Prospect Info: Alexander Holtz (#7 pick - 2020 draft)
- Thread starter LastWordArmy
- Start date
- Status
Statistical modeling without visual or contextual analysis is also silly. It's like taking a close-up photo of a coarse, black hair and trying to convince everyone that it's Bigfoot.
But it's so much easier to develop a model, scrape stats off of league websites, and make pretty charts about who's gonna be good.
Haha! It's funny, though. I try not to get involved in the analytics argument because I think analytics are terrific when used in tandem with contextual analyses of players.
The problem is with the litany of "hockey writers" who literally watch the Kardashians instead of the hockey game, then go look at a chart the next day and think they know more about what happened in the hockey game than the people who actually watched the hockey game.
SteveCangialosi123
Registered User
Pretty sure that guy still thinks Gusev can be a great player based off his model. Even after seeing how bad his skating is.
Eggtimer
Registered User
Stats and game tape don't show things like how a player handles himself on and off the ice. Player X could be amazing statistically , but be a "me first" type player who doesn't listen to the coaching staff or is engaged on the bench talking to his linemates , listening to his coach asking for pointers , going over game film to improve , working out in the gym whenever possible . Skates over to the ref after a goal to make sure he gets credit for the point etc etc etc.
There is some legitimately good thinking behind some of those models, I don't mean to be too dismissive, but there are so many wrinkles going on with young player development, numbers alone will just never be able to tell the story. I mean, you look at Alex Holtz, the first half he had, the second half he had, and now this playoff game, and can you really say that his stat line describes his season?
Have you watched any of Will Scouch's videos this year? He's changed his methods a little bit, especially with respect to how he looks at defenseman, and he's got videos for Jake Martin and Simon Edvinsson up on his channel.
Random question, 100% hypothetical and most likely impossible to answer but I would love to hear your opinion on this. But if you put Mercers compete into Holtz would he be a top 3 pick last draft?
I think Gusev can be a good NHLer still, he just won't ever get that chance. He never looked comfortable this season - his timing was off. Gusev is a precision player who never looked precise, and no one's going to take a chance on him now at the money he'll be looking for.
As it relates to Holtz's season - players get better and worse by numbers all the time for reasons we can't quite guess at, and this takes the guesswork out of it. It's going to be wrong sometimes, wildly wrong. I still believe it would beat the market, and it would definitely beat the market 10 years ago.
If Djurgården lose today so they season is over. Is the quarantine 1 week or 2 weeks if you are coming from Europe to USA?
I am just thinking that if Holtz season ends today and he would sign right after that contract with Devils so how long would it take that he could start practice with the team.
Edit: ahhh is there also that stupid visa thing what takes a lot of time?
I am just thinking that if Holtz season ends today and he would sign right after that contract with Devils so how long would it take that he could start practice with the team.
Edit: ahhh is there also that stupid visa thing what takes a lot of time?
That would make Holtz at least better player. Impossible say would he be top3 but maybe Detroit would have taken Holtz over Raymond or am I very wrong? Maybe @StevenToddIves can help us?
RememberTheName
Conductor of the Schmid Bandwagon
Djurgardens vs Frolunda game 3 on right now.
Djurgardens just had a powerplay, and I am not even joking, but it seemed like their entire strategy was, don't let Holtz get the puck in this slot. They were not going to let ANYTHING get into him.
Djurgardens just had a powerplay, and I am not even joking, but it seemed like their entire strategy was, don't let Holtz get the puck in this slot. They were not going to let ANYTHING get into him.
Not top 3, but last year's top 3 was ridiculously good.
Also, I like Holtz's compete. It's just not an off-the-charts elite quality like it is with Mercer. Dawson Mercer's compete level is quite simply as good as it gets. Maybe a better question would be where we would have ranked Mercer if he had Tim Stutzle's skating ability.
Well, my counterpoint would be that we can guess at what makes a player get better and worse -- by actually watching them play. This is not to say that you do not, of course -- but occasional hockey writers who have only found the time to watch one or two Devils games all year will have some pretty absurd opinions based on lazily relying on purely analytic models of context.
Gusev surely had a chance to make some sort of impact at the NHL level -- he was certainly a decent player last season. But ultimately, it was his skating limitations and 200-foot play which lowered him in Coach Ruff's estimation. I expect him back in the KHL next year, but you never know.
That would make Holtz at least better player. Impossible say would he be top3 but maybe Detroit would have taken Holtz over Raymond or am I very wrong? Maybe @StevenToddIves can help us?
Raymond is still a "line driver" while Holtz is still a "finisher" -- I think this was crucial in Detroit's thinking when they took Raymond.
So when it comes to forwards in particular, you usually have sub categories.
1. Line Drivers 2. Playmakers 3. Finishers 4. Puck Retrievers 7. Two-way 6. Defensive 7. Bad
Obviously players can fit into more then on category. While Ovechkin is the greatest Finisher we have ever seen he certainly is a line driver and an underrated playmaker. When it comes to prospects outside of a select few most players will make the league based off of the one thing they thrive at. Based off of all of this would say Line Drivers are the most impactful?
Looks like Holtz might be applying for a Visa soon.
Devils731
Registered User
- Jun 23, 2008
- 12,436
- 16,752
I feel like the signed deal will come quick. Maybe tomorrow?
So, that Patterson film stats analysis is flawed? I had Bigfoot in my mid-teens for this draft. His younger brother, Mediumfoot went high in his junior league import draft and the NHLe on him is already through the roof.
I believe his ELC would slide.
Devils731
Registered User
- Jun 23, 2008
- 12,436
- 16,752
On the other hand, if the team thinks he needs almost a full AHL season next year, and the year after would be his rookie season in the NHL then you may want to burn the first year right now so that you can sign his next contract after 1 NHL season rather than 2.
I do think it will slide as I doubt he plays 7 NHL games this season.
Zajacs Bowl Cut
Lets Go Baby
as long as he signs his contract, yes.
- Status
