Player Discussion: BIG Adam Lowry

[Joe Hallenback]

I think they would like it if Petan took the 3rd line role and then they can move Lowry to a 4th line role but I don't think Petan really won that job.

I think Roslovic and Petan will be given the chance to win that role this year. If they don't like either of them then they go back to the Lowry/Copp as centers for now.

Ideally at this time next year I think they would love to see a Connor/Roslovic/Armia 3rd line. Optimistically maybe even this year

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If you want to get a better idea of Lowry's performance at evens and where he deserves to be on the roster, we can look at GAR, since it combines his low scoring with things he does much better. It adds the defensive side, along with tilting the ice, and adjusts for usage.

Keep in mind, there are 90 first line positions. So, rankings of 1-90 (1st), 91-180 (2nd), and 181-270 (3rd) are what you should keep in mind.

Lowry's Ice Time

Lowry ranked 63rd in the NHL for total ice time for all forwards.
Lowry ranked 96th in the NHL for total EV ice time for all forwards.
In part due to being healthy for all 82 games and in part due to Maurice liking Lowry, Lowry got a LOT of ice.

Lowry's Impact

Lowry ranked 96th in Overall GAR.
Lowry ranked 129th in EV GAR.
This suggests Lowry gave the positive impact of a 2nd line forward.

Breaking it down into it's individual components, we can see how Lowry drives wins:
Lowry ranked 181st in EV Offense (mostly due to his positive impact on linemates as his scoring is weak)
Lowry ranked 22nd in EV Defense
Lowry ranked 62nd in PP Offense
Lowry ranked 273rd in Penalty Draw
Lowry ranked 96th in Penalty Take
Lowry ranked 22nd in Face Off Win Value

The issue is that Lowry generally got more ice time than his performance suggested for evens. Being 96th in overall impact with 63rd in ice time is not great. Being 129th in EV impact is not as great when you are 96th in EV ice time.

Lowry's Impact Relative to Ice Time

Lowry ranked 123rd in Overall Impact per Minute
Lowry ranked 143rd in Even Strength Impact per Minute

For components:
Lowry ranked 246th in EV Offense per min
Lowry ranked 79th in EV Defense per min
Lowry ranked 99th in PP Offense per min
Lowry ranked 310th in Penalty Draw per min
Lowry ranked 289th in Penalty Take per min
Lowry ranked 49th in Face Off Impact per min

Take Home

1) Lowry drives offensive and scores like a fourth line player
2) His defensive impact makes him a lot better than a fourth line player
3) He probably should be on the 2nd PP unit rather than the 1st

If you are looking at pure impact, Lowry could be passable as a 2nd line forward...
That said, I don't like specialized defensive players on the top two lines.
This is why I'm okay with Lowry as a 3rd line centre *with the right wingers and deployment*.

The best I ever saw Lowry was when he was with two of Frolik, Stempniak, and Perreault.

Last season rankings in EV Offense per min:
Perreault 20th
Stempniak 158th
Frolik ranked 160th
Matthias 257th
Armia 250th
Dano 278th
Copp 280th

I think Lowry can be on a 3rd line that does very well, but Matthias and Dano had weaker EVO/60 years than norm, and Armia and Copp haven't shown to drive offense at the NHL level (at least yet).

If you are putting him with guys like Mathias, Armia, Copp, and Dano (and these players don't improve offensive driving over last season), I would rather the Lowry line as a fourth line.
If you are putting him with guys like Perreault, Ehlers, Connor, etc., I would rather the Lowry line as a 3rd line.
I think this would if you got one player from each group, third line would still be optimal deployment for Lowry.

That's the way I look at the numbers and interpret the optimal usage from them.

We're going to miss you around here Garret!

 

[Sixty Minute Man]

We're going to miss you around here Garret!

Understatement of the year!

 

[Sixty Minute Man]

I think they would like it if Petan took the 3rd line role and then they can move Lowry to a 4th line role but I don't think Petan really won that job.

I think Roslovic and Petan will be given the chance to win that role this year. If they don't like either of them then they go back to the Lowry/Copp as centers for now.

Ideally at this time next year I think they would love to see a Connor/Roslovic/Armia 3rd line. Optimistically maybe even this year

You don't think they'll try Perreault back at centre? I know he struggled there at times last year, but I wonder how much that was injury related.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You don't think they'll try Perreault back at centre? I know he struggled there at times last year, but I wonder how much that was injury related.

He also struggled there every other time the Jets put him there. Can't say about his time before the Jets but the Ducks just let him walk and the Caps traded him pretty cheaply. Suggests he was less than outstanding there with those teams as well. OTOH he has been outstanding as a top 6 LW.

 

[surixon]

I think they would like it if Petan took the 3rd line role and then they can move Lowry to a 4th line role but I don't think Petan really won that job.

I think Roslovic and Petan will be given the chance to win that role this year. If they don't like either of them then they go back to the Lowry/Copp as centers for now.

Ideally at this time next year I think they would love to see a Connor/Roslovic/Armia 3rd line. Optimistically maybe even this year

Interesting take Joe. I hope Petan comes into camp and makes a statement.

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

Interesting take Joe. I hope Petan comes into camp and makes a statement.

It would change everything for the team.
We all see his talent and pedigree but he has seemed a long shot to achieve that in the NHL.

The side bar of that is he would potentially price himself off the team by doing so.

I think Lowry can improve on his numbers from last year.
But I don't ever want to see him on PP1.
Maybe PP2 but ideally not.

 

[Sixty Minute Man]

He also struggled there every other time the Jets put him there. Can't say about his time before the Jets but the Ducks just let him walk and the Caps traded him pretty cheaply. Suggests he was less than outstanding there with those teams as well. OTOH he has been outstanding as a top 6 LW.

Do you have any facts to back up this absurb statement?

 

[surixon]

It would change everything for the team.
We all see his talent and pedigree but he has seemed a long shot to achieve that in the NHL.

The side bar of that is he would potentially price himself off the team by doing so.

I think Lowry can improve on his numbers from last year.
But I don't ever want to see him on PP1.
Maybe PP2 but ideally not.

If he has a solid year the Jets likely bridge him for two years at less than 1.5 million per season as they dis with Lowry, Copp and Armia. I expect all the depth players moving forward will be bridged.

 

[garret9]

I think they would like it if Petan took the 3rd line role and then they can move Lowry to a 4th line role but I don't think Petan really won that job.

I think Roslovic and Petan will be given the chance to win that role this year. If they don't like either of them then they go back to the Lowry/Copp as centers for now.

Ideally at this time next year I think they would love to see a Connor/Roslovic/Armia 3rd line. Optimistically maybe even this year

I think so too.

 

[10Ducky10]

I'd like to see Connor move up to the top six and MP move to the third line with Roslo and Armia.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

Everytime Connor talks he makes sure to mention that he and Jack will be together for a long time so to me that says long term is Connor Roslovic as 2/3rds of a line.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Do you have any facts to back up this absurb statement?

Those are facts. Why do you think he was moved to LW by the Jets after having been signed to fill a C vacancy? What did we give the Ducks to get him? Nothing. They chose to let him walk for nothing without even offering him a contract. What did the Caps get for him? They got an undrafted player who hasn't managed to play a single NHL game + a 4th. Clearly the Caps valued him highly.

Do you think he has been a success at C for the Jets? Do you have any facts to back up that absurd belief?

 

[Jetsfan87]

Those are facts. Why do you think he was moved to LW by the Jets after having been signed to fill a C vacancy? What did we give the Ducks to get him? Nothing. They chose to let him walk for nothing without even offering him a contract. What did the Caps get for him? They got an undrafted player who hasn't managed to play a single NHL game + a 4th. Clearly the Caps valued him highly.

Do you think he has been a success at C for the Jets? Do you have any facts to back up that absurd belief?

Didnt Perreault even mention last year that he felt he was a LW. That he could fill in at C for odd shift/game but preferred playing LW.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Didnt Perreault even mention last year that he felt he was a LW. That he could fill in at C for odd shift/game but preferred playing LW.

Yes. To paraphrase, when he was first shifted to LW in the '15 season he stated that he felt much freer there and was happier (not to mention much more productive).

 

[Sixty Minute Man]

Those are facts. Why do you think he was moved to LW by the Jets after having been signed to fill a C vacancy? What did we give the Ducks to get him? Nothing. They chose to let him walk for nothing without even offering him a contract. What did the Caps get for him? They got an undrafted player who hasn't managed to play a single NHL game + a 4th. Clearly the Caps valued him highly.

Do you think he has been a success at C for the Jets? Do you have any facts to back up that absurd belief?

[mod]

It's not absurb to speculate that a top 3 forward on the team, who's played substantial time at centre may be in competition with Lowry, Petan and Roslovic.

I'm asking a question, because I don't have any information. You, on the other hand, have made a very bold claim and backed up that statement with nothing.

What does a mistake by the Ducks have anything to do with anything. They were foolish to let him go UFA. Was he mainly used as a Centre with the Ducks? I do know that he was a postive shot metrics player while he was there. So that suggests if he was playing centre, he was pretty good at it.

What was his TOI centre vs wing, what is his relcorsi in those minutes? GAR? Let's see a real comparison.

Perreault feeling comfortable at wing doesn't dismiss his effectiveness at centre. Playing wing may be easier for him. His boxscores may improve. He *might* be a better winger, but he may also be the third best centre on the team and *might* be substantially better than the next best option.

 

[garret9]

Those are facts. Why do you think he was moved to LW by the Jets after having been signed to fill a C vacancy? What did we give the Ducks to get him? Nothing. They chose to let him walk for nothing without even offering him a contract. What did the Caps get for him? They got an undrafted player who hasn't managed to play a single NHL game + a 4th. Clearly the Caps valued him highly.

Do you think he has been a success at C for the Jets? Do you have any facts to back up that absurd belief?

Both the Caps and Ducks moving from him were well discussed gross errors in judgement by the blogging communities, especially the stats ones.

Before coming to WPG, Perreault had a career 5v5 point pace per min equal to Patrick Kane over the same years and a top 60 rel Corsi and relTM Corsi percentages.

There was talk that he was sheltered, and WPG media questioned his ability to matchup without Jokinen. I broke up the numbers and showed Jokinen may have been given lots of usage against top lines and Perreault not much, but Jokinen was destroyed in those minutes and Perreault actually excelled in points, & shots and goal differentials against top players.

This was all as a centre for multiple seasons.

There has been a narrative that Perreault's first trial as a centre on the Jets was a tragic failure, but neither the numbers nor my own eye test matched that.

The second trial was a failure, but this was with two rookie wingers or Stafford, and Perreault admitted to not being completely healthy.

I could agree to Perreault being a better winger than centre, and he seems to believe that he is more comfortable there... I do not believe that he is a poor or below average NHL centre though.

 

[garret9]

Yes. To paraphrase, when he was first shifted to LW in the '15 season he stated that he felt much freer there and was happier (not to mention much more productive).

More productive?

Centre:
2010 1.6 p/60, -9.8 relCorsi
2011 2.0 p/60, +4.9 relCorsi
2012 2.3 p/60, +3.9 relCorsi
2013 2.1 p/60, +3.4 relCorsi
2014 2.5 p/60, +2.1 relCorsi

Mix:
2015 2.1 p/60, +4.6 relCorsi
2017 1.9 p/60, +4.1 relCorsi (played injured for part of season)

Winger:
2016 1.6 p/60, +7.6 relCorsi (played injured for part of season)

It's possible, but I'm not certain of it...
His GAR per game has been better, but his TOI/GP is also much higher.

 

[Sixty Minute Man]

Thanks Garret!

With Little being injured for so long, wouldn't Perreault have faced tougher matchups at Centre? That would impact his production. Then he, himself, was injured, and it took him awhile to recover fully.

If the optimum roster splits Wheeler, Schiefele and Perreault and with the abundance of wingers doesn't it make sense to try Perreault back at Centre?

Ehlers Scheifele Laine
Petan Little Wheeler
Connor Perreault Dano
Copp Lowry Armia
Matthias/Tanev

Because Lowry is a capable third line Centre, then when the team is trailing in the third period:

Ehlers Scheifele Laine
Perreault Little Wheeler
Connor Lowry Dano
Petan Copp Armia
Matthias/Tanev

 

[garret9]

I think they would like it if Petan took the 3rd line role and then they can move Lowry to a 4th line role but I don't think Petan really won that job.

I think Roslovic and Petan will be given the chance to win that role this year. If they don't like either of them then they go back to the Lowry/Copp as centers for now.

Ideally at this time next year I think they would love to see a Connor/Roslovic/Armia 3rd line. Optimistically maybe even this year

Also, I believe when Chevy got Kulikov and Mason it was 2 of his 3 targets. If rumours are true, he was looking for a centre that went in the first 3 days. This led me to believe we were chasing one of Bonino or Gagner.

 

[scarbrow21]

It would change everything for the team.
We all see his talent and pedigree but he has seemed a long shot to achieve that in the NHL.

The side bar of that is he would potentially price himself off the team by doing so.

I think Lowry can improve on his numbers from last year.
But I don't ever want to see him on PP1.
Maybe PP2 but ideally not.

That would actually be ideal because he would inflate his value VERY nicely and we could get 1-2 very good pieces back to keep the cupboards full!

 

[Coach G]

It would change everything for the team.
We all see his talent and pedigree but he has seemed a long shot to achieve that in the NHL.

The side bar of that is he would potentially price himself off the team by doing so.

I think Lowry can improve on his numbers from last year.
But I don't ever want to see him on PP1.
Maybe PP2 but ideally not.

I mostly agree, but if you don't want Lowry on the PP (neither do I), I think that there's very little chance that he could actually improve his numbers from last year. Unless by "numbers" you meant something other than scoring.

 

[scarbrow21]

Also, I believe when Chevy got Kulikov and Mason it was 2 of his 3 targets. If rumours are true, he was looking for a centre that went in the first 3 days. This led me to believe we were chasing one of Bonino or Gagner.

I was hoping for Thornton myself on a massive overpayment but that was a pipe dream and I knew it

 

[lomiller1]

I'd like to see Connor move up to the top six and MP move to the third line with Roslo and Armia.

I wouldn’t give Roslovic (or Petan for that matter) anything. If they take the #3C spot then great, but I see no reason to “try them thereâ€, if they don’t take the spot put them in the AHL and bring them up if/when an offensive forward gets injured.

 

[lomiller1]

Thanks Garret!

With Little being injured for so long, wouldn't Perreault have faced tougher matchups at Centre? That would impact his production. Then he, himself, was injured, and it took him awhile to recover fully.

If the optimum roster splits Wheeler, Schiefele and Perreault and with the abundance of wingers doesn't it make sense to try Perreault back at Centre?

Ehlers Scheifele Laine
Petan Little Wheeler
Connor Perreault Dano
Copp Lowry Armia
Matthias/Tanev

Because Lowry is a capable third line Centre, then when the team is trailing in the third period:

Ehlers Scheifele Laine
Perreault Little Wheeler
Connor Lowry Dano
Petan Copp Armia
Matthias/Tanev

I’d like to see Lowry in the #3C spot with a little bit more offensive help then he’s had. His gets to the right places and gets shots from those places. Based on that I think he can be 20 goal scorer in the right situation. Maybe he just doesn’t have the hands or shooting skill but I’d still like to have an extended look. What I’d like to see
Laine – Scheifele – Ehlers (or Wheeler)
Connor – Little – Wheeler (or Ehlers)
Perreault – Lowry – Armia
Dano – Copp - ?