Player Discussion: BIG Adam Lowry

[Bristo]

Adam's usage is like a barometer to me - if he's playing on the fourth line, our team is in good shape. He can play third line C when we're in a pinch, but I think he's a better-than-average 4th line C.

If he's able to have the numbers we had last year on the 4th line, we're sitting pretty.

 

[Weezeric]

Adam's usage to me is like a barometer to me - if he's playing on the fourth line, our team is in good shape. He can play third line C when we're in a pinch, but I think he's a better-than-average 4th line C.

If he's able to have the numbers we had last year on the 4th line, we're sitting pretty.

How many 4th liners had 29 points last year? I don't understand the need to score more goals. The jets need to allow less goals. Lowry is an excellent defensive player. The jets need more of those, not less.

 

[Weezeric]

I could see that if he's played with offensive talent consistently & keeps his 1st PP role. I don't think that's optimal player usage though.

Can we retire the Lowry pp usage narrative already? He was 8th among jets forwards in pp toi/GP and he was productive in those minutes.

Who is the jets player who is going to get >35 points and play better defensively than Lowry on the 3rd line?

 

[garret9]

How many 4th liners had 29 points last year? I don't understand the need to score more goals. The jets need to allow less goals. Lowry is an excellent defensive player. The jets need more of those, not less.

I'm not opposed to Lowry on line 3 or line 4 depending on roster composition... that said...

A goal for is not worth less than a goal against. In fact, it's worth *very slightly* more; the lower scoring the game is, the more luck involved in standings.

I wouldn't use points scored on special teams as part of a measurement of where a player should play in terms of lines.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

He would be more valuable as a 4th liner because I think he would dominate other 4th lines in the league. He is serviceable as a 3rd line center for now I think until Roslovic is ready to assume that role, and that might be as close as sometime this season

 

[Huffer]

This thread needs more Gump.

 

[EastRiver]

This thread needs more Gump.

Where is Gump? I haven't seen him around much lately.

 

[Huffer]

Where is Gump? I haven't seen him around much lately.

Not sure, he's been absent for a while now unfortunately.

 

[Weezeric]

I'm not opposed to Lowry on line 3 or line 4 depending on roster composition... that said...

A goal for is not worth less than a goal against. In fact, it's worth *very slightly* more; the lower scoring the game is, the more luck involved in standings.

I wouldn't use points scored on special teams as part of a measurement of where a player should play in terms of lines.

I don't disagree with anything you've said but there's a reason 14 or 15 out of 16 playoff teams are in the top 20 of goals against every year. I don't see teams like Dallas or Toronto being ultimately successful. You need to be good defensively and that's more than just goaltending.

 

[Gabe Kupari]

The only thing that Lowry line was missing last year was a sniper...

Go Connor Lowry Armia and look out really

Matthias had tons of chances to score... Armia set him up once a game at times... Guy couldnt buy a goal... Maurice put Connor with Lowry and Armia to end the year and they looked darn good.

 

[GNP]

I don't disagree with anything you've said but there's a reason 14 or 15 out of 16 playoff teams are in the top 20 of goals against every year. I don't see teams like Dallas or Toronto being ultimately successful. You need to be good defensively and that's more than just goaltending.

Good point Weezeric - that's very important,( goals against) and the Jet's just "have to control" stupid penalties, that will go a long ways to reducing their goals against stats, and vault them to success. Can Maurice get this under control, like a good coach should be able to--hmmmh-I wonder ???

 

[jetsforever]

Solid 4th liner.
Works hard and is a big body.
Nothing more, nothing less

Poor man's Brian Boyle

 

[ps241]

Good point Weezeric - that's very important,( goals against) and the Jet's just "have to control" stupid penalties, that will go a long ways to reducing their goals against stats, and vault them to success. Can Maurice get this under control, like a good coach should be able to--hmmmh-I wonder ???

No I don't think he can control their penalties taken IMO. He will be highly reliant on improved goaltending and maybe an improved PK to reduce the goals.

 

[TannedBum]

The only thing that Lowry line was missing last year was a sniper...

+ Creativity. Connor brings both. CLA will be offensively wise from another planet compared to MLA.

 

[ps241]

+ Creativity. Connor brings both. CLA will be offensively wise from another planet compared to MLA.

I agree with you on this. KC is a game breaker and although we only got a glimpse of that line together in the last game you could see Connor brought another dimension to it. I don't know if that is the route PMo will go and there is always line juggling but if he does I expect that line to be more of a scoring threat. That stint in the AHL was gold.

 

[10Ducky10]

Barring inuries, I expect to to see far less line juggling...if my memory serves me, Lowry was missing far more Armia setups than Matthias. Connor won't be missing those.

 

[garret9]

I don't disagree with anything you've said but there's a reason 14 or 15 out of 16 playoff teams are in the top 20 of goals against every year. I don't see teams like Dallas or Toronto being ultimately successful. You need to be good defensively and that's more than just goaltending.

I don't completely disagree with you either. I did say, improving goals against does matter.

To dig in deeper to your PO trend analysis, however, we do see that historically:
1) team offense (shot generation) is the largest driver of making into the POs
2) goaltending (save percentage) matters a lot
3) team defense (shot suppression) still matters, but less than the previous too
4) finishing talent (shooting percentage) matters the least
Of course, this ignores special teams and penalty differentials, which is about 40% of the goals, and so matters a lot too. That said, there is some correlation to EV talent and special teams and penalty differential performance... Just --unfortunately-- the Jets have been one of the exceptions there.

One caveat: Defense impacts goals against through shot quality... but --due to high variance of goals and the confounding impact of goaltending talent-- it doesn't correlate with shot quality substantially. That said, there is more to defense than shot suppression. So, we can use save percentage as a proxy of goaltending performance + random variance much more so than defensive shot quality performance.

 

[PhilJets]

Lowry is underrated

Most people expectation

1st line 80 - 100 pts
2nd line 60 - 80 pts
3rd line 40 - 50 points and can shut people down like a boss
4th line 20 - 40 points

Lowry is already is a good 3rd line c. He will still get better.

Him and Schiefele will be the key if this team wins a cup. Well a decent goalie also.

 

[Constable]

If Lowry is one of your keys to a cup you're not making it out of the 1st round.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

If Lowry is one of your keys to a cup you're not making it out of the 1st round.

Are 4th lines not important in the playoffs? My assumption regarding people's thoughts regarding Lowry are that we're in good shape if he's our 4th line center.

 

[truck]

Lowry is underrated

Most people expectation

1st line 80 - 100 pts
2nd line 60 - 80 pts
3rd line 40 - 50 points and can shut people down like a boss
4th line 20 - 40 points

Lowry is already is a good 3rd line c. He will still get better.

Him and Schiefele will be the key if this team wins a cup. Well a decent goalie also.

The bolded numbers are wacky. 80 points for a secondliner hasn't happened for decades. 40 points for a 3rd liner is pretty ridic too, never mind 50.

 

[truck]

The only thing that Lowry line was missing last year was a sniper...

Go Connor Lowry Armia and look out really

Matthias had tons of chances to score... Armia set him up once a game at times... Guy couldnt buy a goal... Maurice put Connor with Lowry and Armia to end the year and they looked darn good.

While this anecdote pops up repeatedly, it is contrary to fact.

Facts:

• Mattias was the only proven scorer on that line.
• Armia is a shooter first, not a passer. Pure volume shooter who doesn't shoot a high percentage.
• Lowry was the most frequent passer on that line.

Their problems were not singular. They could grind along the walls, but they struggled to get pucks on net. The lack of shots was a bigger problem than a low shooting percentage, but both contributed to them being a bad 3rd line.

 

[Imcanadianeh]

The bolded numbers are wacky. 80 points for a secondliner hasn't happened for decades. 40 points for a 3rd liner is pretty ridic too, never mind 50.

That's the point. It seems like many people have unrealistic expectations of what 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th line players should be doing/getting points wise.

 

[garret9]

Lowry is underrated

Most people expectation

1st line 80 - 100 pts
2nd line 60 - 80 pts
3rd line 40 - 50 points and can shut people down like a boss
4th line 20 - 40 points

Lowry is already is a good 3rd line c. He will still get better.

Him and Schiefele will be the key if this team wins a cup. Well a decent goalie also.

Lowry is a decent 3rd line centre. I'm not against him being centre.

That said:
You don't use non-5v5 scoring to determine whether or not a person scored well for their depth position for 5v5 ice time.
And you should also use rates --or the very least 5v5 pt/gp-- not aggregate.

Lowry could be a fourth line player or a third line player and have no impact on how much PP or PK ice time he gets. Who cares how many points Lowry makes while on the PP or PK when we're talking about how much ice time he gets for evens?

At 5v5 Lowry scored 1.1 points for every 60 5v5 minutes. That's the norm for him, as he put up 1.1 and 1.2 the previous two seasons.

The median scoring rates for different groupings of ice times are:
2.0 for first line players
1.7 for second line players
1.5 for third line players
1.0 for fourth line players + 13th forward

So, looking at scoring alone, Lowry has never performed more than as a good fourth line player.

Again, I want to stress, that doesn't mean he's a fourth line player at best.
There are other things Lowry does that makes him better than his scoring numbers.

 

[garret9]

If you want to get a better idea of Lowry's performance at evens and where he deserves to be on the roster, we can look at GAR, since it combines his low scoring with things he does much better. It adds the defensive side, along with tilting the ice, and adjusts for usage.

Keep in mind, there are 90 first line positions. So, rankings of 1-90 (1st), 91-180 (2nd), and 181-270 (3rd) are what you should keep in mind.

Lowry's Ice Time

Lowry ranked 63rd in the NHL for total ice time for all forwards.
Lowry ranked 96th in the NHL for total EV ice time for all forwards.
In part due to being healthy for all 82 games and in part due to Maurice liking Lowry, Lowry got a LOT of ice.

Lowry's Impact

Lowry ranked 96th in Overall GAR.
Lowry ranked 129th in EV GAR.
This suggests Lowry gave the positive impact of a 2nd line forward.

Breaking it down into it's individual components, we can see how Lowry drives wins:
Lowry ranked 181st in EV Offense (mostly due to his positive impact on linemates as his scoring is weak)
Lowry ranked 22nd in EV Defense
Lowry ranked 62nd in PP Offense
Lowry ranked 273rd in Penalty Draw
Lowry ranked 96th in Penalty Take
Lowry ranked 22nd in Face Off Win Value

The issue is that Lowry generally got more ice time than his performance suggested for evens. Being 96th in overall impact with 63rd in ice time is not great. Being 129th in EV impact is not as great when you are 96th in EV ice time.

Lowry's Impact Relative to Ice Time

Lowry ranked 123rd in Overall Impact per Minute
Lowry ranked 143rd in Even Strength Impact per Minute

For components:
Lowry ranked 246th in EV Offense per min
Lowry ranked 79th in EV Defense per min
Lowry ranked 99th in PP Offense per min
Lowry ranked 310th in Penalty Draw per min
Lowry ranked 289th in Penalty Take per min
Lowry ranked 49th in Face Off Impact per min

Take Home

1) Lowry drives offensive and scores like a fourth line player
2) His defensive impact makes him a lot better than a fourth line player
3) He probably should be on the 2nd PP unit rather than the 1st

If you are looking at pure impact, Lowry could be passable as a 2nd line forward...
That said, I don't like specialized defensive players on the top two lines.
This is why I'm okay with Lowry as a 3rd line centre *with the right wingers and deployment*.

The best I ever saw Lowry was when he was with two of Frolik, Stempniak, and Perreault.

Last season rankings in EV Offense per min:
Perreault 20th
Stempniak 158th
Frolik ranked 160th
Matthias 257th
Armia 250th
Dano 278th
Copp 280th

I think Lowry can be on a 3rd line that does very well, but Matthias and Dano had weaker EVO/60 years than norm, and Armia and Copp haven't shown to drive offense at the NHL level (at least yet).

If you are putting him with guys like Mathias, Armia, Copp, and Dano (and these players don't improve offensive driving over last season), I would rather the Lowry line as a fourth line.
If you are putting him with guys like Perreault, Ehlers, Connor, etc., I would rather the Lowry line as a 3rd line.
I think this would if you got one player from each group, third line would still be optimal deployment for Lowry.

That's the way I look at the numbers and interpret the optimal usage from them.