Prospect Info: Binghamton Devils and ECHL talk

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

I didn't say he was playing in the NHL next yearz. I said he'll play a full year in the AHL and get a call up for a few games. His size, skill and style make his game more pro ready than other player who might be putting up more points. Like a Gignac of a McLeod.

He should probably be in junior again next year, followed by a full year in the AHL. Maybe he gets a call-up at some point during that 2018-19 season, but realistically I think we're looking at 2019-2020 for an NHL debut, if he ever even gets there.

To back up a bit, just because a player has a big body doesn't mean he is more fit for the NHL. Look at Stefan Matteau and Patrice Cormier.

Generally, if you're under a PPG in juniors as a forward, it means your skill level isn't close to NHL ready.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

As has been said, he was injured for a 10 game stretch where he put up very little points.

I'm not too concerned about Bastian's development. For whatever reason, bigger forwards like him just never seem to put up the same point totals as the smaller, skilled guys. Just look at Zacha, Simmonds, Jeff Carter, and I'm sure there are other cases. The guys that do usually end up being your elite talents like Benn; Bastian is still along a similar path to Simmonds right now.

Bastian's the type of player where I would say looking at the player is far more important than watching the numbers, especially at the junior level.

Big guys take a bit to develop, but Zacha was dominating the OHL in his post draft year. He had 77 points in 58 games between regular season and playoffs. Simmonds was comfortably over a PPG in his post draft year (89 points in 74 games). Carter was comfortably over a PPG.

People make this false equivalence between the NHL and OHL, that a guy who is a big body / checker / defensively sound in juniors automatically will be that way in the NHL. It doesn't work like that.

Putting up points in juniors is a sign of your basic overall skills, not just offensive/point producing skills. Skating, hockey sense, stickhandling, etc. Those are all extremely valuable tools in the defensive zone as well as the offensive zone, so a forward who is struggling to put up points in junior likely won't ever make it to the NHL in any capacity.

None of this says Bastian won't continue to develop and become an NHL player. But my money is on him getting another year in the OHL followed by a significant amount of time in the AHL.

 

[Zippy316]

Big guys take a bit to develop, but Zacha was dominating the OHL in his post draft year. He had 77 points in 58 games between regular season and playoffs. Simmonds was comfortably over a PPG in his post draft year (89 points in 74 games). Carter was comfortably over a PPG.

People make this false equivalence between the NHL and OHL, that a guy who is a big body / checker / defensively sound in juniors automatically will be that way in the NHL. It doesn't work like that.

Putting up points in juniors is a sign of your basic overall skills, not just offensive/point producing skills. Skating, hockey sense, stickhandling, etc. Those are all extremely valuable tools in the defensive zone as well as the offensive zone, so a forward who is struggling to put up points in junior likely won't ever make it to the NHL in any capacity.

None of this says Bastian won't continue to develop and become an NHL player. But my money is on him getting another year in the OHL followed by a significant amount of time in the AHL.

Bastian was over a point per game until his recent dry spell though, if I recall correctly.

My main point is I think he will catch back up to that point per game mark before the end of the season and likely surpass it. If you look at some recent players with similar size/tools to Bastian, a lot of them weren't that far away from the PPG mark. Even if he only ends up with a PPG, it's not that far off from what Simmonds/Carter/Zacha did in their draft +1 regular seasons.

And I think we can safely say Zacha/Carter are both superior prospects with brighter future than Bastian had. He's likely more comparable to a lesser version of Simmonds in terms of what type of production to expect at the NHL level if he continues to develop well.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Bastian was over a point per game until his recent dry spell though, if I recall correctly.

My main point is I think he will catch back up to that point per game mark before the end of the season and likely surpass it. If you look at some recent players with similar size/tools to Bastian, a lot of them weren't that far away from the PPG mark. Even if he only ends up with a PPG, it's not that far off from what Simmonds/Carter/Zacha did in their draft +1 regular seasons.

And I think we can safely say Zacha/Carter are both superior prospects with brighter future than Bastian had. He's likely more comparable to a lesser version of Simmonds in terms of what type of production to expect at the NHL level if he continues to develop well.

We tend to focus mainly on the success stories. But for every simmonds, there are five nemiszs, beachs, alius, gauthiers and gillies. It's helpful to keep perspective when setting expectations.

Simmonds is probably bastians ceiling, and it's a small likelihood he ever becomes that good. It's probably 50/50 on if he plays more than 20 career games.

Either way, expecting him to see Nhl time next year is extremely lofty. Heck, he should be back in juniors learning to dominate offensively.

 

[Zippy316]

We tend to focus mainly on the success stories. But for every simmonds, there are five nemiszs, beachs, alius, gauthiers and gillies. It's helpful to keep perspective when setting expectations.

Simmonds is probably bastians ceiling, and it's a small likelihood he ever becomes that good. It's probably 50/50 on if he plays more than 20 career games.

Either way, expecting him to see Nhl time next year is extremely lofty. Heck, he should be back in juniors learning to dominate offensively.

I won't argue about the NHL time. I could see the AHL being an option if he was performing better, but I agree with you.

Doing a quick run-through of some drafts and looking at the +1 PPG of the NHL players and almost all of them above a PPG and most were well over. Just in the 2006 draft alone Clutterbuck, N. Foligno, J. McGinn, Ryan White, Clutterbuck, and hell even Tom Sestito had 64 points in 60 games.

Not sure how the scoring has changed in OHL/WHL over the last 10 years though.

 

[devilsblood]

As has been said, he was injured for a 10 game stretch where he put up very little points.

I'm not too concerned about Bastian's development. For whatever reason, bigger forwards like him just never seem to put up the same point totals as the smaller, skilled guys. Just look at Zacha, Simmonds, Jeff Carter, and I'm sure there are other cases. The guys that do usually end up being your elite talents like Benn; Bastian is still along a similar path to Simmonds right now.

Bastian's the type of player where I would say looking at the player is far more important than watching the numbers, especially at the junior level.

I'm not worried about his development either, but I'm not sure he is a guy you pull out of juniors a year early.

Also Zacha, Benn, Simmonds and Carter were all over a ppg in their +1 years. Carter and Benn also stayed in juniors for a +2.

Not that I see the ppg line as some strict line in the sand, but I don't see the need to rush him.

 

[devilsblood]

We tend to focus mainly on the success stories. But for every simmonds, there are five nemiszs, beachs, alius, gauthiers and gillies. It's helpful to keep perspective when setting expectations.

Simmonds is probably bastians ceiling, and it's a small likelihood he ever becomes that good. It's probably 50/50 on if he plays more than 20 career games.

Either way, expecting him to see Nhl time next year is extremely lofty. Heck, he should be back in juniors learning to dominate offensively.

Yeah, I'll take the over on that.

 

[Triumph]

Yeah, I'll take the over on that.

Leaving Bastian aside for a second - What % of the Devils last 20 2nd round picks from 2013 back would you say have hit the over on this?

 

[devilsblood]

Leaving Bastian aside for a second - What % of the Devils last 20 2nd round picks from 2013 back would you say have hit the over on this?

Hey man, if you want to take the under go right ahead.

 

[Triumph]

Hey man, if you want to take the under go right ahead.

Good answer.

Bastian's not doing anything special right now. Mississauga isn't the best and he's been hurt, but there's a long way to go for him to reach the NHL.

 

[devilsblood]

Good answer.

Bastian's not doing anything special right now. Mississauga isn't the best and he's been hurt, but there's a long way to go for him to reach the NHL.

Don't ask me to do your work for you. If you want to make a point, make it.

 

[Triumph]

Don't ask me to do your work for you. If you want to make a point, make it.

I'm not asking you to do anything besides make a guess on how many players you think have hit the over on that. That's why I said 'would you say' instead of 'How many of the last 20 Devils 2nd round picks played more than 20 NHL games'. I already looked up the answer so I know. The point is in the guessing.

 

[devilsblood]

I do know 80% of our 2nd rounders from 2008 to 2013 have surpassed the 20 game plateau.

Not that this has anything to do with Bastian.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Leaving Bastian aside for a second - What % of the Devils last 20 2nd round picks from 2013 back would you say have hit the over on this?

Heck, how about 2nd round picks in general? Players who have played over 20 NHL games from the second round:

2010: 16
2009: 16
2008: 18
2007: 10
2006: 15

We're at about 50% hit rate in the second round on players making it to 20+ NHL games. And most of the players who did make it had much better draft + 1 seasons than Bastian.

Every player is different, and Bastian could very help be a late bloomer and make a big step next year. But a lot of the posters around here are simply ignorant of the actual odds of prospects making it.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

I do know 80% of our 2nd rounders from 2008 to 2013 have surpassed the 20 game plateau.

Not that this has anything to do with Bastian.

Totally incorrect. Do you just make stuff up?

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2013e.html
I count 9 (30%).

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2012e.html
I count 8 (27%).

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2011e.html
I count 23 (77%).

Strong chance that you looked at 2011 and just assumed every other year was like that. I provided the results from 2006 to 2010 above.

 

[R8Devs]

Totally incorrect. Do you just make stuff up?

the only player from that span that hasn't played over 20 games is brandon burlon. kind of a weird way to present it but the devils second rounders in that span were
Burlon
Cormier
Gelinas
Merrill
Severson
Santini

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

the only player from that span that hasn't played over 20 games is brandon burlon

My bad, thought he meant all 2nd rounders in the NHL. Apoloigies devilsblood.

But that's a really great sample size - a whole six draft picks. Also conveniently leaves out how our 2007, 2006, 2005, 2003, 2002, and 2001 (x3) second round picks didn't make it. Probably better to look at NHL as a whole for guidelines.

 

[devilsblood]

Over 50% on 4th rounders from 2013 to 2007.

3rd rounders since 2005. 5 out of 11. Pretty good.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Over 50% on 4th rounders from 2013 to 2007.

3rd rounders since 2005. 5 out of 11. Pretty good.

Why are you restricting the sample from 2007 to 2013?

Across the NHL, about 50% of second rounders play 20+ NHL games. That's the relevant statistic.

 

[devilsblood]

My bad, thought he meant all 2nd rounders in the NHL. Apoloigies devilsblood.

But that's a really great sample size - a whole six draft picks. Also conveniently leaves out how our 2007, 2006, 2005, 2003, 2002, and 2001 (x3) second round picks didn't make it. Probably better to look at NHL as a whole for guidelines.

Apology not accepted.

But who cares, this has nothing to do with Bastian.

Look, you set the over/under. I took the over. If you want to take the under go for it.

 

[Triumph]

Yeah, I only asked about the Devils because I'm lazy - I don't think the Devils' past results have anything to do with future ones. But the answer was 7 out of the Devils' last 20 second rounders played 20 NHL games.

50% is probably a decent mark, though I think that will trend very slightly higher with an expansion team coming in.

Also I don't really think 20 games is a great standard to measure success of draft picks - the Devils have been so devoid of talent that a lot of guys have gotten a chance here that wouldn't've gotten a chance elsewhere. That is going to start to change, hopefully.

 

[devilsblood]

Why are you restricting the sample from 2007 to 2013?

Cause it works in my favor?

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Apology not accepted.

But who cares, this has nothing to do with Bastian.

Look, you set the over/under. I took the over. If you want to take the under go for it.

I'll take the under. But I won't take it with unbridled confidence, since I don't know Bastian's development curve. Nor would I say you were completely wrong if the under does occur, since all of this lies on a spectrum of probabilities and nothing is for certain.

Bastian might also get some unfair positive treatment due to his connection to McLeod.

If only 50% of NHL players from the second round play 20+ games, and most of those guys who did had good draft + 1 seasons, it should cause people to pause about Bastian. Not throw him on the bust list. Just temper expectations.

Pretty reasonable conclusion.

 

[Feed Me A Stray Cat]

Yeah, I only asked about the Devils because I'm lazy - I don't think the Devils' past results have anything to do with future ones. But the answer was 7 out of the Devils' last 20 second rounders played 20 NHL games.

50% is probably a decent mark, though I think that will trend very slightly higher with an expansion team coming in.

Also I don't really think 20 games is a great standard to measure success of draft picks - the Devils have been so devoid of talent that a lot of guys have gotten a chance here that wouldn't've gotten a chance elsewhere. That is going to start to change, hopefully.

Good point. Seth Helgeson is not getting 50 games in most other NHL franchises.

 

[HersheyBob27]

He should probably be in junior again next year, followed by a full year in the AHL. Maybe he gets a call-up at some point during that 2018-19 season, but realistically I think we're looking at 2019-2020 for an NHL debut, if he ever even gets there.

To back up a bit, just because a player has a big body doesn't mean he is more fit for the NHL. Look at Stefan Matteau and Patrice Cormier.

Generally, if you're under a PPG in juniors as a forward, it means your skill level isn't close to NHL ready.

Steelhead STH here. So much of what Bastian does for the team should translate easily to the AHL next season. Little or no chance Jersey sends him back for an OA year when he is signed already. Counting points and looking at game sheets is great but nothing beats the eye test when evaluating prospects IMO. His hockey sense is easily tops among Steelhead forwards