The Blues were #20 in blocked shots.
If you look at the goalies in the Top 10 for save percentage last year, only 1 G (Braden Holtby) played on a team that finished higher than #19 in blocked shots. Less BS allows for more low-percentage shots/easy saves -> higher save percentage.
Raw blocked shot total numbers really don't explain much. Blocking 7 shots and allowing only 20, means there were only 20 shots to save. That's not beneficial to save percentage. Blocking 9 shots and allowing 27, may be more beneficial
to save percentage.
Really though, you can just look at what percentage of attempts were blocked (all numbers from corsica.hockey):
Last season the
Blues blocked 25.5% of the shot attempts directed at Elliott.
Last season the Flames blocked 26.5% of the shot attempts directed at Ortio.
Last season the Flames blocked 28.9% of the shot attempts directed at Ramo.
All in all, yes we can agree the Flames block more shot attempts than the Blues. But that probably speaks less to Elliott's stats being
inflated than it does to Ortio/Ramo's stats being
deflated.
As you said, "If you look at the goalies in the Top 10 for save percentage last year, only 1 G (Braden Holtby) played on a team that finished higher than #19 in blocked shots.". Your own logic applies to the other SV% leaders too, so is that not an even playing field?
Last season the
Lightning blocked 22.8% of the shot attempts directed at Bishop.
Last season the Islanders blocked 27.4% of the shot attempts directed at Greiss.
Last season the
Devils blocked 24.7% of the shot attempts directed at Schneider
Last season the
Blackhawks blocked 24.9% of the shot attempts directed at Crawford.
Last season the
Sabres blocked 23.7% of the shot attempts directed at Lehner.
Last season the Flyers blocked 28.9% of the shot attempts directed at Neuvirth
Last season the
Panthers blocked 21.7% of the shot attempts directed at Luongo.
Last season the
Leafs/Sharks blocked 24.2 of the shot attempts directed at Reimer
Last season the Capitals blocked 28.0% of the shot attempts directed at Holtby.
So among the top ten SV% leaders, you've helped establish that Elliott's conditions for a good SV% were... what exactly in the parameter of blocked shots? Easy? But Luongo and Bishop's were notably easier to pad based upon your logic. Average? What exactly is league average? Well last season, NHL teams blocked 34845 of 136530 attempts - or 25.6% of the shots directed towards their goalies. At 25.5%, Elliott's saves inflated by blocked shots is
marginal at best.
Further by focusing only on the totals, you're going to have less blocked shots if you're playing in the offensive and neutral zone more. Saves aren't being made while you're in the offensive zone. You need to be in the defensive zone to make saves.
Put Ramo on the Blues and I bet he has a .920 sv percentage.
So Ramo is a better goalie than Jake Allen? Either Jake Allen should not be in the league, or Ramo should have an NHL contract right now but miraculously does not? Which is it?
Elliot is solid but saying he isn't helped by the blues system
I have not said that he isn't
helped by the Blues system. Have I?
They are the best defensive team in the NHL and give up less scoring chances then anyone.
Do you have proof of this claim or is it just an opinion?
For the record the 2015-16 Blues were 16th in high danger chances against per 60 minutes. Based on the quality of chances they gave up they were 18th in expected goals against. The only evidence I can find suggests that the Blues, while solid defensively, were not elite defensively the way the Lightning, Predators, Sharks were. Not last year. Though we could always look at bigger samples where yes, over the last handful of years the Blues have been a strong defensive team. Key word 'a'. Not 'the best in the NHL'.
The fact that Hitch plays a defensive style of system and has the personal to execute it.
And what about that is
unique to Hitch and the Blues? Cooper, Babcock, Sutter, Hynes, DeBoer, Laviolette, Gallant, Julien. Chara, Bergeron, Hedman, Stralman, Kopitar, Doughty, Vlasic, Couture, Thornton, Zajac, Larsson, Greene, Weber, Josi, Ellis, Ekholm, Barkov.
Plenty of teams have the personnel and the systems to execute. To isolate Hitchcock is unwarranted. Am I going to argue he's not a good defensive coach with some good personnel? No I agree with those claims. But I don't agree that he has done anything that is so artifically inflating his goalie's numbers that other coaches are not.
Do you know what expected fenwick save percentage (
xFSV%) is? It is a stat, also from corsica.hockey, which is the save percentage that would be
expected of a league average goalie based on the following parameters of shot attempts faced:
corsica said:
Shot type (Wrist shot, slap shot, deflection, etc.)
Shot distance (Adjusted4 distance from net)
Shot angle (Angle in absolute degrees from the central line normal to the goal line)
Rebounds (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was a rebound)
Rush shots (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was a rush shot)
Strength state (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was taken on the powerplay)
One thing I should be careful to point out is that this stat (xFSV% / FSV%)does include missed shots whereas basic save percentage does not (only so-called 'shots' - hitting the crossbar is not a 'save' for instance). But in the end you're still comparing across a level playing field, and by including missed shots you are increasing the sample for a more accurate picture of what kind of shots are being directed towards a goalie. In the long run it's better to use goals prevented based on the unblocked shot attempts directed at the goalie.
So anyways Elliott has been a successful goalie for the past five years. That much we agree on.
He has posted SV%s of:
94.03 (38GP)
90.68 (24GP, lockout season)
92.22 (31GP)
91.65 (46GP)
93.00 (42GP)
Adding in missed shots in order to get that aformentioned sample size, his
FSV% in those respective years become:
95.74
93.45
94.63
94.06
94.97
You can see that there is a direct relationship between SV% and FSV%. That's because missed shots will average out over large samples. Neither a goalie nor skaters can use The Force to make the opponent miss the net to any significant degree. Whether you choose to use SV% or FSV% you will get the same ability to compare different goalies, the only difference is by using FSV% you have a bigger sample of shot locations / types.
So back to xFSV% - What has been the expected Fenwick save percentage in front of Elliott? If the Blues are the best defensive team in the league, he should have the best expected F.save percentage, no? More importantly, his own FSV% if a "pretty good goalie" should be at least slightly better than his expected F.save percentage, yes? The difference between the two (
adj.FSV%) should be somewhat positive:
Brian Elliott
Season|x.FSV%|FSV%|adj.FSV%
2011-12|93.88 | 95.74|+1.86
2012-13|93.75 | 93.45|-0.30
2013-14|93.91 |94.63|+0.72
2014-15|94.06| 94.06|+0.00
2015-16|93.09|94.97|+1.87
Adj.FSV% is a stat that separates the goalie from the team.. What does this tell us? In 2014-15, Elliott was not elite, only average. In the lockout season, Elliott struggled, but we all know that was a bizarre season with bizarre scheduling, no training camps, and small sample sizes. But what else does this mean? In 2013-14 Elliott was strong, and in 2011-12 and 2015-16 he was
carrying his team regardless of how well they played in front of him. To dismiss his two seasons where he happened to lead the NHL in SV% because of the team in front of him, would be to dismiss the level he was playing at individually. He earned those SV% titles in those two seasons.
In 2011-12 there were still eight goalies with a higher xFSV% including big names - Thomas, Rinne, Kipprusoff and Quick. He was a great goalie on a great team. That's how he posted a league-leading SV% of .940 - it was neither the team alone nor the goalie alone.
In 2015-16 there were 42 goalies with higher xFSV% than him including Karri Ramo and his own teammate Jake Allen. He was just.. really damn good last year behind a team that had injury problems all season. Lundqvist btw was 44th in terms of x.FSV%. The Blues did not play that well in front of him last year. He was just
that good.
If you agree that adj.FSV% is a highly useful stat for
goalie evaluation rather than
team evaluation, then you have to look at where Elliott's adj.FSV% ranks over the last 5 seasons. Remember again this is simply the difference between expected and actual fenwick save percentage. It is a stat
designed to filter out the team.
Among goalies with 200+ games played (Regular Season + Playoffs) from 2011-2016:
Player|Team|GP|FSv%|Sv%|xFSv%|Adj.FSv%|LDSv%|MDSv%|HDSv%
HENRIK.LUNDQVIST|NYR|361|94.61|92.42|93.18|1.43|98.63|93.26|82.88
CORY.SCHNEIDER|N.J/VAN|240|94.44|92.59|93.28|1.16|97.62|93.56|84.29
BRIAN.ELLIOTT|STL|214|94.61|92.35|93.68|
0.93
|97.47|93.66|81.71
JAROSLAV.HALAK|NYI/STL/WSH|218|94.14|91.86|93.24|0.9|97.85|92.48|83.13
JONATHAN.QUICK|L.A|364|94.43|91.97|93.57|0.86|97.79|92.48|81.71
BRADEN.HOLTBY|WSH|276|94.49|92.34|93.74|0.75|97.73|92.13|83.18
CAREY.PRICE|MTL|269|94.35|92.23|93.6|0.75|98.01|92.3|81.99
MIKE.SMITH|ARI|273|94.13|91.8|93.56|0.57|97.92|91.82|82.29
KARI.LEHTONEN|DAL|285|93.83|91.25|93.3|0.53|97.57|92.33|80.39
BEN.BISHOP|T.B/OTT|254|94.43|92.22|93.96|0.46|98.19|92.18|81.73
SEMYON.VARLAMOV|COL|272|94.07|91.72|93.61|0.46|97.71|92.9|79.89
TUUKKA.RASK|BOS|285|94.59|92.54|94.18|0.41|98.06|92.3|81.33
CRAIG.ANDERSON|OTT|256|94.01|91.9|93.61|0.4|98.33|92.62|79.37
ONDREJ.PAVELEC|WPG|256|93.31|90.68|92.92|0.39|98.15|91.94|79.48
COREY.CRAWFORD|CHI|336|93.93|91.85|93.57|0.37|98.03|92.43|81.35
ROBERTO.LUONGO|FLA/VAN|265|94.03|91.95|93.66|0.37|98.17|93.04|79.67
CAM.WARD|CAR|218|93.65|90.99|93.3|0.35|97.82|92.39|78.26
MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY|PIT|317|93.87|91.52|93.52|0.34|97.9|92.46|80.14
JONAS.HILLER|CGY/ANA|247|93.79|90.95|93.47|0.31|97.13|92.19|80.17
DEVAN.DUBNYK|MIN/ARI/EDM/NSH|260|93.99|91.55|93.69|0.3|97.67|91.91|80.46
RYAN.MILLER|VAN/BUF/STL|265|93.81|91.52|93.61|0.2|97.61|92.07|81.11
SERGEI.BOBROVSKY|CBJ/PHI|220|93.84|91.67|93.66|0.18|97.52|92.79|79.92
JIMMY.HOWARD|DET|265|93.62|91.44|93.49|0.13|97.89|92.56|79.65
ANTTI.NIEMI|DAL/S.J|311|93.91|91.35|93.86|0.05|97.76|92.03|78.39
STEVE.MASON|PHI/CBJ|240|93.64|91.46|93.76|-0.12|97.93|92.19|78.28
PEKKA.RINNE|NSH|300|93.86|91.54|94.11|-0.25|98.06|92.19|77.1
Now keep in mind Carey Price was a developing goalie in some of those seasons, he has shot up that list more recently. But ultimately, I think this shows that Elliott has been, on average, elite.
Why is he able to have such a high adj.SV%? Look at his medium danger save percentage on the same table. On shots, roughly hash-marks in, he is just a monster - that's a better medium danger save percentage than Lundqvist or Schneider. His high danger save percentage is also respectable, at 8th-best among these goalies. He actually has one of the worst low danger save percentages in this group, the only guy worse being Jonas Hiller - it's the medium and high danger areas where Elliott is driving his adj.FSV% - a sign of a great goalie.
Adj.FSV% over a decent sample is probably the best indicator of where a goalie ranks. Well Elliott ranks 3rd. Even if you consider Price's development and ascension, that would make him still likely to be the 4th best goalie in the league.
Independant of the quality of the team in front of him. You can also see guys like Rask, Bishop, Rinne and Holtby have higher xFSV% over the same time period. But having a high expected save percentage doesn't mean you produce a high save percentage. Elliott has performed better than expectations, even if those expectations are high on a good team.
If he trends towards an adj.FSV% of +0.93 next season (his 2011-2016 average) and the Flames trend towards an xFSV% of 93.58% (our average 2013-2016 - the Gio-Brodie era) that would give Elliott a FSV% of 94.51% which would end up as a SV% of roughly .920