Player Discussion: Centre depth not pulling their weight?

[10Ducky10]

The centers aren't pulling their weight?
What about the wingers?

Wheeler, Laine, Ehers, even Roslo and Lemmy to a lesser extent. Are they pulling their weight?

 

[Tommigun]

The centers aren't pulling their weight?
What about the wingers?

Wheeler, Laine, Ehers, even Roslo and Lemmy to a lesser extent. Are they pulling their weight?

The only ones performing on 5-vs-5 are half of the defenders and the backup goalie.

 

[JetsFan815]

Points, goals for and goals against aside. Or in other words: results aside, Little has been good and better than expected.

Some of it can be addressed by bad luck, but let's see what happens when sample size gets bigger.

Corsi, xGoals etc. are not telling nearly all of the truth. They hold value, but if they contradict completely with real results even after large sample size (eg. half a season or more), it's not luck but something other.

Results are achieved in many different ways. When many other Jets forwards are getting their heads caved in at 5 on 5, I welcome Little's promising results even if at the moment they may not be leading to points on the board, even points-wise the only thing that is really lagging for him are secondary assists which he has exactly 0.

 

[Halberdier]

Results are achieved in many different ways. When many other Jets forwards are getting their heads caved in at 5 on 5, I welcome Little's promising results even if at the moment they may not be leading to points on the board, even points-wise the only thing that is really lagging for him are secondary assists which he has exactly 0.

Results are achieved in many different ways, true, but in the end, results are goals for and goals against. In hockey. Everything else is more or less noise or something that supports goal scoring and preventing opponent to score.

And Little's results are among the worst for the Jets this young season.

His underlying stats are good, but don't mix them with results. Those underlying stats have average statistical correlation with results over time, and that suggests Little might have been just unlucky. Just might. But while Corsi works in average, and xGoals works even better in average, it's about statistical correlation, not causality.

There are several players that consistently break Corsi and xGoals models, for example. But for a line full of Joe Averages with average goal scoring skills, those works pretty well. And Little is Joe Average if anyone in terms of scoring.

I'm positive that Little is having a bounce back season, but more games and more real results have to be been.

 

[grieves]

Results are achieved in many different ways, true, but in the end, results are goals for and goals against. In hockey. Everything else is more or less noise or something that supports goal scoring and preventing opponent to score.

And Little's results are among the worst for the Jets this young season.

His underlying stats are good, but don't mix them with results. Those underlying stats have average statistical correlation with results over time, and that suggests Little might have been just unlucky. Just might. But while Corsi works in average, and xGoals works even better in average, it's about statistical correlation, not causality.

There are several players that consistently break Corsi and xGoals models, for example. But for a line full of Joe Averages with average goal scoring skills, those works pretty well. And Little is Joe Average if anyone in terms of scoring.

I'm positive that Little is having a bounce back season, but more games and more real results have to be been.

Agreed, one of the reasons why his real stats are lagging behind could be below average finishing level. We need to eye-test whether or not we think he is a below average finisher or just unlucky. I don't have an opinion on that but need to keep it in mind. His overall history could also be revealing. Whether or not this is something that happens constantly or just sometimes.

That, and ELL, of course. What a terrible line for any of the guys.

 

[Halberdier]

Agreed, one of the reasons why his real stats are lagging behind could be below average finishing level. We need to eye-test whether or not we think he is a below average finisher or just unlucky. I don't have an opinion on that but need to keep it in mind. His overall history could also be revealing. Whether or not this is something that happens constantly or just sometimes.

That, and ELL, of course. What a terrible line for any of the guys.

Yup, but unless we are talking about ixGf / iCorsi, also scoring skill of linemates matter. Somehow I think Laine is above average Finnisher, but he has exactly 0.00 SH% this season 5-on-5, which also affects real results of Little, who has played roughly half of his 5-on-5 minutes with Laine. Ehlers has not had much better finishing as well.

ELL never found too much chemistry to speak of. They had several games where each of them played well on individual level, but hockey is a team game. Line mate combinations matter. Only some of that is shown by xGF, as some models do not lack only the shot quality (not meaning scoring chance quality), but also all the fine details of scoring chance quality including whether puck has been moved quickly before the shot, which is crucial for quality of scoring chance.

 

[grieves]

Yup, but unless we are talking about ixGf / iCorsi, also scoring skill of linemates matter. Somehow I think Laine is above average Finnisher, but he has exactly 0.00 SH% this season 5-on-5, which also affects real results of Little, who has played roughly half of his 5-on-5 minutes with Laine. Ehlers has not had much better finishing as well.

ELL never found too much chemistry to speak of. They had several games where each of them played well on individual level, but hockey is a team game. Line mate combinations matter. Only some of that is shown by xGF, as some models do not lack only the shot quality (not meaning scoring chance quality), but also all the fine details of scoring chance quality including whether puck has been moved quickly before the shot, which is crucial for quality of scoring chance.

Yeah, very good point. Although the teammates scoring chances are also predicated partly due to the chances Little is able to create for them, so when I said finishing ability for Little, it would have been better to say quality finishing ability for the line that Little plays on. We should track every line he has played for to see if we can find correlation.

I think Corsica's xGoals model takes previous event into consideration if I'm not mistaken. Of course they can never be completely accurate but they are more valid for future expectations than actual on-ice results due to the massive amount of luck in the game.

 

[Howard Chuck]

Scheifele is a legit #1 C.

Little is a very good#3 C, but does not score enough to be a #2 C on a true Stanley Cup contender, imo.

Lowry is a solid #3 C as well, imo.

Copp or Roslovic are usually given less than 7 or 8 mins of ice as a #4 C. I would like to see our #4 C get over 10 mins of ice.

So to me, we have 1-#1C, 2-#3C, and that’s it.

Last year’s playoffs, imo, we had 1-#1C, 1-#2C, 2-#3C. That was great depth and a luxury few teams can duplicate. That depth gave us 4 very solid lines. Ran into a hot goalie with a young, inexperienced group. Good experience for them, but our C depth is considerably weaker, imo.

I agree as usual Bob. Sometimes I think we get enamoured with players either through their tenure with us or by their effort on the ice. Unfortunately unless the results are there in the form of points (either goals or assists), or other required aspects of their game (shutdown ability?) displaying their ability to help their team and linemates, then they aren't what we want them to be.

I'm a very big fan of Little and he is much better so far this year, but I still don't think he's a 2C on a Cup team.

We have at least 4 wingers that could be on the top six of any Cup team, but we don't have the 2C to get the most out of them...... we have a rocket finalist on the 3rd line because that Center is not much different than our 2C, if at all.

 

[GaryPoppins]

Biggest disappointment overall for the season has not been Laine for me, it’s been Scheif. He looked really bad in the Helsinki games, not dangerous at all. I wonder what’s up with him? He may also suffer from the same post-playoff fatigue Laine was hinting about.

I can tell you what is up with him. He's carrying Wheeler. Take Wheeler off that line and you'd see far better production.

 

[Howard Chuck]

I can tell you what is up with him. He's carrying Wheeler. Take Wheeler off that line and you'd see far better production.

I don't know if this is true or not, but it would certainly be a good experiment to try ESL and CLW and keep it for a few games. ....... just to see.

 

[Duke749]

I can tell you what is up with him. He's carrying Wheeler. Take Wheeler off that line and you'd see far better production.

It’s not Wheeler’s fault Scheif has had consistency issues this year and is cheating for offense ignoring his defensive responsibilities at times.

 

[Crocket]

As of 14 games, our centre depth is NOT pulling their weight so far. Really feeling the void that Stastny has left. Little at 3C was perfect, and Jets need to rectify this prior to playoffs. 5 points from a 2C isn't quite good enough, IMO.

I really think we have to try Lowery as our 2c, which is kind of the case if Laine can get going with him. I think Lowery can grow into that roll. But, ya, Stastny is one of the premier 2c's in the league, extremely difficult to replace.

But, one player is William Nylander, he is potentially a great center, although Babcock played him more on the wing, with Bozak there etc. He is more naturally a center, and I like his size and speed. Gifted passer too. Could he be traded for? Almost definitely, they are at an impasse in Toronto. Do we have a high value player that might be difficult to sign? Could Nylander and Laine play well together?

 

[Howard Chuck]

I really think we have to try Lowery as our 2c, which is kind of the case if Laine can get going with him. I think Lowery can grow into that roll. But, ya, Stastny is one of the premier 2c's in the league, extremely difficult to replace.

But, one player is William Nylander, he is potentially a great center, although Babcock played him more on the wing, with Bozak there etc. He is more naturally a center, and I like his size and speed. Gifted passer too. Could he be traded for? Almost definitely, they are at an impasse in Toronto. Do we have a high value player that might be difficult to sign? Could Nylander and Laine play well together?

I don't know who it is, but we have to find a center that meshes with Laine. He is too talented to NOT build a line around, instead of asking him not be the player we drafted. Scheifele is probably that center, but I've all but given up discussing this option.

 

[surixon]

Scheifele is a legit #1 C.

Little is a very good#3 C, but does not score enough to be a #2 C on a true Stanley Cup contender, imo.

Lowry is a solid #3 C as well, imo.

Copp or Roslovic are usually given less than 7 or 8 mins of ice as a #4 C. I would like to see our #4 C get over 10 mins of ice.

So to me, we have 1-#1C, 2-#3C, and that’s it.

Last year’s playoffs, imo, we had 1-#1C, 1-#2C, 2-#3C. That was great depth and a luxury few teams can duplicate. That depth gave us 4 very solid lines. Ran into a hot goalie with a young, inexperienced group. Good experience for them, but our C depth is considerably weaker, imo.

I think people have an inflated idea of what second line centers actually look like around the league. There are only a couple of teams like Pittsburgh, Washington and Toronto where they have two first line centers on their roster. Most other teams make due players in Little's category. He is essentially equiviliant to Turris which is who Nashville has as their 2C.

 

[surixon]

As for pulling their weight it is hard to look good when nobody on the team is finishing at 5 on 5.

Our centers are all doing well from an individual finishing perspective As all except Roslovic are at or above 9% shooting percentage. All except Scheifele and Roslovic are above 50% on the draw and all except Roslovic are above a 50% CF.

I think it's more the lack of finishing by our wingers that is to blame.

 

[Gm0ney]

Jets Centers 5v5 P/60 so far:

Roslovic 1.42 (102) - produced well in his 2 sheltered shifts he gets every game.
Scheifele 1.35 (109) - dragged down by Wheeler who can't seem to accomplish anything 5v5 these days.
Lowry 1.09 (138) - Back to his historical norm (2.14 last year, 1.12 in 2016-17, 1.12 in 2015-16, 1.09 in 2014-15...)
Little 1.04 (139) - Looking better but not setting the world on fire.

 

[GaryPoppins]

I don't know if this is true or not, but it would certainly be a good experiment to try ESL and CLW and keep it for a few games. ....... just to see.

This was prior to Finland, but an Athletic article had this to say about Wheeler:

"For Wheeler, 7 of his 11 points have come on the PP and he's scored just two points at 5v5 this season, a 0.68 PP60. The Jets are only scoring 1.66 GP60 with him on the ice, and while part of that is a low shooting percentage, it's also due to the team not taking many shots with him on the ice. His 53.9 shot attempts for would be the lowest mark of his career and a major factor why the Jets are being out shot with Wheeler on the ice for the first time since 2013-2014. Relative to the team, his minus-3 percent is a major low point and a worrying trench after being in the negatives last season too.

The worst part is it's a trend that belies the whole Jets team: the shots the team gets with Wheeler on the ice aren't scoring chances, either, while the opposite is true for the other team. The team as a 47% corsi while he's on the ice, but scoring chances are much lower than 41% and high danger chances are even worse at 37 percent."

People I know said I was being silly and to look at his point totals, but he's been incredibly poor this year and this is a terrifying trend for a guy that signed over 8M for another 5 years after this. What is unbearable is knowing we're going to lose a solid young player or two because of this future albatross contract.

 

[surixon]

This was prior to Finland, but an Athletic article had this to say about Wheeler:

"For Wheeler, 7 of his 11 points have come on the PP and he's scored just two points at 5v5 this season, a 0.68 PP60. The Jets are only scoring 1.66 GP60 with him on the ice, and while part of that is a low shooting percentage, it's also due to the team not taking many shots with him on the ice. His 53.9 shot attempts for would be the lowest mark of his career and a major factor why the Jets are being out shot with Wheeler on the ice for the first time since 2013-2014. Relative to the team, his minus-3 percent is a major low point and a worrying trench after being in the negatives last season too.

The worst part is it's a trend that belies the whole Jets team: the shots the team gets with Wheeler on the ice aren't scoring chances, either, while the opposite is true for the other team. The team as a 47% corsi while he's on the ice, but scoring chances are much lower than 41% and high danger chances are even worse at 37 percent."

People I know said I was being silly and to look at his point totals, but he's been incredibly poor this year and this is a terrifying trend for a guy that signed over 8M for another 5 years after this. What is unbearable is knowing we're going to lose a solid young player or two because of this future albatross contract.

I was trying to make the argument last year that he wasn't as good as his numbers and that is holding true so far this season as well. He is essentially a Pp specialist right now that isn't pulling his weight in 5 on 5 situations. More over our coach is still riding him at 5 on 5 like he is still an elite player there.

 

[Tommigun]

I really think we have to try Lowery as our 2c, which is kind of the case if Laine can get going with him. I think Lowery can grow into that roll. But, ya, Stastny is one of the premier 2c's in the league, extremely difficult to replace.

But, one player is William Nylander, he is potentially a great center, although Babcock played him more on the wing, with Bozak there etc. He is more naturally a center, and I like his size and speed. Gifted passer too. Could he be traded for? Almost definitely, they are at an impasse in Toronto. Do we have a high value player that might be difficult to sign? Could Nylander and Laine play well together?

He could certainly be traded for but he’s asking for a lot of money, that’s why the Leafs may be trading him. I don’t know how we would be able to afford him when we couldn’t even pay the 6-7M Stastny would have cost.

 

[LowLefty]

I was trying to make the argument last year that he wasn't as good as his numbers and that is holding true so far this season as well. He is essentially a Pp specialist right now that isn't pulling his weight in 5 on 5 situations. More over our coach is still riding him at 5 on 5 like he is still an elite player there.

Based on what we are paying him, he is the Elite winger on this team.
Coach is playing the hand he was dealt.

I'm not saying I like his minutes - just adding why he getting the minutes and it might not be all on the coach.

 

[Crocket]

I don't know who it is, but we have to find a center that meshes with Laine. He is too talented to NOT build a line around, instead of asking him not be the player we drafted. Scheifele is probably that center, but I've all but given up discussing this option.

I agree. Probably have to make a move to find that person

 

[Crocket]

He could certainly be traded for but he’s asking for a lot of money, that’s why the Leafs may be trading him. I don’t know how we would be able to afford him when we couldn’t even pay the 6-7M Stastny would have cost.

I heard it's not just the amount, which is around 5.5 to 6, but the term and the fact he wants to play center. May not like Babcock etc.

 

[Duke749]

I think people have an inflated idea of what second line centers actually look like around the league. There are only a couple of teams like Pittsburgh, Washington and Toronto where they have two first line centers on their roster. Most other teams make due players in Little's category. He is essentially equiviliant to Turris which is who Nashville has as their 2C.

Not to mention you don’t have to have this type of player in this position to win a cup or that type of player here. Only one or two things win you a Cup. Overall depth. And goaltending. But even having depth isn’t a guarantee. You have to have depth scoring in the playoffs. Washington for years has elite teams but never won because a lot of their players disappeared in the playoffs. It’s no coincidence that once they got scoring throughout their line up, they won. Everything else is just noise.

 

[surixon]

Based on what we are paying him, he is the Elite winger on this team.
Coach is playing the hand he was dealt.

I'm not saying I like his minutes - just adding why he getting the minutes and it might not be all on the coach.

Contract value shouldn't factor in that heavily. More over Laine will likely make more then him next season anyhow but Maurice will probably still play him less then Wheeler.

Given how Maurice has treated our expensive dmen (Kuli in the pb) I doubt there is much pressure from management to play players based on contract value. I think Maurice plays Wheeler because that is what he wants to do.

 

[Adam da bomb]

It's wrong to encourage injuries so I won't but I see the only way that the Jets break Schief and Wheeler up is Wheeler injuries himself, Schief gets a chance with the young guns and they become a dominant line. I don't see Mo breaking up Wheeler and Schief otherwise, but, I also don't think Mo will force Wheeler and Schief back together if a much better line emerges. It's the same with that being the only way Niku gets an opportunity.