Around the League Part 8: Welcome to the league Vegas, and Duchene discussion

[Primetime8]

The Red Wings are doing an incredible job of tanking these last few weeks. I don't believe in reverse order drafting at all. All playoff teams should have an equal chance at every pick.

Unpopular opinion, I know.

 

[Wolfpuck]

vegas go a playoffs

 

[Breakdowns]

vegas go a playoffs

Kill me already

 

[geehaad]

Hainsey is our missing link? Naw.

Why the Toronto Maple Leafs struggle to hold the lead

 

[HisIceness]

The Red Wings are doing an incredible job of tanking these last few weeks. I don't believe in reverse order drafting at all. All playoff teams should have an equal chance at every pick.

Unpopular opinion, I know.

Speaking of the Wings, Ken Holland is coming back.

I would say thats one less team to worry about for the future, but we all know our team will shoot themselves in the foot anyways so it won't matter. I guess we can become golfing buddies with them instead.

vegas go a playoffs

This makes me sad. We've been waiting 9 f***ing years for a return to the playoffs and Vegas comes in their first year and instantly has more points standings wise than we've seen since the 2006 Cup year.

That being said, I can easily see them getting swept in round 1 and they have a hard fall to reality next season. This might be the worst thing to happen to them long-term. Or they could win the Cup and be the next dynasty. Who the hell knows.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

Staal just scored his 40th goal of the season.

To tie the game with 3:15 left.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Staal just scored his 40th goal of the season.

To tie the game with 3:15 left.

Credit for the goal goes to the pass though. In the air, right on his stick.

 

[Canes]

Yet if it were Jordan Staal or some other inferior player, do they have the ability to handle the pass, much less make that sweet finish on the backhand? I doubt it. Anything to discredit Eric though.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Got your panties in a bunch for no reason.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Thought this was interesting:

The odds that a penalty will be called on the home team (H) based on who the first 4 penalties of the game were called against.

 

[Ole Gil]

Thought this was interesting:

The odds that a penalty will be called on the home team (H) based on who the first 4 penalties of the game were called against.

I wonder if there's a correlation between penalties and having the lead.

 

[cptjeff]

I wonder if there's a correlation between penalties and having the lead.

Year in and year out, we are always one of the least penalized teams in the league, often the absolute least penalized, so I'm gonna go with 'not really'.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Thought this was interesting:

The odds that a penalty will be called on the home team (H) based on who the first 4 penalties of the game were called against.

If I'm reading those numbers correctly, perhaps the most interesting conclusion is that the road team is nearly twice as likely to get that killer 5th penalty in a row.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

If I'm reading those numbers correctly, perhaps the most interesting conclusion is that the road team is nearly twice as likely to get that killer 5th penalty in a row.

Nah, the bottom row says that if the first 4 penalties are against the home team, the odds the 5th one will be against the home team is very low.

Conversely, if the first 4 penalties are against the away team, the odds the 5th penalty is against the home team is very high. That's the top row.

That's not very surprising, since it's assumed the officials will try and balance out the penalties/not pile on one team. Even though they shouldn't.

But it's the middle columns that are the most interesting (to me). The ones where the penalties are even between home and away after 4 penalty calls. It seems that the 5th call can be determined (a bit) by who took the first penalty of the game. If the home team took the first penalty in an evenly-called game, they have a much lower chance of getting the 5th than if the away team took the first penalty.

Also, for some reason, it's more likely for a penalty sequence to go AHHHH than HAAHH. Might be explained away as the home team imploding after failing to score on their first PP though.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Nah, the bottom row says that if the first 4 penalties are against the home team, the odds the 5th one will be against the home team is very low.

Conversely, if the first 4 penalties are against the away team, the odds the 5th penalty is against the home team is very high. That's the top row.

Again, unless I'm misreading -- the chart says that if the home team takes 4 penalties in a row, they have around a 20% chance of taking the 5th penalty. Whereas if the away team takes 4 penalties in a row, they have around a 30% chance of taking the 5th. That's a pretty big swing in likelihood, considering it should theoretically be the same for either team (assuming home and away teams objectively commit the same number of fouls).

But it's the middle columns that are the most interesting (to me). The ones where the penalties are even between home and away after 4 penalty calls. It seems that the 5th call can be determined (a bit) by who took the first penalty of the game. If the home team took the first penalty in an evenly-called game, they have a much lower chance of getting the 5th than if the away team took the first penalty.

This seems logical if we assume that officials try to "call it even". If the first penalty was on the home team, that means 2 of the last 3 were on the away team. If you're actively trying to keep it even, naturally the next penalty would go to the home team so you don't create an avalanche of power plays for one side. I think the middle part of the chart is basically exposing "game management" of a sort, though it's interesting to note that penalty sequence appears to be more important than home ice in these situations.

Also, for some reason, it's more likely for a penalty sequence to go AHHHH than HAAHH.

It doesn't actually show which of the sequences is most likely to happen. The chart only addresses likelihood of a H or A result in a given circumstance. I'd imagine AHHHH is a rare outcome compared to HAAHH.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Ah, I see what you're saying. Yeah, that's odd.

 

[Lempo]

Also, for some reason, it's more likely for a penalty sequence to go AHHHH than HAAHH.

Where have all the good men gone
And where are all the gods?
Where's the streetwise Hercules to fight the rising odds?
Isn't there a white knight upon a fiery steed?
Late at night I toss and I turn
And I dream of what I need

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Well wishes to JR. Losing a parent is never easy.

 

[HisIceness]

Yeah, thats impressive.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

Hawks starter got injured before the game. His backup got injured about five minutes into the third period.

They are actually having to play their emergency backup.

This is against Winnipeg too. I’d be shitting bricks if I was that guy.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

Hawks starter got injured before the game. His backup got injured about five minutes into the third period.

They are actually having to play their emergency backup.

This is against Winnipeg too. I’d be ****ting bricks if I was that guy.

He didn’t give up a goal. He saw seven shots. I think we just found our Darling replacement for next season

 

[cptjeff]

Yeah, thats impressive.

Pssh, scrub. He needs AHL playoff experience.

 

[Canes]

He didn’t give up a goal. He saw seven shots. I think we just found our Darling replacement for next season

I read the post some guy made about how we just found our next goalie before reading this. I'm still laughing.

If Francis was still GM this offseason, perhaps. And he could have doubled as an accountant for the front office on his days off.

 

[Canes]

Early "playoff" action in the West tonight if anyone wants to watch. Ducks vs Avs, two bubble teams. I expect playoff intensity for sure.

 

[Breakdowns]

Sedin's are retiring, damn, I thought that they would play at least another year