Speculation: Armchair GM Thread: I can't believe it's not butter, I can't believe we didn't get Ryan Hartman.

[Lunatik]

Brayden Schenn, Ryan Johansen.

Schenn had 26 points in 47 games in his second season, which was the same age Bennett is now.
Ryan Johansen had 63 points in 82 games in his 3rd season, which is the same age Bennett is now.

So Bennett is clearly at least a year behind them if he does break out.

His path looks more like that of Magnus Paajarvi, Zack Kassian, Brett Connolly, Alex Burmistrov, Ryan Strome and Mikhail Grigorenko than either Schenn or Johansen.

 

[Lunatik]

I'm going to play armchair GM. I'm sure very few will like it

2018 Offseason

Coaching Changes:
- Relieve Gulutzan, Jerrard and Cameron of their duties.
- Hire 1 of Quenneville, Trotz, Tippett or Vigneault (in that order).
- Allow new coach to decide future of Gelinas, Pringle and Sigalet.
- Promote Huska to assistant coach, in charge of the defense and penalty kill.

RFA/UFA Re-Signings:
- Nick Shore: 1 year/$975,000 AAV
- Mark Jankowski: 2 years/$1,250,000 AAV
- Garnet Hathaway: 1 year/$650,000 AAV
- Marek Hrivik: 1 year/$650,000 AAV
- Brett Kulak: 1 year/$1,000,000 AAV
- David Rittich: 2 years/$750,000 AAV (1-way)
- Jon Gillies: 2 years/$750,000 AAV (1-way in 2nd year)
- Morgan Klimchuk: 1 year/$650,000 AAV ($180,000 AHL salary)
- Matt Stajan: 1 year/$850,000 AAV

Draft Weekend Trades:
- TJ Brodie to the Chicago Blackhawks for Brandon Saad
- Michael Stone to the Toronto Maple Leafs for a 3rd in 2018 (SJS)

July 1st (and later):
- Sign Calvin De Haan: 3 years/$4,000,000 AAV
- Trade Sam Bennett & Micheal Ferland to the Philadelphia Flyers for Wayne Simmonds-
- Re-Sign Wayne Simmonds: 6 year/$6,000,000
- Sign Justin Falk: 1 year/$650,000 AAV

Lineup:
Johnny Gaudreau ($6,750,000) - Sean Monahan ($6,375,000) - Wayne Simmonds ($3,975,000)
Matthew Tkachuk ($925,000) - Mikael Backlund ($5,350,000) - Brandon Saad ($6,000,000)
Michael Frolik ($4,300,000) - Mark Jankowski ($1,250,000) - Troy Brouwer ($4,500,000)
Matt Stajan ($850,000) - Nick Shore ($975,000) - Curtis Lazar ($950,000)
x: Garnet Hathaway ($650,000), Marek Hrivik ($650,000)

Mark Giordano ($6,750,000) - Dougie Hamilton (5,750,000)
Calvin De Haan ($4,000,000) - Travis Hamonic ($3,857,143)
Brett Kulak ($1,000,000) - Rasmus Andersson ($755,833)
Justin Falk ($650,000)

Mike Smith ($4,250,000) - David Rittich/Jon Gillies ($750,000)

2019 Offseason

Buyouts:
- Troy Brouwer 2 years/$1,500,000 Buyout Cap Penalty

RFA Re-Signings:
- Matthew Tkachuk: 7 years/$6,250,000 AAV

 

[Turning Mangiapanese]

Also is there any comparable for Bennett of a player that took 3+ seasons before producing over 0.5 points per game actuly turning into something useful. I'm genuinely interested because as much as him turning out would be great it seems super unlikely. Karlsson kind of fits but he's shooting 20% and had only played 2 seasons and some change prior to breaking out.

Sean Couturier and Teuvo Teravainen are two guys that seem to have really taken off this season. The Sedins also turned out alright after some 40 point seasons.

 

[lightstorm]

Just read that Michael "better than Bennett" Ferland has 2 goals in his last 25 games.

"Ferly stands on his own two feet with 13 and 23, hes not a third wheel"

 

[Skobel24]

@FlamerForLife mentioned this in the GDT, but if Monahan isn't completely healthy, he should be benched for the remainder of the year. Give Bennett the chance to center the top line and see if he can step up. Maybe it'll spark some confidence again.

Recall Mangiapane, Foo, and Klimchuk. Send Hathaway and Stewart down. Bury Bartkowski and recall Wotherspoon.

Gaudreau - Bennett - Ferland
Mangiapane - Backlund - Frolik
Tkachuk - Jankowski - Lazar
Klimchuk - Shore - Foo

Giordano - Hamilton
Kulak - Hamonic
Wotherspoon - Andersson

 

[DFF]

Just read that Michael "better than Bennett" Ferland has 2 goals in his last 25 games.

"Ferly stands on his own two feet with 13 and 23, hes not a third wheel"

Lance Bouma II with an occasional breakout

 

[Ace Rimmer]

Just read that Michael "better than Bennett" Ferland has 2 goals in his last 25 games.

"Ferly stands on his own two feet with 13 and 23, hes not a third wheel"

Hate to make it sound like an excuse, but he's been fighting an injury for a bit.

As for Armchair GM, get Stajan his 1000th game and his stick ceremony, then start the parade of youth. I know Stockton is pushing for a playoff spot; send down some veterans to fill their spots.

 

[Dack]

Schenn had 26 points in 47 games in his second season, which was the same age Bennett is now.
Ryan Johansen had 63 points in 82 games in his 3rd season, which is the same age Bennett is now.

So Bennett is clearly at least a year behind them if he does break out.

His path looks more like that of Magnus Paajarvi, Zack Kassian, Brett Connolly, Alex Burmistrov, Ryan Strome and Mikhail Grigorenko than either Schenn or Johansen.

This is kind of what I'm saying I can't find a comparable for Bennett that has actually worked out. It sucks but that's the draft I guess.

 

[Dack]

Sean Couturier and Teuvo Teravainen are two guys that seem to have really taken off this season. The Sedins also turned out alright after some 40 point seasons.

These are some pretty good answers. Teuvo had 0.5ppg in his third season but Couturier didn't score at a higher level until his 4th or 5th season (then another jump this year). Although he was already highly renowned as a defensive player and was capable of carrying a bottom 6 line in his early years.

The Sedins have one of the strangest developmental paths of all time.

 

[Deen]

Considering it is likely we miss. How high or low would our draft pick have to be for you guys to consider the Hamonic trade to be worth it?

 

[Janks]

Schenn had 26 points in 47 games in his second season, which was the same age Bennett is now.
Ryan Johansen had 63 points in 82 games in his 3rd season, which is the same age Bennett is now.

So Bennett is clearly at least a year behind them if he does break out.

His path looks more like that of Magnus Paajarvi, Zack Kassian, Brett Connolly, Alex Burmistrov, Ryan Strome and Mikhail Grigorenko than either Schenn or Johansen.

Not going to agree or disagree about his path - but Bennett is 6th in scoring on the team for forwards while playing mostly top 9 minutes. I think a lot of his struggles are due to lack of consistency, but I think he's still putting things together and it doesn't help to play minimal minutes with less skilled players. RyJo and Schenn certainly had better linemates than Janks/Brouwer/Hathaway

 

[Dack]

I'm going to play armchair GM. I'm sure very few will like it

2018 Offseason

Coaching Changes:
- Relieve Gulutzan, Jerrard and Cameron of their duties.
- Hire 1 of Quenneville, Trotz, Tippett or Vigneault (in that order).
- Allow new coach to decide future of Gelinas, Pringle and Sigalet.
- Promote Huska to assistant coach, in charge of the defense and penalty kill.

RFA/UFA Re-Signings:
- Nick Shore: 1 year/$975,000 AAV
- Mark Jankowski: 2 years/$1,250,000 AAV
- Garnet Hathaway: 1 year/$650,000 AAV
- Marek Hrivik: 1 year/$650,000 AAV
- Brett Kulak: 1 year/$1,000,000 AAV
- David Rittich: 2 years/$750,000 AAV (1-way)
- Jon Gillies: 2 years/$750,000 AAV (1-way in 2nd year)
- Morgan Klimchuk: 1 year/$650,000 AAV ($180,000 AHL salary)
- Matt Stajan: 1 year/$850,000 AAV

Draft Weekend Trades:
- TJ Brodie to the Chicago Blackhawks for Brandon Saad
- Michael Stone to the Toronto Maple Leafs for a 3rd in 2018 (SJS)

July 1st (and later):
- Sign Calvin De Haan: 3 years/$4,000,000 AAV
- Trade Sam Bennett & Micheal Ferland to the Philadelphia Flyers for Wayne Simmonds-
- Re-Sign Wayne Simmonds: 6 year/$6,000,000
- Sign Justin Falk: 1 year/$650,000 AAV

Lineup:
Johnny Gaudreau ($6,750,000) - Sean Monahan ($6,375,000) - Wayne Simmonds ($3,975,000)
Matthew Tkachuk ($925,000) - Mikael Backlund ($5,350,000) - Brandon Saad ($6,000,000)
Michael Frolik ($4,300,000) - Mark Jankowski ($1,250,000) - Troy Brouwer ($4,500,000)
Matt Stajan ($850,000) - Nick Shore ($975,000) - Curtis Lazar ($950,000)
x: Garnet Hathaway ($650,000), Marek Hrivik ($650,000)

Mark Giordano ($6,750,000) - Dougie Hamilton (5,750,000)
Calvin De Haan ($4,000,000) - Travis Hamonic ($3,857,143)
Brett Kulak ($1,000,000) - Rasmus Andersson ($755,833)
Justin Falk ($650,000)

Mike Smith ($4,250,000) - David Rittich/Jon Gillies ($750,000)

2019 Offseason

Buyouts:
- Troy Brouwer 2 years/$1,500,000 Buyout Cap Penalty

RFA Re-Signings:
- Matthew Tkachuk: 7 years/$6,250,000 AAV

This is a much better team if you could actually pull off some of these moves. I think Simmonds has more value than that. But I like the team and I'd be super happy if we could have that team without giving up prospects.

 

[Deen]

We need to make a play for Kovalchuk. He can play right wing and is a right hand shot. Probably zero chance he would come here though as he has already stated he wants to be in the New York area. We said the same about Jagr though, so who knows.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Just read that Michael "better than Bennett" Ferland has 2 goals in his last 25 games.

"Ferly stands on his own two feet with 13 and 23, hes not a third wheel"

And he's got 5p in his last 7 games...

I think Bennett > Ferland but Ferland has been a huge part of the first line's success. There's a reason 13 and 23 saw huge production jumps since Ferland joined that line.

 

[The Gnome]

Brayden Schenn, Ryan Johansen.

Exactly, I'm saying it now as a warning for all us armchair GMs. If you give up on Bennett while his value is low, it'll come back to burn us. I don't think he'll ever be an elite 1C, that ship has sailed. But i do think he can easily be a top 6 winger/center capable of 50ish points who has all the intangibles to boot. Again, if you don't think that's possible, i present to you our own homegrown example of a late bloomer in Backlund. A guy who has turned into a top 6 shutdown center and is posting between 40-50 points this season. There are many, many examples of players who take time to develop, if BT doesn't have the patience for that, he better be damn sure he's getting top value back for a player of Bennett's pedigree.

Yes we need another sniper or two on this team. But that certainly isn't our biggest problem, GG and company take that dubious honor. Just think about how poorly he's managed our roster this season alone and try to justify how that isn't a major problem. Brouwer on special teams, No Hamilton on the PP, Brodie not playing on his off-side, not playing our top players enough, and a complete idiotic reluctance to change a system that is not working. He's a horrible coach, and needs to be shown the door while we still have a solid young core of quality players.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

@FlamerForLife mentioned this in the GDT, but if Monahan isn't completely healthy, he should be benched for the remainder of the year. Give Bennett the chance to center the top line and see if he can step up. Maybe it'll spark some confidence again.

Recall Mangiapane, Foo, and Klimchuk. Send Hathaway and Stewart down. Bury Bartkowski and recall Wotherspoon.

Gaudreau - Bennett - Ferland
Mangiapane - Backlund - Frolik
Tkachuk - Jankowski - Lazar
Klimchuk - Shore - Foo

Giordano - Hamilton
Kulak - Hamonic
Wotherspoon - Andersson

Gulutzan has been happy to throw the bottom 6 + 1RW into a blender, but his insistence on locking up 5 of the top 6 players into the same unit is just baffling. This team was never a bottom 6 tweak away from being a playoff team, let alone a legit contender. The team has lacked scoring depth all season because of GG's refusal to resource the 3rd line - you've had a rookie C with a career AHL'er at RW and 21 year old C on LW for most of the year. That line actually was dangerous when they played with Jagr . . .

But if you're going to stack and lock your top 6, then maybe don't roll 4 lines...

Gaudreau - Bennett - Ferland has looked like a legit 1st line whenever they've been assembled, I can't for the life of me understand why that's been ignored.

Gaudreau - Bennett - Ferland
Tkachuk - Monahan - Frolik
Jankowski - Backlund - Brouwer
Lazar - Stajan - Hathaway


Seriously what has to happen to separate Gaudreau and Monahan? Monahan is visibly more comfortable when he's on his own line anyways.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Monahan is visibly more comfortable when he's on his own line anyways.

That's literally news to everyone, including Monahan.

 

[Baxterman]

Considering it is likely we miss. How high or low would our draft pick have to be for you guys to consider the Hamonic trade to be worth it?

For me the draft pick has nothing to do with the deal being a hit or miss. Since it looks to be in the 12-4 range pre-lottery I think that with the 2 2nds are more than fair value for Hamonic.

The issue is two-fold for me but both are related.

A. Should we have made a move for another defenseman when we had Gio, Brodie, Hamilton and obviously a plan and idea that we could get Stone. Hamonic is worth the value paid but with where this team is at was it time to make that kind of deal?

B. Should we have used those assets (assuming something was out there) for a Top RHS/RW?

 

[Baxterman]

Gaudreau - Bennett - Ferland has looked like a legit 1st line whenever they've been assembled, I can't for the life of me understand why that's been ignored.

No it hasn't.

You can keep repeating this crap but it hasn't.

Ferland barely looks like a 1st line player when paired with the much better Monahan at center so unlikely he looks better with a weaker Bennett at center. Bennett has struggled as a 3rd line center and been ok as a 3rd line wing so moving him up to 1st line center is unlikely to make him better than a 30+ goal, 60+ point guy that we already have there.

People complain all the time about Monahan not being a good enough 1C replacing him with a clearly inferior option isn't going to make us a better team.

You asked what would it take to split up Monahan and Gaudurea?

Probably getting good enough players to play with them so that splitting them up doesn't mean making two weaker lines and diminishing their production.

 

[Baxterman]

We need to make a play for Kovalchuk. He can play right wing and is a right hand shot. Probably zero chance he would come here though as he has already stated he wants to be in the New York area. We said the same about Jagr though, so who knows.

Jagr came here because he was so bad that he had no other options.

I am not sure I want a broken down Kovalchuk that is too bad to play anywhere else, has about a 1000th of the work ethic of Jagr and isn't coming on a cheap one year deal like Jagr.

Jagr may have sucked but at least he was doing his best to contribute and help the team. Kovalchuk at his peak would always be a question mark about how good vs. harm he is doing and as a guy here only to get paid I shutter to think how much of a pain in the ass he would be.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

That's literally news to everyone, including Monahan.

I think he looks much more comfortable. He's more of a play driver and is able to play a bit slower, which is where he's at his best. He's more creative, he defers less and carries the puck more, and his composure is just much better. I just find him to be a much better player when he's leading the play as opposed to chasing it.

His production drops off a bit but he looks more like a 1C without Gaudreau IMO.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

I mean, I like the idea of Kovalchuk (he's not NJD property if anyone is wondering) but what's here to entice him?

The only thing that could be here, is a dump truck full of money. Think $7m x 7 years or something equally silly. For a couple of years of declining Kovalchuk? At a 35+ contract to boot?

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

No it hasn't.

You can keep repeating this crap but it hasn't.

Ferland barely looks like a 1st line player when paired with the much better Monahan at center so unlikely he looks better with a weaker Bennett at center. Bennett has struggled as a 3rd line center and been ok as a 3rd line wing so moving him up to 1st line center is unlikely to make him better than a 30+ goal, 60+ point guy that we already have there.

People complain all the time about Monahan not being a good enough 1C replacing him with a clearly inferior option isn't going to make us a better team.

You asked what would it take to split up Monahan and Gaudurea?

Probably getting good enough players to play with them so that splitting them up doesn't mean making two weaker lines and diminishing their production.

The argument is not that Bennett will make the first line better. The argument is that by splitting up Gaudreau and Monahan, you spread out the offense. Let Monahan and Tkachuk feast on 2nd pairing defenseman. Or vice versa.

Also - Gaudreau - Bennett - Ferland has absolutely looked like a first line when paired together. Yes, Bennett struggled when playing 3C while saddled with garbage linemates, but whenever he's had talent (i.e. Gaudreau) he's been very good. Gaudreau has shown that he can make pretty much any line a 1st line. Ferland's success has a lot more to do with Gaudreau than Monahan, and Ferland and Bennett have looked good together whenever they've been given the opportunity.

Gaudreau will get his 75+ points with Bennett and Ferland - that line would probably be good for 70+ goals

Monahan will get his 25+ goals with Tkachuk and Frolik / Versteeg / Lazar etc.

And then you've got Backlund driving the third line who should be good for another 40+ points.

That top 9 probably gives you scoring paces like:

Gaudreau 30g 85p
Tkachuk 25g 65p
Monahan 30g 60p
Bennett 20g 55p
Ferland 25g 45p
Backlund 20g 45p
Frolik 15g 40p
Jankowski 15g 35p
Brouwer 15g 30p

Significant improvement.

 

[Baxterman]

The argument is not that Bennett will make the first line better. The argument is that by splitting up Gaudreau and Monahan, you spread out the offense. Let Monahan and Tkachuk feast on 2nd pairing defenseman. Or vice versa.

Also - Gaudreau - Bennett - Ferland has absolutely looked like a first line when paired together. Yes, Bennett struggled when playing 3C while saddled with garbage linemates, but whenever he's had talent (i.e. Gaudreau) he's been very good. Gaudreau has shown that he can make pretty much any line a 1st line. Ferland's success has a lot more to do with Gaudreau than Monahan, and Ferland and Bennett have looked good together whenever they've been given the opportunity.

Gaudreau will get his 75+ points with Bennett and Ferland - that line would probably be good for 70+ goals

Monahan will get his 25+ goals with Tkachuk and Frolik / Versteeg / Lazar etc.

And then you've got Backlund driving the third line who should be good for another 40+ points.

That top 9 probably gives you scoring paces like:

Gaudreau 30g 85p
Tkachuk 25g 65p
Monahan 30g 60p
Bennett 20g 55p
Ferland 25g 45p
Backlund 20g 45p
Frolik 15g 40p
Jankowski 15g 35p
Brouwer 15g 30p

Significant improvement.

That is some very optismistic outlook for players. Ferland and Gaudreau are going to produce at basically the same pace with a much worse player on their line. what are the chances of that?

Bennett is going to beat his career best by 20 points despite showing zero signs that he is close to a 55 point player? Brouwer basically doubling his point totals? Jankowski jumping up 15 points, Frolik improving. Those are all unlikely to happen individually let alone every guy having a much, much better season.

I understand the argument for splitting up Monahan and Gaudreau to spread out the offense, but that only works if we have the players to do that and we don't.

Bennett and Ferland are weak 1st line players if paired with a peak Crosby, pairing them with Gaudreau just means we have a bad 1st line. Tkachuk and Monahan are good but then having them have to play with Frolik or Versteeg handcuffs them. With the top line already having two passengers I am not sure we want the 2nd line to have a dud as well. Brouwer in a shutdown role with Backlund leaves us with a big hole on that line that other teams can easily exploit.

 

[Master Bill]

Just read that Michael "better than Bennett" Ferland has 2 goals in his last 25 games.

"Ferly stands on his own two feet with 13 and 23, hes not a third wheel"

Ferland had a shocking game yesterday. Not only the idiotic backhand giveaway that led to their tying goal, but also numerous amateur plays in the boards. It's a mystery someone of his size and strength continues to give pucks away in the boards like candy.