And if you could get him for less by playing him 16min and only one Power Play? As it's not like we are not getting enough goals to win right now.
Salary Cap: Armchair Jets GM
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StatisticsAddict99
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Firstly the largest reason we didn’t make it to the Cup final was because we could score enough, so yeah you take as much scoring as you can find regardless of the fact, we are trying to win during the regular season not play contract chess with one of our most valued players.
And one of the biggest reasons we are winning are due to him. His shot on the PowerPlay have pretty much drove our PowerPlay this season(you could argue all day about how Wheelers more important but in the end of the day Laines role on the Power Play is much harder to find and Ehlers or Connor could fill Wheelers spot pretty safely), you give Laine more minutes on the PowerPlay than it’s probable more Goals. Than you look at it 5v5 and he’s pretty decent but you can tell how much his lack of minutes has hurt his scoring(as did Littles presence for half the season, as his 5v5 scoring was significantly lower than Laine and Ehlers). All I’m saying is see what he’s worth before we pay for him, if he’s worth 10m than pay him that, if he’s not that don’t.
Arthur Fonzarelli
"aaaaay"
Goalies are unpredictable. GM's will always be careful dealing with the them in both term and salary.
Simply comparing Fleury vs. Winnipeg against Fleury vs. Washington sums this discussion up.
As it stand the top salaries for goalies 26 years of age or younger are Lehner & Mrazek. Each make $4 million. Matt Murray at 24 makes $3.75 million. All of them will remain RFA's when their contracts expire. Hellebuyck signing a similar bridge deal is a possibility.
I do believe that Connor has a very bright future ahead of him. His offseason work with Alpha Hockey Inc. certainly paid off & points to a player on the rise.
This should certainly be a long term contract and if so the main comparable would be Holtby who signed his $6.1 AAV when he was 25. His late birthday had 1 of his 5 years be an RFA year at $3.5, 2 at $7 and decreasing to $5 for his final 2 years. Holtby going into this contract had played an absurd amount of games, 73 to be precise and was earning $2 million.
Connor's just played a high number of games as well, the most by an NHL goalie this season. His May birthday will have 2 RFA years factored in. Currently earning $2.25, I'd suggest very similar numbers to be the Jets offer plus inflation. 2 RFA years at $3.5, 2 UFA years at $7 and a final year at $5. That's $26 million over 5 years or $5.2 AAV. We still need to inflate this.
Holtby's deal was signed 3 seasons ago when the cap was $71.4 million. It amounted to 9% of his teams salary. Assuming the cap is $80 million, applying that percentage to Hellebuyck amounts to a $7.2 million 5 year deal.
The fact that Hellebuck has an additional RFA year will bring this down substantially.
Applying the initial $26 million & inflating it relative to Holtby's deal would bring the total to $29.13 million or a cap hit of $5.8 AAV & place Connor as the 11th highest paid goaltender in the NHL at 25 years of age.
Most importantly getting a 5 year deal accomplished with RFA years factored in will certainly help Chevy manage future cap space.
I realize the Cane model has a 5 year deal for Hellebuyck being $6.7 million which would place him 5th in goalie salary and above Crawford. Despite my confidence that this season is the first of many fantastic seasons in net, I can't imagine a single season of stellar goaltending to place Bucky this high up the pay scale.
I think $5.8 AAV is a real possibility, I believe the reasoning is sound and am hoping Bucky's deal is the first RFA signing Chevy makes this off season.
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It's not a question of the gap in his numbers relative to the rest of the team, it's a question of his worth relative to the rest of the team.
Because we have a surplus of the same type of player, we have a little bit of leverage there - at least as much as you can hope for with a 19-year old superstar. Panarin is a good example of the opposite: he had almost double the points of the next highest scoring forward on the team. Columbus needs him and his agent can leverage that.
He's unquestionably better than Connor and Ehlers and will be paid accordingly, but my point is that (hopefully) means $8.5M, not $10M.
(All bets are off if he doesn't sign this summer and scores 50G next year
)
sipowicz
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Jets goaltending is still the biggest issue, sure Helly looks like a solid number one but he was severely overplayed last season, Jets need to determine what they have in Mason soon and either stick with him or cut bait! If it was me I'd be looking for a more than adequate backup for Helly!
Despite what many might think our bottom 6 still needs to be upgraded, as we saw in the playoff's and in the regular season no one there is a threat to score (ever), hopefully the new Finn, Appleton or a few FA's can get in the mix. Sorry but guys like Copp, Tanev, Gramps, Armia(most of the time), Mathias, Dano don't cut it at the NHL level!
Despite what many might think our bottom 6 still needs to be upgraded, as we saw in the playoff's and in the regular season no one there is a threat to score (ever), hopefully the new Finn, Appleton or a few FA's can get in the mix. Sorry but guys like Copp, Tanev, Gramps, Armia(most of the time), Mathias, Dano don't cut it at the NHL level!
WPGChief
Registered User
Released an hour ago, though I probably should have proof read it a little more for those grammatical errors. Although when this post comes along...
Damn is that one hell of a step-by-step "how and why" as to Hellebuyck getting a 5x$5.8m. In my fourth post I also look at Holtby's contract as to how the Jets might get Hellebuyck's down from a predicted $6.25m to $6m, but I was all in honesty playing with mental math. Having the extra RFA year certainly does play a factor, though I more thought of the lack of an actual NHL goaltender routine over the past three years might be used as an argument (i.e., year 1: started strong when Pavelec was hurt and got ridden into the ground; year 2: rotated game-by-game with Hutchinson until he sorta took control, but not really because Hutchinson turned out to be worse anyway so again got ridden hard; year 3: forced into starting right away and was relied upon after a lacklustre season before - and put up Vezina numbers). From a glance, that looks pretty inconsistent.
Also, just how much of this is Hellebuyck versus the team playing better defensively?:
He did see significantly less shots from in front of his net... so maybe I'll look at the (the somewhat arbitrarily binned metric) numbers here:
Hmm... Hellebuyck faced about two less shots on net per game, but rates stayed roughly the same with increased amount of time and games at 5v5... perhaps...
Ahh, a bit more sense. 10 less goals against on the penalty kill. That's good in itself already for a couple of extra wins here and there. Was that a product of Hellebuyck or an improved penalty kill? I'm leaning a little more towards column A, to be honest. "Shots from the outside" may have a bit of a point though, but maybe that's better rebound control in front of the net too by the defence?
Maybe. I don't really have an answer here. Sometimes, a goalie is as good as their team. Sometimes a team is as good as their goalie. It can even change game to game. That's a whole lot of nothing, but it's certainly a lot of the evaluating that will go on when determining what dollar figure the Jets get to and whether or not Hellebuyck and his agent agrees with that.
I get what your saying here. Once you're past 1st round of playoffs you pretty much need 2nd line calibre players in every position.
Jets depth is very good league wide. But when you are in the Final 8, everyone has very good depth.. well above average becomes passable. Hell, even Ehlers couldn't pot a G all playoffs lol
Lowry's line pulled their weight almost all playoffs, they're good for me. Little Perreault I expected to dominate used as 4th liners. But I dont think that was the case at all. We are going to need to find A LOT cheaper 4th liners or die trying with them trying to play top six.
Myers made mistakes but not as many as Trouba in playoffs I dont think. Myers is not near as good defensively as Trouba but he legitimately was a difference maker some games. That's why I'd rather get rid of Perreault and Little before him.
Not to mention we have guys like Petan and Vesalainen who could step in and maybe grow to be difference makers.
Also good point about a goalie I forgot to mention that. Chevy should be ready to pony up a bit to get a 3rd goalie other that Hutch. Ideally better than Mason or Hutch...
sipowicz
The thrill is gone
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^ Good point about getting into the final 8, yeah guys like Copp, Tanev, Lowry, Armia, Little , Perreault are good in the regular season but we're outclassed against other playoff level teams forwards!
But, but, but Sip we beat Minny and Nashville.....and Helly stood on his head and was the difference! he fact that the bottom six couldnt buy a goal caught up with us against the Knights! (well that and Helly playing like 16-17 Helly)
But, but, but Sip we beat Minny and Nashville.....and Helly stood on his head and was the difference! he fact that the bottom six couldnt buy a goal caught up with us against the Knights! (well that and Helly playing like 16-17 Helly)
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Arthur Fonzarelli
"aaaaay"
Murat had an article in the Athletic that addressed the topic of Hellebuyck on the PK dated March 20th.
Analytics vs. the eye test: A comprehensive look at the Jets...
Since he quoted Corsica & Natural Stat Trick in his article, I believe it's fine to post the pure stats he presented.
He went through 11 NHL seasons & pulled data in the following areas & then compared each team from 11 years to the Jets 2017-2018 4x5 penalty kill. It was an eye opener.
Shot attempts against: 331/331
Unblocked shot attempts against: 331/331
Shots against: 329/331
High danger scoring chances against: 243/331
Expected goals against: 330/331
So while it's true the Jets were keeping shots to the perimeter, Hellebuyck was getting shelled on the PK facing a historic number of shots on goal. The Jets were literally at the bottom of every category. No goaltender has squared up to more shot attempts in the history of the salary cap era on the PK.
That in itself speaks volumes as to Hellebuyck's season and should certainly have him deserving a Holtby level contract, only Bucky's should be pro-rated for 2 RFA years as opposed to Holtby's 1 RFA year.
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Released an hour ago, though I probably should have proof read it a little more for those grammatical errors. Although when this post comes along...
Damn is that one hell of a step-by-step "how and why" as to Hellebuyck getting a 5x$5.8m. In my fourth post I also look at Holtby's contract as to how the Jets might get Hellebuyck's down from a predicted $6.25m to $6m, but I was all in honesty playing with mental math. Having the extra RFA year certainly does play a factor, though I more thought of the lack of an actual NHL goaltender routine over the past three years might be used as an argument (i.e., year 1: started strong when Pavelec was hurt and got ridden into the ground; year 2: rotated game-by-game with Hutchinson until he sorta took control, but not really because Hutchinson turned out to be worse anyway so again got ridden hard; year 3: forced into starting right away and was relied upon after a lacklustre season before - and put up Vezina numbers). From a glance, that looks pretty inconsistent.
Also, just how much of this is Hellebuyck versus the team playing better defensively?:
He did see significantly less shots from in front of his net... so maybe I'll look at the (the somewhat arbitrarily binned metric) numbers here:
Hmm... Hellebuyck faced about two less shots on net per game, but rates stayed roughly the same with increased amount of time and games at 5v5... perhaps...
Ahh, a bit more sense. 10 less goals against on the penalty kill. That's good in itself already for a couple of extra wins here and there. Was that a product of Hellebuyck or an improved penalty kill? I'm leaning a little more towards column A, to be honest. "Shots from the outside" may have a bit of a point though, but maybe that's better rebound control in front of the net too by the defence?
Maybe. I don't really have an answer here. Sometimes, a goalie is as good as their team. Sometimes a team is as good as their goalie. It can even change game to game. That's a whole lot of nothing, but it's certainly a lot of the evaluating that will go on when determining what dollar figure the Jets get to and whether or not Hellebuyck and his agent agrees with that.
Another nice article. If its where up to me I would lock Morrissey up long term as he will overperform a long term contract quite easily imo. Good point with regards to whether he will accept one or not or opt for a bridge.
I think your low on Trouba, he really shouldn't be compared to players coming off his ELC for his next deal. I have compiled a list of all dmen in the recent past that signed after a two year bridge and they got roughly 7.5 to 8% of the cap. That puts his market value around 6.25 to 6.4 million AAV with an 80 million cap.
WPGChief
Registered User
Definitely while I lean a little more to column A. Though I do have to give some credit to Paul Maurice; if he implemented this sort of penalty kill say 10 years ago, not only would there be an absolute shellacking on Hellebuyck, but there would be more of the "Lowry powerplay" we've seen in the past in which rebound goals would have demolished Hellebuyck and the Jets, in my opinion. In this phase of power play hockey where the goal is to make the goalie move horizontally across the net, Hellebuyck and the Jets excel because his big body can stop and swallow any "bomb" from the point and the Jets whole game plan is to limit these royal road passes and clear rebounds. If they were better at clearing rebounds out of the zone they likely wouldn't be this historically low. But from personal recollection, your Tanev, Hendricks, and even Armia at points colossally sucked. And then the Jets would simply let them back into the zone without much pressure so they can get back to their positions to limit the passes across the net.
That being said, if the next phase of power play hockey is moving to behind-the-net, then the Jets PK is going to get absolutely crushed. Imagine Hellebuyck not being able to see where the puck is going behind him and making him take the extra effort to look while the Jets players stick to their "limiting the seam passes" roles and don't forecheck players along the boards behind the goalie's redline. That's a collapse and a half just waiting to happen (in my opinion).
Of course, that's then and this is now. Hellebuyck put up one of the most dominant seasons as a goalie and didn't even look like he was breaking a sweat doing it. While I hope to get below $6m, that might be difficult. If you bite the bullet and do 7 (or 6) years at $6.5m instead of 6 years at $6.25m, I'm intrigued. 5 years at $5.8m is feasible and makes sense - my personal opinion is just that he and his agent might have that hard limit on $6m for any negotiations.
WPGChief
Registered User
If Morrissey signs a contract in which his value is outperforming the money in year 2 or 3 of 6-8, he needs to fire his agent.
While I do agree with not comparing Trouba to those coming off ELC's, there's one thing about all the contracts I was looking at: if they aren't signing those short bridge deals to get themselves to their final year or two of RFA, they are signing long enough to hit the ages of 27-30 for one last big, loaded contract. It's why I think Trouba and camp will be okay getting a contract under $6m, as long as it's something like 5 or 6 years to get him to age 29/30. But they'll still fight tooth and nail for that $6m though. But if it goes longer than those 5 or 6 years, buying more UFA time and the risk that he may decline at the end means you're shoring up closer to $6.5.
I do find it interesting that Cane's model seems to have a hard limit at $6m for Trouba's varied length of contracts. I still think he'll get over that $6m.
Good points on the term length. I can't remember what the average term length was for those coming off a two year bridge.
I personally think most long term deals coming off an ELC get outperformed to varying degrees just due to the uncertainty of where the player will end up. We saw that with Scheifele, who ascended to an franchise level after the deal. Same with Mckinnon who likely got a relatively low deal due to a couple of down years after a good rookie year. I would pay Morrissey similarly to what his peer group made coming off an of their ELC. Roughly 5 to 5.25. I would expect him to break out offensively and be a stud two way 40 to 45 point dmen. That is tremendous value for those contributions. But the same could be said for other young dmen like Jones who is only making around 5.5 million per.
Edit:
I also had thoughts throughout the year that the Jets where deliberately trying to pump up Myers value. However Maurice's continued unprompted promotion of Myers leadership etc.... has me doubting that the team will move him. Imo the certainly should strike while his value is likely about as high as its been since after his rookie year.
I don’t think it’s the 4th line guys that let us down,if Lowry was healthy that changes the whole line.It was Ehlers,Little,Perreault and Roslovic that we needed more out of.
WPGChief
Registered User
I definitely know a few teams that are in dire need of a "leadership" factor right now.
But once again, there's no real conspiracy or plot out there. If you're trying to compete for the Stanley Cup, you absolutely have to pump up your players every single day so they can come out and perform.That being said, I completely agree. Myers value is at it's absolute highest right now during the draft time. If Jets don't trade him now, I don't think his value is the same at or just before the beginning of the season.
My third article is out now, and for the most part it's just a "where are things at with our prospects" sort of article. There's going to be a lot of turnover, I think. If the Jets want to ensure the Moose are competitive again this year, it might take some serious AHL cash. I think there are one or two players from the Moose that can make the jump to the NHL this year and be impactful; likewise, two or so other players that can get ice time on the Moose for their next step of development. This is a lengthy asset management article here.
cbcwpg
Registered User
Jets hoping to keep Stastny when free agency opens
Before any team can solidify its plans involving restricted and unrestricted free agents, it must know what the NHL salary cap will be for next season. Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff said he expects that information to be released in the next week, prior to the 2018 NHL Draft in Dallas on June 22-23.
Before any team can solidify its plans involving restricted and unrestricted free agents, it must know what the NHL salary cap will be for next season. Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff said he expects that information to be released in the next week, prior to the 2018 NHL Draft in Dallas on June 22-23.
WPGChief
Registered User
Final article is out. Here's how I think the Jets manage to be under $80m this year and even leave room for another potential free agent. However, I like where they're at and who they can bring in on ELCs for 2018-19. I kinda agree with Murat that this drops after the next season or two, which is why I fully advocate for trading Myers at his absolute highest value.
TL;DR:
Feel free to criticize my dumb random number generators - I mean slightly adjust numbers from Matt Cane's model. I'll admit I've budged on a few since I've created, such as Hellebuyck's $6.2m, Trouba's $6m, and Lowry's length, but this is what I consider will help put the Jets in a good position next offseason for bigger fish to fry (Wheeler, Laine (if it comes to that)).
TL;DR:
Feel free to criticize my dumb random number generators - I mean slightly adjust numbers from Matt Cane's model. I'll admit I've budged on a few since I've created, such as Hellebuyck's $6.2m, Trouba's $6m, and Lowry's length, but this is what I consider will help put the Jets in a good position next offseason for bigger fish to fry (Wheeler, Laine (if it comes to that)).
Georgetown Al
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Nice analysis. Likely close to the mark, in my opinion. My main quibble is that I think they might lock up Morrissey long term for around 5.4m. That will turn into a good value deal in a few years, as the Jets try to sustain long term success.Final article is out. Here's how I think the Jets manage to be under $80m this year and even leave room for another potential free agent. However, I like where they're at and who they can bring in on ELCs for 2018-19. I kinda agree with Murat that this drops after the next season or two, which is why I fully advocate for trading Myers at his absolute highest value.
TL;DR:
Feel free to criticize my dumb random number generators - I mean slightly adjust numbers from Matt Cane's model. I'll admit I've budged on a few since I've created, such as Hellebuyck's $6.2m, Trouba's $6m, and Lowry's length, but this is what I consider will help put the Jets in a good position next offseason for bigger fish to fry (Wheeler, Laine (if it comes to that)).
DEANYOUNGBLOOD17
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Fredrick Anderson signed a 5 yrsr 5 million contract with Toronto 2 years ago after being ttaded from Anahiem.
Hellybuck 5 yrs 5.25 mill.
Morrissey 6-7 years at 5.25 mill using Carolina s Peece and Slavin as the most recent comparables.
Trouba 4-5 year 6.1 mill contact (higher than Morrissey due to less R.F.A. years on contract) not exceeding Schiefs $$$
Lowery 4 years @ 2.75 mill
Armia 3-4 years at 2.2 mill
Hellybuck 5 yrs 5.25 mill.
Morrissey 6-7 years at 5.25 mill using Carolina s Peece and Slavin as the most recent comparables.
Trouba 4-5 year 6.1 mill contact (higher than Morrissey due to less R.F.A. years on contract) not exceeding Schiefs $$$
Lowery 4 years @ 2.75 mill
Armia 3-4 years at 2.2 mill
I think this is a pretty good guess. I'd argue a bit higher for Lowry and a bit lower for Armia. I'd take those deals for Helly, Morrissey and Trouba.
WPGChief
Registered User
Thank you. As much as I would like Morrissey to sign long term, I think he will want to bet on himself. He is on track to get power play ice time eventually, and that will mark increased production along with increase in pay. Long term success will be sustained by the support of talented players on ELCs for the core signings of Laine, Scheifele, Trouba, Morrissey, and Hellebuyck. We're running out of those ELCs fast.
Those are all significantly too cheap in terms of comparables when you take a bit of inflation into account and yes, the dreaded "Winnipeg tax."
I don't know Cheif I haven't seen any evidence of this Winnipeg tax on contracts. Especially on the cobtracts to players already a part of the org and our home grown pieces.
Running out of ELCs... Agree. That's why I think the Jets should trade Myers and Perreault in the next 12 months for 2019 picks / prospects to replenish. Buff becomes an important expiring contract.
Little's contract might hurt in a few years.
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