Player Discussion: BIG Adam Lowry

[surixon]

I’d like to see Lowry in the #3C spot with a little bit more offensive help then he’s had. His gets to the right places and gets shots from those places. Based on that I think he can be 20 goal scorer in the right situation. Maybe he just doesn’t have the hands or shooting skill but I’d still like to have an extended look. What I’d like to see
Laine – Scheifele – Ehlers (or Wheeler)
Connor – Little – Wheeler (or Ehlers)
Perreault – Lowry – Armia
Dano – Copp - ?

Lowry has a pretty established track record of scoring at a 4th line rate and he hasn't always been stuck with depth. I personally don't see much growth left for him offensively outside of maybe the pp. Doesnt mean he cant be a good defensive pressence with two solid offensivw guys but i dont really expect a substabtial increade point production.

 

[Sixty Minute Man]

Lowry has a pretty established track record of scoring at a 4th line rate and he hasn't always been stuck with depth. I personally don't see much growth left for him offensively outside of maybe the pp. Doesnt mean he cant be a good defensive pressence with two solid offensivw guys but i dont really expect a substabtial increade point production.

Agreed. He's consistently put up 1.1/1.2 pts/60. That's good 4th line production. I think he is what he is. A very good defensive Centre.

 

[KingBogo]

Also, I believe when Chevy got Kulikov and Mason it was 2 of his 3 targets. If rumours are true, he was looking for a centre that went in the first 3 days. This led me to believe we were chasing one of Bonino or Gagner.

Bonino would have been ideal IMO. I still believe we need an established vet for the bottom 6, and ideally at center. I'm a Lowry fan but I'd prefer him at #4.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

I mostly agree, but if you don't want Lowry on the PP (neither do I), I think that there's very little chance that he could actually improve his numbers from last year. Unless by "numbers" you meant something other than scoring.

I think if Lowry gets to spend more time with a guy like Connor or Perreault on his line he will see an uptick in his 5 on 5 scoring. I'm fine with taking away his PP time for other players. Perreault / Connor will also make Armia more effective. Potential boost to both of them.

 

[surixon]

I think if Lowry gets to spend more time with a guy like Connor or Perreault on his line he will see an uptick in his 5 on 5 scoring. I'm fine with taking away his PP time for other players. Perreault / Connor will also make Armia more effective. Potential boost to both of them.

Well sure he'll score a bit more. It's more a question of the degree of the increase. Lowry scores at a 4th line rate. Maybe playing with Connor improves from a 1.1 to a 1.3 pp/60. That still doesn't make Lowry a great producer but maybe Connor needs a defensive rock while he finds his game at the NHL level.

 

[garret9]

On another thread, can't remember where, I calculated expected change for scoring on different lines, and even separated the ice time vs usage (QoT and QoC).
I'd grab it but I'm actually on an island with a cell phone hahaha

I just remember I tweeted it:

 

[garret9]

On another thread, can't remember where, I calculated expected change for scoring on different lines, and even separated the ice time vs usage (QoT and QoC).
I'd grab it but I'm actually on an island with a cell phone hahaha

I just remember I tweeted it:

Lowry had 19 EV points with tweeter 2nd/3rd ice time. Quality of linemates and competition you could argue pushes him down to a tougher ranking.

I suspect with normalized 3rd line usage and middle-six quality wingers Lowry would score at about a 1.3-1.4 p/60 rate. This was back of the napkin math, while I sit in the sun in my car on a ferry boat, so do what you may and wish for confidence intervals.

That puts him below average for a 3rd line player but not to the degree he was previous seasons.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

[mod]

It's not absurb to speculate that a top 3 forward on the team, who's played substantial time at centre may be in competition with Lowry, Petan and Roslovic.

I'm asking a question, because I don't have any information. You, on the other hand, have made a very bold claim and backed up that statement with nothing.

What does a mistake by the Ducks have anything to do with anything. They were foolish to let him go UFA. Was he mainly used as a Centre with the Ducks? I do know that he was a postive shot metrics player while he was there. So that suggests if he was playing centre, he was pretty good at it.

What was his TOI centre vs wing, what is his relcorsi in those minutes? GAR? Let's see a real comparison.

Perreault feeling comfortable at wing doesn't dismiss his effectiveness at centre. Playing wing may be easier for him. His boxscores may improve. He *might* be a better winger, but he may also be the third best centre on the team and *might* be substantially better than the next best option.

You were the one who first used the word absurd. It has been discussed here at great length as it happened over the past 3 seasons. If you have payed any attention to the Jets over that time you have seen it on the ice for yourself. He was terrible at C for the Jets. He had some success there prior to that. I'm not going to spend hours digging up the stats for you. If you disagree with my statements then you can prove your position.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Both the Caps and Ducks moving from him were well discussed gross errors in judgement by the blogging communities, especially the stats ones.

Before coming to WPG, Perreault had a career 5v5 point pace per min equal to Patrick Kane over the same years and a top 60 rel Corsi and relTM Corsi percentages.

There was talk that he was sheltered, and WPG media questioned his ability to matchup without Jokinen. I broke up the numbers and showed Jokinen may have been given lots of usage against top lines and Perreault not much, but Jokinen was destroyed in those minutes and Perreault actually excelled in points, & shots and goal differentials against top players.

This was all as a centre for multiple seasons.

There has been a narrative that Perreault's first trial as a centre on the Jets was a tragic failure, but neither the numbers nor my own eye test matched that.

The second trial was a failure, but this was with two rookie wingers or Stafford, and Perreault admitted to not being completely healthy.

I could agree to Perreault being a better winger than centre, and he seems to believe that he is more comfortable there... I do not believe that he is a poor or below average NHL centre though.

True that mistakes by othef teams are just that, mistakes. My using them was just an appeal to authority. He has been disappointing as a C for the Jets, particularly in the most recent trial.

There are lots of posts from me touting him as the C we needed on the 3rd line prior to that. I expected much better from him than what he produced. That was enough for me and apparently for him too.

 

[Sixty Minute Man]

You were the one who first used the word absurd. It has been discussed here at great length as it happened over the past 3 seasons. If you have payed any attention to the Jets over that time you have seen it on the ice for yourself. He was terrible at C for the Jets. He had some success there prior to that. I'm not going to spend hours digging up the stats for you. If you disagree with my statements then you can prove your position.

[mod]

I'm well aware of what I said. Your comment is still absurb. You stated an opinion matter of factly without considering the point that was being raised and without supplying an ounce of evidence besides your own opinion. I never asked you to dig up stats for me. I simply asked you to support your claim with something more tangible than your opinion.

I asked a question because I didn't have access to the facts. Garret provided them. From that we can see that Perreault was indeed successful at centre during his time with the Ducks. We also see that he was successful during his first stint with the Jets. We know that he played with weak teamates and was recovering from injury last season. Those facts support the notion that he should be in competition with Lowry, Petan and Roslovic for the 3C role.

 

[JetsFan815]

Bumping up this thread with some Lowry appreciation.

He has been amazing this season and has turned into a player that I genuinely enjoy watching- the hard work along the boards, the solid play in his own zone and yes the big hits! Scoring isn't there but that's fine, it doesn't have to be in the role that he is being used in. That line with Copp and Tanev has been great for us and there is some evidence to suggest that he is the engine that drives that line. I really think he has taken a step forward this season. I used to have him and Copp as interchangable but I think he has pulled ahead of Copp and put some distance this season. He is basically prime Burmistrov right now. I have changed my username title to give some respect to Lowry.

Many teams are using a grinder type player with skilled players- Hyman in Toronto, Ferland in Calgary, Anderson in Columbus, Iafallo in LA. Perhaps an experiment worth doing on the Jets is playing Lowry with 2 skilled players and see what happens. Doesn't have to be permanent but I would love to see Lowry centering Ehlers and Laine for a few games. Lowry pushing the play forward, laying some hits and Ehlers/Laine converting could be a good combo for us. His lack of scoring might be a concern in putting such a line together but he hasn't really played with great point producers since his rookie year.

 

[Maukkis]

If I understood these correctly, we face relatively little high danger shots with Lowry on the ice, while getting shots off from decent locations ourselves.

 

[Ducky10]

Bumping up this thread with some Lowry appreciation.

He has been amazing this season and has turned into a player that I genuinely enjoy watching- the hard work along the boards, the solid play in his own zone and yes the big hits! Scoring isn't there but that's fine, it doesn't have to be in the role that he is being used in. That line with Copp and Tanev has been great for us and there is some evidence to suggest that he is the engine that drives that line. I really think he has taken a step forward this season. I used to have him and Copp as interchangable but I think he has pulled ahead of Copp and put some distance this season. He is basically prime Burmistrov right now. I have changed my username title to give some respect to Lowry.

Many teams are using a grinder type player with skilled players- Hyman in Toronto, Ferland in Calgary, Anderson in Columbus, Iafallo in LA. Perhaps an experiment worth doing on the Jets is playing Lowry with 2 skilled players and see what happens. Doesn't have to be permanent but I would love to see Lowry centering Ehlers and Laine for a few games. Lowry pushing the play forward, laying some hits and Ehlers/Laine converting could be a good combo for us. His lack of scoring might be a concern in putting such a line together but he hasn't really played with great point producers since his rookie year.

Agreed, big Lowsy fan (had my white jersey emblazoned with his name before the Ducks playoff series), he's been a monster this year and has been very good all over the ice. He has put some distance between himself and Coop, definitely the straw that stirs the drink for that line.

One of the most impressive parts of his game this year has been his zone entries. He's bringing the puck over the line under control a lot more. It's helped how much they tilt the ice.

 

[Farmboy Patty]

If I understood these correctly, we face relatively little high danger shots with Lowry on the ice, while getting shots off from decent locations ourselves.

Lowry is solid defensively, good on the forecheck and wins a good chunk of his puck battles. He might be a better center for Laine and Ehlers. Respectively Little's north-south style should be a good fit with Copp and Tanev.

I'd like to see a 2A/2B setup with

Ehlers-Lowry-Laine
Copp-Little-Tanev

I think that this way both lines would score more than they do now.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

Ehlers-Lowry-Laine
Copp-Little-Tanev

This is actually intriguing. If it works, you could spark two lines.

 

[ijuka]

This is actually intriguing. If it works, you could spark two lines.

Yep, I'd like to see Laine and Ehlers play with Lowry. IIRC they even scored a goal together when they were on the ice for a moment earlier this season.

 

[sipowicz]

Agreed. He's consistently put up 1.1/1.2 pts/60. That's good 4th line production. I think he is what he is. A very good defensive Centre.

Trouble is the Jets don't need three (four) defensive C's on the team; Lowry, Copp, Hendricks (now Little)

PS Love how when a C can't score they are called a defensive centre!

 

[Whileee]

Trouble is the Jets don't need three (four) defensive C's on the team; Lowry, Copp, Hendricks (now Little)

PS Love how when a C can't score they are called a defensive centre!

Lower is a defensive C because he's really good at defense. Hendricks isn't. Little has plenty of offense. Still, I'd like to see Roslovic take a C spot to add some zip and offense.

 

[Whileee]

Bumping up this thread with some Lowry appreciation.

He has been amazing this season and has turned into a player that I genuinely enjoy watching- the hard work along the boards, the solid play in his own zone and yes the big hits! Scoring isn't there but that's fine, it doesn't have to be in the role that he is being used in. That line with Copp and Tanev has been great for us and there is some evidence to suggest that he is the engine that drives that line. I really think he has taken a step forward this season. I used to have him and Copp as interchangable but I think he has pulled ahead of Copp and put some distance this season. He is basically prime Burmistrov right now. I have changed my username title to give some respect to Lowry.

Many teams are using a grinder type player with skilled players- Hyman in Toronto, Ferland in Calgary, Anderson in Columbus, Iafallo in LA. Perhaps an experiment worth doing on the Jets is playing Lowry with 2 skilled players and see what happens. Doesn't have to be permanent but I would love to see Lowry centering Ehlers and Laine for a few games. Lowry pushing the play forward, laying some hits and Ehlers/Laine converting could be a good combo for us. His lack of scoring might be a concern in putting such a line together but he hasn't really played with great point producers since his rookie year.

Good post. I've been pumping his tires for a while this season. He's been very good. His defensive play is outstanding, and he consistently makes good plays with the puck. Really smart player. He'll be a key player in the playoffs.

 

[Farmboy Patty]

Good post. I've been pumping his tires for a while this season. He's been very good. His defensive play is outstanding, and he consistently makes good plays with the puck. Really smart player. He'll be a key player in the playoffs.

I think so too. When Lowry is on the ice I feel confident that the opposition will be kept in check and that the play will probably end up in the O zone. Lowry and Laine could become a fearsome play off duo. Laine goes into beast mode and scores like crazy while Lowry plays a really solid defensive game and is one tough cookie on the boards.

 

[DiggerD]

Enjoying the Lowry love, after 2 years of Lowry bashing. He is having a great year

 

[pucka lucka]

There are many more interesting ways to be a net zero player. I'd prefer 5 for 5 against over 0-0. Lowry is the latter. BORRRING.

 

[Flair Hay]

Lowry Copp and Tanev all having the same style and same mentality of what to accomplish every shift is evident. If they lose the puck for a split second, the other two are headed straight south back checking to avoid any off man rushes. And since they know how each other pressure the opposition, they anticipate where the puck is going next very well. The line has been greater than the sum of its part and that's reason number one to keep them together.

 

[ps241]

There are many more interesting ways to be a net zero player. I'd prefer 5 for 5 against over 0-0. Lowry is the latter. BORRRING.

I gained a new appreciation for Adam Lowry when he was out of the line up injured. I don't mind having a line that can eat tough match ups against the other teams top lines so we don't have to go power on power. Since there is a contractual premium to be paid for scoring in some ways it is a pretty cost effective to have a boring low cost net zero solution.

 

[pucka lucka]

I gained a new appreciation for Adam Lowry when he was out of the line up injured. I don't mind having a line that can eat tough match ups against the other teams top lines so we don't have to go power on power. Since there is a contractual premium to be paid for scoring in some ways it is a pretty cost effective to have a boring low cost net zero solution.

That's a good point, but it ain't my money!