Value of: Can anyone fix the Leafs defense without leaving the team worse than it is?

[Viqsi]

Well said, but another huge wrinkle that people miss in applying Hall-Larsson is contract status.
If any "benchmark" was set with Hall-Larsson it was that of the mid twenties top line winger with decent contract 4/4+ years to UFA for the mid-twenties 2/3 RHD with decent contract 4/4+ years to UFA

The connection from the above to "the going rate for a top 4D is a borderline 1stline winger still on their ELC with 1C potential" look at at Hall-Larsson, is a massive unsupported stretch

I think folks are presuming that Nylander is mostly playing wing now, therefore He's A Winger And Always Will Be, And Oh Yeah He Could Still Bust Away From Matthews So Clearly He's Worth Even Less and similar comedy.

No folks. It doesn't work that way.

* * *​

If you want a true number one guy, one of Matthews, Marner, or Nylander need to move, and that is assuming a number one dman is actually available.

True, but I don't think they need to go that far.

And of those three, Nylander is the most movable. Marner's doing the whole "I can turn nothingness into highlight reel material" thing still and Matthews is Matthews. If Nylander gets traded, I'd expect some kind of high-profile young blueliner coming back. Not sure where from, tho; the most probable team I can think of is Carolina, and they've got young Cs that are looking good already. Maybe Anaheim if Getzlaf completely falls apart in short order (unlikely).

* * *​

JVR, with one year left on his contract, doesn't get you anything close to a top pairing defenseman with term. Even a signed JVR probably doesn't get you that.

True, but in that case I don't think the target would be a top-pairing guy. Someone who can stabilize lower pairings would be just as valuable in Toronto.

* * *​

Our salvation is in Vegas. They will have what we need and we will have what they need.

I don't think Vegas would have a top-pairing guy, but I do think that a Vegas-Leafs trade is both likely to happen and likely to be beneficial for both.

* * *​

What would you move for:
[...]
Werenski?

Curious to see your proposal for each. Ignore cap hits and contracts.

Don't bother with a Werenski proposal. Nothing will be accepted. No, it's not a overpayment thing; I can go into the details if folks are really put out by it, but this is a Leafs thread.

Also, c'mon. "Ignore cap hits and contracts"? Trying to determine objective player value is already akin to that old physics test question canard of "frictionless, massless, in a rest state" and you want to get rid of even more?

 

[Kamiccolo]

looking for a top pairing guy without wanting to give anything up.. hmm

Keep seeing this but there is no fact to it.

Make a proposal. Everything Leaf fans suggest is laughed at. This thread is now mannnyyy pages in and hardly any proposals. Just tons of people saying "They need to move a big piece" and such.

So let's hear it. Unless the suggestion is the Leafs have no possible moves to make.

Stuff like Matthews for a guy in his prime makes no sense either. Has to at least fit the teams needs. If the price is high, but it fills a need it has to be looked at.

This means Nylander/ Tanev makes no sense.

 

[Proust*]

Keep seeing this but there is no fact to it.

Make a proposal. Everything Leaf fans suggest is laughed at. This thread is now mannnyyy pages in and hardly any proposals. Just tons of people saying "They need to move a big piece" and such.

So let's hear it. Unless the suggestion is the Leafs have no possible moves to make.

The Leafs are the one who need a D, so they should be making the proposals. And not ones where JVR or Kapanen are the major pieces.

 

[StuckOutHere]

Yeap, a franchie forward to be the head of the Knights

I wounder if Marner or Nylander would look the best in the Knights uniform...

He's been there, destroyed that.

 

[Fogelhund]

Keep seeing this but there is no fact to it.

Make a proposal. Everything Leaf fans suggest is laughed at. This thread is now mannnyyy pages in and hardly any proposals. Just tons of people saying "They need to move a big piece" and such.

So let's hear it. Unless the suggestion is the Leafs have no possible moves to make.

Stuff like Matthews for a guy in his prime makes no sense either. Has to at least fit the teams needs. If the price is high, but it fills a need it has to be looked at.

This means Nylander/ Tanev makes no sense.

I've made the same basic proposal multiple times... either everyone hates it, or whatever the case, it always gets glossed over, in favour of arguing about other things..


Assuming, Philly stays at 9...and we end up somewhere between 14-18..

Philly fans are trying to find a way to get a #2C. Even have posted threads offering to trade Couts for one.

We've got a solution... #14 + Bozak for #9... draft Liljegren.

Or, if we are #18.... #18 + Bozak + Bracco/Rychel..or other choice of Wingers from Marlies....

Philly gets a reasonable cost contained #2C... maybe not a high end one, but then they have a high end #3... Doesn't cost them a roster player, still have a pick, compensated for dropping further down.

This is a trade day, on the floor trade, if our RHD is still available.

 

[Birko19]

The chances of Nylander, Matthews or Marner being moved are ZERO. Not even close. The big 3 are the core that Toronto is building around.

Toronto will be patient, draft and develop.

Then the chance for the Leafs getting a true number one dman through trade is also zero, plain and simple.

Your best bet is to wait on one of your young upcoming dman and hope one of them develops into an actual stud, or wait for free agency and hope one would be available, though if the last few free agencies have taught us anything, it's that the latter option is also highly unlikely.

 

[StephenPeat]

I've made the same basic proposal multiple times... either everyone hates it, or whatever the case, it always gets glossed over, in favour of arguing about other things..


Assuming, Philly stays at 9...and we end up somewhere between 14-18..

Philly fans are trying to find a way to get a #2C. Even have posted threads offering to trade Couts for one.

We've got a solution... #14 + Bozak for #9... draft Liljegren.

Or, if we are #18.... #18 + Bozak + Bracco/Rychel..or other choice of Wingers from Marlies....

Philly gets a reasonable cost contained #2C... maybe not a high end one, but then they have a high end #3... Doesn't cost them a roster player, still have a pick, compensated for dropping further down.

This is a trade day, on the floor trade, if our RHD is still available.

The thought that Tyler Bozak is a piece that will move the Leafs into the Top 10 is laughable. People must not understand historical perspective when they discuss dealing into the Top 10. Unless the pick exchange is less than 5 spots (basically unless the Leafs flame out and pick 10-13) Bozak is nowhere near enough to move the Leafs pick into the Top 10, I'll gladly eat my words if someone can provide a similar trade since 2000. Top 10 picks are rarely traded and when they are it's for far better players than Bozak.....moving up, weak draft, regardless.

 

[shortfuze]

Then the chance for the Leafs getting a true number one dman through trade is also zero, plain and simple.

Your best bet is to wait on one of your young upcoming dman and hope one of them develops into an actual stud, or wait for free agency and hope one would be available, though if the last few free agencies have taught us anything, it's that the latter option is also highly unlikely.

Not true. They have a 1st round pick, KK and another prospect they could give up. Most players don't come into the league as a number one defencemen. Toronto could get lucky and trade for one.

 

[meefer]

One thing that seems to be forgotten in this discussion about the Leafs needs for an upgrade on D is the average age of the D group the Leafs are using this year. According to QuantHockey, the Leafs have the youngest average age in the NHL this year @ 24.192 beating even Carolina @ 24.665 and are more than a full year average age below the 3rd youngest team's D average age, New Jersey at 25.365 . When you couple this with the number of rookies that are playing the F positions for the Leafs, is there any wonder that they've been experiencing huge difficulties in their own zone? This isn't to say that an upgrade in ability wouldn't be welcome in Leafland, it certainly would. But, if an improvement over Hunlack is acquired, even at just the 3rd pairing, and given another years development for both the D grouping as a whole and the F grouping in support, I don't think it's going overboard to suggest that the team's overall defensive outlook is better than the reality of today. I'd argue for patience, a trade(s) or reasonable free agent signing that lands us an improvement somewhere (or entirely) on the 3rd pairing and a hope that one or more of our draft picks is able to squirrel his way up the ladder and provide needed improvement, while Rielly/Zaitsev and (please, please, please) Gardiner improve with the development of the team. If, in a year or two, it is determined that we need to trade for an impact player, hopefully our improving stable of young players + whatever might be deemed necessary will be sufficient to garner that type of player.

 

[Fogelhund]

The thought that Tyler Bozak is a piece that will move the Leafs into the Top 10 is laughable. People must not understand historical perspective when they discuss dealing into the Top 10. Unless the pick exchange is less than 5 spots (basically unless the Leafs flame out and pick 10-13) Bozak is nowhere near enough to move the Leafs pick into the Top 10, I'll gladly eat my words if someone can provide a similar trade since 2000. Top 10 picks are rarely traded and when they are it's for far better players than Bozak.....moving up, weak draft, regardless.

..and strangely... 9-14 is 5 spots. In a weak draft...

and if Leafs draft higher... adding in a prospect, based on making up that difference... at 18..

Bozak gets far too little credit for the player he is a 0.6PPG C, 0.56% in the dot the last two years... He is a solid, yet unspectacular NHL player... (0.64PPG last three seasons)

Stats not too different than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (0.62PPG last three seasons), for a third less cap hit, better in the dots... and really the cost is not much, to provide a solution to the problem Philly fans claim to have....

I suggested, your choice of a Marlies winger, or Bracco, if the pick was above say 13-14....


So, former #22 overall, at PPG in AHL at 20 years old
Or former #19 overall, who has been at more than PPG since acclimating to the Marlies...
or 22 year old, at PPG in AHL.

The interesting thing is, these are negotiations... and somehow, dropping back 4-9 spots, isn't worth a good, cheap 2C, and PPG player in the AHL at 20-22? All at the cost of no roster players... while many Philly fans thinks trading Couts for RNH is a GOOD option?

Here is a comparable trade. Actually the only comparable I could find since 2005.

Sharks/Blues
Traded 2007 first round pick (#13-Lars Eller), 2007 second round pick (#44-Aaron Palushaj), 2008 third round pick (#87-Ian Schultz) to Blues for 2007 first round pick (#9-Logan Couture) on 2007-06-22

So four spots... for a #44 second round, and a late third.... IMO, Bozak is worth at least a mid second round pick... if you disagree, fine, adding a third should make it equal to this prior transaction.

Adding a PPG 20-22 AHL player, former first round pick, or your choice of other options, should even out an additional 4-5 spots... or if not, using this as a basis... how do you modify? What other prospects/picks?

 

[Blender]

Not true. They have a 1st round pick, KK and another prospect they could give up. Most players don't come into the league as a number one defencemen. Toronto could get lucky and trade for one.

Trading for a young defenseman with potential is not the same as trading for a #1 or top pairing defenseman.

 

[Starat327]

I've made the same basic proposal multiple times... either everyone hates it, or whatever the case, it always gets glossed over, in favour of arguing about other things..


Assuming, Philly stays at 9...and we end up somewhere between 14-18..

Philly fans are trying to find a way to get a #2C. Even have posted threads offering to trade Couts for one.

We've got a solution... #14 + Bozak for #9... draft Liljegren.

Or, if we are #18.... #18 + Bozak + Bracco/Rychel..or other choice of Wingers from Marlies....

Philly gets a reasonable cost contained #2C... maybe not a high end one, but then they have a high end #3... Doesn't cost them a roster player, still have a pick, compensated for dropping further down.

This is a trade day, on the floor trade, if our RHD is still available.

For better or worse, we've got Flip now. The Bozak ship has sailed

 

[Gecklund]

What about Braun for a first? Or Dillon for a second?

 

[4thline]

What about Braun for a first? Or Dillon for a second?

All over that. Would add if need be (I think we would have to)

 

[StephenPeat]

..and strangely... 9-14 is 5 spots. In a weak draft...

and if Leafs draft higher... adding in a prospect, based on making up that difference... at 18..

Bozak gets far too little credit for the player he is a 0.6PPG C, 0.56% in the dot the last two years... He is a solid, yet unspectacular NHL player... (0.64PPG last three seasons)

Stats not too different than Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (0.62PPG last three seasons), for a third less cap hit, better in the dots... and really the cost is not much, to provide a solution to the problem Philly fans claim to have....

I suggested, your choice of a Marlies winger, or Bracco, if the pick was above say 13-14....


So, former #22 overall, at PPG in AHL at 20 years old
Or former #19 overall, who has been at more than PPG since acclimating to the Marlies...
or 22 year old, at PPG in AHL.

The interesting thing is, these are negotiations... and somehow, dropping back 4-9 spots, isn't worth a good, cheap 2C, and PPG player in the AHL at 20-22? All at the cost of no roster players... while many Philly fans thinks trading Couts for RNH is a GOOD option?

Here is a comparable trade. Actually the only comparable I could find since 2005.

Sharks/Blues
Traded 2007 first round pick (#13-Lars Eller), 2007 second round pick (#44-Aaron Palushaj), 2008 third round pick (#87-Ian Schultz) to Blues for 2007 first round pick (#9-Logan Couture) on 2007-06-22

So four spots... for a #44 second round, and a late third.... IMO, Bozak is worth at least a mid second round pick... if you disagree, fine, adding a third should make it equal to this prior transaction.

Adding a PPG 20-22 AHL player, former first round pick, or your choice of other options, should even out an additional 4-5 spots... or if not, using this as a basis... how do you modify? What other prospects/picks?

That's a pick-for-pick trade so not really comparable. Picks represent futures for a rebuilding team, thus Top 10 picks which usually belong to rebuilding teams are rarely traded for a package including as a sweetener a guy who is over 30. Additionally a 2nd + 3rd probably has more value to a rebuilding team than a 30+ year old mediocre vet (players like Bozak are not in short supply).

Even in the closest comparable it's not difficult to see who won and who lost that trade. I doubt that particular example is the one you want to use to support your argument. If Eller in your scenario becomes Bozak, I'm certain the Flyers will keep the ? that might become Couture.

 

[shortfuze]

Trading for a young defenseman with potential is not the same as trading for a #1 or top pairing defenseman.

Depends on how you look at it and how it's phrased. But you can make trades and get a young #1 defencemen before he's a number 1. I. E. Brent burns.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

Sign Alzner or Shattenkirk

 

[Gecklund]

All over that. Would add if need be (I think we would have to)

I think you would too but not much. Maybe a young D that can step in now.

 

[PatrikOverAuston]

Luke Schenn gets you JVR. Not a fluke, am I right? Third pairing D get you first line wingers. See how stupid it sounds to use one bad trade as a benchmark for all future trades? Or does this not work because the Oilers weren't on the short end of the stick, which you seem desperate to justify.

Wait, so the trade of a winger for a young D is not like the trade of a winger for a young D because...

Do you honestly not see how you played yourself here?

 

[PatrikOverAuston]

This thread is now mannnyyy pages in and hardly any proposals. Just tons of people saying "They need to move a big piece" and such.

Almost like how that's the only logical answer?

I will agree with you on one point: this thread should have been locked eons ago, as there was no way the HF Leafs contingent was ever going to accept the basic truth that trading for a big piece would cost a big piece. Instead we've been treated to mannnyyy pages of Dermott, Gardiner, etc.- a fairly predictable if sad outcome.

 

[4thline]

I think you would too but not much. Maybe a young D that can step in now.

Perfectly reasonable, could see if being even more and would be willing. Like a lot more. Think you're underselling your guy here honestly

Literally the perfect solution, solid shot suppressing defensive 3 with some term, vet with playoff experience.

yeah.

No take backs haha.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Wait, so the trade of a winger for a young D is not like the trade of a winger for a young D because...

Do you honestly not see how you played yourself here?

the one-time bad trade of a winger for a D doesn't set the precedent for future trades of the same positions until it repeats as a trend.

Until another team demonstrates that they are willing to give up a franchise level winger for a 2/3 defenseman, this trade is an outlier, not the new normal

We'll see where the barometer ends up soon, teams' hands will be forced by expansion to make trades involving top 4 dmen, so we'll see which side of this argument is right before the summer is out

 

[34]

It is nearly impossible to trade for a #1 D. The only was teams have these stud D is because they drafted them.

Same as big franchise centres like Matthews. Those type of players do not get traded.

 

[Morgs]

Yeah Alzner is going to at least clear 6m. And his contract is going to start looking bad pretty damn quickly. Career possession numbers are trash and he just doesn't put up points. 19 goals in over 500 NHL games? I mean - I get he's a defensive Dman, but damn.

Next Dan Girardi.

I've been preaching this on the Leafs board. Nobody seems to listen though.

 

[Starat327]

the one-time bad trade of a winger for a D doesn't set the precedent for future trades of the same positions until it repeats as a trend.

Until another team demonstrates that they are willing to give up a franchise level winger for a 2/3 defenseman, this trade is an outlier, not the new normal

We'll see where the barometer ends up soon, teams' hands will be forced by expansion to make trades involving top 4 dmen, so we'll see which side of this argument is right before the summer is out

You could argue that trades made recently and over the next few months shouldnt be an indicator of player values at all, given that the expansion draft is driving some of these moves.

I'd imagine there are going to be trades made that teams would otherwise not make, and are going to take a hit on value simply because the market will be much smaller. Teams are only going to acquire a player if they can protect him, limiting the number of teams that are effectively 'in' on a player, where if they didnt have to worry about protecting him, the market would be much bigger.