Salary Cap: Armchair Jets GM

[Georgetown Al]

Laine will settle for around the 7.5 give or take mark...

Go Jets Go

 

[surixon]

I got bored and wrote 4 days worth of articles. Here's the first one focusing on forwards.

The Jets will live and die on how they handle their middle RFA talent this Summer, especially on the forward depth. Laine, Wheeler, Trouba, and Hellebuyck are what they are and are appropriately costed, all things considered. It's about managing everyone else to fit into that limit.

Nice article Chief. Your numbers closely match what I have projected for most of the forwards. I do think that you are taking a bit to an odd stance on Conner. Imo he hasn't been handled unfairly at all. He got to start in the NHL at 19 and was only send down when he proved not to be ready. He was then very ordinary in camp the next year and didn't make the team (I would have had him up but a case could be made that others had better camps and deserved the spot more). Once called up he played the rest of the year with our two best players with significant PP time. He may get bridged for Cap purposes but I doubt it is because the org is going out of its way to to make an example of him. As you said he has major deficiencies in his own end, its not like the other kids in Ehlers and Laine haven't seen reduced ice time due to their short comings. It should be expected that he learn to play well away from the puck

 

[WPGChief]

Nice article Chief. Your numbers closely match what I have projected for most of the forwards. I do think that you are taking a bit to an odd stance on Conner. Imo he hasn't been handled unfairly at all. He got to start in the NHL at 19 and was only send down when he proved not to be ready. He was then very ordinary in camp the next year and didn't make the team (I would have had him up but a case could be made that others had better camps and deserved the spot more). Once called up he played the rest of the year with our two best players with significant PP time. He may get bridged for Cap purposes but I doubt it is because the org is going out of its way to to make an example of him. As you said he has major deficiencies in his own end, its not like the other kids in Ehlers and Laine haven't seen reduced ice time due to their short comings. It should be expected that he learn to play well away from the puck

Being bridged for cap purposes is partly my point! Yes, he is 19; yes, he is expected to grow aspects of his game, including in the other two zones; no, it isn't to make an example of him to other players; yes, it pretty much is for the cap.

My belief is that Connor will be treated unfairly not on the ice, but rather in the meeting room. When signing Kyle Connor to (what I foresee to be multiple) bridge contract(s), they will probably be phrasing discussions such as "the only way we could play Connor is with our two best forwards and defencemen, and luckily for him he just happened to get a lot of rebound goals as a result of playing with talented players."

Plus, while I don't agree with the decision, clearly Maurice and Cheveldayoff found it okay to waste another of Connor's ELC years by sending him to the Moose - I don't think they would have done that if they thought they wouldn't be bridging Connor next Summer 2019.

 

[surixon]

Being bridged for cap purposes is partly my point! Yes, he is 19; yes, he is expected to grow aspects of his game, including in the other two zones; no, it isn't to make an example of him to other players; yes, it pretty much is for the cap.

My belief is that Connor will be treated unfairly not on the ice, but rather in the meeting room. When signing Kyle Connor to (what I foresee to be multiple) bridge contract(s), they will probably be phrasing discussions such as "the only way we could play Connor is with our two best forwards and defencemen, and luckily for him he just happened to get a lot of rebound goals as a result of playing with talented players."

Plus, while I don't agree with the decision, clearly Maurice and Cheveldayoff found it okay to waste another of Connor's ELC years by sending him to the Moose - I don't think they would have done that if they thought they wouldn't be bridging Connor next Summer 2019.

I could have just been a message that his performance in camp wasn't good enough to make the team, he certainly wasn't down there long. He isn't the only kid who they have made earn their place on the team. I doubt you see multiple bridges to him either, In my mind you give a three year bridge and then ink him long term after. Plus his treatment wasn't much different then Ehlers or Laine, both got a high dose of Scheifele in their first years to ease him in. I think your reading a bit too much into it but we will see how it plays out.

 

[KingBogo]

Being bridged for cap purposes is partly my point! Yes, he is 19; yes, he is expected to grow aspects of his game, including in the other two zones; no, it isn't to make an example of him to other players; yes, it pretty much is for the cap.

My belief is that Connor will be treated unfairly not on the ice, but rather in the meeting room. When signing Kyle Connor to (what I foresee to be multiple) bridge contract(s), they will probably be phrasing discussions such as "the only way we could play Connor is with our two best forwards and defencemen, and luckily for him he just happened to get a lot of rebound goals as a result of playing with talented players."

Plus, while I don't agree with the decision, clearly Maurice and Cheveldayoff found it okay to waste another of Connor's ELC years by sending him to the Moose - I don't think they would have done that if they thought they wouldn't be bridging Connor next Summer 2019.

And you think this is what they will be saying to him? Because contending teams are always looking to bury guys on the 1st line with their 2 best fowards including a top 5 center and their top pairing in order to keep future contracts as low as possible Yeah that makes sense.

 

[WPGChief]

And you think this is what they will be saying to him? Because contending teams are always looking to bury guys on the 1st line with their 2 best fowards including a top 5 center and their top pairing in order to keep future contracts as low as possible Yeah that makes sense.

Joe Thornton made Jonathan Cheechoo a 50+ goal scorer? If Connor's only asset is to score goals, why wouldn't you put him with players that can consistently and constantly create scoring opportunities while covering for his flaws?

If management constantly bridges him and his play is only good with Scheifele and Wheeler when he gets time with other players, then you can keep him low cost. That's a win for the Jets as a whole, honestly; but you run the risk that Connor does get better in the two other zones can produce without the likes of Scheifele and Wheeler, and gets paid even more substantially. Bridge contracts are a huge gamble - I'd obviously prefer longer term, but there are two parties at the table, with one party trying to manage everyone under a cap and the other party trying to maximize the value for one player as much as possible. Bridging Connor is likely the avenue that the Jets will have to go down - and as such, will have to find ways at the negotiating table to subdue his scoring prowess, such as pointing out his flaws in the other 2/3 of the ice and using (small sample sizes of) examples where Connor didn't do as well without the established and for-sure top players of the Jets.

 

[KingBogo]

Joe Thornton made Jonathan Cheechoo a 50+ goal scorer? If Connor's only asset is to score goals, why wouldn't you put him with players that can consistently and constantly create scoring opportunities while covering for his flaws?

If management constantly bridges him and his play is only good with Scheifele and Wheeler when he gets time with other players, then you can keep him low cost. That's a win for the Jets as a whole, honestly; but you run the risk that Connor does get better in the two other zones can produce without the likes of Scheifele and Wheeler, and gets paid even more substantially. Bridge contracts are a huge gamble - I'd obviously prefer longer term, but there are two parties at the table, with one party trying to manage everyone under a cap and the other party trying to maximize the value for one player as much as possible. Bridging Connor is likely the avenue that the Jets will have to go down - and as such, will have to find ways at the negotiating table to subdue his scoring prowess, such as pointing out his flaws in the other 2/3 of the ice and using (small sample sizes of) examples where Connor didn't do as well without the established and for-sure top players of the Jets.

Think you are off base on this one. Connor came into the NHL with big time pedigree as a mid 1st round pick and then followed it up with one of the most exceptional rookie NCAA seasons of all time. It took him a year in the A, to get his NHL footing but then scored 30+ on a contending team as a rookie playing on the top line. Taking this to some sort of plot to keep his salary low is on the far edge of belief. Far more likely is Connor has another strong season and gets paid accordingly. I'd guess something in the Pastrňák range. Since when do the Jets screw over their top young players.

 

[DJBiffWPG]

Laine will settle for around the 7.5 give or take mark...

Go Jets Go

Keep dreaming...

 

[WPGChief]

Think you are off base on this one. Connor came into the NHL with big time pedigree as a mid 1st round pick and then followed it up with one of the most exceptional rookie NCAA seasons of all time. It took him a year in the A, to get his NHL footing but then scored 30+ on a contending team as a rookie playing on the top line. Taking this to some sort of plot to keep his salary low is on the far edge of belief. Far more likely is Connor has another strong season and gets paid accordingly. I'd guess something in the Pastrňák range. Since when do the Jets screw over their top young players.

Where have I ever said this is some sort of "plot"? There is no conspiracy here. The Jets undoubtedly will continue to maximize Kyle Connor's ability - right now, that ability is goal scoring. So, in that sense it is completely the correct move to pair Connor with Scheifele with Wheeler. I've argued this in the past in my article on optimizing lineups, where (if I may remind you) that was in response to the Jets when they stacked their top 6 leaving the bottom forward lines to be Matthias-Lowry-Armia and Dano-Copp-Tanev. Inserting Connor into the top line and Roslovic into the lineup, along with trading for Stastny later in the season, helped spread the offensive talent throughout the lineup, which I believe was a primary driver for the Jets' success this season.

I simply believe the Jets will intend to keep his cap hit impact low by looking to signing him for brief bridge contracts before he hits unrestricted free agency. The risk (and potential outcome) is that Kyle Connor keeps improving and thus when he's going into Summer 2022 at age 26 with one more season and then he's a UFA, you're not only just "buying" his UFA years, but that the value has increased tenfold because of the past couple of seasons of (likely) success.

TL;DR - To manage the cap now, one (or two) RFA players may have to be signed 'cheaply' to one or two year deals, which will hurt the Jets in the future when attempting to sign them long term in their UFA years - unless they only marginally improve, in which then the Jets luck out because they're signing core players for long term deals at ~$4.5m+ instead of $6m+. Perhaps I didn't make that point clear at the start, but that is why I use the phrase "unfairly".

 

[Whileee]

Where have I ever said this is some sort of "plot"? There is no conspiracy here. The Jets undoubtedly will continue to maximize Kyle Connor's ability - right now, that ability is goal scoring. So, in that sense it is completely the correct move to pair Connor with Scheifele with Wheeler. I've argued this in the past in my article on optimizing lineups, where (if I may remind you) that was in response to the Jets when they stacked their top 6 leaving the bottom forward lines to be Matthias-Lowry-Armia and Dano-Copp-Tanev. Inserting Connor into the top line and Roslovic into the lineup, along with trading for Stastny later in the season, helped spread the offensive talent throughout the lineup, which I believe was a primary driver for the Jets' success this season.

I simply believe the Jets will intend to keep his cap hit impact low by looking to signing him for brief bridge contracts before he hits unrestricted free agency. The risk (and potential outcome) is that Kyle Connor keeps improving and thus when he's going into Summer 2022 at age 26 with one more season and then he's a UFA, you're not only just "buying" his UFA years, but that the value has increased tenfold because of the past couple of seasons of (likely) success.

TL;DR - To manage the cap now, one (or two) RFA players may have to be signed 'cheaply' to one or two year deals, which will hurt the Jets in the future when attempting to sign them long term in their UFA years - unless they only marginally improve, in which then the Jets luck out because they're signing core players for long term deals at ~$4.5m+ instead of $6m+. Perhaps I didn't make that point clear at the start, but that is why I use the phrase "unfairly".

How surprised were you that Lowry not only crushed competition in shot metrics and xGF%, but also was top 4 in 5v5 offense rates?

The Lowry line really changed the Jets' equations last season.

I think Roslovic is going to be a big play driver in the bottom 6 and add to the scoring punch.

That starts to make it more feasible to invest in Connor and move cheaper options into Perreault's role.

 

[WPGChief]

How surprised were you that Lowry not only crushed competition in shot metrics and xGF%, but also was top 4 in 5v5 offense rates?

The Lowry line really changed the Jets' equations last season.

I think Roslovic is going to be a big play driver in the bottom 6 and add to the scoring punch.

That starts to make it more feasible to invest in Connor and move cheaper options into Perreault's role.

Lowry line wasn't just good, it was gooooooooooood. Every time I see his stats I am continually surprised of just how good a season he had, even if it was for 42 games and didn't show as much in the playoffs because of his injury. It was almost Bergeron-esque, without the shots and primary point production (though he was on track to have a great season in that category as well) and significantly more defensive zone starts. A lot of people (including myself) were ready to slot him in as an elite 4th line centre after his first three seasons - I think that notion is worth revisiting.

I would consider it ideal to purchase two of Lowry's UFA years now and revisit his mid-career development when he turns 29. There is no doubt that Lowry plays way more heavy and physical than Bergeron, and that is typically notorious for shortened career lengths. But I do want his prime years, and according to Matt Cane's model, if you can actually get that for $2.5m - $3.5m for 3-4 years, sign me up.

Roslovic no doubt is continuing along his career trajectory towards a mid-6 centre with a tad more offensive flair. I don't see that production coming immediately in the next one or two years though, so handling his development now will be key. I think he belongs on the Jets, however.

I still think we are able to make use of Perreault's remaining contract and that there is a lot of noise surrounding him. Jets may be forced to move him however, but that's more because of the other contracts numbers (Kulikov and Little primarily come to mind).

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

On the 31 Thoughts podcast a couple weeks ago, they interviewed a player agent (don't recall who). One thing that stuck with me is that he said agents tend to negotiate a players' worth based his the value to the team he plays on, not necessarily to comparables around the league.

Maybe I'm being willfully optimistic here, but if thats the case, Laine is not necessarily in the same salary range as Panarin. Panarin is in a class by himself in Columbus, whereas Laine is one of four scoring wingers on the Jets.

I'm still hoping Laine comes in around $8.5-9M.

If there is any variability in the criteria agents use you can bet that they will always use whatever criteria casts their client in the best light.

I think 8.5-9 is optimistic. I was already thinking of about 9.5-10. Panarin at 9 would lead me to expect Laine at 12 except for the difference in FA status. I hope that would keep it below 11. Laine is only one of the contracts we have coming up.

 

[Adam da bomb]

If there is any variability in the criteria agents use you can bet that they will always use whatever criteria casts their client in the best light.

I think 8.5-9 is optimistic. I was already thinking of about 9.5-10. Panarin at 9 would lead me to expect Laine at 12 except for the difference in FA status. I hope that would keep it below 11. Laine is only one of the contracts we have coming up.

Not even Ovie is getting 10 mil and if we take our homer glasses off it's easy to see Ovie is a much better player and has achieved a lot more.

 

[WPGChief]

Not even Ovie is getting 10 mil and if we take our homer glasses off it's easy to see Ovie is a much better player and has achieved a lot more.

Ovechkin also signed for $120m total since his contract is 5 years longer than the maximum now, and when it was signed it was 16.82% of the cap. Today, it is still 11.92% of the cap (assuming the cap is $80,000,000). If Laine signs for the same percentage and for max number of years, that's $13.5m for a total of ~$108m.

Instead, say Laine signs for $9m for 8 years today. That's 11.25% of the cap, for a total of $72m. Then, in 8 years at age 29, he can sign another (let's say) 6 years at $12m per, assuming the cap goes up and adjusting for imaginary inflation, for a total of another $72m.

Two standard contracts after an entry-level equals a grand total of $144m, in which the latter half only comes after playing for 12 years in the NHL already. Ovechkin got $108m guaranteed after 3 years of playing in the NHL.

(If Ovechkin and the Caps got knocked out by Pittsburgh again, Laine and the Jets would've have made it further into the playoffs in two years than Ovechkin did in 13 years. Narratives can change quickly.)

 

[Adam da bomb]

Ovechkin also signed for $120m total since his contract is 5 years longer than the maximum now, and when it was signed it was 16.82% of the cap. Today, it is still 11.92% of the cap (assuming the cap is $80,000,000). If Laine signs for the same percentage and for max number of years, that's $13.5m for a total of ~$108m.

Instead, say Laine signs for $9m for 8 years today. That's 11.25% of the cap, for a total of $72m. Then, in 8 years at age 29, he can sign another (let's say) 6 years at $12m per, assuming the cap goes up and adjusting for imaginary inflation, for a total of another $72m.

Two standard contracts after an entry-level equals a grand total of $144m, in which the latter half only comes after playing for 12 years in the NHL already. Ovechkin got $108m guaranteed after 3 years of playing in the NHL.

(If Ovechkin and the Caps got knocked out by Pittsburgh again, Laine and the Jets would've have made it further into the playoffs in two years than Ovechkin did in 13 years. Narratives can change quickly.)

But Ovie led Washington was their MVP. Laine was not our MVP that honour belongs to Chef, Buff, or if the Jets made it to the finals Helly.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Not even Ovie is getting 10 mil and if we take our homer glasses off it's easy to see Ovie is a much better player and has achieved a lot more.

The topic is contracts to be signed this off-season and recent salary inflation. Ovie signed his contract over 10 years ago. You can't draw any parallels whatsoever between his contract and any contract signed in the last 6 years. Besides just the passage of time, Ovie's contract was signed under a very different set of rules.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Laine at 12 is a bit ridiculous however. After all, McDavid signed for 12.5mil. Connor McDavid has a rocket a league MVP and A rookie of the year award.

 

[WPGChief]

But Ovie led Washington was their MVP. Laine was not our MVP that honour belongs to Chef, Buff, or if the Jets made it to the finals Helly.

And maybe next year Laine will be the one carrying Scheifele, Buff, and Helly. As I said, narratives change. Point being is the following quote just below yours:

The topic is contracts to be signed this off-season and recent salary inflation. Ovie signed his contract over 10 years ago. You can't draw any parallels whatsoever between his contract and any contract signed in the last 6 years. Besides just the passage of time, Ovie's contract was signed under a very different set of rules.

Laine at 12 is a bit ridiculous however. After all, McDavid signed for 12.5mil. Connor McDavid has a rocket a league MVP and A rookie of the year award.

(McDavid didn't win the Calder because he missed half a season. Artemi Panarin received those honours that year in 2015-16. (Which is total bullshit in my opinion.))

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

As it stands this echoes my own sentiment. Only a trade will prevent this from being our opening day roster.

I think KB's point was that there won't be a trade. If there is no trade and if Kulikov is healthy then the only questions are what order the LD will be in. Morrow's good performance with Buff makes this one pretty likely but I don't see it written in stone yet.

We have had a lot of discussion about whether or not Myers should be traded. Whether he likely will be traded is another story. I lean toward he should be traded. If Trouba is signed long term all doubt is removed - from my mind. I tend to agree with KB though, that it isn't likely. I think Chevy keeps him, first as insurance until Trouba is signed and then as an 'own rental' after Trouba is signed.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Laine at 12 is a bit ridiculous however. After all, McDavid signed for 12.5mil. Connor McDavid has a rocket a league MVP and A rookie of the year award.

And my point is that Panarin at 9 is ridiculous. If the guys on XMNHL are right then salaries have jumped higher than I would have expected.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Laine will settle for around the 7.5 give or take mark...

Go Jets Go

Thanks. I was wondering what he would get. Now I know.

Seriously, what makes you think so? Where did you pull that number from? What conditions are you considering/ignoring? Who are you comparing him to - and why?

 

[Adam da bomb]

McDavid is a generational player. Laine is an elite player. There is no reason the two should be making similar money.

 

[Adam da bomb]

And maybe next year Laine will be the one carrying Scheifele, Buff, and Helly. As I said, narratives change. Point being is the following quote just below yours:



(McDavid didn't win the Calder because he missed half a season. Artemi Panarin received those honours that year in 2015-16. (Which is total bull**** in my opinion.))

That is a really expensive Maybe. If your goaltender, your #1 D and your #1 C are not strong there is no way that Jets make it that far. Goalies should really be making more money considering if your goalie is not amazing there is no way your team has a chance.

 

[Adam da bomb]

And my point is that Panarin at 9 is ridiculous. If the guys on XMNHL are right then salaries have jumped higher than I would have expected.

Panarin still has a Calder while Laine doesn't. In Panarin's case as you said its mostly UFA years also doesn't Panarin have more of a two-way game?

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

McDavid is a generational player. Laine is an elite player. There is no reason the two should be making similar money.

Tbh we can’t really tell what Laine is until we see how much he can fix or edit his flaws(primarily Acceleration/Explosiveness, Board Play and Endurance) and what he looks like with more minutes. Also I mean his Goalscoring skills and stats have been nothing short of Generational(again he can possible get better for reasons said above). I’m not gonna go as far to saying Laine is gonna be near as good as McDavid but it’s very possible he will be the 2nd best player of the Generation(like how Malkin/Ovechkin where to Crosby), what I’d do if I where Chevy is I’d give Laine the minutes he desires(19.30’ish mpg, give him Ovie Power Play treatment as well) next season and then see what kind of player we are working with(if he gets near 90pts~ than he should be considered to getting 10m+)