Confirmed with Link: Brian Elliott to Flames for 35th Overall + Conditional 3rd in 2018 (if he resigns)

[Lunatik]

I like Elliot, he's the best netminder we've had since Kipper retired. I think they really like his character and how he will fit in the lockeroom as well.

I'm not sold on him being an elite starter though. I think he could be, but I haven't seen enough to know and say it with 100% confidence. But I do think we are getting a guy where statistically a lot of goalies hit their prime, so who knows. I love the addition and the price that we paid. But if Elliot isn't a total wall this season, I have zero doubts that we bring in Bishop next year.

you have blind faith in Kylington, have it in Elliott too.

 

[Unlimited Chequing]

I like Elliot, he's the best netminder we've had since Kipper retired. I think they really like his character and how he will fit in the lockeroom as well.

I'm not sold on him being an elite starter though. I think he could be, but I haven't seen enough to know and say it with 100% confidence. But I do think we are getting a guy where statistically a lot of goalies hit their prime, so who knows. I love the addition and the price that we paid. But if Elliot isn't a total wall this season, I have zero doubts that we bring in Bishop next year.

Honestly, I'd be perfectly happy if he were just a reliable starter. He doesn't have to be elite as long as he's consistent and can be depended on.

I've always felt that one of the strengths in 2014-2015 that's not given enough credit was that while neither Ramo nor Hiller were all-star, highlight reel goaltenders, the tandem was really decent throughout most of the season. There's no doubt that last year was a weird one in that the Pacific division was ridiculously terrible, but that didn't change the fact we were in the hunt for a playoff spot for most of it. Now if we had some solid goaltending from the start, who knows where we would have ended up in the standings?

Just the addition of Elliot alone has got me really excited for this year.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Honestly, I'd be perfectly happy if he were just a reliable starter. He doesn't have to be elite as long as he's consistent and can be depended on.

I've always felt that one of the strengths in 2014-2015 that's not given enough credit was that while neither Ramo nor Hiller were all-star, highlight reel goaltenders, the tandem was really decent throughout most of the season. There's no doubt that last year was a weird one in that the Pacific division was ridiculously terrible, but that didn't change the fact we were in the hunt for a playoff spot for most of it. Now if we had some solid goaltending from the start, who knows where we would have ended up in the standings?

Just the addition of Elliot alone has got me really excited for this year.

I agree UC. More than anything when I'm talking elite, when we acquired Elliott we keep hearing that he had the best SV% in the NHL. Personally I see that as more of a team stat. I don't really expect he's going to come here, be the main guy and post the same kind of elite numbers he did in STL.

I definitely think he will be reliable, potentially a lot better than just that. But at the same time if he's just "okay", and we have a chance at Bishop next offseason, I think Treliving will upgrade without thinking twice.

Lastly, I predict Johnson will have a much bigger impact than many think. I do expect he's going to start about 40% of the games and be very solid. Johnson was fantastic for a very meh Buffalo team last season and easily outperformed Lehner who was their big acquisition. I actually don't think Johnson will be much of a downgrade from Elliott.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

It's not that Elliott has the best save percentage, it's that he's had consistently the best save percentage over a significant period of time.

My concern isn't his ability to perform in the position, it's whether he can carry the load of a bona-fide #1. Which is why they picked up Johnson.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

It's not that Elliott has the best save percentage, it's that he's had consistently the best save percentage over a significant period of time.

My concern isn't his ability to perform in the position, it's whether he can carry the load of a bona-fide #1. Which is why they picked up Johnson.

After those years of killing Kipper I am convinced thst playing your starter 65+ games a season is not a sign they are elite, it is a sign your team has too much money invested in them. If we can get a 54-28 split or so from Elliott-Johnson we will be the team with the more fresh starter come playoff time.

I agree UC. More than anything when I'm talking elite, when we acquired Elliott we keep hearing that he had the best SV% in the NHL. Personally I see that as more of a team stat.

Why is it a team stat? (I am going somewhere with this, just play along for now...)

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Why is it a team stat? (I am going somewhere with this, just play along for now...)

Well the argument is obviously he's a product of the Blues system, it's hard to dispute that. Elliott is absolutely good, but we'll likely find out how good very soon.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Well the argument is obviously he's a product of the Blues system, it's hard to dispute that.

What element of the Blues system increases his save percentage?

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

What element of the Blues system increases his save percentage?

The fact that Hitch plays a defensive style of system and has the personal to execute it.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

What element of the Blues system increases his save percentage?

Put Ramo on the Blues and I bet he has a .920 sv percentage. Elliot is solid but saying he isn't helped by the blues system is crazy. They are the best defensive team in the NHL and give up less scoring chances then anyone.

 

[Kipper933]

What element of the Blues system increases his save percentage?

The Blues were #20 in blocked shots.

If you look at the goalies in the Top 10 for save percentage last year, only 1 G (Braden Holtby) played on a team that finished higher than #19 in blocked shots. Less BS allows for more low-percentage shots/easy saves -> higher save percentage.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

The Blues were #20 in blocked shots.

If you look at the goalies in the Top 10 for save percentage last year, only 1 G (Braden Holtby) played on a team that finished higher than #19 in blocked shots. Less BS allows for more low-percentage shots/easy saves -> higher save percentage.

Raw blocked shot total numbers really don't explain much. Blocking 7 shots and allowing only 20, means there were only 20 shots to save. That's not beneficial to save percentage. Blocking 9 shots and allowing 27, may be more beneficial to save percentage.

Really though, you can just look at what percentage of attempts were blocked (all numbers from corsica.hockey):

Last season the Blues blocked 25.5% of the shot attempts directed at Elliott.
Last season the Flames blocked 26.5% of the shot attempts directed at Ortio.
Last season the Flames blocked 28.9% of the shot attempts directed at Ramo.

All in all, yes we can agree the Flames block more shot attempts than the Blues. But that probably speaks less to Elliott's stats being inflated than it does to Ortio/Ramo's stats being deflated.

As you said, "If you look at the goalies in the Top 10 for save percentage last year, only 1 G (Braden Holtby) played on a team that finished higher than #19 in blocked shots.". Your own logic applies to the other SV% leaders too, so is that not an even playing field?

Last season the Lightning blocked 22.8% of the shot attempts directed at Bishop.
Last season the Islanders blocked 27.4% of the shot attempts directed at Greiss.
Last season the Devils blocked 24.7% of the shot attempts directed at Schneider
Last season the Blackhawks blocked 24.9% of the shot attempts directed at Crawford.
Last season the Sabres blocked 23.7% of the shot attempts directed at Lehner.
Last season the Flyers blocked 28.9% of the shot attempts directed at Neuvirth
Last season the Panthers blocked 21.7% of the shot attempts directed at Luongo.
Last season the Leafs/Sharks blocked 24.2 of the shot attempts directed at Reimer
Last season the Capitals blocked 28.0% of the shot attempts directed at Holtby.

So among the top ten SV% leaders, you've helped establish that Elliott's conditions for a good SV% were... what exactly in the parameter of blocked shots? Easy? But Luongo and Bishop's were notably easier to pad based upon your logic. Average? What exactly is league average? Well last season, NHL teams blocked 34845 of 136530 attempts - or 25.6% of the shots directed towards their goalies. At 25.5%, Elliott's saves inflated by blocked shots is marginal at best.

Further by focusing only on the totals, you're going to have less blocked shots if you're playing in the offensive and neutral zone more. Saves aren't being made while you're in the offensive zone. You need to be in the defensive zone to make saves.

Put Ramo on the Blues and I bet he has a .920 sv percentage.

So Ramo is a better goalie than Jake Allen? Either Jake Allen should not be in the league, or Ramo should have an NHL contract right now but miraculously does not? Which is it?

Elliot is solid but saying he isn't helped by the blues system

I have not said that he isn't helped by the Blues system. Have I?

They are the best defensive team in the NHL and give up less scoring chances then anyone.

Do you have proof of this claim or is it just an opinion?

For the record the 2015-16 Blues were 16th in high danger chances against per 60 minutes. Based on the quality of chances they gave up they were 18th in expected goals against. The only evidence I can find suggests that the Blues, while solid defensively, were not elite defensively the way the Lightning, Predators, Sharks were. Not last year. Though we could always look at bigger samples where yes, over the last handful of years the Blues have been a strong defensive team. Key word 'a'. Not 'the best in the NHL'.

The fact that Hitch plays a defensive style of system and has the personal to execute it.

And what about that is unique to Hitch and the Blues? Cooper, Babcock, Sutter, Hynes, DeBoer, Laviolette, Gallant, Julien. Chara, Bergeron, Hedman, Stralman, Kopitar, Doughty, Vlasic, Couture, Thornton, Zajac, Larsson, Greene, Weber, Josi, Ellis, Ekholm, Barkov.

Plenty of teams have the personnel and the systems to execute. To isolate Hitchcock is unwarranted. Am I going to argue he's not a good defensive coach with some good personnel? No I agree with those claims. But I don't agree that he has done anything that is so artifically inflating his goalie's numbers that other coaches are not.

Do you know what expected fenwick save percentage (xFSV%) is? It is a stat, also from corsica.hockey, which is the save percentage that would be expected of a league average goalie based on the following parameters of shot attempts faced:

Shot type (Wrist shot, slap shot, deflection, etc.)
Shot distance (Adjusted4 distance from net)
Shot angle (Angle in absolute degrees from the central line normal to the goal line)
Rebounds (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was a rebound)
Rush shots (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was a rush shot)
Strength state (Boolean – Whether or not the shot was taken on the powerplay)

One thing I should be careful to point out is that this stat (xFSV% / FSV%)does include missed shots whereas basic save percentage does not (only so-called 'shots' - hitting the crossbar is not a 'save' for instance). But in the end you're still comparing across a level playing field, and by including missed shots you are increasing the sample for a more accurate picture of what kind of shots are being directed towards a goalie. In the long run it's better to use goals prevented based on the unblocked shot attempts directed at the goalie.

So anyways Elliott has been a successful goalie for the past five years. That much we agree on.

He has posted SV%s of:
94.03 (38GP)
90.68 (24GP, lockout season)
92.22 (31GP)
91.65 (46GP)
93.00 (42GP)

Adding in missed shots in order to get that aformentioned sample size, his FSV% in those respective years become:

95.74
93.45
94.63
94.06
94.97

You can see that there is a direct relationship between SV% and FSV%. That's because missed shots will average out over large samples. Neither a goalie nor skaters can use The Force to make the opponent miss the net to any significant degree. Whether you choose to use SV% or FSV% you will get the same ability to compare different goalies, the only difference is by using FSV% you have a bigger sample of shot locations / types.

So back to xFSV% - What has been the expected Fenwick save percentage in front of Elliott? If the Blues are the best defensive team in the league, he should have the best expected F.save percentage, no? More importantly, his own FSV% if a "pretty good goalie" should be at least slightly better than his expected F.save percentage, yes? The difference between the two (adj.FSV%) should be somewhat positive:

Brian Elliott

Season|x.FSV%|FSV%|adj.FSV%
2011-12|93.88 | 95.74|+1.86
2012-13|93.75 | 93.45|-0.30
2013-14|93.91 |94.63|+0.72
2014-15|94.06| 94.06|+0.00
2015-16|93.09|94.97|+1.87

Adj.FSV% is a stat that separates the goalie from the team.. What does this tell us? In 2014-15, Elliott was not elite, only average. In the lockout season, Elliott struggled, but we all know that was a bizarre season with bizarre scheduling, no training camps, and small sample sizes. But what else does this mean? In 2013-14 Elliott was strong, and in 2011-12 and 2015-16 he was carrying his team regardless of how well they played in front of him. To dismiss his two seasons where he happened to lead the NHL in SV% because of the team in front of him, would be to dismiss the level he was playing at individually. He earned those SV% titles in those two seasons.

In 2011-12 there were still eight goalies with a higher xFSV% including big names - Thomas, Rinne, Kipprusoff and Quick. He was a great goalie on a great team. That's how he posted a league-leading SV% of .940 - it was neither the team alone nor the goalie alone.

In 2015-16 there were 42 goalies with higher xFSV% than him including Karri Ramo and his own teammate Jake Allen. He was just.. really damn good last year behind a team that had injury problems all season. Lundqvist btw was 44th in terms of x.FSV%. The Blues did not play that well in front of him last year. He was just that good.

If you agree that adj.FSV% is a highly useful stat for goalie evaluation rather than team evaluation, then you have to look at where Elliott's adj.FSV% ranks over the last 5 seasons. Remember again this is simply the difference between expected and actual fenwick save percentage. It is a stat designed to filter out the team.

Among goalies with 200+ games played (Regular Season + Playoffs) from 2011-2016:

Player|Team|GP|FSv%|Sv%|xFSv%|Adj.FSv%|LDSv%|MDSv%|HDSv%
HENRIK.LUNDQVIST|NYR|361|94.61|92.42|93.18|1.43|98.63|93.26|82.88
CORY.SCHNEIDER|N.J/VAN|240|94.44|92.59|93.28|1.16|97.62|93.56|84.29
BRIAN.ELLIOTT|STL|214|94.61|92.35|93.68| 0.93 |97.47|93.66|81.71
JAROSLAV.HALAK|NYI/STL/WSH|218|94.14|91.86|93.24|0.9|97.85|92.48|83.13
JONATHAN.QUICK|L.A|364|94.43|91.97|93.57|0.86|97.79|92.48|81.71
BRADEN.HOLTBY|WSH|276|94.49|92.34|93.74|0.75|97.73|92.13|83.18
CAREY.PRICE|MTL|269|94.35|92.23|93.6|0.75|98.01|92.3|81.99
MIKE.SMITH|ARI|273|94.13|91.8|93.56|0.57|97.92|91.82|82.29
KARI.LEHTONEN|DAL|285|93.83|91.25|93.3|0.53|97.57|92.33|80.39
BEN.BISHOP|T.B/OTT|254|94.43|92.22|93.96|0.46|98.19|92.18|81.73
SEMYON.VARLAMOV|COL|272|94.07|91.72|93.61|0.46|97.71|92.9|79.89
TUUKKA.RASK|BOS|285|94.59|92.54|94.18|0.41|98.06|92.3|81.33
CRAIG.ANDERSON|OTT|256|94.01|91.9|93.61|0.4|98.33|92.62|79.37
ONDREJ.PAVELEC|WPG|256|93.31|90.68|92.92|0.39|98.15|91.94|79.48
COREY.CRAWFORD|CHI|336|93.93|91.85|93.57|0.37|98.03|92.43|81.35
ROBERTO.LUONGO|FLA/VAN|265|94.03|91.95|93.66|0.37|98.17|93.04|79.67
CAM.WARD|CAR|218|93.65|90.99|93.3|0.35|97.82|92.39|78.26
MARC-ANDRE.FLEURY|PIT|317|93.87|91.52|93.52|0.34|97.9|92.46|80.14
JONAS.HILLER|CGY/ANA|247|93.79|90.95|93.47|0.31|97.13|92.19|80.17
DEVAN.DUBNYK|MIN/ARI/EDM/NSH|260|93.99|91.55|93.69|0.3|97.67|91.91|80.46
RYAN.MILLER|VAN/BUF/STL|265|93.81|91.52|93.61|0.2|97.61|92.07|81.11
SERGEI.BOBROVSKY|CBJ/PHI|220|93.84|91.67|93.66|0.18|97.52|92.79|79.92
JIMMY.HOWARD|DET|265|93.62|91.44|93.49|0.13|97.89|92.56|79.65
ANTTI.NIEMI|DAL/S.J|311|93.91|91.35|93.86|0.05|97.76|92.03|78.39
STEVE.MASON|PHI/CBJ|240|93.64|91.46|93.76|-0.12|97.93|92.19|78.28
PEKKA.RINNE|NSH|300|93.86|91.54|94.11|-0.25|98.06|92.19|77.1

Now keep in mind Carey Price was a developing goalie in some of those seasons, he has shot up that list more recently. But ultimately, I think this shows that Elliott has been, on average, elite.

Why is he able to have such a high adj.SV%? Look at his medium danger save percentage on the same table. On shots, roughly hash-marks in, he is just a monster - that's a better medium danger save percentage than Lundqvist or Schneider. His high danger save percentage is also respectable, at 8th-best among these goalies. He actually has one of the worst low danger save percentages in this group, the only guy worse being Jonas Hiller - it's the medium and high danger areas where Elliott is driving his adj.FSV% - a sign of a great goalie.

Adj.FSV% over a decent sample is probably the best indicator of where a goalie ranks. Well Elliott ranks 3rd. Even if you consider Price's development and ascension, that would make him still likely to be the 4th best goalie in the league.

Independant of the quality of the team in front of him. You can also see guys like Rask, Bishop, Rinne and Holtby have higher xFSV% over the same time period. But having a high expected save percentage doesn't mean you produce a high save percentage. Elliott has performed better than expectations, even if those expectations are high on a good team.

If he trends towards an adj.FSV% of +0.93 next season (his 2011-2016 average) and the Flames trend towards an xFSV% of 93.58% (our average 2013-2016 - the Gio-Brodie era) that would give Elliott a FSV% of 94.51% which would end up as a SV% of roughly .920

 

[Volica]

Jesus OKG. Wall of text hits me for 999 frowny points

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

OKG, I'm not gonna pretend I know nearly as much as you in that area, and while parts of that made my head feel like it was gonna explode, I found it an extremely interesting read and will re-read it again later.

I stated previously that Elliott is the best goalie we've had since Kipper and I was really excited when we got him. Ultimately though for me, the Blues play a system that makes it easier for a goalie to thrive in than what we had with Hartley, who's system really exposes your goalie. I don't know how Gully will employ his players, but I think we will all find out just how good Elliott is. I am definitely optimistic and probably a little more so after reading your post.

Curious, how do you compare him to Bishop?

 

[Dertell]

During Hitchcock's tenure, the Blues without Elliot had a .924 5v5 save% and +0.476 FSv% ; below average numbers. That is, despite using three current 1A/1B in Miller, Halak and Allen for the most part.

Goaltenders are insanely inconsistent so who knows how Elliot will perform. However, there's no evidences systems boosted his stats.

The Blues were #20 in blocked shots.

If you look at the goalies in the Top 10 for save percentage last year, only 1 G (Braden Holtby) played on a team that finished higher than #19 in blocked shots. Less BS allows for more low-percentage shots/easy saves -> higher save percentage.

No relationship between blocked shot and 5v5 save%.

 

[Lunatik]

Advanced stats for goalies are practically fiction. Way too many assumptions are made for them to be remotely relevant

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

Curious, how do you compare him to Bishop?

No matter which sample size you look at (3 years is probably the most useful for making an educated prediction), Elliott stays ahead of Bishop in adj.FSV%:

Sample (RS+PO) | Bishop | Elliott| Price | Schneider | Lundqvist | Halak | Quick | Holtby | Lehtonen | Smith | Varlamov | Rask
2015-16|+0.74|+1.56|+1.55|+1.10|+1.05|+0.91|+0.85 |+0.92 | -0.03 | +0.08|+0.20 |-0.14
2014-16|+0.45|+0.91|+1.47|+1.04|+1.09|+0.94|+0.64|+0.95 | -0.12 | -0.25|+0.50| -0.05
2013-16|+0.50|+0.87|+1.29|+0.98|+1.17|+0.84|+0.73|+0.73 | 0.34 |0.09|+0.63|+0.09
2012-16|+0.50|+0.71|+0.86|+0.98|+1.29|+0.74|+0.68|+0.72 |0.47|0.04 |+0.51|+0.39
2011-16 |+0.46|+0.93|+0.75|+1.16|+1.43|+0.90|+0.86|+0.75 |0.53|0.57 |+0.46|+0.41
2010-16|+0.44|+0.48|+0.82|+1.27|+1.46|+0.85|+0.75|+0.78 |0.44|0.45|+0.53 |+0.39

In terms of basic puck-stopping ability you have to give the edge to Elliott. That said one thing save percentage stats won't tell you is what saves did the goalie not have to make? Where Bishop closes the gap is he is one of if not the best puck handling goalies in the world. He can get to the puck early and not only clear it but get it on the tape of a skater in neutral ice before the opponent can set up a forecheck. I don't know what statistical value that carries but I do think it has value. Elliott is not a great puck handler by my eye test.

If your have a solid, quick, puck moving D, like Giordano, Hamilton, TJ Brodie, I think Elliott will probably work out better. But I can see merit in preferring Bishop especially given the issues Wideman and Engelland add. Then again it's easy to replace Deryk Engelland with any mobile 3rd pairing guy like Justin Schultz or Brett Kulak. You just have to...suck it up and choose to do it.

Like drDT said, "Goaltenders are insanely inconsistent". If it's close, pick the one that costs less. In this case the one that costs less is also the fourth best goalie at stopping pucks in the league. Elliott is a win-win.

 

[SmellOfVictory]

Advanced stats for goalies are practically fiction. Way too many assumptions are made for them to be remotely relevant

The most relevant one is even strength save percentage, and it turns out Elliott's is really good.

 

[East Coast Icestyle]

I feel like with Elliott, we have a good idea of what we are getting. I'm more excited about Johnson. He looks really good and solid technically. I don't think he should get a huge workload but I think he will be worthy of a 60/40% split. He almost feels like Cam Talbot case.

 

[Mitts]

OvermanKingGainer, I love the effort you put into your posts and how you break it all down stat wise.

 

[StreakingRed]

I feel like with Elliott, we have a good idea of what we are getting. I'm more excited about Johnson. He looks really good and solid technically. I don't think he should get a huge workload but I think he will be worthy of a 60/40% split. He almost feels like Cam Talbot case.

Agreed. Really liking our goalie tandem this year.

 

[LastWordArmy]

Flames were wise to choose Elliott over Bishop

http://lastwordonhockey.com/2016/09/06/calgary-flames-right-acquire-brian-elliott-ben-bishop/

 

[McSuper]

June Dave Lozo ‏@davelozo
Save percentage leaders since 2011-12. I'll never get the lack of love for Brian Elliott.

Playoff success or lack of it . I aways thought he was mentally weak . Last season has me rethinking this .

 

[Lunatik]

Playoff success or lack of it . I aways thought he was mentally weak . Last season has me rethinking this .

He was never really given the ball to run with in the playoffs until this past season though. His only poor playoffs were back when he was with Ottawa in his second year in the league. His numbers in 2012-13 were actually comparable to this seasons playoffs, the only reason the Blues didn't advance was they couldn't score.