going forward because the depth of the organization has now reached the stage where Chevy now has more bullets in his gun to take advantage in making strategic trades that will improve the roster.

 

[Scheifele55]

Based on Maurice and Cheveldayoff's comments this week, it looks like we will be getting even younger next season.

I'm okay with missing the playoffs if we play our best players even if they are young and make mistakes.

Getting younger in a good way to me would be Hellebuyck instead of Pavelec, Connor instead of Peluso or Thorburn. Nic Petan I hope will get a good look on the 1st 3 lines with talent to see how he performs. I can see him on the point for the power play. The one knock I see from last year was that he was a -18 with the Moose good for 4th having played 20 fewer games than everyone else above him. Maybe it was skewed as he was a +2 with the Jets. I don't see anyone else really cracking the line up next year replacing someone who played consistently last year. I don't believe any of our defensemen are ready for promotion, Lemieux, Kosmachuk are atleast 1 more year away.

I have a question, what is the knock on Melchiori and Kichton's game? Is one overly offensive and the other overly defensive with poor attributes on the other side?

 

[Hunter368]

I was simply stating that the final record of the Winnipeg Jets 2015/16 edition isn't (IMO) reflective of who they are VS the team 5 years ago. They're better, and you disagree.....duly noted.

You choose to stand by the stats (points/league ranking etc.), and that's fine. They do tell a story, but just one part of it. However if executives started tearing down a set course of action every time there is disappointments/setbacks, the franchise would be spinning it's wheels and bleeding money in a hurry. Not your money or mine, mind you.

I surmise you don't like Cheveldayoff's slow, methodical approach, I get that. I think Mark Chipman does.

If it's any consolation, I don't think Kevin Cheveldayoff will be the only GM of the Jets 2.0.

FYI - I never stated the team wasn't better then 2011, of course it is I've stated that many times. I stated let's not blamed loses or a poor result on our division or any other reason.....that's just making excuses.....losers do that. NHL doesn't give all central teams a bonus 20 points to start the season for being in the central so let's not use that as any excuse for losing.

I've never stated Chevy should be fired, not once. It's perfectly exceptable to criticize someone and not want them fired. I've stated for multi years the grade I give Chevy varied from C- to B- (currently a C). Just b/c I question or criticize some of his moves doesn't mean I hate him or want him fired.....the world isn't so black & white.

Wait.....the only GM in Jets 2.0 history.....forever? Besides being impossible (unless Chevy is a vampire or found the fountain of youth) you think Chevy will never be fired? Hmmmmm ok there we disagree, everyone in sports eventually gets fired or contract not renewed which is a polite firing.

 

[Hunter368]

Should be careful about heaping praise on Chevy for basically taking advantage of mistakes. Benning was an absolute fool to take Virtanen over Ehlers (it was Benning right?). And words can't describe how foolish Boston was to skip Connor. The Schiefele pick, going off the board and hitting a homerun (it's a homerun in my eyes), was brilliant. Hellebuyck in late rounds, awesome.

Not all of these prospects are going to be roster players for the Jets. There just isn't enough roster room if they all hit their ceilings. With the more marginal players, your Petan's, Armia's, Dano's, the real question will be what kind of trade can he make to put the team into contender status. Petan and a 1st for a young LHD for example.

Correct. Multi of our high profile prospects/picks have fallen to us.....this is a mistake (at times) by other GM's not a good move by Chevy who just proceeded to pick the remaining BPA. Chevy had nothing to do with Mark S selection, I give him zero credit for that pick.

 

[Scheifele55]

Sorry but if Chevy gets blamed for everything you don't like he gets to keep the credit for what he has done. If the the pick failed you wouldn't hesitate a second to point at Chevy and yell Fail!

Chevy did fail with Lukas Sutter but it's not like someone drafted immediately after him or in that round for that matter have made a huge impact.

 

[Hobby Bull]

Frankly, the Winnipeg Jets (version 1 or 2) have not had any meaningful NHL playoff success, and I am not interested in this franchise being a bubble playoff team. I want them to build a strong foundation via draft and develop so that we can eventually have a young, skilled corp to drive this team for years to come.

Before we had this young core, you can question why the Jets didn't do this or that (sign Stepniak, sign a superstar UFA starter goalie) to grab one or two more playoff appearances. To me, it seems stupid to do so. If you're not building your team for long-term and meaningful success, I'd rather not do things for short-term mediocrity.

Should the Jets have been torn down years before? Maybe. We'd bring in more draft picks, and higher ones as well, but they'd be inserted into a culture of losing (Edmonton Oilers?). I'm not sure if that approach is better, but I am fine with how the Jets approached it.

So, where are we know? Our draft and develop approach is starting to bear fruit, and we're getting some consistent hits. We have more on the way that can also be big hits. It is exciting to me as we have a chance to finally have that young, skilled core to drive this team to success that has eluded this city for decades.

Should it have been 6-7 years versus 5? Whatever. At this point, we are near the tail end of it to see if we get the big pay off.

It's occurred to me recently that player assessment is a huge part of the draft and develop model. As the numbers of prospects grows, you have to be willing to look at a guy, and ask if they'll ever help you to progress toward being a cup contender.

This is an important ability, and one the Jets will have to cultivate.

Just because he's "our guy" doesn't always mean we're loyal beyond any rational limit. Sometimes, guys will be moved or just dropped, even in the light of earlier optimism.