Confirmed Signing with Link: [CAR] Jesperi Kotkaniemi signs offersheet with the Hurricanes (1 year, $6.100035M) [Part III]

[abo9]

Necas will probably be worth 6.5-7.5 after this season. I think he may have a higher ceiling than Svechnikov.

If you want to offer him 13-15m be my guest.

Exactly what I'm saying. People arguing that MB will do the same to Necas to piss off the Hurricanes... it cannot work, because Necas is actually gonna be worth decent money lol. While Kotkaniemi is still young, he has not proven squat.

 

[Jeune Poulet]

If that is his argument then he would admit that picking him at 3 was a complete failure.

Doubt his ego would let that happen.

Picking Kotkaniemi was not a complete failure, but it certainly wasn't a very good move.

With that said, we aren't just throwing him to the garbage can here. All NHL players have a value based on their talent but also a value based on their current contract. For instance, one might feel Lucic is still a decent bottom 6 player but that with his current contract, he has negative value. At 1.4M, Lucic's overall value would be much different than it is right now.

And secondly is the matter of the picks. I know that on HF, picks tend to be overrated but I feel like in this particular case, people are not considering them enough. People are also assuming that this is a guaranteed low pick but it's not. If the divisions are back to normal I see 10 teams that have a legitimate shot at the playoffs in the East, not counting surprise teams.

So it's not letting go of Kotkaniemi for nothing. It's letting go of a now grossly overpaid Kotkaniemi for a 1st and 3rd rounder.

 

[Edgy]

He set a precedent for his own RFAs, he would waste a 1st and 3rd pick on pettiness etc.

Not really. His RFAs have little to no leverage. If they go to arbitration, they can simply use all other RFAs that are similar to KK's production as market value, 1 outlier doesn't set the market value.

Also by offering a $20 signing bonus which just so happens to be Aho's number, plus copy/pasting the Habs press release about the Aho OS and using it in their own press release, everyone and their mother understood the message.

The 1st and 3rd might be a glorified 2nd and 4th depending on how the Canes make out the upcoming season. It's a gamble if KK busts, he'll come out looking like a petty idiot, but if KK develops chemistry and becomes a 40-50 point guy, the compensation paid will be a non-factor.

 

[NoName]

They are, they truly believe that Waddell did not offersheet KK out of oettiness. It's hilarious.

Sure, I bet it was pettiness. But it also served more of a purpose then purely spite. First, it sends a message to other GMs who might consider trying to poach any Canes RFAs in the future that there will be retaliation if they try, so it is better to quit while they are ahead. Secondly, while it is obviously an overpay, I do think that Carolina thinks he is under-utilized in Montreal’s system and they can get a lot more productivity out of him in their organization.

Also, yes… lots of glorious pettiness.

 

[Stickpucker]

Legit starter....buwahahahahahahahaha

That's a good one.

we found dr. evil's burner!

 

[abo9]

You really can’t see the different between committing 63 mil to a guy who won’t be worth his contract in the later years vs taking a one year gamble on a 21 year old former third overall pick?

Do you think letting Hamilton go was done in order to have money to OS Kotkaniemi?

I think they let Hamilton go because they needed that money to sign other good young players in the org... I'm sure the KK OS is more of a "happy accident" than anything else (hey! We got 6M doing nothing this year... we like this kid, and we could potentially poach him AND piss off the Habs by overpaying him.... )

They obviously like him enough to give a 1st and a 3rd

 

[samsagat]

Necas has no problem with Carolina unlike Kotkaniemi with Montreal.

He won't listen to other teams like 99.9999% of players who are loyal to their team.

Unless Mtl offers him like 12 mil for one year...

 

[Stickpucker]

Unless Mtl offers him like 12 mil for one year...

Carolina doesn't match takes 4 1sts and then Mtl has to QO him at 12m in 2023.

Mtl is most likely a lottery team and Carolina gets 4 lottery picks and builds a dynasty.

 

[Svechhammer]

Unless Mtl offers him like 12 mil for one year...

Cool, That would likely net us 3 or 4 1st round picks as compensation, all likely being very high because the Habs would f*** their cap and have to let someone like Suzuki or Caulfield walk while still shedding more high dollar contracts just to be able to fit under the cap.

Sounds ok to me

 

[Tryamw]

How did we lose Slavin?

He's a Unicorn and unicorns don't exist and we have now been told that.. so Pfft!.

 

[snowkiddin]

This is why offer sheets are so fun. A fourth liner signing one and we are almost 40 pages deep into our third thread and it’s only been a couple of days. It’s entertaining, wish it happened more.

 

[samsagat]

By all accounts, they DO want to pay for KK. They originally wanted to trade for him, but Bergy was likely asking for Seth Jarvis +. The Canes brass really likes the player and they see the draft compensation price for a successful poach as being way below asset value, low enough to be worth the overpay in cap space.

Yeah, if you don't take into account his contract, it's a good deal.

But in the salary cap era, it's all about yield/$. And at this salary, KK doesn't offer a good yield/$, so it's no good value...

At this price, if he doesn't progress like he haven't in 3 years, he doesn't bring you a 1st and a 3rd...

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Carolina is expecting and praying that the Habs match, they don't want to actually pay him. I mean come on, they let Hamilton walk to save pennies for some revenge shit? That would be the dumbest thing I have ever seen happen in the NHL, ever.

I walk away too, and I really like Kotkaniemi. Hard to pass up a 1st and 3rd though. With 2 1sts in the draft next year they can actually trade one now (they wouldn't before since the draft is in Montreal).

It's time to let this narrative go. I know that Bergevin implicitly sold it with the Aho offer sheet, but we see how that has worked out for the Habs.

Dundon has committed to spending to the cap for the 3rd year in a row with this move. You can question how the organization he runs values players if you want, but the financial commitment is there. It's undeniable.

 

[Runner77]

Holy shit, did you sign an offer sheet with the mainboard? If so, are you overpaid like Kotkaniemi?

I’m woefully underpaid. And so are you.

Great community you have on your forum. However, this site offers several viable options, so why not.

 

[Essenege]

In principle there's nothing wrong with offer sheets. In fact, it's a bit of a problem that GMs/owners have this gentlemen's agreement not to use them. That's what allows them to lowball RFAs, so that mid-level young players can't get a big payday. That in turn is why we see teams blow up their rosters to try and cram as many ELCs and RFAs as possible under the cap. If there were more offer sheets, the league would probably be a little better-balanced and young players would definitely have a lot more leverage to get paid what they have earned.

With Aho specifically, I don't think Canes fans at any problem at all with the AAV. The issues were:

1) Losing a year of term, which means in a few years we have to pay a higher premium for another year of his prime
2) The financial structure which was specifically meant to hurt our franchise financially

Fortunately Dundon was capable of covering the signing bonus, but even so... this led into the pandemic season and a bunch of people being laid off. Maybe that looks a little different if Dundon still has that cash in hand (but probably not, to be brutally honest). In any case, it's a bit like when Philly gave Weber a contract that was specifically meant to destabilize the Predators, just a few years after they nearly relocated. That's a shot below the belt from a fan perspective, threatening the stability of the actual franchise itself. That, more than the actual contract, is what pissed off Dundon and the fanbase.

Weber was a massive overpayment though if you consider the full term! Even the cap hit was high.

I agree that RFAs are underpaid compared to UFA that are overpaid. A wide use of this kind of strategy to “buy” RFAs would end up redistributing salaries toward younger guys. It’s not bad per see.

But the gentleman agreement does exist and from Bergevin’s perspective, it feels like it’s not “even” because Aho is paid his fair market value cap wise while he has to pay double what he should have for KK.

 

[tarheelhockey]

The Lightning just point to that the recovery window for surgery that allowed them to put him on LTIR Kucherov is almost always 5 months. What, you think they just got a doctor to lie for them? And pursuant to section 50.10(d) the NHL and NHLPA could just appoint a neutral physician to review the team doctor's findings anyways. Its clearly a loophole.

We're also not talking about tampering here.

There is no loophole that allows for cap circumvention. It is a violation in and of itself.

The "loophole" is simply the fact that the circumvention can't be definitively proven. A doctor doesn't need to lie to anyone, because the team doctor does not report recovery information to the league, and does not order players back to action. Again, unless you think that Kucherov went from being physically unable to play on May 10th to being a fully healthy superstar-level contributor on May 16th, then the circumvention is obvious and in and of itself is a CBA violation.

But there's only one person who can call it a violation and issue a punishment -- Gary Bettman. Do you think Bettman is going to drop the hammer on the Stanley Cup champion, officially asterisking that Cup forever, on a vague assumption of "something shady happened here" without any kind of concrete proof? No he is not. There's nothing but downside for him and the NHL in that scenario. The same issue applies to tampering allegations. Unless there is absolute undeniable proof, there's no incentive for the commissioner to stick his neck out like that. So it gets swept under the rug, every single time, unless a GM literally stands at a podium and says "I'm targeting X Player" like an idiot (which does still occasionally happen).

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

Montreal will take the picks…. As the draft is In Montreal and 6.1 mill is a poison pill contract…. That has on going ramifications as he must be qualified at that # for his remaining 3 seasons of RFA eligibility after this season.

Montreal us going to suck this year anyway!

After going o. Their improbable playoff run this year…… they are not even going to make the playoffs this year!

They will be sellers at the deadline!

 

[AD Skinner]

Fortunately Dundon was capable of covering the signing bonus, but even so... this led into the pandemic season and a bunch of people being laid off. Maybe that looks a little different if Dundon still has that cash in hand (but probably not, to be brutally honest). In any case, it's a bit like when Philly gave Weber a contract that was specifically meant to destabilize the Predators, just a few years after they nearly relocated. That's a shot below the belt from a fan perspective, threatening the stability of the actual franchise itself. That, more than the actual contract, is what pissed off Dundon and the fanbase.

Dear God. If this means the habs are indirectly responsible for losing John Forslund they just became a team I will love to hate forever.

 

[waffledave]

Well, signing at a more reasonable price for a longer term after an ok, not great season from him, yeah I think that could happen.

But the deal being made 4 months before? Even before KK's being officially a Cane member? Mmmm, don't think so...

There might have been some preliminary, exploratory talks, under the table, but nothing nowhere near a final and immutable hand shake. As it would make no sense for neither parties.

Everybody will wait and see what'll happen before doing so.

His agent would never agree to anything more than "we will listen to what you have to offer."

 

[Runner77]

seems unlikely after the recent playoffs success but continue on

Maybe. Maybe not. He had a great playoff run but those were the Covid divisions.

Using your qualifier, it’s unlikely his team would have made the playoffs in a normal season. But please, carry on.

 

[waffledave]

You really can’t see the different between committing 63 mil to a guy who won’t be worth his contract in the later years vs taking a one year gamble on a 21 year old former third overall pick?

In the latter scenario you are also giving up a 1st and a 3rd. I don't even think he was worth that in a trade.

 

[Captain Mountain]

There is no loophole that allows for cap circumvention. It is a violation in and of itself.

The "loophole" is simply the fact that the circumvention can't be definitively proven. A doctor doesn't need to lie to anyone, because the team doctor does not report recovery information to the league, and does not order players back to action. Again, unless you think that Kucherov went from being physically unable to play on May 10th to being a fully healthy superstar-level contributor on May 16th, then the circumvention is obvious and in and of itself is a CBA violation.

But there's only one person who can call it a violation and issue a punishment -- Gary Bettman. Do you think Bettman is going to drop the hammer on the Stanley Cup champion, officially asterisking that Cup forever, on a vague assumption of "something shady happened here" without any kind of concrete proof? No he is not. There's nothing but downside for him and the NHL in that scenario. The same issue applies to tampering allegations. Unless there is absolute undeniable proof, there's no incentive for the commissioner to stick his neck out like that. So it gets swept under the rug, every single time, unless a GM literally stands at a podium and says "I'm targeting X Player" like an idiot (which does still occasionally happen).

You are entirely missing the point. The loophole is that the cap doesn't count in the playoffs and players that are on LTIR at the end of the season are eligible to play in the playoffs. Both a plain text reading and general precedent show that it is not circumvention nor has it been interpreted as circumvention.

 

[TheGroceryStick]

Assuming if Montreal loses KK they have a statement - and I'd say the odds are they keep it low key, but with a "it's part of the game, we have no interest in making rash decisions based on emotion." tone.

 

[waffledave]

It's time to let this narrative go. I know that Bergevin implicitly sold it with the Aho offer sheet, but we see how that has worked out for the Habs.

Dundon has committed to spending to the cap for the 3rd year in a row with this move. You can question how the organization he runs values players if you want, but the financial commitment is there. It's undeniable.

So you're saying that Carolina does actually want to give away a 1st and a 3rd and pay $6m for KK when they weren't willing to pay an extra mil to Dougie Hamilton? Like I said man, if Carolina actually wants this OS to go through it is a dumb as f*** move. Sorry.

 

[waffledave]

I'm dead serious. The Canes are building a club with players well underneath their prime years instead of locking themselves into contracts that could potentially be albatrosses in five years. As much I love Dougie Hamilton and still love Dougie Hamilton, giving a 7x9M to any 28 year old player is massively risky. This Kotkaniemi offer sheet is just part of their plan, on top of going high AAV with Svechnikov in order to get 8 years.

Yeah man hook me up with some of that premium southern US hopeium you're smoking.