Speculation: Caps General Discussion (Coaching/FAs/Cap/Lines etc) -- 2018-19 We Are The Champions Edition - Pt. 1

[CapitalsCupReality]

You always look to get better. Always. I'd be chatting with Ottawa a lot.

I agree with this mindset, but that's carving out a few good players from your winning lineup to make that deal. History shows they don't often mess with the apple cart too much.

 

[artilector]

If a top player is available on a discount, it's always something to consider. But I don't see a trade framework that really works for the Caps here.

Can't really trade Carlson for EK because NTC & you just signed him.
Can't really trade Niskanen for EK because NTC & then you'd be in cap hell next year.
Can't really trade Orlov because cap hell & awkward D pairs.
Can't see Ottawa taking on a contract like Oshie's, and can't see the Caps being quite that cold-blooded.

Too awkward -- Ottawa should be able to find much more compatible trading partners.

 

[Carlzner]

Love the fit in Colorado and think they have the most attractive piece in Ottawa's 2019 1st.

 

[um]

If a top player is available on a discount, it's always something to consider. But I don't see a trade framework that really works for the Caps here.

Can't really trade Carlson for EK because NTC & you just signed him.
Can't really trade Niskanen for EK because NTC & then you'd be in cap hell next year.
Can't really trade Orlov because cap hell & awkward D pairs.
Can't see Ottawa taking on a contract like Oshie's, and can't see the Caps being quite that cold-blooded.

Too awkward -- Ottawa should be able to find much more compatible trading partners.

Niskanen was likely going to moved out to keep Holtby and Backstrom, but he won't be traded to Ottawa because of NTC. That's still an option to another team in 1-2 years if you trade Burakovsky or Orlov instead of him.

And we've been speculating Oshie to Seattle for awhile now. That's very doable to another team as well.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

How is Erik Karlsson an unknown quantity, have you not been watching hockey the past 8 years?

The 2nd part is BS, this was an elite team just like 2009, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2017, (I'd say 2018 is our 2nd best and most well rounded team) with breakout performances from Carlson, Kuznetsov, Kempny, Wilson and a bunch of new guys who weren't in the league before. Just because people didn't expect those type of performances doesn't mean it was luck. The 2018 Capitals were a juggernaut team with the 2nd best Center depth in the league, fantastic winger and defensive depth, 3 top pairing defensemen, and an elite goalie. It was no ****ing cinderella run.

Unknown quantity in that how he fits into this team is unknown, whereas we already know what Orlov is, how to use him, where to place him. It's also incredibly short sighted, we want to packaged Orlov who has a 6 X 5 contract that looks more and more like a bargain, for Karlsson who will require an 8 x 9-10 year deal? The cap hell we'll be in will be fast coming. We would be tying up 16 years and 1/4 of our cap in two defenders.


But even with the contract aside I simply don't think EK fits what we've grown here, All-star teams don't work in hockey. You can pump your lineup full of top 6 players and top 4 d-men all day, but what you will end up missing is guys like Orpik who will grind out that physical game and PK. If we hadn't just ridden this roster to a cup I'd say sure, why not try it. But I just saw this team finally figure out their identity, why f*** would you blow any of that up? The reason Carlson, Kuzy, Wilson, etc. were so successful this season was not because they suddenly realized, "Oh shit, I'm really good at hockey" it's because their roles on the team became clearly defined to them. GMBM is calculating with his moves, you can see he's only added players with clear vision for their role. Adding a guy because he's the best player on the market muddies the water for your entire roster. Listen to the interviews for guys like Schmidt after his last season, what does he credit for all of his success? Knowing his role on the team. As a defender nothing is more important than understanding that your a the _______ guy. EK comes in as an established guy, we would have to build around him. Young talent allows you to mold them into what you already had.

Also this "2018 Capitals were a juggernaut" business is straight revisionist history. This team was picked to be a 3 seed in the Metro at best. They were routinely roasted by this board throughout this season for their statistical short comings. When they were down 0-2 to CBJ no one seemed the least bit shocked. We twice almost fired our coach this season. To include them in the same breath as the Presidents Trophy teams that were so good that they actually got bored of playing hockey in the later months, that's silly.

 

[um]

Also this "2018 Capitals were a juggernaut" business is straight revisionist history. This team was picked to be a 3 seed in the Metro at best. They were routinely roasted by this board throughout this season for their statistical short comings. When they were down 0-2 to CBJ no one seemed the least bit shocked. We twice almost fired our coach this season. To include them in the same breath as the Presidents Trophy teams that were so good that they actually got bored of playing hockey in the later months, that's silly.

So teams can only be juggernauts if most people predict them to be. That's damn stupid.

It's up to the teams to prove they're juggernauts, not hockey "experts". No this team didn't look like the 2002 Red Wings on paper (let's judge teams on paper... brilliant!). But watching them win 4 straight against Columbus, beat back to back champs in Pittsburgh, the favourites in Tampa (who slapped around the Bruins) and than finally proceed to make Vegas look silly proved very clearly that this was a juggernaut of a team... the quality of the team is determined on the ice, nowhere else.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Would you care about cap hell if it meant a 3peat? I wouldn’t mind a few down years.

If the roster player cost for EK is Bura + Orlov....the Caps really say no?

 

[um]

Would you care about cap hell if it meant a 3peat? I wouldn’t mind a few down years.

If the roster player cost for EK is Bura + Orlov....the Caps really say no?

that would actually give us a little more room to add someone this year. I'd say yes after thinking about it.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Which makes him a bad coach, IMO. It’s odd really since he’s clearly a strong development coach, but he got to the bigs and couldn’t figure out what to do with players who had offensive skill

I was a Hunter supporter. I always felt he came in, saw what they were doing re: fundamentals, and just saw “this team is screwed”.

So he just neutered it all to try and get their (Ovechkin,s) attention. I mean, it worked to some extent. Upset the 2seed and took the 1seed to 7 tough, hard games.

Plus he only had what....30 or so games to coach them before the playoffs? I’d like to think (no real proof either way save his history in London) that he would have really gotten into some deeper stuff had he been back for the next season. Training camp etc.

But....Oates.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Dale Hunter was definitely a bad NHL coach. He succeeds in the OHL largely because of how well the London Knights are ran as a franchsie in general (and both he and his brother should get plenty of credit as OHL executives for that). But in the NHL he was outclassed both tactically and in terms of managing the team/locker room. I remember there being a few quotes floating around about how he basically never talked to the players outside of practice. I think it was Erskine who said he hadn't talked to Hunter in over a month during a stretch in which Erskine was being scratched. Tactically, he ran about as whitebread of a strategy as was possible. Nothing but box + 1 in the defensive zone and 1-2-2 neutral zone traps. Almost no variation in forchecks based on opponent. Almost no variation in schemes to get particular lines into a rhythm or to maximize the skillsets of his players. Box+1 and 1-2-2 are fine as hockey fundamentals, and every team should know how to play them. But that's also the issue, they're basic fundamental and just about every team and every coach knows how to counteract them. You need more wrinkles and adjustments at the NHL level to stay ahead of your competition.

See above.

I agree with you completely around his communications skills. I think in his “time” as a player that tact was fine and all.... but not today’s NHL (or 2012). He would have needed to improve there, a lot.

But I don’t think we can judge him from a tactician standpoint. I think the team that he inherited was a total mess....in so many ways.

All that said, if you really think Hunter was a terrible coach.....good lord what does that say about George and his ability to bring in coaches.

Cassidy, Hanlon, Oates were all AWFUL at their jobs in DC. If you add Hunter to that....then it’s 4 of his 5 hired coaches? Can’t count Wilson. He inherited him. 3 of those 4 haven’t coached in NHL for anyone other than the Caps.

 

[895]

I thought it was a widely accepted fact that Mcphee didn't have any control of coaches. Leonsis and Patrick picked Oates, no?

 

[maacoshark]

He is not a 4th liner. His ice time says that he is top 9. He just skates 5 on 5 with the 4th line. He plays 4 on 4 when other higher line players don't. I don't think more than $2m will be required, but we will see.

Yes, there is a salary cap and limitations as a result. Just be sure you are slotting a player in the right category. To call Beagle a 4th liner undervalues him quite a bit

Your argument doesnt hold water. Beagle is a 4th liner. His minutes are up because if penalty killing and defensive zone faceoffs. With the amount we used him on defensive faceoffs you nwoukd think he would be higher than 9th in TOI.

 

[artilector]

Niskanen was likely going to moved out to keep Holtby and Backstrom, but he won't be traded to Ottawa because of NTC. That's still an option to another team in 1-2 years if you trade Burakovsky or Orlov instead of him.

And we've been speculating Oshie to Seattle for awhile now. That's very doable to another team as well.

Would you care about cap hell if it meant a 3peat? I wouldn’t mind a few down years.

If the roster player cost for EK is Bura + Orlov....the Caps really say no?

I don't think EK is worth it if it means trading Orlov for him now, and then trading Niskanen next summer because you have to fit under the cap.

I can see the argument if you consider smth like:
1. Orlov+Bura/etc for EK now
2. Trade Oshie (most likely next summer -- really can't see the Caps going for that much additional turnover now)
3. Starting with next summer, maybe look to trade Niskanen at some point for an ~equivalent LHD to rebalance the pairings.

Still, this doesn't really strike me as being worth it.

Caps already have a SC proven top pair in Orlov+Niskanen, on great contracts. For the same price, is it really better to have EK + young unproven player/cheap vet? Especially when you take into account the big disruption and maybe also EK's ankle? (Assets, too, although perhaps that's fine if you lose Bura+ and then get back a decent player for Niskanen in a year).

I could maybe see it if EK would be a huge PP upgrade. But with Carlson there, that's not an issue.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Id do what it takes to win at least one more. Not sure if EK is what it would take, but it couldn’t hurt. I think you have to consider any move that makes you better as a team. High cost...high ceiling player. Do I think they do it, no.

 

[um]

I don't think EK is worth it if it means trading Orlov for him now, and then trading Niskanen next summer because you have to fit under the cap.

I can see the argument if you consider smth like:
1. Orlov+Bura/etc for EK now
2. Trade Oshie (most likely next summer -- really can't see the Caps going for that much additional turnover now)
3. Starting with next summer, maybe look to trade Niskanen at some point for an ~equivalent LHD to rebalance the pairings.

Still, this doesn't really strike me as being worth it.

Caps already have a SC proven top pair in Orlov+Niskanen, on great contracts. For the same price, is it really better to have EK + young unproven player/cheap vet? Especially when you take into account the big disruption and maybe also EK's ankle? (Assets, too, although perhaps that's fine if you lose Bura+ and then get back a decent player for Niskanen in a year).

I could maybe see it if EK would be a huge PP upgrade. But with Carlson there, that's not an issue.

Niskanen probably has 2-3 years left on the top pair while Karlsson has around 8. It is a long term investment as I don't think any of our prospects will rise to become very good top pairing players. It is also one that makes us better immediately. It's us taking advantage of Ottawa's shitty situation.

If we had to trade Orlov (I'd prefer Burakovsky + something else obviously) I'd see the pairings as:

2018-19 to 2019-20

Niskanen-Karlsson (Niskanen played LD in the past, I'm sure he can handle it)
Kempny-Carlson
Djoos-Bowey/Johansen/FA (extra room in 18-19 if Burakovsky+Orlov)

2020-21 (move Niskanen + maybe Eller/Oshie to resign Holtby+Backstrom)
Djoos/Johansen-Karlsson
Kempny-Carlson
Sergechev/Sieg/Hobbs/Bowey/who knows

To me the bigger risk is the lack of offensive depth to replace Burakovsky. We have many options to replace Orlov looking forward.

In conclusion, I trust Caps scouting, that's how they won the Cup this year and I think we'll have more young guys ready in 2-3 years when holes are created by older players leaving/traded.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

Id do what it takes to win at least one more. Not sure if EK is what it would take, but it couldn’t hurt. I think you have to consider any move that makes you better as a team. High cost...high ceiling player. Do I think they do it, no.

It could though, I mean that's the whole discussion, what you give up to get that guy here will substantially hurt.

Also I can't believe people are still operating with the "window" concept. I'd be more confident in keeping the best overall team we can have for the foreseeable future as opposed to mortgaging that future for the idea of a window. We have seen this roster win, why toss them to the side because of an upgrade that I'm not sure is actually a net gain.

We're talking about cutting loose two top 4 defensemen that average 23 and 22 minutes of ice time a night for one guy that average 26 minutes. That's where I see the problem in all of this. The idea that this move would make the team better operates with this idea that this is like basketball where you can just keep cycling your best players out there. I know this seems homerific, but to me cutting loose a top 4 stay at home defender and a young puck moving d-man with a great contract, to bring in a guy who we basically have the Lite version of in Carlson is a net loss. Best players doesn't equal best team, I think the more you maximize your existing talent, limit redundancies in play style, and stretch the most out of your favorable contracts the better the team.

 

[Skrudland2Lomakin]

So teams can only be juggernauts if most people predict them to be. That's damn stupid.

It's up to the teams to prove they're juggernauts, not hockey "experts". No this team didn't look like the 2002 Red Wings on paper (let's judge teams on paper... brilliant!). But watching them win 4 straight against Columbus, beat back to back champs in Pittsburgh, the favourites in Tampa (who slapped around the Bruins) and than finally proceed to make Vegas look silly proved very clearly that this was a juggernaut of a team... the quality of the team is determined on the ice, nowhere else.

Is that not what you're trying to do? Build the best team on paper? Acquiring EK because he's the best d-man is exactly that, it's ignoring all chemistry, contractual, and stylistic clashes and playing EA NHL 18 GM with the team. I have yet to see a valid reason why we should make a play for EK with our existing roster beyond that he's available and good.


Also statistically the 2018 Capitals were not juggernauts, winning the cup has nothing to do with that title. Cool, we beat a bunch of a really great teams, that's the point of the playoffs. Were we league leaders in any categories? Were we ever dominant outside of May-June? At any point during the regular season did anyone realistically believe we'd win the cup? How can you argue we were a juggernaut then? The Blue Jackets friggin' threw their last game so they could play us in the playoffs. Again, the previous 10 years should provide all the evidence you need that the SC Playoffs is a strange beast devoid of sense and logic. The "best" team seldom wins, using our playoff run to justify the idea of that title is absurd. Statistically the Caps have iced at least 4-5 other teams that would have skated circles around this team in the regular season, what this team had that mattered was identity, adjustments, and grit, that's why we won.

 

[peterthegreat12]

They aren’t acquiring EK. Not gonna happen.

 

[PB12]

They aren’t acquiring EK. Not gonna happen.

We wern't going to win the cup this year either....Oh wait sec!

 

[RandyHolt]

I have seen many people say "didn't you see Karlsson in the playoffs that one year?"

Maybe that was the only time he was at full health, for all we know. Or that was just him not playing within a structured system.

I would rather see multiple regular seasons of that sort of playoff head turning grade play before entertaining shaking up our cup winning roster to pay out the ass for one guy.

 

[peterthegreat12]

We wern't going to win the cup this year either....Oh wait sec!

It isn’t that. I just don’t see them wanting to break the team apart to make this move.

 

[Langway]

It's fun to bat around the idea of Karlsson but until there are more reports indicating recent interest from the Caps since the trade deadline it's extremely unlikely. As-is I've got to believe it's all about locking Wilson and then supplementing the rest of the roster with whatever is left over.

 

[strungout]

It's fun to bat around the idea of Karlsson but until there are more reports indicating recent interest from the Caps since the trade deadline it's extremely unlikely. As-is I've got to believe it's all about locking Wilson and then supplementing the rest of the roster with whatever is left over.

Which is exactly what the plan should be.

 

[SherVaughn30]

If it ain't broke, then don't fix it. Caps won the Cup. A little retooling has been done, but going after Karlsson wouldn't be necessary. It would be like trying to upgrade a part of your house making other parts of the house not look so great anymore.

 

[Silky mitts]

Caps have too many guys playing for a discount to bring in someone and pay them more than 90 cents on the dollar.