Rumor: Canadiens interested in offer sheeting Laine

[Legend123]

We're not giving up those teams' draft picks, we're giving up our own...not sure why those teams are in any way relevant lol

We're clearly better at drafting. Those teams should definitely give up their picks until they reach our elite drafting level thanks to Timmin.

before those picks:
2015 = Juulsen
2014 = Scherback
2013 = MacCarron
2012 = Galchenyuk
2011 = Beaulieu
2010 = Tinordi
2009 = Leblanc
2008 = N/A
I would literally give up all those picks for either Laine or Marner. In fact, I would give up all of them for any RFA out there (the main ones ofc).

It's only in 2007 that things were good. We drafted McDanough with our pick I believe.

 

[Keeptdos]

We're not giving up those teams' draft picks, we're giving up our own...not sure why those teams are in any way relevant lol

We're clearly better at drafting. Those teams should definitely give up their picks until they reach our elite drafting level thanks to Timmin.

The difference is that if you don't expect to suck enough to draft top10 it might be worth it to get guaranteed star? That said most of those teams probably have traded their pick at trade deadline to compete now.

 

[ottawa]

before those picks:
2015 = Juulsen
2014 = Scherback
2013 = MacCarron
2012 = Galchenyuk
2011 = Beaulieu
2010 = Tinordi
2009 = Leblanc
2008 = N/A
I would literally give up all those picks for either Laine or Marner. In fact, I would give up all of them for any RFA out there (the main ones ofc).

It's only in 2007 that things were good. We drafted McDanough with our pick I believe.

It's almost like improvement is impossible...

Timmins has been nothing short of great the past few years. No reason to believe the next few years will be bad.

 

[Legend123]

It's almost like improvement is impossible...

Timmins has been nothing short of great the past few years. No reason to believe the next few years will be bad.

it's still too early on KK, Poehling, and Caufield...

 

[BenchBrawl]

It's almost like improvement is impossible...

Timmins has been nothing short of great the past few years. No reason to believe the next few years will be bad.

OTOH, it was kinda hard to screw up Kotkaniemi and Caufield.

Caufield was obvious, and Kotkaniemi was the right pick to make because we absolutely needed to use that 3rd overall to draft a potential #1 C.

Poehling looks like a great pick right now.

 

[Mackiaveli]

We're not giving up those teams' draft picks, we're giving up our own...not sure why those teams are in any way relevant lol

We're clearly better at drafting. Those teams should definitely give up their picks until they reach our elite drafting level thanks to Timmin.

We're clearly better at drafting? What about our other first round picks? Galchenyuk is good, McCarron, Tinordi, Scherbak, Beaulieu, LeBlanc ... yeah okay man lol.

 

[Mackiaveli]

OTOH, it was kinda hard to screw up Kotkaniemi and Caufield.

Caufield was obvious, and Kotkaniemi was the right pick to make because we absolutely needed to use that 3rd overall to draft a potential #1 C.

Poehling looks like a great pick right now.

We haven't seen Caufield play a single NHL game lets not jump on this wagon too soon, even if the kid is looking like a great prospect.

Kotkaniemi was a good pick, but the alternative was Tkachuk who also would have been a great pick.

 

[simon IC]

Don't do it, Montreal! He is a floater. The Finnish Phil Kessel. I mean, if you want that, (shrug) all power to you. I just don't think he is worth the picks.

 

[ottawa]

We're clearly better at drafting? What about our other first round picks? Galchenyuk is good, McCarron, Tinordi, Scherbak, Beaulieu, LeBlanc ... yeah okay man lol.

As I mentioned, that was in the past...clearly Timmins has greatly improved. I'd rather look at what he did in the past 4 years rather than what he did 5-10 years ago.

He's trending the right way, I can't imagine the talent we'll draft in the next 4 years.

 

[pepperMonkey]

before those picks:
2015 = Juulsen
2014 = Scherback
2013 = MacCarron
2012 = Galchenyuk
2011 = Beaulieu
2010 = Tinordi
2009 = Leblanc
2008 = N/A
I would literally give up all those picks for either Laine or Marner. In fact, I would give up all of them for any RFA out there (the main ones ofc).

It's only in 2007 that things were good. We drafted McDanough with our pick I believe.

Well, I think most would trade all those picks for Laine or Marner...
I mean:
26 Juulsen
26 Scherback
25 MacCarron
3 Galchenyuk in a really weak draft (save D's)
17 Beaulieu
22 Tinordi
18 Leblanc
2008

So...26, 26, 25, 3 (in a horrendous draft for forwards), 17, 22, 18, and none in 2008 for a 2nd or 4th? I mean, none of those picks even come within whiffing distance of the top 10 and that one lone 3rd pick in a draft that was a ghost town and tumbleweeds for offensive forwards...
Even without knowing what those picks resulted in, I would take the 2nd and 4th.

So, yeah, I would trade those picks in a heartbeat for a known elite player or two, or a 2nd and 4th. No question.

 

[Dr Beinfest]

Seems like a lot of mistaking the value of 4 1st round picks with Montreal’s inability to draft well in the first round.

Montreal isn’t offering 4 1st round picks for Laine — 4 Montreal 1st round picks could be be good picks in the coming half decade, and Winnipeg can easily turn those in packages to add similar features.

This notion that Montreal will offer sheet anyone above the threshold for a 1st/2nd/3rd is silly (well, maybe Marner isn’t out of the conversation, but that would be dumb, too).

 

[voyageur]

I understand why Montreal would offer sheet him. They really don't have a good PP. Put Domi on the half wall with the dual options of Laine and Weber, with Gallagher being greasy and you have the makings of a good PP, where you can win a lot of key points in the standings. 4 1sts is steep if they cross over 10.5 million, but then the Jets are a cap crunched team. If Laine made $11 million, with the amount the rest of the forwards make, I don't see how you can assemble the supporting cast, other than through strong drafting. And the Jets have weakened themselves by trading prospects and picks to contend the past two year. Give Chevy 2 first round picks for 4 straight years and he could build quite a team with them. On a 5 year deal, if it were termed that way, the Jets would have a hard time contending for all 5 of them. With a myriad of picks the Jets would suddenly have flexibility, and assets to acquire missing pieces, without sacrificing the future, as they have done. This could be an interesting move, involving one of the league's richest markets, and one of its poorest.

 

[jonu]

Don't do it, Montreal! He is a floater. The Finnish Phil Kessel. I mean, if you want that, (shrug) all power to you. I just don't think he is worth the picks.

Seems like you didnt watch him in playoffs, where he was the best Jet on ice and played a quite good 2-way game.

 

[LeapOnOver]

Just wish I had time to go back and find that one guy ridiculing everyone about how they didn't know Bergevin and there was no way he would offer sheet anyone. He's probably edited his comment at this point....but deserves to be mercilessly roasted.

 

[Ukkosenjumala]

Seems like a lot of mistaking the value of 4 1st round picks with Montreal’s inability to draft well in the first round.

Montreal isn’t offering 4 1st round picks for Laine — 4 Montreal 1st round picks could be be good picks in the coming half decade, and Winnipeg can easily turn those in packages to add similar features.

This notion that Montreal will offer sheet anyone above the threshold for a 1st/2nd/3rd is silly (well, maybe Marner isn’t out of the conversation, but that would be dumb, too).

Two 1sts, 2nd and a 3rd really isn't that much. Even if Laine comes in and scores only 60 points with 40 goals but polishes his game back up to where he's active on the defense and isn't such a passenger like he was this year, that's gonna be worth more than two 1st round picks that are likely on the second half of the first round. That's not even counting that Laine might bounce back massively and become the player he was tracking to be on his rookie season and parts of his sophomore season. 10 million AAV but under the cutoff for the max compensation and a 5 year deal, you might get it done without Jets matching.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Time to reload Bergy. Do it again!

 

[Noldo]

If Laine would be signed for five years at 10.5 million, what would need to happen for it to become good contract even on yearly basis?

If Laine would repeat his last season (possible risk although everyone would believe it to be unlikely), he would be vastly overpaid.

If he scores 50+? Wins the Rocket?

Does he need to play better off the puck as well?

Could 10.5 per season ever become great contract where Laine would be underpaid? If he would compete for Art Ross while winning the Rocket?

 

[BLNY]

before those picks:
2015 = Juulsen
2014 = Scherback
2013 = MacCarron
2012 = Galchenyuk
2011 = Beaulieu
2010 = Tinordi
2009 = Leblanc
2008 = N/A
I would literally give up all those picks for either Laine or Marner. In fact, I would give up all of them for any RFA out there (the main ones ofc).

It's only in 2007 that things were good. We drafted McDanough with our pick I believe.

Pacioretty and McDonagh that year. FWIW, I do believe Juulsen will be a good one. Injuries held him back last year just as he was establishing himself.

 

[bobholly39]

it's still too early on KK, Poehling, and Caufield...

Agreed. At one point Tinordi, McCaron and Leblanc looked just as promising....i do think this new crop will be successful, but it is too early to say for sure.

OTOH, it was kinda hard to screw up Kotkaniemi and Caufield.

Caufield was obvious, and Kotkaniemi was the right pick to make because we absolutely needed to use that 3rd overall to draft a potential #1 C.

Poehling looks like a great pick right now.

Caufield was obvious but all those 14 teams passed on him prior. So it's never really obvious
KK was *far* from the obvious pick. Zadina was the concensus #3, they went against the grain to pick him.

Two 1sts, 2nd and a 3rd really isn't that much. Even if Laine comes in and scores only 60 points with 40 goals but polishes his game back up to where he's active on the defense and isn't such a passenger like he was this year, that's gonna be worth more than two 1st round picks that are likely on the second half of the first round. That's not even counting that Laine might bounce back massively and become the player he was tracking to be on his rookie season and parts of his sophomore season. 10 million AAV but under the cutoff for the max compensation and a 5 year deal, you might get it done without Jets matching.

Two firsts for Laine is a joke. I'd do that in a heartbeat. I don't even care if we win the lottery next year i still wouldn't feel bad. It's like playing the odds. Laine is better than 95% of 1st round draft picks - over 2 years that's a 90% chance we won't draft a better player/prospect than him. I'd do that trade in a heartbeat - even if Habs have a horrible year and end up getting he 1st overall pick and losing Lafreniere as a result.

At some point you have to play the odds.

4 firsts? That becomes a lot more difficult. Odds are there'll be at least 1 gem in the 4 - possibly more. Also - simply in terms of trade/asset value - you could arguably get more by trading 4 1sts than you can a player like Laine, so you'd be overpaying. Then there's the fact that to get to 4 1sts - you're also overpaying Laine as you're in the 11M$+ territory. I'd actually still consider doing it (Laine has a really high ceiling) - but i'm a lot more iffy on it.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Caufield was obvious but all those 14 teams passed on him prior. So it's never really obvious
KK was *far* from the obvious pick. Zadina was the concensus #3, they went against the grain to pick him.

KK was the obvious pick for Montreal, who needed a #1 center for the last 20 years.It was even ''in the air'' among conversations that enough was enough, and Bergevin's comment about #1 centers ''not being available'' was thrown left and right to mock him.If they're not available, draft them when you have the 3rd overall pick.KK was the no brainer pick; basically, pick the best tall center most likely to become a #1 foundational type center.

Caufield clearly got passed because of his size, but he's an amazing natural goalscorer jus watching the tapes we have of him.At #15 he was a no-brainer, especially since we didn't have any prospect like him.

 

[bobholly39]

KK was the obvious pick for Montreal, who needed a #1 center for the last 20 years.It was even ''in the air'' among conversations that enough was enough, and Bergevin's comment about #1 centers ''not being available'' was thrown left and right to mock him.If they're not available, draft them when you have the 3rd overall pick.KK was the no brainer pick; basically, pick the best tall center most likely to become a #1 foundational type center.

Caufield clearly got passed because of his size, but he's an amazing natural goalscorer jus watching the tapes we have of him.At #15 he was a no-brainer, especially since we didn't have any prospect like him.

You're practically contradicting yourself. 2 years ago we picked based on positional needs vs best player available (Zadina) and this year we picked Best Player Available (Caufield) instead of positional need (LD which had been rumored).

I like those picks too and they're easy to rationalize now (especially with KK's strong first year and Zadina not really breaking into NHL yet) that they look good.

But my point is - they weren't obvious picks. Especially not KK. That high in the draft, you almost always go for best player available. And consensus league-wide was Zadina more than KK at #3.

 

[BenchBrawl]

You're practically contradicting yourself. 2 years ago we picked based on positional needs vs best player available (Zadina) and this year we picked Best Player Available (Caufield) instead of positional need (LD which had been rumored).

I like those picks too and they're easy to rationalize now (especially with KK's strong first year and Zadina not really breaking into NHL yet) that they look good.

But my point is - they weren't obvious picks. Especially not KK. That high in the draft, you almost always go for best player available. And consensus league-wide was Zadina more than KK at #3.

I'm not contradicting myself because what is the best philosophy in season X is not necessarily the best for season Y.

The #1 center problem in Montreal was so longstanding and profound that it was unacceptable to draft anyone but the best center with #1 potential in 2018 with the 3rd overall pick.Especially since there was a bunch of players more or less in the same tier starting at 3rd overall.If Patrick Kane is there, OK, take him, but this wasn't the case.

I distinctively remember just before the draft just hoping for Bergevin to pick whoever was the best tall center.

Now is different because our prospect pool was much better, we're stacked basically.Caufield was an obvious choice since we lack any strong goalscorer in our system.

Difference of level also, at 3rd overall you had a chance to get your #1 center.At #15, will you get a LHD? Maybe.Who cares? He's not going to be a #1 D most likely.And LHD is not the same problem as lacking a #1 center for 20 years.The 1C was a need at the soul level for this organization.The 2nd round pick, Struble, is a LHD and looks very promising as a project, great skater and physically strong.Just as excited to have him as any LHD taken between #15 and him probably.

 

[NotProkofievian]

If Laine would be signed for five years at 10.5 million, what would need to happen for it to become good contract even on yearly basis?

If Laine would repeat his last season (possible risk although everyone would believe it to be unlikely), he would be vastly overpaid.

If he scores 50+? Wins the Rocket?

Does he need to play better off the puck as well?

Could 10.5 per season ever become great contract where Laine would be underpaid? If he would compete for Art Ross while winning the Rocket?

Overpaid ---> Just another 30 goal scorer, maybe hitting 40 once over the next 5 years (top 20 goalscorer)
At cost ---> At least one rocket, 40 goals being merely ''okay'' in a healthy year (top 10 goalscorer)
Underpaid ---> Odds-on favourite to win the rocket (the top goalscorer in the league)

Were he to become a hab, I wouldn't care if he ever got 30 assists. I would want him to score what two players can for that money.

 

[traffic cone]

Overpaid ---> Just another 30 goal scorer, maybe hitting 40 once over the next 5 years (top 20 goalscorer)
At cost ---> At least one rocket, 40 goals being merely ''okay'' in a healthy year (top 10 goalscorer)
Underpaid ---> Odds-on favourite to win the rocket (the top goalscorer in the league)

Were he to become a hab, I wouldn't care if he ever got 30 assists. I would want him to score what two players can for that money.

Plus for the Habs it wouldn’t even matter THAT much if Laine was paid 1-2M too much. They don’t need to be a cap team just yet. The most important thing here would be to have Laine for five years and then have the ability to re-sign him for eight years after that.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Plus for the Habs it wouldn’t even matter THAT much if Laine was paid 1-2M too much. They don’t need to be a cap team just yet. The most important thing here would be to have Laine for five years and then have the ability to re-sign him for eight years after that.

It's worth the risk and I'm all for it. I don't see what else better there is to do. If we're not able to add a significant scoring resource to our lineup this year, Bergevin needs to seriously look at the elephant in the room: Price and Weber have few years left in the elite of their positions, and our next guys still need a few years before they can join them.