Speculation: All rebuild related talk (with Poll)

[Micklebot]

At this point we should just be happy if we can get rid of Smith's contract without giving up a pick.

He looks like he's going the way of Greening. He was signed to be a 20G scorer, but he's got 1G on the season and is killing scoring chances left and right with his lack of talent.

No chance he returns a 1st. I could maybe see a team with a lot of cap space throwing the Sens a 3rd-7th round pick at the deadline, but I wouldn't count on it.

if 3.25 is the going rate for 20 goal scorers, we should be signing tons of them. Smith was signed to be a middle 6 physical winger that can chip in with some offence. ~15 goals give or take is what reasonable people were expecting from him, and what his contract is fair value for. His sh% so far this year is absurdly low, not convinced it will stay that way. Oddly, his individual scoring chance and individual HDCF are the best they've been in his career. His on ice rates are better than the norm for him too. It's not all bad, though despite the numbers, I'd agree he is struggling, I just think he's going to snap out of it (has looked decent on Duchene's wing).

 

[Micklebot]

Whether Smith is scoring or not, he is the type of player Contenders trade for.

Reeves got a 1st
Gaustad got a 1st
Dominic Moore has been traded for a 2nd 3 separate times.
Boyle for a 2nd + prospect


Smith has a "bad" contracat worstt. 3.25 isn't bad for Smith, but the 4 years is bad.

I would think he would be pretty easy to trade, I as well wouldn't much care what we got back, but would assume he would get a 2nd at worst.

His contract is what is keeping him from returning a 1st for sure at the deadline.

I really don't like Smith, for the record.

To me the issue with smith is that we rely on him in the top 6, and have a dedicated shutdown line for a 3rd. He'd do well in a scenario where you have a scoring 3rd and a shutdown 4th (what I was hopping we'd run with this year). Smith should do spot duty in the top 6, not primary duty. 15 goals, 30-35 pts as a 3rd line LW that fills in on the 2nd from time to time and plays 2nd unit PP for 3.25 is a great deal if he can provide that, but it won't happen here.

 

[Tundraman]

Agreed. It's like Steve Loyd said on the radio. Waive oduya, Dumont and burrows. Play white, chabot, claesson and whatever other younger guy and just ride out the year.

If LLoyd said they should waive Oduya and Burrows then he's mistaken. Oduya and Burrows have a NMC so can't be placed on waivers. They can be traded to any team that are not on their NM list but in the case of Burrows who wants an overpaid guy who let's say is "under performing" although it's more likely what you see is what you get and has 1 more year left at $2.5M.

What really bugged me about Burrows was right after he was acquired and re-signed an excited local interviewer said they were glad to get an agitator (aka a shit disturber) and Burrows said he didn't do that anymore. For the most part he's been true to his word and mostly invisible in that department. I already gave him credit for scoring 2 goals and another in close games the Sens won after he came here last year but that's about it. My concern is that Dorion might find some more overrated gems like him and make them part of his rebuild. I have serious concerns that Dorion wouldn't be tempted to trade youth for more castoffs and Boucher would play them over the youth when they make the inevitable mistakes.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Where is this coming from? Neither Burrows or Oduya have NMCs. Am I missing something? They have modified NTCs.

Oduya might not be easy to trade because his contract is structured with bonus incentives and cap teams won't want to be stuck with overages next year as a result of Oduya hitting said bonuses. Right now, he is likely to hit 750k in bonuses (top 5 in TOI, 41GP, 65GP), if he is traded to a contender, he'd most likely hit 1M in bonuses.

If this season is done, the best thing for the Senators to do is bench Oduya so they don't have to pay him 750k in bonuses, but that might be a bad look to other free agents for the team to go from playing Oduya in the top 4 to benching him overnight in order to screw him out of nearly a million dollars.

It'd be nice to get a pick back for Burrows, but I doubt it happens. The second year on his contract might make him hard to move. If he was an upcoming UFA, I think someone would drink the kool-aid at the deadline and give us a pick for him.

 

[aragorn]

That's a good question. But I would think they would have to rebuild with a brand new GM & coach otherwise we have the same old, same old. Even with this owner I doubt we would get the team we want, he is always sticking his nose in there.

I already dislike half of the players on the team & would like to replace a good number of them but have zero confidence they would replace them with the kind of players I like, so what would be the point? I do like the way Winnipeg is built though. Can we do that?

Go Jets Go.

 

[Tundraman]

Where is this coming from? Neither Burrows or Oduya have NMCs. Am I missing something? They have modified NTCs.

Oduya might not be easy to trade because his contract is structured with bonus incentives and cap teams won't want to be stuck with overages next year as a result of Oduya hitting said bonuses. Right now, he is likely to hit 750k in bonuses (top 5 in TOI, 41GP, 65GP), if he is traded to a contender, he'd most likely hit 1M in bonuses.

If this season is done, the best thing for the Senators to do is bench Oduya so they don't have to pay him 750k in bonuses, but that might be a bad look to other free agents for the team to go from playing Oduya in the top 4 to benching him overnight in order to screw him out of nearly a million dollars.

It'd be nice to get a pick back for Burrows, but I doubt it happens. The second year on his contract might make him hard to move. If he was an upcoming UFA, I think someone would drink the kool-aid at the deadline and give us a pick for him.

Neither player can be sent to the AHL which is the purpose of waivers so it's a NMC with a 10 team no trade. There is no "make them disappear" magic wand here.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Neither player can be sent to the AHL which is the purpose of waivers so it's a NMC with a 10 team no trade. There is no "make them disappear" magic wand here.

Where are you seeing that? All I am seeing on Capfriendly is that they have modified no trade clauses.

Unless Capfriendly is wrong, which I'd be incredibly surprised by, neither has a NMC. A NTC is not a NMC.

 

[Tkachuckycheese]

Should the Sens sign Duchene to a long term deal? Build around his speed and playing style?

 

[bert]

If this team can get stability in Ownership the trickle down will be tremendous. Also this team cant rebuild right now too many picks have been traded and this teams core star players are still pretty good and on the right side of 28.

Anyone that wants to trade Karlsson right now can please just not post reply's or quotes from my posts because I wont be responding.

Trading players when they are injured is about as stupid as it gets.

I dont want to see Pierre Dorion involved in a single trade ever again. So a retool with a new front office is about the only option I like, until then they should be standing pat right now and bottom out.

 

[topshelf15]

Where are you seeing that? All I am seeing on Capfriendly is that they have modified no trade clauses.

Unless Capfriendly is wrong, which I'd be incredibly surprised by, neither has a NMC. A NTC is not a NMC.

Meh even if they dont want to be waived, iam sure they would like the chance to play.Which is something we can control,a month sitting in the pressbox .And that NMC would lose all of it pwer

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Meh even if they dont want to be waived, iam sure they would like the chance to play.Which is something we can control,a month sitting in the pressbox .And that NMC would lose all of it pwer

Neither of them have NMCs, that is my point. I think it's possible the other poster is misinformed.

There's a difference between have a NMC with a M-NTC, and simply having a M-NTC. Both Oduya and Burrows have M-NTCs, so they both could be placed on waivers for the purpose of being assigned to the AHL.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Should the Sens sign Duchene to a long term deal? Build around his speed and playing style?

Assuming he's willing to stay and asking for a reasonable contract, IE something similar to what Turris got, I don't see why we wouldn't re-sign him. I wouldn't say we could "build around" him, he's not that kind of player, but he's easily our 2nd best forward behind Stone.

I would expect 6.5Mx6 years with a 10 team no trade list. Duchene makes 6.5M in real money next season, and I don't think he'll take a pay cut on a new contract. Turris coming in at 6x6 with no trade protection in Nashville along with Duchene's lack of production the last two years puts the Senators in a good position to not have to overpay to get him to re-sign.

If Duchene was actually producing, he could probably ask for 7x7 or more. But he's not. I don't think he's a 40 point player, far from it. COL was historically bad last season, he was buried in COL's lineup earlier this year prior to the trade, and nobody is producing in Ottawa right now. So that is one of the few upsides to this slump. If Duchene wants to stay, he won't have nearly the negotiating power that he would have had if he came into Ottawa super hot.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

To me the issue with smith is that we rely on him in the top 6, and have a dedicated shutdown line for a 3rd. He'd do well in a scenario where you have a scoring 3rd and a shutdown 4th (what I was hopping we'd run with this year). Smith should do spot duty in the top 6, not primary duty. 15 goals, 30-35 pts as a 3rd line LW that fills in on the 2nd from time to time and plays 2nd unit PP for 3.25 is a great deal if he can provide that, but it won't happen here.

I agree that Smith is deployed wrong here..that is not an issue with Smith.. it is an issue with top 6 depth .. which seemingly has been an issue for a few years. I would have no problem with the Sens moving him... if the return is good , if not I would keep him

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Neither of them have NMCs, that is my point. I think it's possible the other poster is misinformed.

There's a difference between have a NMC with a M-NTC, and simply having a M-NTC. Both Oduya and Burrows have M-NTCs, so they both could be placed on waivers for the purpose of being assigned to the AHL.

Great lets get 'er done

 

[WadeRedden]

Why would Duchene want to stay? By his own admission, he left Colorado because he didn't want to spend the prime of his career as part of a rebuild. Ottawa looks like they could be a disaster for the next two/three years at worst and a wildcard bubble team at best. Personally, I want to see him stay because he's such an exciting talent but if I put myself in his shoes I'd be testing free-agency in 2019.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Why would Duchene want to stay? By his own admission, he left Colorado because he didn't want to spend the prime of his career as part of a rebuild. Ottawa looks like they could be a disaster for the next two/three years at worst and a wildcard bubble team at best. Personally, I want to see him stay because he's such an exciting talent but if I put myself in his shoes I'd be testing free-agency in 2019.

He may not want to stay. I guess we just have to wait and see.

But people have also said he likes playing close to home, and there's no signs that it's a full rebuild here. If anything, we've just had a terrible slump that ruined our season, and because this season is now most likely done for us we're in a position to make re-tool type moves that otherwise would have had to wait for the off season.

Just like nobody thinks 1 goal away from the cup final is a fair representation of how good this team should have been this season, I don't think anybody thinks 9 losses in 10 games or whatever it has been is also a fair representation of where this team is at.

If he sees us extend Karlsson, make a few re-tool trades, and fall back on the idea that we've been a consistent enough playoff team (playoffs every 2nd season), maybe he opts to stay.

 

[DaveMatthew]

This team can't really can't rebuild. We have to make moves to try and be competitive next year.

Our 1st round pick is top 10 protected this year, but we have a pretty damn good chance at being a bottom 10 team.

If we rebound slightly and play .400 the rest of the year, we'll finish with ~76 points. Last year, that would have put us 26th.

If we turn it around a bit more and play .500 the rest of the year, we'll finish with ~79 points. Last year, that would have put us 25th in the league.

If we all of a sudden turn it around completely and play .550 the rest of the year, we'll finish with ~87 points. Last year, that would have put us 21st in the league.

So one way or another, it looks like we'll be picking in the 1st round this year. The problem with that? It means we give our 2019 1st rounder to Colorado, and that one's not to 10 protected.

And if we gut the team and trade Karlsson, Hoffman, Brassard, etc, we'll probably be even worse in 18/19, but have no chance at drafting the next big thing - Jack Hughes. Great. Thanks Dorion.

 

[aragorn]

I agree that Smith is deployed wrong here..that is not an issue with Smith.. it is an issue with top 6 depth .. which seemingly has been an issue for a few years. I would have no problem with the Sens moving him... if the return is good , if not I would keep him

If they are going to play Smith in the top six then he should play with Stone who can get him the puck in scoring areas. Stone makes everybody he plays with better & Smith was great with him when they played together last yr & Brassard could centre them. Smith with Brassard would improve their faceoff percentage. The problem is with Ryan, Hoffman & Duchene who are three very good individual players who can't seem to gel with anyone including each other. Then there is the bottom of the order which just plain sucks for the most part, I would get rid of most of them except for the fact they are mostly Boucher's boys.

 

[albator71]

This team can't really can't rebuild. We have to make moves to try and be competitive next year.

Our 1st round pick is top 10 protected this year, but we have a pretty damn good chance at being a bottom 10 team.

If we rebound slightly and play .400 the rest of the year, we'll finish with ~76 points. Last year, that would have put us 26th.

If we turn it around a bit more and play .500 the rest of the year, we'll finish with ~79 points. Last year, that would have put us 25th in the league.

If we all of a sudden turn it around completely and play .550 the rest of the year, we'll finish with ~87 points. Last year, that would have put us 21st in the league.

So one way or another, it looks like we'll be picking in the 1st round this year. The problem with that? It means we give our 2019 1st rounder to Colorado, and that one's not to 10 protected.

And if we gut the team and trade Karlsson, Hoffman, Brassard, etc, we'll probably be even worse in 18/19, but have no chance at drafting the next big thing - Jack Hughes. Great. Thanks Dorion.

but if we trade many of our players, i would assume we would get plenty of 1st round picks in 2019 draft.

 

[Benttheknee]

Decide as we approach the trade deadline. Assuming the Sens are still bleh I would trade everybody except for players under 22 or so.

The Sens had a chance to build something, but the Ryan signing was the killer blow and I knew it at the time. Phaneuf was ok given the money sent out, but Brassard was also a horrific trade.

What I see is a team that makes trades for the sake of a few million, then they throw in draft picks for a few million more. Then they sign players trending down to huge contacts. Start the rebuild and accept that for the next two years we have already given our draft picks away to boost a team from 30th to 28th.

 

[DaveMatthew]

but if we trade many of our players, i would assume we would get plenty of 1st round picks in 2019 draft.

I wouldn't be so sure.

You'd get one or two in a package for Karlsson, but he's only going to go to a good team (a team he'd sign an extension with), and would only make them better, so you're looking at a pick that's probably in the 20-30.

You might get one for Duchene, but are you really going to trade him this fast? And you can maybe get a late 1st for Brassard at the deadline this year from a playoff team.

You're not getting a 1st rounder for any of Phaneuf, Ryan, Thompson, Burrows, Ceci, etc.

To do a ground up rebuild, you need several high first round picks to pan out. See Toronto (Matthews, Marner, Nylander), Chicago (Toews, Kane), Pittsburgh (Crosby, Malkin).

But even that's not a guarantee... see Buffalo (Eichel, Reinhart), Florida (Barkov, Huberdeau, Ekblad), Edmonton (Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov, Hall).

 

[albator71]

I wouldn't be so sure.

You'd get one or two in a package for Karlsson, but he's only going to go to a good team (a team he'd sign an extension with), and would only make them better, so you're looking at a pick that's probably in the 20-30.

You might get one for Duchene, but are you really going to trade him this fast? And you can maybe get a late 1st for Brassard at the deadline this year from a playoff team.

You're not getting a 1st rounder for any of Phaneuf, Ryan, Thompson, Burrows, Ceci, etc.

To do a ground up rebuild, you need several high first round picks to pan out. See Toronto (Matthews, Marner, Nylander), Chicago (Toews, Kane), Pittsburgh (Crosby, Malkin).

But even that's not a guarantee... see Buffalo (Eichel, Reinhart), Florida (Barkov, Huberdeau, Ekblad), Edmonton (Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov, Hall).

Yes well that 1st rounder in the Turris/Duchene trade was a stupid move by Dorion

 

[Neiler]

It's hard to believe it's come to this. We can't score. We can't win. Collectively here we sit writing pages and pages of stuff trying to make sense of this. Taking about dealing the greatest defenseman since Bobby Orr. Talking about scrapping the entire core of the team.

Who among us would have known the effect losing Chris Wideman would have.

 

[Uchiha]

We could rebuild if we base a deal around EK for Draisatl + Puljujärvi.

Puljujärvi - Drasitl - Svechnikov
Hoffman - Duchene - Stone
Perron - Pageau - White

Trade Brassard/Smith/Ceci ++ for Defence and a young forward

Get rid of: Ryan/Phaneuf/Burrows/Pyatt/Dumomt/Thompson

 

[Cloud]

And if we gut the team and trade Karlsson, Hoffman, Brassard, etc, we'll probably be even worse in 18/19, but have no chance at drafting the next big thing - Jack Hughes. Great. Thanks Dorion.[/QUOTE]

If they trade Karlsson, Hoffman and Brassard I'm pretty sure they'll have their first round pick back along with a couple other first round picks...then again it is Dorion, so....