Do you not see any chance of him signing a longer contract with mtl with less AAV (as wich speculated the case being with carolina) after (or january 2022) his 1 year contract? his potential did not magically dissappear, he still is younger than poehling for example who i think has shown way less.
I'm not in his shoes but it seems unlikely he would offer a friendly deal to either team.
For me, it's the combination of the lack of roots, both markets not being particularly attractive destinations for NHLers, as well as his age and family situation.
He's a young guy, single, no kids in school. The home is what ties a lot of NHLers. But the young guys, they basically live in their suitcases and aren't afraid to move. Hockey-wise, the Canadiens are not in good shape. It's not a top-tier destination. Top paid player is locked for many years and was passed by the Kraken in the expansion draft. Other key player and team captain is near retirement. There's not much to look forward to. I don't know how Kotkaniemi and the people who counsel him see this... but I feel Kotkaniemi could have better opportunities.
Of course, it's not like you 100% pick and choose where you play as a UFA but he'll want to see who is interested. Tax-wise too, there will be better destinations.
As for the Hurricanes... it seems way too soon to me. You don't get married after the first date. He'll want to see how he likes it there... and by the time he begins figuring it out, it will already be free agency. I personally wouldn't do it. The closer you are to that UFA status, the more you want to test the waters.
This is the perfect contract for this guy. How many players drafted 3rd overall get to be UFA at 22? Or he will get a really handsome QO. Kotkaniemi is set, thanks to the Hurricanes. Now, we just have to know who is going to pay the bill! :p