Speculation: Babcock Turning Matthews Into A Checker & The Leafs Into Boring Chumps

[Gary Nylund]

Absolutely not. What I want is for people to acknowledge his very real flaws so that a reasonable discussion could be had.

Reasonable discussion is always good. I think part of the problem is that 90% of the "criticism" is nothing more than people spewing for no good reason. That drowns out the 10% of criticism that is thoughtful and worth discussing but I guess that's the nature of this place, what can you do?

 

[thewave]

You never complained once when Marner was on the 4th line in fact you seemed happy about it. Now that is your favourite player it is unfair and mistreatment and picking on poor Willy.

What was the name of the thread you started with Nylander as well as Gardiner.

Saying Kadri is your favourite is a joke and anyone who has been on these boards for a long time knows it.

I explained why Polak is playing over Carrick as the puck mover position is filled on that pairing and Borgman needed a more stable D man as a partner and he has thrived with Polak as his partner.

I asked you to count icings and then perhaps you could see for yourself that Polak does not simply ice the puck when he gets it like you claim. So either provide stats that supports your claim or move on. You claim that it is easy to do so why not do so. But remember you have to chart all d man icings so as to have a real data to compare.

Are you saying all of Polak penalties are stupid? Sure seems like you are.

I am not a Polak fan but as a Leaf fan I can see why he is playing ahead of Carrick.

I also never complained when Nylander was demoted to the 4th line. He started playing terrible. It's in the post history, I was one of the first people on his case.

Nylander was executing every pass, every play with freakish efficiency. That's not the case now. Jake Gardiner went +30 or better and was our best defender and took over 1st pairing duty. The titles were based on the situation at the time. Both players are good players.

Even if I count icing and penalties I need to do it over many games. I do however know that Polak ices the puck more than anyone on this team just by observation and memory. Is there a site that tracks icings?

Kadri has always had my support except for a period of time when his off ice issues came out. You or anyone can research that. I have posts in 2014 calling him our 3rd line C of the future but also saying that has bottom tier 1C potential. That call is essentially correct right now as he is playing the role of shut down C for us now.

Your opinion of Polak is simply being challenged. I don't believe that is the case with him and argued why with stats.

Polak takes penalties because he makes mistakes. I don't know if you played hockey but generally people out of position are forced to take penalties or ice the puck. It's their lack of ability translating into frustrations and error.

I am of the opinion Carrick is simply better. Simple as that.

 

[thewave]

I mean if we're just looking at recent results, then what about Marner and Matthews?

Marner scores a goal once every solar eclipse. He is very soft and weak, probably the softest and weakest player in the league. He spends more time sprawled out on the ice than he does skating. His shot is easily the worst shot of all-time in the NHL.

Matthews has been day-to-day for god knows how long and has looked awful since the initial injury.

Are these players we want to lock-up long-term and tie up cap space?

I get your point. I don't know if it's as bad as you say (lol) but I do understand what you are getting at and there are agreeable items listed.

 

[Bluelines]

I mean if we're just looking at recent results, then what about Marner and Matthews?

Marner scores a goal once every solar eclipse. He is very soft and weak, probably the softest and weakest player in the league. He spends more time sprawled out on the ice than he does skating. His shot is easily the worst shot of all-time in the NHL.

Marner has been so poor this year I've actually thought he may be better served with some time on the Marlies. Sophomore slump?

 

[Mr Hockey]

From what I've heard and read about analytics use around the league, we shouldn't be so quick to say that they are better than the public ones. A lot of them are based on a hockey persons perspective, they use stats that a hockey guy feels makes sense rather than one that has been shown to have predictive or descriptive value. Edmonton raved over Russell because he gets the puck out of the zone more than almost anybody in the league. They used stats that showed how good he is at chipping the puck out, while not actually looking at some measurement to see if this is effective. In the end, Russell's zone exit attempts result in the opposition getting the puck more than almost anybody, and that is more detrimental in the long run. I know some teams still use incredibly flawed measurements like scoring chance +/-.

Like @Daisy Jane says, let's not discount that we are actually slumping as a team lately and that's why the numbers have been bad. How much of the numbers discrepancy is because we came out the gate in a frenzy but have had, for example, Matthews injured and Nylander slumping lately?

I still feel like the whole thing smells of overcompensation to a problem that got exaggerated because Andersen couldn't save a puck, so a solution was implemented that looks better than it is because Andersen could pretty much put two nets out there and still be a competitive goalie. But who knows really?

It's also a good point by @Daisy Jane (and others I've seen raise this) that it's too simplistic to just look at good results in one system, bad in another. Teams adapt, and we need to adapt with them. We saw before the change how we ran into a brick wall when teams dropped the forecheck on us and set up in the neutral zone. We need a counter-punch when that happens.

You actually think a NHL stats tracking company can collect more detailed stats then the leafs analytic and video departments? lol

What teams are you talking about that still use incredibly flawed measurements like scoring chance +/-? How do you how those teams define scoring chances?

 

[Mr Hockey]

Marner has been so poor this year I've actually thought he may be better served with some time on the Marlies. Sophomore slump?

agree.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Goaltending has been masking our flaws for awhile now and it's blatantly obvious.

One of my favorite things about Babcock is his player development capabilities (Kadri, Gardiner, Rielly mainly, I mean Gardiner's been pretty trash this year but he was great last year).

One of the things I dislike about him most is this breakout system he's trying to impose. This is truly the "square peg and round hole" phenomenon. With how our defensemen move the puck and how well our forwards skate - there is no way in hell our breakout should be this bad.

What the Babcock worship crew needs to understand is that NHL coaches are 100% prone to stupid mistakes - that was what my Sutter example was meant to convey. And they seriously need to stop using the appeal to authority nonsense, it's getting incredibly tiring.

Explain Babcocks breakout system to me? when I wanted to debate the analytics people back in the day, I had to learn it first.

 

[IPS]

Who are the ones determining these so called "real flaws", the Fans?

Are internet posters on a message board, with zero coaching experience really qualified to identify the flaws in a world class coach with a winning resume at all levels?

Fans are certainly allowed to express their own opinions on issues, but not sure that makes them right and Babcock wrong.

You damn right fans can point them out. I can point you to a lot of Kings fans who were pointing "real flaws" of world class coach Darryl Sutter that was holding back their team. Kings lost depth and Sutter needed to adjust his system to get more of his star players (Doughty and Kopitar). World class coach Darryl Sutter refused to make such adjustments and he got rightfully fired. The new guy in town there seems to have the Kings right back on track, Kopitar and Doughty are on pace for their best years. Looks like the fans were onto something afterall eh?

If you'd like to have a discussion with me of how "world class coaches" can be wrong, we can start with that

 

[Gary Nylund]

You actually think a NHL stats tracking company can collect more detailed stats then the leafs analytic and video departments? lol

What teams are you talking about that still use incredibly flawed measurements like scoring chance +/-? How do you how those teams define scoring chances?

What's wrong with scoring chance +-? Of course it's a subjective thing but assuming it's done right and done consistently it seems like a very useful stat.

 

[Mr Hockey]

What's wrong with scoring chance +-? Of course it's a subjective thing but assuming it's done right and done consistently it seems like a very useful stat.

Nith, said it was flawed not me.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Nith, said it was flawed not me.

Ah OK then, maybe he'll explain then. TBH I had never even heard of this stat before. Maybe it's something that's tracked league wide and in that case, the problem could be that someone different does at each arena making consistency impossible. But if a team had one guy do it for every game that they play, that would be another story.

 

[Nithoniniel]

You actually think a NHL stats tracking company can collect more detailed stats then the leafs analytic and video departments?

It takes a lot of... creativity.. to extrapolate that from what I said.

What teams are you talking about that still use incredibly flawed measurements like scoring chance +/-? How do you how those teams define scoring chances?

It doesn't matter how they define scoring chances. It's still a flawed measurement due to 1) sample size issues, 2) subjectivity, 3) ignoring everything that leads up to a play, to focus solely on the last few actions.

As for what teams, the mentions I've seen about this from people in the business hasn't named team names, it's come up when they talk about how teams invest in getting tools to get data, but then have people in charge and working with it that don't have any background or education in statistics or analytics at all.

I'm sure there are some teams that have a great process, but it shouldn't be taken for granted.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Ah OK then, maybe he'll explain then. TBH I had never even heard of this stat before. Maybe it's something that's tracked league wide and in that case, the problem could be that someone different does at each arena making consistency impossible. But if a team had one guy do it for every game that they play, that would be another story.

All these advanced stats sites like Corsica collect info from a nhl data base and apply it to there site how ever they want.

Leafs have 3 maybe more guys that track there game stats and Babs/they also have there video analysis guy to break down or collect data from games.

 

[Not My Tempo]

Once again it depends on how much you value “analytics” but Marner has been playing better this year than last year. In terms of actual production, he’s producing assists at a rate greater than last year and the thing holding him back are his goal totals, which is an issue. He’s scored 2 goals this year and his ixGF is 6.13. So he is underperforming which is most likely due to his shooting percentage. That being said 6.13 goals in 32 games played still isn’t good. Marner doesn’t really help himself though and idk why, but the guy doesn’t really shoot when he has chances. Idk if it’s because he lacks confidence in his shot or whatever. The number of times I’ve seen him be around the right circle with a clear shot on net only to try and pass it through a couple legs and sticks hoping for a backdoor deflection is honestly too high. Same with passing plays. Bozak set him up beautifully a couple games ago and he tried passing it back to JVR. I’m not a phychologist, but it honestly feels like Marners gotten it into his head that he’s a playmaker and only that. He just always seems to be deferring the puck to his teammates

 

[Nithoniniel]

Ah OK then, maybe he'll explain then. TBH I had never even heard of this stat before. Maybe it's something that's tracked league wide and in that case, the problem could be that someone different does at each arena making consistency impossible. But if a team had one guy do it for every game that they play, that would be another story.

The problem is that they give out pluses and minuses for people who do good or bad things directly related to scoring chances. Subjectivity becomes a large issue, because basically it becomes an extension of the eye test. If you like a player from the start, you're more likely to like what he does, and you're more likely to attribute him accordingly. Plus, the actual valuation for those attributions aren't statistically based. So if you put a guy in charge who loves big slappers from the blue, and loves guys who throws themselves in front of them, he will be looking at scoring chances that are not actually dangerous, and giving players credit for things that are not all that valuable.

And then you have the transition issue. Dan Girardi can't move the puck out, so he gets five scoring chances against him. He does a nice defensive play on three of them, and gets credit for it. So he ends up +3 here, because the system doesn't take into account that he can't get the puck over the red line, it just looks at the scoring chances themselves. Meanwhile, Strålman moves the puck really well so he only has two scoring chances against, but he screws up on one. He ends up -1.

Some versions only credit pluses for offense and minuses for defense, but even so you end up with Girardi more effective than Strålman. I used those two as an example as metrics like these were supposed to be responsible for Strålman being let go by Rangers.

 

[Gary Nylund]

The problem is that they give out pluses and minuses for people who do good or bad things directly related to scoring chances. Subjectivity becomes a large issue, because basically it becomes an extension of the eye test. If you like a player from the start, you're more likely to like what he does, and you're more likely to attribute him accordingly. Plus, the actual valuation for those attributions aren't statistically based. So if you put a guy in charge who loves big slappers from the blue, and loves guys who throws themselves in front of them, he will be looking at scoring chances that are not actually dangerous, and giving players credit for things that are not all that valuable.

And then you have the transition issue. Dan Girardi can't move the puck out, so he gets five scoring chances against him. He does a nice defensive play on three of them, and gets credit for it. So he ends up +3 here, because the system doesn't take into account that he can't get the puck over the red line, it just looks at the scoring chances themselves. Meanwhile, Strålman moves the puck really well so he only has two scoring chances against, but he screws up on one. He ends up -1.

Some versions only credit pluses for offense and minuses for defense, but even so you end up with Girardi more effective than Strålman. I used those two as an example as metrics like these were supposed to be responsible for Strålman being let go by Rangers.

HMM, OK that's interesting thanks. The part I bolded - I can see that being badly flawed. I remember reading a post a year or two ago on the main boards that basically made that point that corsi/fenwick were useless when it comes to judging individual players. It was very persuasive, I wish I had saved it. And when I first thought about this particular stat just a little while ago I was thinking what could this be used for? The only thing I came up with was that it could be a gauge for overall team play but I think any good coach should know how his team is doing so it didn't seem like it would have much value. And I'm not sure how valuable any stats are when it comes to individual player assessment.

Not sure I made much sense there, oh well end of ramble I guess.

 

[Mess]

You damn right fans can point them out. I can point you to a lot of Kings fans who were pointing "real flaws" of world class coach Darryl Sutter that was holding back their team. Kings lost depth and Sutter needed to adjust his system to get more of his star players (Doughty and Kopitar). World class coach Darryl Sutter refused to make such adjustments and he got rightfully fired. The new guy in town there seems to have the Kings right back on track, Kopitar and Doughty are on pace for their best years. Looks like the fans were onto something afterall eh?

If you'd like to have a discussion with me of how "world class coaches" can be wrong, we can start with that

Coaches are fired all the time and certainly not infallible. When the results aren't there then they get dismissed based on performance.

That coach however is fired by a qualified GM and replaced with another qualified coach who will deploy a different system and get better success. The fans themselves didn't have anything to do with that, they only complained about all the losing.

Babcock took a 3oth place Leafs team and coached them into the playoffs, and this year he has the Leafs in the top 5 of the NHL standings and top 5 in goals scored.

Where is the "real flaws" that you speak of?.

Too me it seems Babcock is getting success not failure from the team, and if you listened and believed message board posters, than the only thing holding the Leafs back from a Stanley Cup is line combos and once Babs starts listening to these message board suggestions and using their input everything will be great.

 

[Mr Hockey]

It doesn't matter how they define scoring chances. It's still a flawed measurement due to 1) sample size issues, 2) subjectivity, 3) ignoring everything that leads up to a play, to focus solely on the last few actions.

So, now tell me what public advanced stats that are not a flawed measurement?

 

[Nithoniniel]

So, now tell me what public advanced stats that are not a flawed measurement?

They are better as they address sample size issues, subjectivity is much less of a concern, and it is result-driven so nothing in the data itself will be missing, just in the extrapolation.

It's impossible to have any kind of evaluation system that isn't flawed.

 

[stickty111]

The NHL doesn't use different analytics to the public, they have access to more advanced analytics and there is a difference. They probably use everything. I never disputed that the Leafs use analytics that I don't know about.

My claim is that these analytics probably don't overrule the ones I do have access to, and that since they are unknown it's pretty unreasonable to use them as a defense of the way the team is playing.

If you agree that what Babcock is doing might not be right and he should move towards the middle, why hasn't he yet? It made sense originally because Andersen couldn't stop anything, but for the last ~20 games or so we've been totally carried by goaltending while our team has floundered. it's getting to be too long to be mere tinkering, but looks more like a real issue is forming.

Yes stats don't paint the whole picture, but they still paint enough of one to draw conclusions from. Yes it's not the end goal to be playing like this, but that doesn't mean it's still acceptable.

Why hasnt he yet? Well one of his flaws are being stubborn so that might be it.

 

[ToMaLe]

Coaches are fired all the time and certainly not infallible. When the results aren't there then they get dismissed based on performance.

That coach however is fired by a qualified GM and replaced with another qualified coach who will deploy a different system and get better success. The fans themselves didn't have anything to do with that, they only complained about all the losing.

Babcock took a 3oth place Leafs team and coached them into the playoffs, and this year he has the Leafs in the top 5 of the NHL standings and top 5 in goals scored.

Where is the "real flaws" that you speak of?.

Too me it seems Babcock is getting success not failure from the team, and if you listened and believed message board posters, than the only thing holding the Leafs back from a Stanley Cup is line combos and once Babs starts listening to these message board suggestions and using their input everything will be great.

Who coached this 30th place Leafs team you speak of?

 

[stickty111]

Well. you are assuming that Babcock (or the assistant coaches) communicate with Nylander on a daily basis. Nylander's effort doesn't need to be "miles ahead of Bozak" his effort level needs to be consistent to where Babs needs it to be to make him dependable. but he's not consistent. and he's not 100 percent dependable. Yet. once he shows that it's over.

You can't really be "if you were in Nylander's shoes." because you don't know how Nylander takes coaching and criticisms. YOU'D feel that way - but i would bet that since you are that way Babcock wouldn't treat you the same way he's treating Nylander.

We wanted an organization that make players earn everything, and we have it and yet it's stilla lot of "well, omg, what if people tease him." so who gives a crap, as long as he develops into the player he's needed. (and the reason why he's not harder on the veterans again is that if you want them to be traded you can't be THAT hard on them. they are who they are. if they had say 4 years left here i bet you they'd be treated a lot differently than impending UFAs who probably won't be here come July 1st).

I love Nylander but your right. His effort is not consistent. The folks saying that Babcock isnt fair with Nylander, you guys do realize Sheldon Keefe also had the same issues with Nylander. Are we going to say Keefe wasnt fair with Nylander either?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I love Nylander but your right. His effort is not consistent. The folks saying that Babcock isnt fair with Nylander, you guys do realize Sheldon Keefe also had the same issues with Nylander. Are we going to say Keefe wasnt fair with Nylander either?

the thing is that last year it would have been fine since Nylander was still getting acclimated to the league and it was more of a developmental season as Babcock stated numerous times. This year however he said he tries to win every night. yeah I'm sure he still wants to instill work ethic into our young players and continue to develop them, but you can't say you try to win every night and staple one of our top offensive talents to the 4th line for multiple games at a time

 

[stickty111]

Who coached this 30th place Leafs team you speak of?

That wasnt Babcock's fault. He had the team playing solid hockey. They just had little talent.
If you want to talk about his flaws, thats fine. He deserves criticism for the way the team is playing lately, but you cant start blaming him for stuff that you just mentioned.

 

[ToMaLe]

That wasnt Babcock's fault. He had the team playing solid hockey. They just had little talent.
If you want to talk about his flaws, thats fine. He deserves criticism for the way the team is playing lately, but you cant start blaming him for stuff that you just mentioned.

OK Now I got it, if the team sucks its the players, and if they do good its the coach, got ya!