Around the League Part 8: Welcome to the league Vegas, and Duchene discussion

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I don't have a subscription to the Athletic, but on the main board, there's a thread about an article by Dom Luszczyszyn where he used a formula to give players a numerical value based on a bunch of variables and he puts them into "star player" tiers. It's a metric called game score, which uses goals, primary assists, secondary assists, shots on goal, blocked shots, penalty differential, faceoffs, 5-on-5 corsi differential, 5-on-5 goal differential and then he weights them based on the stat's frequency to goals. Only 3 Canes on the entire list. Aho (tier 4), TT (tier 5), Slavin (Tier 5).

Leafs fans must be really torn on this one. Matthews in Tier 1 and Rielly in Tier 2, but Marner and Nylander in Tier 5. Guessing goal scoring is weighted more than assists/secondary assist which helps Aho's case I think.

Nashville has 4 defensemen and a goalie in the top 4 tiers.

It's just a metric and not metric is perfect. In the MB thread, it was said that even Dom said he didn't agree with how some of the players got placed by this formula, but it's worth discussing. Overall, I don't think it's too bad, but there are some outliers for sure. I think it's based on this season only.

 

[GoldiFox]

Looks like he took the points leaders list for 2017-18 and broke it into 5 sections based on position. Obvious Superstars are obvious, but is Marchessault really 2 "tiers" above Aho? Is Gostisbehere really 4 "tiers" above Slavin? Meh.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Scoring is heavily rated, no doubt, but in fairness, that's what wins games today in the NHL. ANA (21st in the NHL) is the only team outside the top 16 in scoring (CLB is tied for 16th) that is in the playoffs. Only the Islanders and Florida are in the top 16 in scoring and aren't in the playoffs as of right now. Islanders we know why and Florida still has a chance.

The formula he used is apparently: Player Game Score = (0.75 * G) + (0.7 * A1) + (0.55 * A2) + (0.075 * SOG) + (0.05 * BLK) + (0.15 * PD) – (0.15 * PT) + (0.01 * FOW) – (0.01 * FOL) + (0.05 * CF) – (0.05 * CA) + (0.15 * GF) – (0.15* GA)

 

[Joe McGrath]

Yeah that metric is skewed towards PP specialists on D. Taking GF and GA in total just completely screws defenseman who are the teams top PK guy and not top PP guy (Slavin). Ryan Pulock plays zero on the PK and he beats Slavin and Provorov.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Yeah that metric is skewed towards PP specialists on D. Taking GF and GA in total just completely screws defenseman who are the teams top PK guy and not top PP guy (Slavin). Ryan Pulock plays zero on the PK and he beats Slavin and Provorov.

So you mean the same as the Norris?

 

[DaveG]

Yeah I can't take a defenseman ranking seriously that has Krug, Barrie, and Reilly over Werenski, Slavin, Provorov, Lindholm, and Trouba.

 

[Joe McGrath]

So you mean the same as the Norris?

Yeah that’s usually bullshit too, but the top of the D-man list isn’t where the discrepancies are, save for maybe Ghost. It’ll be those middle tiers where a guy like Slavin should reside but doesn’t because he kills penalties (and plays for this dumpster fire).

 

[Joe McGrath]

Yeah I can't take a defenseman ranking seriously that has Krug, Barrie, and Reilly over Werenski, Slavin, Provorov, Lindholm, and Trouba.

What’s striking is that it’s 100% obvious why based on the formula, yet that’s still getting used. It took me 30 seconds to figure out what that calculation would do.

 

[GoldiFox]

To gauge the impact of a guy like Slavin I think you would have to use an approach similar to Pro Football Focus. Obviously it is easier to score individual player performance in Football as every play has a start and an end whereas Hockey flows. I'm sure those resources exist to get the raw data when you have an NHL budget. Similar to the "Subjective +/-" thread that was posted here a while back but with a more standardized basis of comparison.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I think any formula he uses might need some tweaking and a few grains of salt included.

 

[DaveG]

To be fair there's no way to accurately quantify just how f***ing bad Scott Darling has been this year in to any kind of equation.

 

[A Star is Burns]

To be fair there's no way to accurately quantify just how ****ing bad Scott Darling has been this year in to any kind of equation.

That much is true, but sadly for him, we were far from his only miss.

 

[DaveG]

That much is true, but sadly for him, we were far from his only miss.

Yeah Chicago in 4th is just "wait what" right now. I'd say the same for New Jersey last but then again I'm STILL not a believer in that team at all. As I said in the predictions thread it's like that time Colorado fluked their way to winning the Central, and bookended it by two seasons of being dead last. Aside from Taylor Hall everything about the eye test on that team screams that they're pulling it out of their ass, and I wouldn't be surprised if they crash back down hard next season.

On the other hand, Vegas 4th from last... I don't know where that's coming from. Literally all the underlying numbers I've seen on them aside from this guys formula say they're legit.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Oh I agree. I never believed in Jersey. Even if they make it I suspect they'll get destroyed and I wouldn't be surprised if they took a step back next year. They had a really rough stretch in the middle of the season and I thought they'd crash and burn. But Hall and Kinkaid dragged them kicking and screaming to stay in it. Kudos to them for that.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Jake Allen for Scott Darling...who says no?

 

[Stickpucker]

It's rough being a canes and sabres fan the past decade...

So I'm wondering....since you're a fan of both teams....who's roster do you like more going forward? Who do you think is closer to competing? Do you think Lehner would be a good fit for the Canes?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

You guys are missing the whole point of that chart. Contrary to what we've been told for the last 2 years, Aho is a Tier ABOVE Marner and Nylander.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Jake Allen for Scott Darling...who says no?

The Blues?

 

[Stickpucker]

Iirc he did it last year and Jeffrey was high tier.

 

[Lempo]

You guys are missing the whole point of that chart. Contrary to what we've been told for the last 2 years, Aho is a Tier ABOVE Marner and Nylander.

Them sweet Toronno clicks.

 

[Dishface]

So I'm wondering....since you're a fan of both teams....who's roster do you like more going forward? Who do you think is closer to competing? Do you think Lehner would be a good fit for the Canes?

Canes going forward and closer to competing. The sabres f***ed themselves years ago when they thought they could sell the farm and compete once getting Eichel. That decision pushed them back even further as now they are dead last in the league. The only way I'Il think about taking the sabres roster over the canes if they win the lottery and get Dahlin, but the sabres don't do well in the lottery, so I doubt it...

As for Lehner, I can see the canes going after him. He has put up decent numbers on a shitty sabres team. I'd still rather go after Raanta, but Lehner is a good consolation prize. I think a pick and/or a D prospect can get it done, he will not be a Sabres next year.

 

[Stickpucker]

What round pick or what d prospect specifically?

 

[DaveG]

Well, by all signs Raanta has been offered a multi-year deal along the lines of what we gave Darling so not sure he's going to hit the free market.

 

[Dishface]

What round pick or what d prospect specifically?

I'm just spit balling here, but something could be made around 2nd+Carrick/Martin or 3rd+Roy/Gauthier. Remember, he did get traded for a 1st to Ott years back, but I dont think he is worth a 1st in our range.

 

[MinJaBen]

What round pick or what d prospect specifically?

That might not be necessary at all. There has been some speculation that they don't even qualify him this year and he could become an RFA. I'd offer a 3rd for him and see if Buffalo bites for exclusive negotiating rights. Otherwise, wait until July and see if they qualify him at all.