The difference in Backlund's results this year is almost entirely due to shooting % and PP success.
The question is, is this season what he really is, or was last season?
Knowing the Flames, this is probably what we can expect going forward. 6% shooting at 5v5 and 11 pp points vs 9% shooting at 5v5 and 16 pp points.
That's a 10 point difference over a season.
Edit: good sign maybe, Backlund is rocking a 0.959 PDO this year which is incredibly low for a skilled forward
in fact, all of 3M is within the bottom 36 forwards in PDO this year. The style they play definitely contributes to their being unlucky but last season they were all around 0.99 so that suggests that improvement is probable