Player Discussion Bobby Ryan Part VI

[Xspyrit]

oh I'm well aware of the ryan conditioning criticism

5 posters repeating **** over and over doesn't make it true. There's a lot of **** that gets repeated ad nauseum here that is pretty far from reality.

as I said....go ahead and post something where someone with the team comments on his conditioning. Google bobby ryan conditioning. that's a good place to start.

if bobby ryan, a 7.5 M pro athlete, had non injury related conditioning issues, there'd would be real information about it on the internet. find it. or as I said stop flapping about it.

Speaking of reality, you might be interested in a post I have made in the trade rumors thread. Here it is :

I'm honestly super happy for Noesen. His career was up in the air for years with all of his chronic injury issues, got waived by Anaheim, and has finally got to a point where he not only has had enough luck that his injuries weren't career-threatening, but that he's also found a permanent home and is making the most of it.

People that still bring up that trade in a "woulda coulda shoulda / if only" context are pessimists of the highest order. It happened. It was almost FIVE YEARS AGO. ****ing get over it, already. We lost a trade. We've lot trades before. We will lose trades again at some point in the future. It is inevitable.

Dwelling on it for FIVE YEARS is just about the most unhealthy way to go about being a fan of this team, as far as I'm concerned. It must be absolutely crippling from a mental health perspective. I pity anyone who genuinely holds a grudge for that long - the only person they are hurting is themselves.

The thing is... Did we even "lost" that trade in reality? If you know me, you know that I don't care much about "popular opinions", but I prefer to look at fact and results, particularly in hockey, which is a business of results.

When you think of it, this deal was fantastic for Ottawa when it happened. Acquiring a young (25 y/o) super talented forward (was drafted 2nd OA behind Crosby for a reason) signed 2 more years at a cheap 5.1 cap hit ($5,562,500 salary each year) was a major coup. Ryan peaked early from 2008-09 to 2010-11 scoring at over a 0.80 PPG. He had 2 down years following that but he was still around 0.70 PPG.

Yes, Ottawa gave good assets to make it happen (of course, you have to give to get) but when you think of it, that package was not that much more valuable than what Brassard just returned. Silfverberg was 23 y/o and scored at 0.4 PPG in his first NA season in Ottawa but didn't have a much higher ceiling (maybe 2nd liner). Ottawa also gave up a supposedly mid/late 1st first round pick in a weak draft and a prospect who had 2 years of development ruined by injuries and was very unlikely to actually make it as his career was in jeopardy.

Now, trades are going to be judged in hindsight, so let's do that.

- Noesen played 2 games with the Ducks, then got waived. What he does after that is irrelevant for Anaheim.

- The first round pick ended up higher than expected as the Sens had a disappointing 2013-14 season (after a great run in 2012-13), but it doesn't look like the Ducks made a great coup by drafting Nick Ritchie. Sure, he's "still young at 22 y/o" but I don't see him becoming a top-6 forward in this league. Too much talent coming up every year. He's been producing at a 26 pts pace per 82 games so far in the NHL. At that age, Ryan was already a +60 pts player. Alex Chiasson had better numbers in his first 2 years.

Nick Ritchie (Games, Goals, Assists, Points. 2nd line is "Per Game")

Career			NHL	168	21	32	53

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

Career			NHL	168		0.13	0.19	0.32

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

- Silfverberg is a nice player and of course I would have loved him to never leave the Sens (my biased preference for Swedish players). He now has 1 year left on his contract and will get a significant raise on his next deal. He will eventually become overpaid as well in the eyes of fans. But maybe not because he doesn't look like he produces well enough to get paid.

Jakob Silfverberg (Games, Goals, Assists, Points. 2nd line is "Per Game")

5 yrs		ANA	NHL	353	79	98	177

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

5 yrs		ANA	NHL	353	0.22	0.28	0.50

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

Basically, after 5 years, Silfverberg has been producing at a 41 pts pace with the Ducks... Ryan is at a 43 pts pace this season and it's horrible according to most. LET THAT SINK IN lol. This season, he is at a 38 pts pace DESPITE 18:17 of TOI/GP and 2:06 of PP TOI/GP


And now Bobby Ryan (Games, Goals, Assists, Points. 2nd line is "Per Game")

5 yrs		OTT	NHL	333	83	122	205

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

5 yrs		OTT	NHL	333	0.25	0.37	0.62

[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

Despite 2 consecutive injury-plagued seasons, he is still at a 51 pts pace with Ottawa.

Now Ottawa hasn't been lucky. If Ryan was able to remain healthy, he would still be producing around 55-65 pts per season (see the link at the bottom of this post), which would make this trade a homerun for Ottawa.

The question is how long will it take for Silfverberg and Ritchie to actually outscore Ryan? 6 years? 7 years? lol it's surely taking very long in a trade that "we lost badly"

But no it's true, I am wrong, they are outscoring Ryan :

524 games, 100 goals, 130 assists, 230 points (added the 2 games Noesen played for the Ducks)

vs

333 games, 83 goals, 122 assists, 205 points

It just took a lot more games and 2 rosters spots instead of one lol

 

[Stylizer1]

oh I'm well aware of the ryan conditioning criticism

5 posters repeating **** over and over doesn't make it true. There's a lot of **** that gets repeated ad nauseum here that is pretty far from reality.

as I said....go ahead and post something where someone with the team comments on his conditioning. Google

oh I'm well aware of the ryan conditioning criticism

5 posters repeating **** over and over doesn't make it true. There's a lot of **** that gets repeated ad nauseum here that is pretty far from reality.

as I said....go ahead and post something where someone with the team comments on his conditioning. Google bobby ryan conditioning. that's a good place to start.

if bobby ryan, a 7.5 M pro athlete, had non injury related conditioning issues, there'd would be real information about it on the internet. find it. or as I said stop flapping about it.

. that's a good place to start.

if bobby ryan, a 7.5 M pro athlete, had non injury related conditioning issues, there'd would be real information about it on the internet. find it. or as I said stop flapping about it.

I don't understand you. Fans can clearly see him lug around on the ice and float. Why do I need someone on the team to reaffirm that observation? Oh, you mean like when Boucher says he is playing great when he actually wasn't last year? You want me to find a quote of a coach ripping into a player even though they are on thin ice and trying to keep their jobs on a poor team? Again, IN MY OPINION as well as others here believe he is slow and out of shape.

What is your opinion of Ryan's play exactly? Not the injuries but his play?

 

[JungleBeat]

Ryan is definitely a lazy and out of shape player. One rush up the ice and he’s basically useless the rest of the shift. Bobby’s going to turn 31 this year and it’s only going to go down hill.

 

[Punchbowl]

- Noesen played 2 games with the Ducks, then got waived. What he does after that is irrelevant for Anaheim.

I'm not going to evaluate the whole of your post because I'm not entirely sure how I feel about the Ryan deal, but two points I think are worth considering:

1. Playoff points -- a chunk of Silfverberg's value for the Ducks has come from how productive he has been in the post-season (where he's posted first line numbers)

2. Noesen's career should be considered even after he was waived because we still traded away our opportunity to retain him in the deal for Ryan.

Just two points I wanted to add.

Otherwise, thanks for the write-up! Something to think about.

 

[JD1]

I don't understand you. Fans can clearly see him lug around on the ice and float. Why do I need someone on the team to reaffirm that observation? Oh, you mean like when Boucher says he is playing great when he actually wasn't last year? You want me to find a quote of a coach ripping into a player even though they are on thin ice and trying to keep their jobs on a poor team? Again, IN MY OPINION as well as others here believe he is slow and out of shape.

What is your opinion of Ryan's play exactly? Not the injuries but his play?

my opinion is it is easier to repeat what is frequently said in these threads than it is to have an opinion.

 

[Stylizer1]

my opinion is it is easier to repeat what is frequently said in these threads than it is to have an opinion.

That's not what I asked. I want to know your opinion of Bobby Ryan's play since apparently I am unable to have my own opinion and just piggy back on others.

 

[JD1]

That's not what I asked. I want to know your opinion of Bobby Ryan's play since apparently I am unable to have my own opinion and just piggy back on others.

my thoughts on Ryan? he had some injury plagued seasons that compromised his ability to train in the summer. He came into camp this year in great shape by all accounts. He isn't slow but he isn't quick. Quick versus slow/fast are different. He gives what he has and does a lot of little things far more right than most of our guys. Worth the 7.5? No. Not anymore. he has no shot left but hopefully his hands improve and his shot along with it And he is criticized at the same level here as Ceci meaning it isn't all warranted

 

[Tuna99]

my thoughts on Ryan? he had some injury plagued seasons that compromised his ability to train in the summer. He came into camp this year in great shape by all accounts. He isn't slow but he isn't quick. Quick versus slow/fast are different. He gives what he has and does a lot of little things far more right than most of our guys. Worth the 7.5? No. Not anymore. he has no shot left but hopefully his hands improve and his shot along with it And he is criticized at the same level here as Ceci meaning it isn't all warranted

For me it’s Ryans inability to win a board battle or any puck battles, his desire level to get himself pucks is horrid. If Austen Mathews puck hunger is 100%, Bobby Ryan’s puck hunger is 2%.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Ryan has come around in a big way since Boucher's first day on the job.

No one here can reasonably say his play this season has been poor. He's been very unlucky with injuries but when he's playing he's been solid this year.

I'm not ready to throw in the towel in him.

 

[JD1]

Ryan has come around in a big way since Boucher's first day on the job.

No one here can reasonably say his play this season has been poor. He's been very unlucky with injuries but when he's playing he's been solid this year.

I'm not ready to throw in the towel in him.

a lot of what gets posted here isn't particularly reasonable

 

[Sensung]

Ryan has come around in a big way since Boucher's first day on the job.

No one here can reasonably say his play this season has been poor. He's been very unlucky with injuries but when he's playing he's been solid this year.

I'm not ready to throw in the towel in him.

Agreed.

Add in the fact he was good in the playoffs and I don't see why a sub cap team is worried about his contract.

 

[Langdon Alger]

Ryan has come around in a big way since Boucher's first day on the job.

No one here can reasonably say his play this season has been poor. He's been very unlucky with injuries but when he's playing he's been solid this year.

I'm not ready to throw in the towel in him.

If you have a chance to move him, you do it. That contract does not help us going forward.

 

[Sensung]

If you have a chance to move him, you do it. That contract does not help us going forward.

The contract is mot a problem for any team not running at the cap.

He's still a quality NHLer. Just overpaid and unlucky with injuries.

 

[BonkTastic]

Ryan has come around in a big way since Boucher's first day on the job.

No one here can reasonably say his play this season has been poor. He's been very unlucky with injuries but when he's playing he's been solid this year.

I'm not ready to throw in the towel in him.

When Ryan is healthy, he's a good player. Is he a $7.whatever mil guy? Clearly no. But he's good... when healthy. He's a top-6 winger. An elite top-6 guy? Maybe on his best day. Not on an average day. But he's in that range.

Here's my thing about the people who INSIST that we need to get rid of Ryan's contract "at almost any cost":

1) In this hypothetical scenario, are we just buying him out? Are we trading him at 50% retention? Let's see what that looks like...

2) Ok, first, what is he making. $7.25 mil in cap hit, $7.5mil/year in actual salary for the last 4 years. What does that contract look like? It's $5.5 mil salary with a $2 mil signing bonus each year (the contract was slightly back-loaded). That signing bonus is NOT included in any buyouts or salary retention. He is owed, in cash: $22mil in salary over the next 4 years, plus $8mil in signing bonus money, for a total of $30mil. That's the maximum we owe him, assuming he plays out his 4 years here.

3) let's look at a hypothetical buyout scenario. It looks like this:
*2018/19 - Buyout cost: $1.833mil + $2mil signing bonus = $3.833mil in salary. Cap hit: $3.583 mil
*2019/20 - Buyout cost: $1.833mil + $2mil signing bonus = $3.833mil in salary. Cap hit: $3.583 mil
*2020/21 - Buyout cost: $1.833mil + $2mil signing bonus = $3.833mil in salary. Cap hit: $3.583 mil
*2021/22 - Buyout cost: $1.833mil + $2mil signing bonus = $3.833mil in salary. Cap hit: $3.583 mil
*2022/23 - Buyout cost: $1.833mil = $1.833mil in salary. Cap hit: $1.833mil
*2023/24 - Buyout cost: $1.833mil = $1.833mil in salary. Cap hit: $1.833mil
*2024/25 - Buyout cost: $1.833mil = $1.833mil in salary. Cap hit: $1.833mil
*2025/26 - Buyout cost: $1.833mil = $1.833mil in salary. Cap hit: $1.833mil

... that's a lot of money. If we buy him out, we owe him $22.664mil over 8 years. We save... $7.336 mil over EIGHT years. We save... what is that, $0.917mil per year. $900k? We save $900k per year to NOT have a top 6 winger.

OK, so what if, even though the buyout period covers 8 years of cap hit and salary requirements... let's just look at the 4 years we wouldn't have Ryan. We're hypothetically buying out Bobby Ryan. We are saving $7.336 in actual salary over 4 years, or $1.834/year. Now we need to replace Ryan with another top-6 winger... what kind of Magical Christmas Land sweetheart deal are we going to get a top-6 winger for 4 years for $1.834mil/year? It's not going to happen. Our replacement will cost WAY more than that, and we will end up LOSING money in the aggregate. Buy out Ryan, sign someone to replace him... we're even worse off financially than we were before.

That math is thoroughly stupid. It makes no sense whatsoever to buy him out. None. We save almost no money.

4) OK, so a buyout is a bad idea. What about retaining 50% in a trade? What does that math look like? We have to remember that the bonus money isn't retainable - the team that takes him on owes him the full bonus money.
We'll also remember Ryan's contract structure - Ryan is owed $22mil over the next 4 years + $8 in bonus money.
If we cover 50%, we owe $11mil in salary over the next 4 years. Whoever we trade him to owes him the remainder $11mil + $8mil in bonuses.

Well... that at least looks better. We go from owing $30mil to owing $11mil. Pretty decent. But it means the team acquiring him owes $19mil, or $4.25mil/year. Is he worth that much? If he's healthy, sure. I think so. The cap hit is fair for a player of his caliber, IMO. That's definitely at, or even slightly below market value for a top-6 winger in UFA. The hesitancy of another team taking on that kind of deal is obviously surround the guy's health.

Here's the thing though - If we do this, we're out $11mil over 4 years, or $2.75mil a year. Are we replacing Ryan with a comparable top-6 winger? Let's say we replace him through UFA. What is a top-6 winger go for in UFA? Let's set the floor at roughly $4mil. So now we're paying a new top-6 guy $4mil a year, plus we're still paying Ryan $2.75mil per year... so we're still paying "a top-6 winger" $6.75mil in the aggregate. That's almost what Ryan is making. And that's probably a BEST CASE SCENARIO, where we don't have to give up ANY assets in order to convince another team to take Ryan, which I don't think we can do, so now you're adding in lost assets to go from paying a top-6 winger $7.25mil/year to $6.75mil a year. Honestly, the salary difference seems negligible considering we'd be losing assets just to get Ryan out of the door.


"BUT WAIT", I hear you ask, "BonkTastic! We are going to replace him from within because we are rebuilding"! Well... if we are rebuilding, then why does his salary matter at all? We'll be nowhere near the cap in a hypothetical rebuild scenario. Why spend assets to move him to free up cap space we aren't going to use in the first place? Seems dumb.


... so yeah. Long post, but it kind of outlines why I'm hesitant to move Ryan right now, considering his value is at an all time low. He's a SUNK COST right now. Honestly, if we have any desire to move the guy, I actually think the best course of action is to keep him for a year and hope that he can stay healthy enough to play ~70ish games and find a bit of his scoring touch again. If he can get back to 20g/30a, then moving him will be less of a herculean task, and the process of doing so won't completely bone us up and down.

 

[Xspyrit]

Agreed.

Add in the fact he was good in the playoffs and I don't see why a sub cap team is worried about his contract.

If I was another team, I would exploit the forever Sens desire of cuting costs and acquire Ryan

Example if I’m Calgary, I offer Brouwer (2 x 4.5), Frolik (2 x 4.3, but 7 M$ owed) and a 5th round pick for Ryan (4 x 7.25) and Pittsburgh 3rd in 2020

It’s just an example but I’ll try to find more later

 

[Hutz]

Bobby Ryan is worth more than 1.25 million more than Milan Lucic, there I said it.

 

[Xspyrit]

I just read Bonk's post. Thank you very much for explaining these things. I have seen things like "retain Ryan at 50% and send a 1st round pick with him to get rid of his contract!". lol the team getting him would get Ryan at 4 years x 3.625 M$ AND a first round pick

Keep Ryan for now until we can replace him, he's easily our 4th best forward right now. Another year and his contract will be easier to move.

OR... find a forward with a substantial cap hit but a decreasing salary (Ryan, 4 years left, 30 M$ owed)

Corey Perry, 8.625 M$ cap hit, 3 years left, 24 M$ owed
Zach Parise, 7,53 M$ cap hit, 7 years left, 36 M$ owed
Patrick Marleau, 6.25 M$ cap hit, 2 years left, 10.25 M$ owed
Brandon Saad, 6.0 M$ cap hit, 3 years left, 20 M$ owed
David Backes, 6.0 M$ cap hit, 3 years left, 14 M$ owed
Jordan Staal, 6.0 M$ cap hit, 5 years left, 30.0 M$ owed
Loui Eriksson, 6.0 M$ cap hit, 4 years left, 20.0 M$ owed
Milan Lucic, 6.0 M$ cap hit, 5 years left, 26.0 M$ owed
Kyle Okposo, 6.0 M$ cap hit, 5 years left, 26.0 M$ owed
Dustin Brown, 5.875 M$ cap hit, 4 years left, 19.0 M$ owed
Brandon Dubinsky, 5.85 M$ cap hit, 3 years left, 17.55 M$ owed
Ryan Callahan, 5.8 M$ cap hit, 2 years left, 9.4 M$ owed
Alexander Steen, 5.75 cap hit, 3 years left, 16.0 M$ owed
Travis Zajac, 5.75 cap hit, 3 years left, 18.0 M$ owed
Jason Pominville, 5.6 cap hit, 1 year left, 5.0 M$ owed
Andrew Ladd, 5.5 cap hit, 5 years left, 23.0 M$ owed
Nick Foligno, 5.5 M$ cap hit, 3 years left, 16.5 M$ owed
Tomas Tatar, 5.3 M$ cap hit, 3 years left, 15.2 M$ owed
Frans Nielsen, 5.25 M$ cap hit, 4 years left, 19.5 M$ owed
Matt Moulson, 5.0 M$ cap hit, 1 year left, 3.0 M$ owed
Martin Hanzal, 4.75 M$ cap hit, 2 years left, 9.0 M$ owed
Carl Soderberg, 4.75 M$ cap hit, 2 years left, 9.0 M$ owed
Jori Lehtera, 4.7 M$ cap hit, 1 year left, 5.0 M$ owed
Tyler Ennis, 4.6 M$ cap hit, 1 year left, 3.65 M$ owed
Artem Anisimov, 4.55 M$ cap hit, 3 years left, 12.0 M$ owed
Troy Brouwer, 4.5 M$ cap hit, 2 years left, 9.0 M$ owed
Alex Killorn, 4.45 M$ cap hit, 5 years left, 22.25 M$ owed
Brandon Sutter, 4.375 M$ cap hit, 3 years left, 13.375 M$ owed
Michael Frolik, 4.3 M$ cap hit, 2 years left, 7.0 M$ owed
Justin Abdelkader, 4.25 M$ cap hit, 5 years left, 19.25 M$ owed
Nick Bonino, 4.1 M$ cap hit, 3 years left, 12.3 M$ owed
Nick Bjugstad, 4.1 M$ cap hit, 3 years left, 14.55 M$ owed
Mikkel Boedker, 4.0 M$ cap hit, 2 years left, 6.0 M$ owed
Andrew Shaw, 3.9 M$ cap hit, 4 years left, 12.9 M$ owed
Cody Eakin, 3.85 M$ cap hit, 2 years left, 7.7 M$ owed
Patrik Berglund, 3.85 M$ cap hit, 4 years left, 14.55 M$ owed
Darren Helm, 3.85 M$ cap hit, 3 years left, 9.75 M$ owed
Matt Beleskey, 3.8 M$ cap hit, 2 years left, 7.0 M$ owed
etc.

In some cases, Ottawa might have to give an asset because money is valuable for every team, even if some teams don't have a problem spending when necessary

Actually, Jackets would be wise to do a Ryan for Foligno swipe as they have cap space. Get more scoring potential

I think Islanders would do a Ryan for Ladd without even thinking.

One that would make a lot of sense is Nielsen for Ryan. Wings get a better, 2-3 years younger player. Sens save 11 M$ in 4 years and a stop gap center. I don't know what Wings plans are though.

If I was the Habs, I would do Shaw for Ryan in a heartbeat too. They have cap space and a ton of money. Lack offensive skill.

There's many many options, other (smaller) cap dumps could be included to make it work too. And there's also D-men I haven't listed.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Bobby Ryan is worth more than 1.25 million more than Milan Lucic, there I said it.

I hope that buffoon never puts on a Sens jersey.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

I hope that buffoon never puts on a Sens jersey.

That UFA signing last summer looks so bad now. And the contract is even worse

 

[Langdon Alger]

Bobby Ryan is worth more than 1.25 million more than Milan Lucic, there I said it.

If Homer gets killed in the ring tonight it will be because of your negative attitude, there I said it.

 

[bert]

Bobby Ryan isn't a great skater or defensive player no one is arguing that. However he has elite offensive instincts and skill. He is a big body presence and has the ability to play with elite players and create out of nothing. It's incredible to me so many people can't identify these traits that watch so much hockey. Clearly we want him to be more consistent and the injuries suck but he's been effective when in the lineup. The sens seriously lack skill up front and any type of down low game. If you don't think they're a better team with him than without then you're watching the wrong sport. Sens lack skill, he has skill I think he's in better shape now than before but the injuries will hurt his timing.

 

[krapsik]

Its almost like Sens fans pays his salary from own pocket. Why everyone wants him gone ? Its Melnyks money. Why do you think this money would be used on something better ?

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

That UFA signing last summer looks so bad now. And the contract is even worse

No kidding. That whole scenario blew up in their faces. Hall looks like a superstar and they end up with an awful Lucic.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Bobby Ryan isn't a great skater or defensive player no one is arguing that. However he has elite offensive instincts and skill. He is a big body presence and has the ability to play with elite players and create out of nothing. It's incredible to me so many people can't identify these traits that watch so much hockey. Clearly we want him to be more consistent and the injuries suck but he's been effective when in the lineup. The sens seriously lack skill up front and any type of down low game. If you don't think they're a better team with him than without then you're watching the wrong sport. Sens lack skill, he has skill I think he's in better shape now than before but the injuries will hurt his timing.

You are right. Caveat if their plan is to strip it down, he might as well go to; if possible. Other than that I like Ryan .. he's payed too much , but as you say , he is one of the few players with skill and IQ up front.. Moving Ryan to save $ to be able to resign Karlsson, Stone, Duchene could make sense.. Right now the Sens are in a bit of a mess because they never expected to be in this position.

 

[Xspyrit]

I think the Sens could afford Ryan for 2018-19 but not after that when Karlsson and Duchene (upcoming) extensions kick in

Now the focus should be to get rid of Burrows, Gaborik, Smith and Condon (or Anderson) contracts; all great Dorion extensions

After next season, Ryan will have only 3 years left and the cap could be close to 85 M$, which would make his cap hit only 8.5% of a team’s cap. If Ryan could avoid injuries next season, then he would become easy to move.

Anyway, that’s how I would manage it; get rid of the 4 contracts I mentioned earlier first

Note : Ryan is currently 132nd in PPG among the 363 forwards who played 41 games and more, despite his injury struggles. On average that’s #4-5 forward numbers on the average team

Sure he’s overpaid but he is still a +5 M$ forward. If you retain something like 2 M$ on his salary, I’m sure a team would take a flyer on him, and even give up assets to get him. Sens would have 1 top-6 forward less

Fun note : Lazar is 353rd on that list and Paajarvi is 360th. Not sure why so many Sens fans want to re-sign him