Value of: Brady Tkachuk to Bruins

[HFpapi]

How long have you been predicting Bostons demise now?

First of all, if you're talking to me directly, literally last season when Bergeron and Krejci retired is the first time I ever mentioned anything negative about the Bruins future. Not sure if you think this is some sort of "gotcha" like I've been saying this for 10 years. Some have been predicting the Bruins downfall for a long time, yes. Not I.

Second; funny that you're a Wings fan because I think the situation with Boston is perfectly analogous.

A lot of people thought the Wings were headed for a long stay in the basement as the Stevie Y, Fedorov, Shanahan, Hasek, Chelios, era came to a close but then Lidstrom decided he was superhuman and didn't need to age and Datsyuk and Zetterberg rather unexpectedly became superstars.

The Wings extended their dominance far longer than most expected and I'm sure Wings fans had a lot of "you were saying?" feelings around 2008. But, as you very well know now, eventually what goes up does indeed come down. How many years out of the playoffs now for you?

You don't continue to replace Yzerman and Fedorov with Datsyuk and Zetterberg forever and when your 20 year franchise legend and captain (Lidstrom/Bergeron) does eventually retire, they are gone for good.

The Bruins also are not destined to be good forever.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Sens may not be interested in the picks themselves, but they may be interested in the value of the picks that can be used to acquire roster players from other teams. Acquiring the picks allows them to wait for the right player to become available, so they get to pick roster pieces from the entire league instead of whatever Boston can offer.

Sens are interested in Brady Tkachuk more than anything they can get from the Bruins, either directly or parlaying their assets into something else.

Competent management, coaching, scouting. Ottawa at least has fired their incompetement management but still unproven. They're still inheriting some poor/unlucky decisions like Norris' deal, chykrin might want out etc.

You've got it wrong. Ottawa is not particularly interested in extending Chychrun (at least not at the # he will want & get). The ex-GM made a stupid mistake that the current one isn't going to double down on, and that's why he'll be traded. But he pretty much called the press to say he doesn't want to get traded.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Sens are interested in Brady Tkachuk more than anything they can get from the Bruins, either directly or parlaying their assets into something else.

You've got it wrong. Ottawa is not particularly interested in extending Chychrun (at least not at the # he will want & get). The ex-GM made a stupid mistake that the current one isn't going to double down on, and that's why he'll be traded. But he pretty much called the press to say he doesn't want to get traded.

Ya im just saying the old GM wasted assets on him.

 

[dgibb10]

Ok, I’ll try to get us back on track and actually propose what Tkachuk may be worth. Yes, he is worth more than Meier, but adding to Meier deal is not a bad idea. Meier deal was a 1st, 2nd, and some spare parts with a total value of let’s say a 2nd (for the sake of the discussion). So for Tkachuk’s value, given his physical play and contract, here is what I think he is worth.
Two first round picks or equivalent
A good prospect (Lysell kind of prospect from B’s pov)
Solid roster player (Debrusk level again from B’s pov)
What does everybody think?

Shakir was not a spare part but you're absolutely right.

1st+2nd+Shakir was the core

Johnsson (cap dump), Zetterlund, Okhotiuk, 7th for 5th, Hattaka evens out approximately

1st+1st+quality prospect should be what Tkachuk gets

 

[dgibb10]

They matter to most GMs in the league, so that would affect value.

Those GMs may be wrong, but you are wrong if you don't think teams put major value on top 6 players who also fight/agitate/hit etc.

We've seen teams value that over and over again.

It has value sure.

But again it's not gonna make the difference of the Meier package

1st+2nd+quality prospect, to 1st+1st+stud young roster player+elite prospect.

 

[Menzinger]

Bruins don't have enough bluechip futures nor the available bluechip talent already in the roster (that they'd be willing to move) to get a deal done.

If he was put on the market 10+ teams would have better packages.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Shakir was not a spare part but you're absolutely right.

1st+2nd+Shakir was the core

Johnsson (cap dump), Zetterlund, Okhotiuk, 7th for 5th, Hattaka evens out approximately

1st+1st+quality prospect should be what Tkachuk gets

Ok, you're absolutely right. And that is why he won't be traded.

Pack it up!

 

[dgibb10]

Ok, you're absolutely right. And that is why he won't be traded.

Pack it up!

When have I ever stated I think he'll be traded?

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

When have I ever stated I think he'll be traded?

So, let me get this straight - if you ignore his massive physical edge, ignore his massively more favourable contract status, ignore the fact that he is not available for trade, ignore the fact that he is not essentially required to be dealt within the next 3 months, and pretend that he could very easily sign a 1yr, $10mil contract next season and walk to UFA.... then Tkachuk has slightly more value than Meier?

You know, you might be onto something!

 

[nbwingsfan]

First of all, if you're talking to me directly, literally last season when Bergeron and Krejci retired is the first time I ever mentioned anything negative about the Bruins future. Not sure if you think this is some sort of "gotcha" like I've been saying this for 10 years. Some have been predicting the Bruins downfall for a long time, yes. Not I.

Second; funny that you're a Wings fan because I think the situation with Boston is perfectly analogous.

A lot of people thought the Wings were headed for a long stay in the basement as the Stevie Y, Fedorov, Shanahan, Hasek, Chelios, era came to a close but then Lidstrom decided he was superhuman and didn't need to age and Datsyuk and Zetterberg rather unexpectedly became superstars.

The Wings extended their dominance far longer than most expected and I'm sure Wings fans had a lot of "you were saying?" feelings around 2008. But, as you very well know now, eventually what goes up does indeed come down. How many years out of the playoffs now for you?

You don't continue to replace Yzerman and Fedorov with Datsyuk and Zetterberg forever and when your 20 year franchise legend and captain (Lidstrom/Bergeron) does eventually retire, they are gone for good.

The Bruins also are not destined to be good forever.

No they won’t be good forever but as long as they have Pastrnak, Lindholm, McAvoy, and now Swayman they’re not going to be basement dwellers in two years

 

[dgibb10]

So, let me get this straight - if you ignore his massive physical edge, ignore his massively more favourable contract status, ignore the fact that he is not available for trade, ignore the fact that he is not essentially required to be dealt within the next 3 months, and pretend that he could very easily sign a 1yr, $10mil contract next season and walk to UFA.... then Tkachuk has slightly more value than Meier?

You know, you might be onto something!

Physical edge: sure (Hits don't win hockey games tho)
Contract status: Again meier will have a lower cap burden in the 4 years following his trade than tkachuk would. Using common sense you would know that a Meier extension wouldn't get up to 10 mill (the amount it would have to be to even it out).
Defensively: edge goes to Meier
Offensive production: identical
Age: edge goes to tkachuk.

There are 2 scenarios:

Scenario 1: Ottawa is trying to trade Tkachuk/he requests a trade: The price is the price based on historical comparables.

Scenario 2: Ottawa is not trying to trade Tkachuk: Nobody calls, nobody makes offers, he is not traded

His value is his value.

So, let me get this straight - if you ignore his massive physical edge, ignore his massively more favourable contract status, ignore the fact that he is not available for trade, ignore the fact that he is not essentially required to be dealt within the next 3 months, and pretend that he could very easily sign a 1yr, $10mil contract next season and walk to UFA.... then Tkachuk has slightly more value than Meier?

You know, you might be onto something!

Overall contract burden:
Meier: 9 years, average AAV, 8.15 mill
Tkachuk: 4 years, average AAV 8.2 million

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Contract status: Again meier will have a lower cap burden in the 4 years following his trade than tkachuk would. Using common sense you would know that a Meier extension wouldn't get up to 10 mill (the amount it would have to be to even it out).

It's hilarious that you still don't understand this.

MEIER WAS ELIGIBLE TO SIGN A $10M QO. IF HE WAS NOT OFFERED A 1YR, $10M DEAL, HE WOULD HAVE BEEN A FREE AGENT.

Overall contract burden:
Meier: 9 years, average AAV, 8.15 mill
Tkachuk: 4 years, average AAV 8.2 million

Including this is literally exactly as relevant as including Meier's post-trade production.

I'm not even going to touch the rest of the silliness as its been done a dozen times. If you want to cling to Meier as a historical comparable, well, have at it slugger. It's really funny to watch.

 

[dgibb10]

It's hilarious that you still don't understand this.

MEIER WAS ELIGIBLE TO SIGN A $10M QO. IF HE WAS NOT OFFERED A 1YR, $10M DEAL, HE WOULD HAVE BEEN A FREE AGENT.


Including this is literally exactly as relevant as including Meier's post-trade production.

I'm not even going to touch the rest of the silliness as its been done a dozen times. If you want to cling to Meier as a historical comparable, well, have at it slugger. It's really funny to watch.

You can use the eichel comp if you want for star with term, but it doesn't favour tkachuk either.

1st, 2nd, prospect, roster player for Eichel+3rd.

In tkachuks favour: cheaper, healthier, hits
in eichels favour: significantly more valuable position, more term, significantly better player

So you start from the eichel price and go down from there.

Or you can use the Matthew Tkachuk comp but frankly Matthew was twice as valuable considering he's significantly better, and had an 8 year deal in place compared to 4

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

You can use the eichel comp if you want for star with term, but it doesn't favour tkachuk either.

1st, 2nd, prospect, roster player for Eichel+3rd.

In tkachuks favour: cheaper, healthier, hits
in eichels favour: significantly more valuable position, more term, significantly better player

So you start from the eichel price and go down from there.

Or you can use the Matthew Tkachuk comp but frankly Matthew was twice as valuable considering he's significantly better, and had an 8 year deal in place compared to 4

Doesnt matter, he's not being dealt. I was just pointing out how brutal your argument is because its fun and you kept on insisting upon it despite all reason. Nice to see you finally bail on it. Have a good one

 

[dgibb10]

Doesnt matter, he's not being dealt. I'm just pointing out how brutal your arguments are because its fun. Nice to see you finally bail on it. Have a good one

You can get upset with the comp if you want, but it remains the best one:

Points in favour of Meier:
-Cheaper 1 year (to go all in)
-better defensive results
-If signed you get significantly more term control (9 years at 8.15 overall AAV vs 4 at 8.2 for tkachuk)

Points in favour of Tkachuk
-younger
-more of a goon
-more certainty with 4 years guaranteed compared to 2

You can again argue about what matters more or how much, but the differences aren't going to take you from the Meier package to the biggest package we've seen in decades.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

You can get upset with the comp if you want, but it remains the best one:

Points in favour of Meier:
-Cheaper 1 year (to go all in)
-better defensive results
-If signed you get significantly more term control (9 years at 8.15 overall AAV vs 4 at 8.2 for tkachuk)

Points in favour of Tkachuk
-younger
-more of a goon
-more certainty with 4 years guaranteed compared to 2

You can again argue about what matters more or how much, but the differences aren't going to take you from the Meier package to the biggest package we've seen in decades.

Did I say upset? I said it's really funny. And I promise you I'm not the only one having a laugh. That said, while it's still pretty funny, it kinda feels like I'm kicking a puppy at this point.

As I said before, have a good one.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Brady is a wet dream for Bruins fans. Bruins don't have anything compelling to trade for Brady.

 

[SML2]

You just cannot trade a guy like Tkachuk to a division rival.

 

[HabsQC]

"Did Montreal really pass on him" Yes Bergevin did and thank god he's not here anymore. And we deeply regret that selection. At least Carolina took Kotkaniemi off our hands.

BUT I won't let a B's fan tell us anything about passing on players after the Debrusk-Senyshyn-Zboril picks

 

[Breakers]

It’s so weird

Boston is this really well run organization
But I don’t think anybody would value their assets except pastrnak as any package to get him.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Brady Tkachuk was hard to project. He never produced top-line offensive numbers coming into his draft year. But then again, neither did KK. Habs were deadset on a C and reached on KK rather than selecting best player available.

 

[Silky Johnson]

How did it seem like Tkachuk was "begging" to be a bruin?

The OP was running his own dialog track in his mind...

 

[Silky Johnson]

Player B: 57 games 31 goals 51 points, 112 hits.

Meier's production AFTER the trade has no bearing to his value when he was actually traded


Well again, Meier in the 2 years pre trade had IDENTICAL production to what tkachuk has the last 2 years.

Tkachuk provides pest, Meier played much better defense

Put it in a poll then.

But you know the answer.

 

[DKH]

Good to hear Brady a Boston sports fan - he’s kind of a dick on the ice so he’s got a lot in common with Boston fans

Last night I had bunch of Rangers fans around me - all good well behaved but you think Bruins fans could let them just watch the game ? Of course not

The OP was running his own dialog track in his mind...

um you would be surprised how fast Brady would be in Boston if could

I’m a Charlestown guy like the Tkachuks are

 

[Golden_Jet]

Physical edge: sure (Hits don't win hockey games tho)
Contract status: Again meier will have a lower cap burden in the 4 years following his trade than tkachuk would. Using common sense you would know that a Meier extension wouldn't get up to 10 mill (the amount it would have to be to even it out).
Defensively: edge goes to Meier
Offensive production: identical
Age: edge goes to tkachuk.

There are 2 scenarios:

Scenario 1: Ottawa is trying to trade Tkachuk/he requests a trade: The price is the price based on historical comparables.

Scenario 2: Ottawa is not trying to trade Tkachuk: Nobody calls, nobody makes offers, he is not traded

His value is his value.



Overall contract burden:
Meier: 9 years, average AAV, 8.15 mill
Tkachuk: 4 years, average AAV 8.2 million

Meier signed a 8 x 8.8.
Can’t sign a 9 year.
His last year in SJ was for 10 million, you can’t say NJ paid 3 million for 21 games and count that as a full year and then amortize that over 2 contracts.
He only played a 1/4 year not a full year.

Good thing you aren’t a Statistician for a living.

Excellent another day of made up funny entertainment

Still went waiting for your poll on the 2 players.