Blues Trade Proposals Part XXVII ‎

[Dbrownss]

You can't make them say whatever you want. No amount of analytics will ever say, for example, that Paajarvi's wraparound shot is the most dangerous goal-scoring move in the NHL. However, in a lot of cases you can skew the truth using analytics by not giving the complete story. For instance, try to show that a heavily sheltered player is better than one who gets the tough minutes by ignoring QoC and Zone starts. Its the old saying, "Lies, damn lies, and statistics". Statistics/analytics at best are a snapshot of a single piece of the whole picture. they are a tool, and like any tool can be misused when they are not understood. To get the whole story, you need to look at multiple stats and combine it with common sense and actual observation. Unfortunately, when it comes to posters' non-favorite teams, the latter two are often lacking on the main board.

I was more meaning you can make them say whatever you want to fit your narrative.

Oh and if you want to know why those people ignore zone starts, competition, and usage, is because one of the bloggers said most changes are on-the-fly and that negates all the variables. And, that is definitely not how actual analytics work.

As you can see by watching hockey, when one team changes, Hitchcock will match that switch and either take Petro off or put him on.

This is what was driving me insane. How the hell does playing against Kane, Benn, Toews, Panarin and Spezza not matter.

When he said he didn't even factor in point production, I basically tuned him out. I get it....I'm not heavy into analytics and I understand it's annoying when people ask "do you even watch the players"? But the ****....if you watch Blues hockey, not one single person is going to walk away and think Shattenkirk>Pietrangelo defensively.

 

[Mike Liut]

The Blues need to add a top 6 young core type player when they move Shatty, even if it means moving Rattie or their 2nd rounder in the deal. I'd like some size too.

 

[Dbrownss]

Arizona said they are looking to add 2 dmen, so this does not take them out on Shatty. Also it does help Shatty's value because regardless of sides teams are looking for legit PMDs and PP QBs, Shatty and Yandle are the only two left who fit that bill

Vatanen is still available isn't he?

 

[bleedblue1223]

Vatanen is still available isn't he?

To an extent. I see him staying with Anaheim.

 

[Majorityof1]

Arizona said they are looking to add 2 dmen, so this does not take them out on Shatty. Also it does help Shatty's value because regardless of sides teams are looking for legit PMDs and PP QBs, Shatty and Yandle are the only two left who fit that bill

I didn't know Arizona was going after 2, but I'd be surprised if they went after Goligoski and Shattenkirk as their 2. With OEL at $5.5, that would be a good bit spent on defense. And they have some good RFAs they need to sign, plus Michaelek under contract. They'd probably have to move an RFA D in trade to bring in Shatty, and we don't have need. I'm not an expert on Arizona, but who would they push out for Shatty....

OEL - Stone
Goligoski - Murphy
Connauton - Michalek

Pair Shattenkirk with OEL, move Michalek to 7th and push Stone and Murphy down?

 

[SirPaste]

Vatanen is still available isn't he?

I forgot about him, he's potentially available too. But the point stands, if Barrie, Trouba, Goligoski are all off the market, it helps the value of the guys left

 

[bleedblue1223]

And teams looking include Edmonton, Arizona, Toronto, Detroit, Boston, Buffalo, Colorado, and a few others not named. Philly is likely in that list.

Best case is that Yandle signs somewhere in the West.

 

[Klank Loves You]

And teams looking include Edmonton, Arizona, Toronto, Detroit, Boston, Buffalo, Colorado, and a few others not named. Philly is likely in that list.

Best case is that Yandle signs somewhere in the West.

Is shatty worth a top 4 pick?

 

[Blanick]

And teams looking include Edmonton, Arizona, Toronto, Detroit, Boston, Buffalo, Colorado, and a few others not named. Philly is likely in that list.

Best case is that Yandle signs somewhere in the West.

I honestly think it is going to come down to Boston and Detroit. However, even though it is very unlikely I would love to see Edmonton trade something like Draisaitl or the 4thOA just to see the trade forum melt.

 

[Dbrownss]

Is shatty worth a top 4 pick?

I'd like to think so, unique situation that seems to teeter on contract situations.

To clarify. I just mean the 4th. Not 1-3

 

[Ranksu]

Jesus that main trade board is crazy, never know what you are getting there. Its like womens, hard to predict is't good or bad day, mostly bad.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Is shatty worth a top 4 pick?

No...

 

[Klank Loves You]

No...

That's why im asking. I can't get a good feel for his value, especially after a pretty bad postseason.

 

[bleedblue1223]

That's why im asking. I can't get a good feel for his value, especially after a pretty bad postseason.

Lucic is his rough value comp IMO.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Oh and if you want to know why those people ignore zone starts, competition, and usage, is because one of the bloggers said most changes are on-the-fly and that negates all the variables. And, that is definitely not how actual analytics work.

As you can see by watching hockey, when one team changes, Hitchcock will match that switch and either take Petro off or put him on.

Blues do zone matching rather than hard matching, but I'm more interested in discussing the bolded. I haven't seen the article you're referring to, but a quick case study-esque glance at Backes' numbers makes me question the conclusion.

This past year, Backes had 819 non-neutral zone faceoffs at even strength in 79 games, or about 10.37 a game. If you include neutral zone faceoffs as well, he was out there for 1236 total faceoffs at ES. He had 1107:34 ES minutes. I don't have hard ES shift numbers for him since my go-to reference (War-on-Ice) is no more, but ball-parking his average at 42 seconds translates to approximately 1582 ES shifts.

Now, we don't know when in his shifts each of those faceoffs took place, but generally speaking faceoffs are used by coaches as a convenient time to get fresh players on the ice. I think it's safe to assume that those faceoffs represent the start of a shift more often than not. We also don't know exactly how many shifts involved multiple faceoffs, which is a potential confounding variable. Obviously that number is greater than zero, but I'd generally say it's an exception rather than a rule.

Even if we ultra-conservatively assume that half his non-neutral zone faceoffs represent the actual start of a shift and cut the total number non-neutral faceoffs in half to account for the possibility of multiple faceoffs occurring in the same shift, you're still left with approximately 205 discrete occurrences to be divided up by zone start. A guy with a 60% OZS is getting 123 of those in the offensive zone. Backes would be getting 78.

If we ignore all the caveats and just take Backes' numbers at face value, a 60% OZS instead of this past year's 38% would have swung 181 of his faceoffs from the defensive zone to the offensive zone.

Caveats or not, I think it's hard to make a credible case that those differences have a completely negligible impact on a guy's offensive numbers.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

Any chance in hell we could land Pavel Zacha? i know it would take an overpayment but NJ needs a lot of pieces:

Shatty
Barbashev
Rattie

for

Zacha

 

[Dbrownss]

NYI are very high on Zacha. With Hamonic staying, no need or money for Shattenkirk

 

[kimzey59]

Lucic is his rough value comp IMO.

No, he isn't. The Blues are not retaining salary and we're not moving him as a cap dump. People can point at Lucic all they want, there are no similarities between the situations.

Edit- Not to mention that we probably don't have a second trade in place that would qualify it as a 3way trade.

Yandle is the value comp. Top prospect, 2nd round pick, conditional 1st round pick.

 

[LetsGoBooze]

NYI are very high on Zacha. With Hamonic staying, no need or money for Shattenkirk

Zacha from NJ not NYI for clarification.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Blues do zone matching rather than hard matching, but I'm more interested in discussing the bolded. I haven't seen the article you're referring to, but a quick case study-esque glance at Backes' numbers makes me question the conclusion.

This past year, Backes had 819 non-neutral zone faceoffs at even strength in 79 games, or about 10.37 a game. If you include neutral zone faceoffs as well, he was out there for 1236 total faceoffs at ES. He had 1107:34 ES minutes. I don't have hard ES shift numbers for him since my go-to reference (War-on-Ice) is no more, but ball-parking his average at 42 seconds translates to approximately 1582 ES shifts.

Now, we don't know when in his shifts each of those faceoffs took place, but generally speaking faceoffs are used by coaches as a convenient time to get fresh players on the ice. I think it's safe to assume that those faceoffs represent the start of a shift more often than not. We also don't know exactly how many shifts involved multiple faceoffs, which is a potential confounding variable. Obviously that number is greater than zero, but I'd generally say it's an exception rather than a rule.

Even if we ultra-conservatively assume that half his non-neutral zone faceoffs represent the actual start of a shift and cut the total number non-neutral faceoffs in half to account for the possibility of multiple faceoffs occurring in the same shift, you're still left with approximately 205 discrete occurrences to be divided up by zone start. A guy with a 60% OZS is getting 123 of those in the offensive zone. Backes would be getting 78.

If we ignore all the caveats and just take Backes' numbers at face value, a 60% OZS instead of this past year's 38% would have swung 181 of his faceoffs from the defensive zone to the offensive zone.

Caveats or not, I think it's hard to make a credible case that those differences have a completely negligible impact on a guy's offensive numbers.

I'll try and find the article that the Ranger fan posted, but it was just a random blogger. The numbers did not add up at all, and the base of his conclusion was that most changes during a game are on-the-fly and not due to a zone start, so he essentially just throws the zone start argument out. That is also used to throw out the competition argument. The article felt very much like it had an agenda to prove.

An prime example for why that blogger was wrong is Hedman and Pietrangelo. If you compare their Corsi and zone starts year to year, you see a pattern. That same pattern goes along with the HF group thought that Hedman has become elite and Petro has stagnated, when in reality, they are the exact same, just being used differently from how they used to be.

 

[Overkamp]

That's why im asking. I can't get a good feel for his value, especially after a pretty bad postseason.

Shattenkirk plus our 1st and maybe Sobotka/Barbashev make work..no idea.

 

[thigpen]

Is shatty worth a top 4 pick?

Well, if you consider that we traded our 1stOA in EJ for him, then yeah.

 

[Evocable Manager]

I wish Sam Reinhart was somehow available. I love him and think he is absolutely amazing. Though this is me dreaming.

 

[Dbrownss]

Zacha from NJ not NYI for clarification.

Hahaha....I always get Zacha and Barzal mixed up.

NJ is even less likely their forward group is bare.

 

[BlueDream]

I disagree. I think it will probably hurt his value, although not much. Goligoski being a LHD wasn't an option for some teams who may be after Shattenkirk, like Edmonton. There are still other decent LHD options on the FA market. Yandle and Hamhuis being big ones. Its the RHD mkt that is weak. So teams that can use a LHD or RHD still have other options. Arizona, was a team that just needed a good PMD, regardless of handedness. So we are losing a potential landing place for Shatty, but not really diluting the talent pool for most of Shatty's suitors.

Mostly it sucks because Arizona is one of the few teams with a top 10 draft pick that also would be interested in Shattenkirk AND is looking to make a push for the playoffs right now.

Pretty clearly increases his value. If Trouba or Barrie can't be had, teams will really want a PMD who is still pretty young and Shattenkirk is the best defenseman on the trade market.