Value of: Can anyone fix the Leafs defense without leaving the team worse than it is?

[Randy Randerson]

You could argue that trades made recently and over the next few months shouldnt be an indicator of player values at all, given that the expansion draft is driving some of these moves.

I'd imagine there are going to be trades made that teams would otherwise not make, and are going to take a hit on value simply because the market will be much smaller. Teams are only going to acquire a player if they can protect him, limiting the number of teams that are effectively 'in' on a player, where if they didnt have to worry about protecting him, the market would be much bigger.

I think ultimately the value in any trade is determined solely by supply and demand, but similar recent trades can provide some indication of there the balance of supply and demand lies too

but I agree that those team-specific factors have an influence too, like in the Hall/Larsson trade, how many teams have the wealth of offense that Edmonton had and the same kind of need for the back end to be shored up. Combine that with a pretty thin market of available top pairing-ish defensemen in an acceptable age bracket, and NJ's huge need for offense with some pretty solid defense prospects/young players and it's a bit of a perfect storm

either way, I'll be very surprised if we see another trade of winger-for-defenseman that's so lopsided

 

[PatrikOverAuston]

the one-time bad trade of a winger for a D doesn't set the precedent for future trades of the same positions until it repeats as a trend.

By "one-time trade" you mean the three permutations of the same trade involving young forwards and even younger D? Hall/Larsson, Johansen/Jones and JvR/Schenn are all equally comparable and as such are representative of the market value young, potential top defensemen hold.

Until another team demonstrates that they are willing to give up a franchise level winger for a 2/3 defenseman, this trade is an outlier, not the new normal

It has been the norm for several seasons now. I'm sorry that that serves as a cold shower for your trade wet dreams, but there it is.

We'll see where the barometer ends up soon, teams' hands will be forced by expansion to make trades involving top 4 dmen, so we'll see which side of this argument is right before the summer is out

So several seasons of comparable trades can be thrown out the window, but a once-every-fifteen-years event like expansion sets the "barometer"? Surely you can see why that's not logical. Instead, whatever trade happens- IF one happens- will be included in the pool of like deals and evaluated that way. It would regardless still not establish as precedent a young high-pedigree D for secondary parts, as is the apparent hope of Leafs fans.

 

[Willy Stylez]

Yeah Alzner is going to at least clear 6m. And his contract is going to start looking bad pretty damn quickly. Career possession numbers are trash and he just doesn't put up points. 19 goals in over 500 NHL games? I mean - I get he's a defensive Dman, but damn.

Next Dan Girardi.

And Hjalmarsson has 25 goals in 742 games.

 

[Morgs]

And Hjalmarsson has 25 goals in 742 games.

I know you're being sarcastic, but Alzner's contract is about to be one of the worst in the league because he's a bottom pairing defenseman playing top-4 minutes on the best team in the league and struggling heavily in them. Hjalmarsson is still a top-3 in the league low-event defensive defenseman.


ALZNER IS NOT THE ANSWER.

 

[Slot]

Wait, so the trade of a winger for a young D is not like the trade of a winger for a young D because...

Do you honestly not see how you played yourself here?

Both players were not doing well in their current situation. The trade was more of a change of scenery for two young high first round picks than a great winger for a bad defenceman. Turns out one guy needed a change of scenery and the other one was bad at hockey at the NHL level.

 

[Randy Randerson]

By "one-time trade" you mean the three permutations of the same trade involving young forwards and even younger D? Hall/Larsson, Johansen/Jones and JvR/Schenn are all equally comparable and as such are representative of the market value young, potential top defensemen hold.



It has been the norm for several seasons now. I'm sorry that that serves as a cold shower for your trade wet dreams, but there it is.



So several seasons of comparable trades can be thrown out the window, but a once-every-fifteen-years event like expansion sets the "barometer"? Surely you can see why that's not logical. Instead, whatever trade happens- IF one happens- will be included in the pool of like deals and evaluated that way. It would regardless still not establish as precedent a young high-pedigree D for secondary parts, as is the apparent hope of Leafs fans.

how are those permutations of the same trade?

Hall/Larsson - established franchise scoring winger for established 2/3 dman with limited upside due to a lack of offensive potential

Johansen/Jones - Established 1C for established top 4 dman with #1D upside who was widely considered to be a 50/50 candidate to go 1st OA in his draft year. Not even the same positions

JVR/Schenn - reclaimation projects on both sides, nearly a 5 year old trade, both have trended in very different directions since the trade. No one is looking at this trade to value potential top defensemen, and as a pretty involved Leafs fan I can tell you that we certainly didn't see Schenn as a "top defenseman" in the year or so before his trade

if you want to take broad strokes like this and completely disregard things like position, how players on either side had performed before those trades or accomodate for any change in their performance since their trades in determining relative values, you shouldn't be criticizing anyone else's logic

 

[Willy Stylez]

I know you're being sarcastic, but Alzner's contract is about to be one of the worst in the league because he's a bottom pairing defenseman playing top-4 minutes on the best team in the league and struggling heavily in them. Hjalmarsson is still a top-3 in the league low-event defensive defenseman.


ALZNER IS NOT THE ANSWER.

He's solid and on that caphit his done very well. I dont think he will sign a ludacris contract as many others think.

 

[Morgs]

He's solid and on that caphit his done very well. I dont think he will sign a ludacris contract as many others think.

Don't make me bring out the advanced stats.

 

[Willy Stylez]

Don't make me bring out the advanced stats.

Haha.

 

[Raymoondo]

He's solid and on that caphit his done very well. I dont think he will sign a ludacris contract as many others think.

What about a Lil Wayne contract?

 

[THall4]

I know you're being sarcastic, but Alzner's contract is about to be one of the worst in the league because he's a bottom pairing defenseman playing top-4 minutes on the best team in the league and struggling heavily in them. Hjalmarsson is still a top-3 in the league low-event defensive defenseman.


ALZNER IS NOT THE ANSWER.

Or he is. This will allow Rielly to "cheat" offensively. For example, Larsson has allowed Klefbom to be more offensive minded

 

[Blender]

Depends on how you look at it and how it's phrased. But you can make trades and get a young #1 defencemen before he's a number 1. I. E. Brent burns.

You're not trading for a number 1 if you do that, you are trading for a lesser piece with the potential of a number 1, but also with all the risk. Those deals are possible, but there are no guarantees they are Tully work out.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I think you would too but not much. Maybe a young D that can step in now.

Would Carrick fit that bill - 1st+Carrick for Braun?

 

[Funk21]

I'll probably get roasted on here for saying this but if we could work out a 1 for 1 deal with the Jets for Trouba I would move Reilly. Look I get it that Reilly is a great player already but a potential #1 RHD don't grow on trees and we seem to have a plethora of LHD who look decent and could slot into the fold as early as next year.

I also get the Reilly has is likely to have a better AAV on his contract but provided Trouba had a contract worked out with the leafs prior to the trade I would be fully on board with this swap.

Other Defenceman I would like to see the leafs go after in the offseason would be:
Dumba
Savard
Montour
Stone-UFA depending on what he looks like on a fairly decent Flames team and what he is looking
Shattenkirk-UFA, only issue is he ask/cap hit

I get that Dumba, Savard and Montour will likely cost some assets but as long as Matthews, Marner and Nylander are off the table I'd be willing to part with our 2017 1st and some players like JVR, Bozak, Komarov or prospects to get it done. Maybe that is unrealistic but with the expansion draft looming and some good young prospects in our pool I think we have a shot at a few on this list.

 

[Fat Elvis]

McNabb for Adam Brooks+4th 2018

 

[Randy Randerson]

McNabb for Adam Brooks+4th 2018

value wise.....sure I guess, bottom pair LHD is a position we'd probably prefer to keep open for our system to fill - Dermott might be ready next year. Brooks might surprise people so would prefer to just wait and see

 

[northstarnicky]

I think help will come during the expansion draft. Teams like Anaheim may look to move Clayton Stoner (only has a year remaining anyway) for a pick, instead of losing him for nothing. He can play both sides and is a physical defensive dman. Same for Florida and Alex Petrovic. He plays the right side and is a physical defensive dman with good skating ability but plays it safe. Both can probably be traded for much less than a JVR or Bozak during the expansion draft.

The Leafs don't really need a #1 dman. One can be a serious contender with SIX defense who are practically all 2,3,4 types, especially if the minutes are spread evenly.

Reilly (puck mover) Stoner (Physical Stay-at-Home)
Gardner (Puck mover) Petrovic (stay-at-home)
Carrick (puck mover forced to play stay-at-home now) Zaitsev (stay-at-home)

Now, Zaitsev and Carrick are more properly playing as 5-6 guys.

If the team as a whole can play like they did against Chicago and Detroit, THIS defense is better while not trading away pieces than can hurt us later. Not to mention letting Nielsen and Dermott continue to percolate with the Marlies.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I think help will come during the expansion draft. Teams like Anaheim may look to move Clayton Stoner (only has a year remaining anyway) for a pick, instead of losing him for nothing. He can play both sides and is a physical defensive dman. Same for Florida and Alex Petrovic. He plays the right side and is a physical defensive dman with good skating ability but plays it safe. Both can probably be traded for much less than a JVR or Bozak during the expansion draft.

The Leafs don't really need a #1 dman. One can be a serious contender with SIX defense who are practically all 2,3,4 types, especially if the minutes are spread evenly.

Reilly (puck mover) Stoner (Physical Stay-at-Home)
Gardner (Puck mover) Petrovic (stay-at-home)
Carrick (puck mover forced to play stay-at-home now) Zaitsev (stay-at-home)

Now, Zaitsev and Carrick are more properly playing as 5-6 guys.

If the team as a whole can play like they did against Chicago and Detroit, THIS defense is better while not trading away pieces than can hurt us later. Not to mention letting Nielsen and Dermott continue to percolate with the Marlies.

I think you're under rating Zaitsev, haven't seen anything that would paint him as less than a 2nd pairing guy. He's facing harder competition than most #1D's and his results aren't abysmal. Also wouldn't call him a stay at home guy, he's in the rush a lot and has great wheels. Agree that he's in over his head a bit, but 2nd pairing usage would fix that

 

[northstarnicky]

I think you're under rating Zaitsev, haven't seen anything that would paint him as less than a 2nd pairing guy. He's facing harder competition than most #1D's and his results aren't abysmal. Also wouldn't call him a stay at home guy, he's in the rush a lot and has great wheels. Agree that he's in over his head a bit, but 2nd pairing usage would fix that

I certainly didn't mean to underrate him. I was meaning spreading the minutes around more due to a lack of a true number one and playing Carrick and Zaitsev together. They would flourish playing together as #5 and #6. As a team, we would be better off. Playing everyone for around 20 minutes-ish, unless during a given game, one pair is dominating, then play them more. SIMPLY a cover up for not having a true #1 is all. No disrespect to anyone on the team.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I certainly didn't mean to underrate him. I was meaning spreading the minutes around more due to a lack of a true number one and playing Carrick and Zaitsev together. They would flourish playing together as #5 and #6. As a team, we would be better off. Playing everyone for around 20 minutes-ish, unless during a given game, one pair is dominating, then play them more. SIMPLY a cover up for not having a true #1 is all. No disrespect to anyone on the team.

I don't hate the idea, but I think to be a contender you need a "go-to" pairing who gets played in important, tight games in the most critical situations

Also think that we still have time to figure this out, we don't need to add a #1 guy today. Rielly has also looked like a #1 guy with numbers to support until his injury and in the last 2 weeks...with the normal recovery time from a high ankle sprain, that's beginning to look a lot like he rushed back and played poorly while hurt. So I don't think the book is closed on Rielly being a #1 either...in fact, I think we have lots of reason to think he'll be that going forward

An elite shot suppressing RHD would be a god-send though, our top 4 is good at moving the puck up ice when we get possession, but struggles to limit shots and break up cycles

 

[FerrisRox]

Leafs don't need a true #1 d-man. A guy like Alzner will do just fine with us.

Gardiner Zaitsev
Rielly Marchenko
Alzner Carrick
Marincin Dermott
Nielsen

Jake Gardiner is on the first pair and Alzner is on the third pair?



Never change, Leaf fans, never change.

 

[Leafin]

Braun would be a solid addition to the team. A good complementary defender that could match up well with Rielly. I wouldn't be moving a 1st at this point in the Leafs rebuild. We have time on our side to use those draft picks and develop talent. Braun will be on his last legs in a few years and that pick we traded for him will be coming in on an ELC(assuming you draft well).

The problem i have with many of these "shot suppression" and "defensive" defenseman is that they have a small margin for positive productivity. In this market they've become a tad overvalued in terms of trade value. Tanev, Manson, Braun types are great to have on your team when you've developed them and are cheap on the cap. We've seen plenty of times when these guys get traded or signed closer to their 30's and their play falls off.

A guy like Erik Johnson is the type of all around defender that will age well(health permitting) because he offers more than just sound defense.

Either way it all comes down to acquisition cost. Leafs are in no position to be moving prime young assets(Matthews, Marner, Nylander) or 1st round picks. JVR, Komarov, Bozak, 2017 and 18 2nd rounders are the pieces to move to find a defender. That doesn't get you an elite defender but it might just get us a solid top 4 piece. Or in the case of Erik Johnson the Leafs just might be in the right place at the right time with available cap space to make a deal.

Rielly - XXXX
Gardiner - Zaitsev
XXXX - Carrick/Marchenko

I think that bottom pairing defender may end up being Travis Dermott as he's had an excellent rookie year in the AHL.

 

[Birko19]

Not true. They have a 1st round pick, KK and another prospect they could give up. Most players don't come into the league as a number one defencemen. Toronto could get lucky and trade for one.

A top 15 or 20 pick in a weak draft and a prospect lesser than Nylander is not going to get you a #1 dman, not sure what pipe dream you're seeing.

 

[Kingspiracy]

Perhaps a player like willie mitchell was for LA, a true professional with great leadership and maturity to teach the young guys, but still able to play to a top level. Not sure who that is, but that sort of guy.

 

[Raym11]

Ideally the Leafs need to stumble across a "too good to be true" deal around Jvr that ends up similar to the Gomez/Mcdonagh trade


Need a Hamhuis type player as well.