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Prospect Info: Binghamton Devils and ECHL talk

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devilsblood

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Just flipping through some recent 2nd rounders who have crossed the 20 NHL games mark, and restricting the search to fwd's who play in the CHL(or USHL), and being over a ppg in their +1 year is by no means a prerequisite.

2013:
Zach Sanford, was at .7 ppg in the USHL. 6'4". 23 gp's for the Caps.
Will Carrier, a tick below a ppg in the Q. 6'1". 35 gp's for Buff.
Justin Bailey, 43 in 54 in the OHL. 6'4". 27 gp's for Buff.
Laurent Dauphin, 54 in 52 in the Q. 6' 32 gp's for Arizona.

Nicolas Petan is the only CHL/USHL fwd from that draft who killed it in their +1 year(120 in 71) and has since played 20+ NHL games. 68 gp's for Winnipeg. And he's a little guy, 5' 9".

2012

Brock McGinn, 54 in 68. 6'. 61 gp's for Carolina.
Colton Sissons, 67 in 61. 6'1" 93 gps' for Nash
Chris Tierney, 57 in 68. 6'. 182 gp's for Sharks.
Jordan Martinook, 64 in 72(drafted after his +1 year) 142 gp's for Arizona.

so zero 2012 2nd rndr's who have played 20 NHL games killed it in their +1 year.

2011.

Ty Rattie, Killed it.
Jurco, solidly over a ppg.
Boone Jenner, 49 pts 43 gps.
Saad, killed it.
Brett Ritchie, under a ppg.
Lesio, under a ppg.
Prince, killed it.

2010

Christian Thomas killed it.
DSP, a tick under a ppg.
Spooner, 65 in 53.
Toffoli, killed it

2009
Ferraro, under a ppg.
O'Reilly, dnp a +1 year, 66 in 68 in his draft year.
Clifford, a tick under.
Morin, killed it.





2008

O'dell under a ppg.
Luke Adam, 49 in 47
Cormier, 51 in 54,

2007
Repik under a ppg(drafted after +1)
Tangradi 60 in 56.
Tyrell 65 in 68.
Moller, 83 in 63.
Galiardi 70 in 72.
Spaling 72 in 56.
Simmonds 75 in 60.


So amongst those those 2nd round picks from the CHL/USHL fwd's who have played 20 NHL games, a good chunk were under a ppg in their +1 year.
 

devilsblood

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HersheyBob27 said:
Steelhead STH here. So much of what Bastian does for the team should translate easily to the AHL next season. Little or no chance Jersey sends him back for an OA year when he is signed already. Counting points and looking at game sheets is great but nothing beats the eye test when evaluating prospects IMO. His hockey sense is easily tops among Steelhead forwards
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Well that's a nice feather in the Bastian cap.

I'm still not sold on him necessarily going to the A, but we shall see.
 
Feed Me A Stray Cat

Feed Me A Stray Cat

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devilsblood said:
Just flipping through some recent 2nd rounders who have crossed the 20 NHL games mark, and restricting the search to fwd's who play in the CHL(or USHL), and being over a ppg in their +1 year is by no means a prerequisite.

2013:
Zach Sanford, was at .7 ppg in the USHL. 6'4". 23 gp's for the Caps.
Will Carrier, a tick below a ppg in the Q. 6'1". 35 gp's for Buff.
Justin Bailey, 43 in 54 in the OHL. 6'4". 27 gp's for Buff.
Laurent Dauphin, 54 in 52 in the Q. 6' 32 gp's for Arizona.

Nicolas Petan is the only CHL/USHL fwd from that draft who killed it in their +1 year(120 in 71) and has since played 20+ NHL games. 68 gp's for Winnipeg. And he's a little guy, 5' 9".

2012

Brock McGinn, 54 in 68. 6'. 61 gp's for Carolina.
Colton Sissons, 67 in 61. 6'1" 93 gps' for Nash
Chris Tierney, 57 in 68. 6'. 182 gp's for Sharks.
Jordan Martinook, 64 in 72(drafted after his +1 year) 142 gp's for Arizona.

so zero 2012 2nd rndr's who have played 20 NHL games killed it in their +1 year.

2011.

Ty Rattie, Killed it.
Jurco, solidly over a ppg.
Boone Jenner, 49 pts 43 gps.
Saad, killed it.
Brett Ritchie, under a ppg.
Lesio, under a ppg.
Prince, killed it.

2010

Christian Thomas killed it.
DSP, a tick under a ppg.
Spooner, 65 in 53.
Toffoli, killed it

2009
Ferraro, under a ppg.
O'Reilly, dnp a +1 year, 66 in 68 in his draft year.
Clifford, a tick under.
Morin, killed it.





2008

O'dell under a ppg.
Luke Adam, 49 in 47
Cormier, 51 in 54,

2007
Repik under a ppg(drafted after +1)
Tangradi 60 in 56.
Tyrell 65 in 68.
Moller, 83 in 63.
Galiardi 70 in 72.
Spaling 72 in 56.
Simmonds 75 in 60.


So amongst those those 2nd round picks from the CHL/USHL fwd's who have played 20 NHL games, a good chunk were under a ppg in their +1 year.
Click to expand...

I know I was the one to set the 20 game over/under, but the vast majority of the guys on your list in the 2007-2010 range aren't in the NHL anymore.

Generally, regressing statistically and/or putting up less than a PPG in the CHL in your post draft year is a bad sign. Sometimes it works out. Guys like Radek Faksa exist. Our own John Quenneville rebounded nicely. But more often than not it's a sign that the player isn't that good.

All I'm calling for is more accurate expectations for prospects. Start with this: the vast majority fail. Most of the guys in the top 15 turn out pretty good, but after that it's largely a crap shoot.

We're fortunate to have some interesting prospects after being pretty barren from 2010 to 2015, I'd just caution some from developing overly optimistic expectations for fringe guys like Bastian and Kerfoot.
 

devilsblood

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Feed Me A Stray Cat said:
I know I was the one to set the 20 game over/under, but the vast majority of the guys on your list in the 2007-2010 range aren't in the NHL anymore.

Generally, regressing statistically and/or putting up less than a PPG in the CHL in your post draft year is a bad sign. Sometimes it works out. Guys like Radek Faksa exist. Our own John Quenneville rebounded nicely. But more often than not it's a sign that the player isn't that good.

All I'm calling for is more accurate expectations for prospects. Start with this: the vast majority fail. Most of the guys in the top 15 turn out pretty good, but after that it's largely a crap shoot.

We're fortunate to have some interesting prospects after being pretty barren from 2010 to 2015, I'd just caution some from developing overly optimistic expectations for fringe guys like Bastian and Kerfoot.
Click to expand...


It's cool that you like to be the chief of the cold water brigade, but some people just like to be optimistic. Pick a player and hitch up a trailer of hope to that player, and then follow that player. For some, that is part of the fandom process. Hoping to pull a rico out of the fire, a cam atkinson, a Jaime Benn. Sure most draftees fail, don't need a degree in analytics to realize that, but we need not slather that fact all over every prospect in the pool.


Also, I'm not putting Kerfoot and Bastian in the same boat.
 
Zippy316

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devilsblood said:
It's cool that you like to be the chief of the cold water brigade, but some people just like to be optimistic. Pick a player and hitch up a trailer of hope to that player, and then follow that player. For some, that is part of the fandom process. Hoping to pull a rico out of the fire, a cam atkinson, a Jaime Benn. Sure most draftees fail, don't need a degree in analytics to realize that, but we need not slather that fact all over every prospect in the pool.


Also, I'm not putting Kerfoot and Bastian in the same boat.
Click to expand...

Jamie Benn mainly fell because scouts weren't sure whether he would pick baseball or basketball.

Regardless, let's try to get back to AHL talk here rather than derail another page of the Albany Devils thread.
 

devilsblood

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So Q on the season sits at just over .75 ppg. Averages 2.5 shots per game. 11 goals, Shooting only 9%, which is pretty low considering his shot was considered a strength. 6 of his goals are PP. so only 5 es goals. A -14 on the year.

Certainly some areas that could use improvement, Kowalsky talked about conditioning, and I think that can be seen in his production which has tailed off a bit, but overall a very promising year.
 

devilsblood

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Oh man, Albany's team save% on the year is at .899.

Mac is precisely at .900, Appleby has seen his #'s slump over the past couple weeks and sit's at .906.

Team shooting % by comparison is 9.4, so very big disparity.

Shots on the season 1617 for, 1333 against.

Last year team shooting was 9.3, while team save % was .911. Shots 2263 for vs 1688 against.

Per game shot differential.
Last year +7.6.

This year +5.2.

Goalie play has held this years team back. Injury to Wedge was significant, questionable as to whether Mac was best suited in the A vs's back in juniors.
 
Feed Me A Stray Cat

Feed Me A Stray Cat

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devilsblood said:
Oh man, Albany's team save% on the year is at .899.

Mac is precisely at .900, Appleby has seen his #'s slump over the past couple weeks and sit's at .906.

Team shooting % by comparison is 9.4, so very big disparity.

Shots on the season 1617 for, 1333 against.

Last year team shooting was 9.3, while team save % was .911. Shots 2263 for vs 1688 against.

Per game shot differential.
Last year +7.6.

This year +5.2.

Goalie play has held this years team back. Injury to Wedge was significant, questionable as to whether Mac was best suited in the A vs's back in juniors.
Click to expand...

Where are you getting your numbers from? I see 1,482 shots against for Albany based on the shots against of their goalies.
 
NJDevs26

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devilsblood said:
Goalie play has held this years team back. Injury to Wedge was significant, questionable as to whether Mac was best suited in the A vs's back in juniors.
Click to expand...

You could say that earlier in the year but Blackwood's improvement lately has been encouraging while I guess Appelby regressing was probably to be expected to a degree.
 

devilsblood

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Feed Me A Stray Cat said:
Where are you getting your numbers from? I see 1,482 shots against for Albany based on the shots against of their goalies.
Click to expand...

http://www.thealbanydevils.com/individual-statistics/

You are right, I was going saves, for both years.

Adjusted.

This year shots against: 1482

Last year shots against: 1853

Shot differential this year:+135

Shot differential last year:+410

Per game shot differential:+2.45

Per game differential last year:+5.39

Goals allowed, given they are going in at a higher rate, does widen the the shot differential gap last year to this.
 
Unknown Caller

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Maybe we should give a kid who was 19 at the time a chance to work through his first few months in professional hockey before overreacting?

How many goalies get significant playing time in the ahl in their d+2 year? Probably an extremely low percentage.
 

Triumph

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The way the organization has talked about Blackwood is that he has to unlearn certain bad habits but that he has incredible talent. I suspect that's why they wanted him in Albany - so they could oversee him unlearning those things and learning the right way, even if it came at the cost of some struggles initially.
 

devilsblood

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Unknown Caller said:
Maybe we should give a kid who was 19 at the time a chance to work through his first few months in professional hockey before overreacting?

How many goalies get significant playing time in the ahl in their d+2 year? Probably an extremely low percentage.
Click to expand...

Rhodes 81 said:
Judging 20 year old goalies in the minors by their save percentage is a questionable practice, honestly
Click to expand...

I'm neither judging Blackwood, nor am I over reacting.

I'm saying the goalie play has been an hindrance on the team. It's really not a comment on Blackwood at all.
 
Cheddabombs

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devilsblood said:
But Appleby has regressed. Like ships passing in the night.
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Appleby is a nice story but I am much more concerned with Blackwood's development to be honest. That's not a slight on Appleby either, I just have high hopes for Blackwood. A goalie with his athletic ability and size isn't common, give him a some proper playing time and coaching and he can be a real force in the NHL.

And at the end of the day the AHL is what it is, a developmental league. If Blackwood has improved over the course of the year I'll chalk it up as a great sign. Same goes for the rest of our prospects down there.
 

devilsblood

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Cheddabombs said:
Appleby is a nice story but I am much more concerned with Blackwood's development to be honest. That's not a slight on Appleby either, I just have high hopes for Blackwood. A goalie with his athletic ability and size isn't common, give him a some proper playing time and coaching and he can be a real force in the NHL.

And at the end of the day the AHL is what it is, a developmental league. If Blackwood has improved over the course of the year I'll chalk it up as a great sign. Same goes for the rest of our prospects down there.
Click to expand...

Ya, but again, Im just talking about the overall state of goal tending for Albany and it's effect on the team.

I really don't have a favorite in the Appleby vs Blackwood race. Maybe early on I was more on Appleby's side cause it looked like he was a lot closer while Blackwood appeared to be more of a project.
 
Bleedred

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Unknown Caller said:
Exactly. Pretty sure Wedgewood was a complete disaster his first couple years in the minors.
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He was, which I've cited as one of the reasons in which I didn't want him to be the backup for the NHL team this year. He's only even had one good AHL season to date.

Even before he got injured this year, he wasn't a complete disaster, but he wasn't where he was last year either.

Wedgewood was also a year older in his first full season in Albany. He had to play in the ECHL for most of his first pro season, since we had both Frazee and Kinkaid still on the AHL team.
 
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